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TNX

TNX - The Event we've been waiting for since July We have repeatedly indicated the "Everything Must Go Sale" would begin once we saw 10 Year Note Yields Cross 1.645 and then move beyond 1.71 to 1.76 and onto 2.12% All asset Classes being sold is NOT something the Majority of Investors remotely understand or believe it possible. Preferring Correlations and Inverse Correlations to remain the Norm. It isn't and the September Sell-off appears to have been forgotten. Not surprising, memories are short, convictions are strong. Price does not care what you "believe" - rather it demonstrates the convictions of your beliefs. Belief in the 11X Bond Complex... remains at all-time highs. Return of depreciating Captial is favored to Equities which continue to be the perceived Inflation Hedge. The circular Logic is a complete Sh_t Mix of Mass Delusions as participants will discover one the Next Great Unwind begins. Everyone losses a hand. _______________________________________________________________ With last week's one Day Wonder spiking @ nearly 10% while the DX began to move over 95... RCO's are again heating up. _______________________________________________________________ We indicated the Infrastructure Bill would end up @ $1 Trillion after all the non-sense - Ultimately it was the FEDs handlers who reduced the increased threat of a Bond Market Accident. Suggesting DC piddle into a far less Aggressive Final number, Rates were tamed down, preventing an even larger protest from the 007s. Monday, President Biden signs into Law - $ 1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill. AKA - another Giveaway to Insiders. _______________________________________________________________ How much time does this Buy for the Equity Complex, we shall see. It will become yet another nail in Confidence Coffin as Inflation continues to Beat Expectations. _______________________________________________________________ Q4 begins to see squaring of Position for yeat end begin into December. With Notional Bets to a Strong finish to 2021 for appearance's sake, there IS something out there... that will blindside the markets. _______________________________________________________________ The 30 Year Auctions Failure... did not go unnoticed.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
TLT - ROCs @ Mid Curve007s have been back announcing the latest "Sure Thing" in Scottish Moors. Just bring back the Wood Paneling, please. We would appreciate Steve leaving our Front Yard. _______________________________________________ TLT has not closed over its recent Highs. All Bets at the Flamingo's Roulette Wheel are on 33. _______________________________________________ With the 2nd highest ROC in a few weeks @ +7.75%... Sightings of "Wrong Way Conway" @ Gilligans Isle/ We'll Oppose - as when we hear Metal to Metal contact, loud crunching sounds, glass breaking, blood, and bags of Frito Lays strewn about... Train Wreck.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
6
TNX - RSI remains above 50The 10 Year Note Yield, in prior downtrends would provide the RSI in the Negative well below 50. ARCA, as always is used to Prop Up the FANG GANG. But BANG, the die is cast. Anticipating a reversal in the 10 Yr Yield into the FOMC, which creates and enforces the SELL in TECH. EPS, as indicated months ago, would be a complete disaster... Delivered. NQ ES YM - 4 Gaps below Symmetry mirrors September 15, 2021 reversal setting up. 2% - 2.12% - 2.37% Price Objectives on Break of 1.765
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
TNX - MeanwhileWhile Higher Taxes for the Muddle Class are on the way. The Billionaires Boys Club sees the Stimmy as their Salvation. Higher Taxes? Only if I can get First Abuser Rights to 10X what I'll be required to pay for "Them".... The Bond Market believes the Stimulus - "Further Recovery, Infrastructure, Spending Bill" will get things on track once it's pared back to $1 Trillion... How do you mend a Broken Global Economy as Yield Curves are flattening around the Globe? You cannot. Global Markets - showing the way. And all those people out of work and resources? F_ck em, appears to be the Path. ____________________________________________________ Have a good evening everyone
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
10
TNX - 10 Year Note Yield / High to Highs FIB Wave ExtensionsThe 10Yr Yield is performing as indicated. The Reversal is trading the Trend Line and FIB Extensions to near perfection. Beyond the 1Hr, which is a better TF to illustrate the Price action - The Daily continues to remain in Strength within the trend. The Trade Plan has a break of the 1.7650 Highs as the Catalyst for the test of the Equity Complex 200SMAs. Given the Complexity of this Counter-Trend, Equites could continue to rise as Yields Rise for the Short Term. _________________________________________________________________________ The current Environment is dis-similar to 2016 when Yields and Equities were rising. Traders cite this as a non-conditional similarity and are using it to Echo. It is entirely dis-similar and not a confirmation by any metric. The Markets in 2016 were fueled by a Tax Cut, a Give-away for the very Wealthy and Corporations. Since March of 2020, Price action has been fueled entirely by the "V" Shaped Recovery narrative - Supported by $10s of Trillions in DEBT - Daylight and Shadow. The Meme's for Buying are far and wide - Fundamentally, they are almost always, without exception - Incorrect - Fundamentals do matter, Debt matters, Solvency matters... This abject degeneracy will meet its maker in 2022 as 5/5 concludes. Never in the History of the US Equity Complex has Factual Reality been this distorted. It will end with the Equities Markets down 50% - 90% IMHO. _________________________________________________________________________ During Powell's Friday discussion, his admission "Inflation is not Transitory, but here to stay longer than the Federal Reserve had Initially indicated..." Any Human purchasing Food & Energy was far ahead of this malaise from Chair Powell. Inflation Fears will need to be calmed for there not to be a Panic event, we indicated it would be Supply Shortages devolving into a 30%+ Price increase. Historically - this is the trigger of prior Inflations throughout History. _________________________________________________________________________ The Hourly indicated it is time to pay attention to a return to Fill at least one of the GAPs below and backtest the lower trendline, the overthrow appears to be short-term exhaustion. This would provide the NQ with room for a retest of the recent highs @ 15483, well short of our Price Objectives Between 15513/17.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
