TBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of...
Can't overrule the politicization of the FED and the rigging of the numbers. If CPI comes in 3.3 or lower the FED will cut rates. I've also seen darkpool prints for TMF 3xTLT. Here's an insurance play if the FED cuts rates: August 75 calls for TMF are .15. That's a return of 15-20x!! While waiting for the market to shake out. Then I'd run into metals and miners...
On this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish) over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some of those factors. This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell....
TBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a...
TLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023. Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time. Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20. Relative strength trending correlates with price . I...
The idea is on this FAZ 15 minute chart. This is a ply on the idea that a rate cut may get kicked down the road and a rate increase may come into consideration as a result of the report of "sticky inflation".
TLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern. Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value...
TMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated...
Here on a daily chart the ratio of the Bearish Leveraged Financial ETF to its Bullish counterpart is showing to be in a descending parallel channel. The chart is marked with comments about trading considerations of these ratios at a given time. At present, the FAZ is undervalued and should be bought. On the other hand, Bullish FAS, should be either sold if...
TLT on the 15 minute chart in the past two trading sessions consolidated and then fell into a pullback to the support of the anchored mean VWAP. Relative volatility spiked and has now contracted. I see this as a good entry to add to my TLT position having sold a good portion of it three trading days ago when price showed topping wicks outside the fibonacci...
TMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative...
In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets. When I have seen below charts of TVC:US10Y , I have remembered that interview: (Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U ) TVC:US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this...
📣 Hello everyone! I believe that in the next 3-5 months we can get a correction (growth - inverse chart) on TMF. The US 20-year yield of 5.388% on October 23 could be the medium-term maximum, or we are already very close to it. To do this, it is necessary to observe more, since the trend on the same TMF chart has not yet been broken. Be careful and keep a close...
TBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital. The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above...
TMV on the one-hour chart tested two standard deviations above the mean VWAP in both late May and early July it fell to one standard deviation below VWAP but then rose sharply into beyond the two standard deviations line ( thick red ) ascending into a YTD high. I believe that this is due to the recent federal debt creditworthiness downgrade. The threatened...
On the one-hour chart, TMF a triple ETF of long-expiration treasuries has finally completed its downtrend or ten days given more bearish momentum with the federal debt downgrade of creditworthiness as well as the rise of BRICS as a reserve currency. Three indicators show bullish divergence with a MACD cross under the histogram. The 30 minute RS line rising...
TMF as shown on a 15 minute chart shows TMF in consolidation at the beginning of the weeks followed by a downtrend when the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud with little buyers confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US...
TLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little...