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TNX

Clear Leading Diagonal - time for a pullback - then up, up, awayThe minute leading diagonal has clearly broken the larger downward wave, which ended in a larger ending diagonal... Expect a short term pullback to the wave iv level and then a continued rise at least 1.618 times the length of this first leading diagonal wave... Short term pullback would be consistent with a modest recovery in equities early next week before a larger sell-off in equities as the treasury rates resume their rise...
TLong
by broughro
TNX: 10 Year Treasury Note: Longer Term Outlook10 Year T Note TNX 'Nothing trends like long term rates' is perhaps one of the oldest stock market adages there is, along with 'buy the rumor, sell the event'... Things don't change much because people don't change much at the core, beneath the veneer. Fear and greed affect us just the same way that they affected our fathers and grandfathers, pretty much. The patterns we make are pretty similar too. Just the time factor changes - making fractal patterns that we see repeating in almost all markets at different points in time. The 10 year T Note is proably the daddy of all charts, beating even Google for power and ultimate dominance. No trend is as powerful and long lasting as this one. 8 or 9 major waves down over 31 years took the 10Y from a high at 158 to a low at 13.95. It then doubled in price and more to 30.75 before falling away again to make a good double bottom/loss of downside momentum 4 years later (mid 2016 low). Since the double bottom it's rallied back to the same levels at 30.75 as it touched the upper parallel at the same point in time. This is a key level as the chart shows. The trend is turning back up. The President, no matter how much he dislikes the trend here, cannot stop it. Eventually it's going to break the upper parellel and start its ascent to 39.15 initially and then 52.4. The trend is unlikely to stop there for long though. The next significant resistance lies at 69.20, and then 101.54 above here. It may not look like it right now, just as talking of a 14 low when it was trading at 158 back in 1981 seemed crazy then - but given enough time this will eventually trade back at 101 once it breaks the upper parallel. Once wage inflation starts to become the norm: people expect another wage increase the next year. For 10 years and more this has never figured - commodity inflation post 2009 was easily absorbed. Wage inflation is not so easily absorbed. It leads eventually to over-inflated wage expectations and starts to run out of control over time. Last time around it led to interest rates at 16%. Only time will tell how much or little we have learned and since forgotton. TNX 10 Year Note
TLong
by sumastardon
The Bond Yield SituationI just was surfing charts and wanted to point this out, as the main theme from the media and analysts is that yields are going up. Period. I agree in that I think rates will be higher if measured in years or decades, but shorter term, they are at stiff resistance. This monthly chart going back to the mid 1960's has a very clear downward trend line that we recently tested and failed. Since we're talking decades-long trends, it will not be overcome easily or quickly, barring some catastrophe by the FedRes or an implosion of the economy. The latter seems unlikely given the data, but the former is certainly possible. That's not to say I expect them to screw up, but just that it seems to be the more likely factor that would greatly impact the US Treasury market. Anyways, take it for what it's worth, but the "rising rate environment" mantra is not as written in stone as some proclaim. We'll revisit this in a few decades to see what happened. ;)
T
by EchoAlphaBravo
Charts That Make You Go Hmmm... (SPY/TNX)Thank you to all my followers that take the time to read this with me. Some historical background on the importance of the 10 year Treasury Note Yield Index. (Hey, we all need to brush up on it from time to time) This is a ratio chart of SPY/TNX with a 9 year trend. As is the case with most charts related to interest rates, it's pretty technically perfect. I've always found this interesting because this is a market that is almost 100% Fundamentally driven, yet produces the cleanest technicals, but I digress. I just stumbled across this ratio chart, as interest rates are increasingly on my radar. I think the chart is self-explanatory for the technicians out there. Lastly, let's play 'Guess-That-Pattern' on the weekly 9-Year chart. Good luck to all.
SP:SPX
by RHTrading
1
US 10-year T-notes. Downside could be limited. Target corrected.This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this also fortifies the support. So better close shorts there.
T
by aibek
Short Squeeze for the Treasury bearsTypically I have seen that when everyone is on one side of the trade its quite easy for the market to make fools of the participants. The speculative short position on US treasuries, specifically the 10 year, is massive (and for good reason). While I remain a longer bear view on these treasuries I think we might end up seeing a short squeeze before we see 3% yields. The 10 year is showing some signs this could accelerate and hurt alot of bears who need to cover their positions.
T
by skyman9025
Rate 'Normalization' This chart shows the ML investment grade corporate bond index yield vs the trailing SPX earnings yield (E/P ratio). From 2004-2007 the investment grade bond index and SPX earnings yield appear balanced near equal valuation. The red box from 2007 to 2009 marks the peak of the market to 2009 when the SPX sunk to recession lows. Note the following period of QE when the Fed fund policy of near zero lowered bond yields relative to equity earnings yield. Lately it appears that the SPX trailing E/P ratio and IG corporate bond yields appear to have finally 'normalized' and returned back to a range of equal valuation. However, investors can reasonably expect increased volatility ahead as the Fed begins this next phase of QT. The Fed forecasts a rise in the overnight lending rate and continued unloading of the balance sheet. This is likely to stress the equity and investment grade bond valuations which are currently 'priced to perfection'. Chart data: 'QUANDL:ML/USEY'-'QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_EARNINGS_YIELD_MONTH'
M
by dime
USD interest rate growth could be limited by previous top.At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this chart. Wave 5 of (C) already has reached the target zone and approaches the former top at the 3.04% where the wave 5 = 0.786 of waves 1-3. It is quite possible that when we would reach that area above 3 pct something in the economy could cry out - stop it! Let's see!
T
by aibek