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TNX

USD interest rate growth could be limited by previous top.At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this chart. Wave 5 of (C) already has reached the target zone and approaches the former top at the 3.04% where the wave 5 = 0.786 of waves 1-3. It is quite possible that when we would reach that area above 3 pct something in the economy could cry out - stop it! Let's see!
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by aibek
10 YR Treasury Note Yield 1993 - 2018Low interest rates. With more ghost malls, more shuttering/cutting back of corporate stores (Sears, Macy's, Old Navy, etc.), with wages down, real-estate up (not for long), food inflation up/serving sizes of containers smaller (shrinkflation)... I hope interest rates aren't bumped up (home loans/car loans/credit card rates). The stock market will dive soon I think. When it does let's hope that more investors rush into crypto as a safe haven and push prices per coin way up. Perhaps crypto melts first (current situation) and if the market tanks they may look attractive for investors. On another note are there any CD's available anymore at 5%? Haven't seen one of those in awhile. The other day I listened to a call center offering me 0.3% on a business checking account. 0.3% --->WEAK! We shall see.
TVC:TNX
by OneManTrading
TNX: Ten Year T Note and Super long term trend in interest ratesTEN year T Note: TNX The Super Long-Trem Trend in Rates - Right Side/Wrong Side Ms Yellen is scarred by her being accused of messing up the markets in mid 2015 and causing a 6 month 21% decline (nothing to do with her in fact, it was more to do with Nasdaq double topping in mid 2015 at the old 2000 cycle high - exactly same time from high in 2000 to the high reached in 2007 added on in time to that 2007 high gets you to mid 2015 high (actually it's 10 days out but has nothing to do with Yellen, but the lazy press used it to provide a reason for a decline... a cycle is just way too vague and esoteric for them to understand, they need a story after all to sell their 'news' to those who wish to know what happened yesterday). So Yellen is scarred. She should be raising rates today - if she doesn't she she's a wimp, but although her speech and Q/A will be cheerful and the markets will like it as it goes on most likely, it has a good chance of ending with a sting in the tail/tale. Inflation has never been a worry really since 1980 - there have been intermittent scares along the way but the trend has been relentlessly down since rates hit a high at 15.5% in 1980 - this was caused by wage inflation and led to the demise of unbridled union power (praise be, something good came of it both in US and UK) And in that long period wage inflation has subdued and been kept low by immigration trends which are themselves now being addressed in both countries. Long long story short earnings are now rising at 4.1% and will keep rising...it's this that will trip the Fed into tightening more than it currrently expects. We are entering a LONG cycle of rising rates and wages caught in a spiral that ends with much higher rates than anyone ever expected at the outset. After long periods of stability the Fed and BoE tend to buy into the theme that they are back in control of the 'cycle' and to an extent, they are, as the cycle and therefore the markets run on the benign side of the curve. But as time passes they begin to lose control (they never really had it anyway, just the illusion of control which the cycle has given them) - and the cycle slowly turns from benign to malign. We are at that point now, very early on in the turn. It will likely end with rates at 15 to 16% - but it will take a generation to get there. In this way each generation repeats the mistakes of the 2 generations that went before it. It is these 'mistakes' that make markets behave in cyclical ways - if there were no mistakes markets would rise in straight lines. They don't and never have done. Just look at Bitcoin today.
TLong
by sumastardon
Short Bonds & Long Copper | Copper/Gold vs. 10yr YieldsIt looks like the Bond market hasn't priced in growth or we're going to see a nasty reversion trade in the materials sector and a bond pop. The Copper / Gold pair is a great proxy for inflation due to the divergent properties of the 2 metals. Copper is purely an industrial metal and a proxy for inflationary growth so the 10yr reacts correspondingly. Gold, on the other hand is a precious metal and trades similar to a monetary instrument and is loosely correlated to the long-end from the inverse yield relationship.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by mattcook
More Downside For TNXThe TNX is currently correcting the 93.43% up move in the mid of 2016. To make long story short, we want to buy tnx at around 1.99% IF it can manage to break the current low at around 2.17%. Consequently, with a break of the low of 2.17% and TNX reaching 1.99% we believe that the correction in the indices or not over yet. So in case of a leg lower in TNX we expect indices to follow the downside path of TNX. Why we expect this is because of intermarket analysis reasons. We cant go into detail because we want to protect our clients privilege. Hope that helps. Cheers, Your Secrets2Trade Team
TVC:TNXLong
by secrets2trade
Ominous signs aheadMultiple red flags appearing on the horizon. 1. VIX has taken off while SPX is still pretty much range bound. It means investors are increasingly getting jittery about the elevated equities even though the equities haven't corrected as much. Any small trigger could possibly initiate accelerated fall in this scenario. 2. US 10Y yields (not shown here) are down to 2.29 at the time of writing. That compared to high of around 2.6 3. Noise coming out White House is not very encouraging or comforting. There seems to be no clarity on what the admin's priorities are and whether they can actually deliver on those 4. SPX has had a beautiful run touching the 1.618 fib level from the previous rally. Seems like to good place to start consolidation and it did. So to conclude, this may not be a raging sell signal yet. But probably a good time to take profits off the table. Risk money can definitely chase short side though.
TVC:SPXShort
by Kaustubh