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TNX

Yields are on the verge of breaking-out.In log mode, we can clearly see the trend of yields dating back to the late 1970s. Consistently lower yields on both the 2 year and the 10 year government bonds. Representative of both the long and short duration bonds and their yields. What we can see happening here is a breakout of this downtrend. We are already at between 2.5-3% on the 10YR and the 2YR yield. The Federal Reserve's planned tightening schedule combined with the inflation panic will drive both of these metrics up into the 3% range and beyond. The only way yields could reverse here is through seeing a risk-off move from equities into bonds which would drive up bond prices and in turn, drive down yields. Similarly, higher-yields could tempt investors into bonds at a point in which many stocks have already entered a bear market and many are set to underperform. Market breadth is set to shrink dramatically as equity bulls focus their efforts into a narrower set of large-cap stocks. The FED has an interest rates decision next week amd therefore this quarter will be crucial in determining the direction of the markets.
TVC:US02Y
by RogueEconomics
$TNX Hyperinflation here we come.. The TNX has created a solid Hekin Ashi Resistance level in January of 2014 at 3.034% that has been tested multiple times on the yearly chart. This level is our first short to mid term target on the TNX looking to breakout from a decades long downtrend. Should the TNX break out above this level subsequent areas of resistance are circled as targets in white. This being a Bullish box on the Indicator would suggest that we will likely take that top target resistance created in Jan 1983 at 10.12% Should the shit really hit the fan, we have supply at 13.99 % circled in red. Hold on to your Butts..
TVC:TNXLong
by Midgar-
Unchartered Territory-TNXAnyone who thinks they know for sure what's going to happen in this market should follow price action very, very closely. TNX just closed the month of March by very bullishly crossing the monthly cloud. Since the 1980's interest rates have been in a down trend. TNX could have crossed the monthly cloud bullishly on a couple of occasions but it never had the power to do what it did this month. What happens now? Here are the times TNX could have had the strength to cross the monthly cloud bullishly but it got rejected: Here is this months action: Looking at it from a different angle...below is the monthly chart of ZN. When interest rates rise, ZN futures goes down. Does a 6% Interest Rate sound crazy? Don't break that neckline!
TVC:TNXLong
by Vixtine
7
TNX - Daily / The Break of SymmetrySince July we began suggesting the ROC large break in early 2021 was a precursor to a decades-long reversal in the Bond Market. A Historic event seemingly lost on Convention. The longer-term downtrend can easily be observed in both Weekly and Monthly Charts - within those 2 TF's you will see the Long Term Channels UTL. ______________________________________________________________________ I pay a great deal of attention to Symmetry and Time, as it is as important as Price. ______________________________________________________________________ We can see in the chart above, 10 Year Yields decisively broke out as our pivot for higher was 1.961. Initially, it was front-run by 1 Pip during the Pre-Open - for bonds the action begins at 8 AM EST. The rest is history. Extensions will trade into March IMHO. Buyers since the FAKE 153 TOSS have been beaten down. Many are still insisting on remaining in the Bid, Buy the Dippers @ 153 / 151 / 149 / 147 / 143 / 142 / 139 / 136 continue to walk themselves into continuing losses. The Waffle House opened for Drive-Thru and the parking lot pileup ensued. ________________________________________________________________________ Forward CASH is not only being discounted for 007s, but for Corporate Jumbos aka Mega Caps. A clear sign of Depression 10X from August 2020 - a leading indicator by 18 months historically. Right on TIME - March 2022. __________________________________________________________________________ You cannot fix stupid you can, however - you can take it's $. Rates will continue to persist to the Larger time frames @ 3.5%. This is the point of truncation late this year when 5/5 concludes for the Equity Complex at New ATHs. Even the TLT baggies will gain small relief as all JUNK is hoisted higher in one final Tulip Phase. A multi-year Bear Market will ensue, collaterals will be "Reset" and Bonds, as we long warned become perpetual. Fluidity / Mobility matter most. Unfortunately, the vast majority will remain snared.
