US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader!
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday.
💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note.
🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13.
🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure.
We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex:
(Click on chart below)
In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top...
Trade with care
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Tnote
A good time to buy 10 year t-noes in 30 min frameGOOD MORNING,
after the last short trading range, that seems like a semi diamond finally we are over the VWAP and we have a big strength of buyers right now although the candle is red they are here so the chance of an uptrend in the next 30 min nearly 75% due to big volume and the safety we have from the VWAP.
contact me if you want me for any analysis
check my profile to see my "correct" predictions in the last few days
GOOD LUCK
twitter:0uchaib
3 JANUARY 2022 10 YEAR T-NOTE DAILY BIAS ANALYSISSummary :
Sideways market
Confluence :
-10&20 EMA (DAILY) = BEARISH
-BEARISH SMS/FAILURE SWING
- 1D ICT BEARISH FRESH ORDER BLOCK
- MOST RECENT LIQUIDITY RUN ON MID TERM SWING HIGH (DAILY)
Conclusion :
-Bias = Bearish possible bullish even testing the 1D FRESH BEARISH OB , Bullish for Dollar, Bearish for Major Foreign Currencies (EUR,GBP, etc.)
-Target = EQL
-Probability = LOW, still very biased because it's still the first day in 2022, t-note still delayed, market still have to create a setup to go somewhere. Well it's safer to have a bias about the market condition. and trade later when the market unfold a high probability setup.
-Suggestions = Find another confluence, in the dollar index & the pairs that you want to trade, Higher Time Frame Or Lower, wait till Tuesday/Wednesday.
10 YEAR T-NOTE HTF ANALYSIS 11/2 SESSIONSummary :
Price trading lower, creating new yearly low, and it reverse to trade higher. However it created an insignificant low, creating a new equal lows (liquidity) bellow. The price doesn't break the higher swing (BMS) and created confluence to trade lower. But we have to be careful cuz it's still trading on a range, so it's possible for the price to trade higher, but for this time it's safe to assume it's gonna trade lower.
Confluence :
-10&20 EMA (DAILY) = BEARISH
- BEARISH DAILY BMS
- 1D BEARISH OB + RTO
- 1D ICT BEARISH BREAKER
- MOST RECENT LIQUIDITY RUN ON SHORT TERM SWING HIGH + STOP HUNT (SH)
Conclusion :
-Bias = Bearish, Bullish for Dollar, Bearish for Major Foreign Currencies (EUR,GBP, etc.)
-Target = Old Low (In this case Yearly Low)
-Probability = MEDIUM
-Suggestions = Find another confluence, in the dollar index & the pairs that you want to trade, Higher Time Frame Or Lower
5 Year T-Note Futures Heading Lower Towards 123Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZF1!) .
Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. zf1! has been channeling lower after making a high of 124’08 on July 8th. First low was observed on July 13th around the 123’18”5 price level and a lower high is seen around 124 on July 15th. ZF1! Is expected to make a lower low at 123’14”5 in the short term.
Technical Indicators
ZF1! is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50. Moreover, the KST recently had a negative crossover.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZF1!is trading around 123’25”2. The medium-term target price is observed around the 123’14”5 price level. A stop loss is set at 124. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.54.
DOUBLE BOTTOM if you see this continue like in the heading we are looking at the united states 10 year or other known as 10 year T note . we have tracked this chart before on the way down as we have seen in the previous GAP now since then we are seeing a market possibly rebounding and heading back to the northside of town follow for your self and make your own charts here on trading view.
SELL ZN1 in the next RED VOLUMEHello Friends
*****
the ZN1 market is in an uptrend
followed by a green volume increase at the bottom
and wick candle at the top of vwap it means that the market is going to bear
=> it's a sell signal
so you can sell and get out in the next red volume
THANK YOU
ATSELECTION