NQ - Priced to Discounted Forward EPSIt is rare when one can have their Cake & Bacon. NQ performs this feat with Aplomb. It is an amazing effort, the same around every EPS Season. Lowering Guidance repeatedly while failing to make it widespread panic. Discounted Future Earnings via Yields, while managing to swim itself out the Abyss... remarkable. Semiconductors had an Abysmal Q3. INTC's report was a comedy all its own, after lowering guidance to Analysts 3 times... they finally managed a number @ 1.11 for the Chinese Wall, only to exceed it by 60 Cents @ 1.71 - Surprise @ 53.61%. Whee... but but but.... it was Wang Chung'd during Globex. The result of this nonsense - INTC was sold wholesale from 56.07 to 50.75. - www.youtube.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
TNX - A break of 1.645 during GlobexThis break, although outside of RTH, is indeed important. It signals a retracement potential, but more importantly it opens the Higher Price Objective @ 1.71 - 1.76. The Equity Complex is pretending the "what me worry trade" once again. We are concerned, as it represents a very large issue for the Equity Complex should the ROCs continue to build. All eyes should be on the Yield Curve's MidPoint. It can imply a rather large selloff. Today thru Tomorrow has all the hallmarks of problems developing.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
5
TXN - 10 Year Note YieldWe Indicated the 10 Year Note Yield would initially retest the Highs several months back. We can see the APEX resides at the Prior Highs. The effort will be a multi-week affair, although as ROCs continue to build we are beginning to see Wider spread within the FIB Wave, indicating caution at a Resistance of 1.645%. The DX is benefitting from this as GOLD begins to SELL once again. It's time to pay attention very closely to the Bond Complex - it remains at Risk for now and the unexpected is shaking the confidence of a great number of Retail Traders who piled back into TLT on the aspirations of yet another Large Bull run to 172. Probability, 007s - is not on your side. The coming Reaction will provide some very real indications over the coming weeks. We can see the effects upon the NQ this morning. As 8 AM ET approaches, let's see how the Bond Complex begins its Position for the Week ahead. New2021 Lows for ZN as Financials appear to have made a Double Top. Trade safe out there, speculators. The past is not Prologue.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
3
TNX - 10Yr Yield /'Come on IN Equity Dip Buyers"The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no predatory creatures lurking about. Please ignore the Trend. Our assumptions include: The Herd is always Correct. CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect". Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO. TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a small bump on the road until 172. Debt doesn't matter, It's in the "Future" - we never subscribe to the idea of "Back to the Future" as our overlords are merely us from the Future... We are cocksure confident - "This is It~!" No more down, only up, the SELL is Over. No one would dare SELL Bonds here with Negative Real Returns. No one would demand higher rates, ever... regardless of the insurmountable DEBT Load. The FED won't' permit the Bond Vigilantes to Price in Inflation again as it is - wait for it... "TRANSitory. Yeah, naw, wrong again desperados. Looking rather forward to the NEXT SELL in TLT. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
TNX - 10Yr Yield largest SELL Side Offer since Mid-FebruaryPricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a Catalyst Level. Duress in Bonds will further increase VX in Equities, both directions as there are only a limited number of Capital Pools. Money will flow where the returns can develop: CASH METALS COMMODITIES BONDS STOCKS REAL ESTATE Crypto (Unregulated Illusory Capital) Choose wisely, this cuts both ways. It is remarkable how few Bond Holders did not envision this possibility. The engrained mindset becomes one of defiance at any cost to preserve the Cult's Dogma. The Bond Market within the United States is ever so slowly being destroyed, its destruction is accelerating for reasons we have outlined repeatedly. Trade Safe out there, disruptions are simply beginning. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
12
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty. Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little. Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper. This will get nasty in the next 10 days. Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can only to let it go again. We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K. NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline. With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly. IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
10
Inverse correlation between Gold/copper VS. YieldWe have a very nice inverse correlation between Gold/Copper (XAUUSD/CPRUSD) VS. TNX ( 10 year yield). in the red zone we see TNX going down while The Gold/copper chart resist to go up... Maybe ( and just maybe ) TNX was making a bull flag and according to this inflation we may see more upside from TNX and then Gold/Copper will go down. My goal range for TNX is about 1.92 while we are approaching to the end of the year and we may see Gold again in 1600$ range. Going up in TNX will hit the bond market and a lot of money will flow into stock market ( positive for #SPX #SPY), and the result will be drastic uspide move into stock market. How long will this continue, is the question. What s your IDEA ? put it in comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by nabavi57