T
by HK_L61
TNX - Back to the Box10 Yr Yields are catching the FED YCC shove at present, it's feeble but there. Powell's Backtrack yesterday was frankly pathetic. "Rates will remain near Zero for the near term" blah blah blah... idiocy. ___________________________________________________________________ The Stock Market is the Economy is what this fraud meant to say, but could not. One day, he will. Until then, the DX and TNX are going to continue to Range and Consolidate. There's another accident ahead, regardless of the protestations of the Bond Gurus, 007s and Bandits. They never seem to catch the Drift, always buying and claiming the New Bond Bull is beginning. After 4.5 decades it's over fanbois. If you can't sort it out... it's your Capital being eaten alive by Inflation.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
3
TNX - 10Yr Yields Sell Offers and Bond VX / Trouble Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction. The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the market volatility of March 2020. Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen porch door open for a quicker than-anticipated pace of rate increases. The Dot Plot is wiggling in excitement. IN reality, the FED will begin to Temper expectations. It is what they do - Lie Cheat Steal / Delay. 10 Yr Yields have seen another fantastic ROC-driven Spike which advanced well ahead of the Pre-Spring Meltup in 2021. __________________________________________________________________ TNX will provide a very large indication as to how the preset Wedge on the ES/NQ resolve, likely this week... Keep it in purview at all times, sudden violent reactions are to be expected.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
Real interests at historical low - S&P500/M2SL at big resistanceHi folks! I just tried to take a broader perspective on things again, and wanted to take a look at the pricing of the S&P500 relative to the M2 Money Supply, as well as the effect of real interest rates on markets. Note that the orange line here is the negative of the real interest rates - that is, . My takes are these: (1) The S&P500 relative to the M2 (broad -i.e. including credit) money supply is at a critical level given historical data - only once have this level of resistance broken (during the dotcom bubble). (2) The real interest rate have NEVER been this negative - with current rates even beating those of the 70´s and 80´s. (3) (Not shown in chart) The treasury have been falling constantly since the 80´s, and have nowhere to go to the downside ATM. (4) The critical support of the S&P500/M2SL lies approximately at the break-even for real interest rates if we compare their development from the 60. I strongly believe that the real interest will move towards zero eventually - either the Fed and the governments manage to curb inflation rather quickly through credit regulations, taxes and interest rate hikes, or the markets will just ignore it in the end and dump their bonds (no one will hold bonds at a certain loss of 5.6% or more in annual terms - that is madness!). When this occurs, the stock market will take a huge dump - even compared to the M2 money supply (which will most likely decrease in the time to come!). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well!
SP:SPX
by TheDots
TNX - Clear indication of a Pullback10 Year Yeidls should begin to pull back, this will provide a welcome wind for TECH into EPS Season. Bond VX is retreating as well. RSI/STO Summation indicates an overbought condition. ____________________________________________________ Seemingly - this implies our thesis for the Recac has come into the Trade and was supported by the Short Squeeze and Gamma Call Squeeze after the Put Close. Jumbos want to make $, it is axiomatic the ranges will expand and Profits can be made on ALL sides of the Ranges. It is that simple.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
2
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / An important ChartThe importance of ZN as an Instrument cannot be overstated. It has been extremely technical and Reliable in assisting us in forecasting Rate Mid Curve and provided the ROC's for TNX. Today's MAcro Data begins with the CPI @ 8:30 AM EST using the new Base Effect from the BLS. ______________________________________________________ CPI is projected to be 4%. Food prices have already increased substantially into 2022 as we indicated Mid-Q4 2021 - Pordiucer were going to begin passing along increases at an average rate of 20-23%. Energy continues to Rise as do Commodities, on balance, across the Board. M2 continues to move higher, as does the Fed's Balance Sheet. _______________________________________________________ The reaction to the CPI this morning will provide direction for the Indexes the balance of the week. Pricing Power is being passed along to end-users (consumers) at a time when the Federal Reserve is indicating they are about to begin an aggressive reduction in Liquidity and an accelerated pace of increases to the Fed Funds Rate. We have seen back to back ALGO driven increases in the ES / NQ / YM and indicated 10 Yr Yields would pullback ~ 1.81% (1.808 was close enough). 2021/2022 measured move is now .998 to 1.808 - a near doubling of the Mid Curve. ________________________________________________________ The Bond "safety" Trade wasn't entirely wrong until the Curve began to work its magic. We indicated in July Rates would begin rising again into the end of 2021. Where the Bond Buters lost sight of the Safety Trade was quite simple - Convention holds only when the Yield Curve is steepening. As YCC gave way to a FED backstop where the recycling ballooned the Fed's Balance Sheet and Auction after failed Auctions began to appear beginning at the long end of the Curve. My Thesis proved 100% correct, then as now. We anticipate a reaction to Mid Curve on today's ReCalc. Safe Trading.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
2
TNX - Monthly Historical Chart 40 Year ChannelThe Event which will provide relief to the Bond Complex is the Federal Reserve walking back its most recent Policy Statement. The Short End of the Curve witnessed an aggressive move of 6-9 Bips. This doesn't appear to be much on the surface of it. Unfortunately, it is. ______________________________________________________________________ The Yield Curve is not effectively communicating at either end and throughout the Curve. Far too much is made of prior Paradigms, with a real lack of understanding of the Glacial movements in the Bond Complex. 40 years is a long time - an unparalleled Bull Market in Binds coming off the Volcker Era after the Whip Inflation Now Era. Price in trend - it remains in Trebbt as the sheer largess of the Bond Market is 11X that of Equities. _______________________________________________________________________ The Risks remain to Rates rising. Hopefully - there is not a disorderly eruption as it would wreak havoc in ways we have not seen in a very long time.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61