Get started

To

Bitcoin: BTCUSD Breakout with minimum upside target at 14234Bitcoin Coinbase Feed Break Out with upside target at 14234 Very remiss - left the post yet again to attend to 'other' feed. (If you are a serious aficionado of Bitcoin and want pretty much round the clock updates please check for details at top left of sumastardon page.) We did buy again at 13417, right on the line, if anyone would like to check and then finally a decent pattern emerged - yet another beautiful reverse head and shoulders pattern - not so well defined on Coinbase but perfect on Bitstamp, (next chart upload) and with a minimum upside measurement implication at 14234 on Bitstamp. Look to buy this dip now as close to 13600 on Coinbase and get long to the target with a stop about 200 lower. Bitcoin Early Sunday Comment and Update After two bad trades losing 50 to 100 points apiece, Bitcoin turned negative again on a break below 13900 and triggered a short back to '13600 minimum and more likely back to 13400-13300 range before looking to buy once more, conditions permitting and showing some support/fight emerging at these levels if struck at any point overnight.' So after a disastrous long from close to the lows and another higher up, both of which lost 50-100 points apiece, the short came good with a 500-600 point win. Not at all what was intended as the day began - but we follow the chart and act on the signals it gives us and that was the result of following the chart overnight on Saturday. Despite spiking lower than this price action this morning has stabilised around the 13300 level and will have encouraged some to get long again - if so raise stop high underneath it as it's likely to come off again from around 13600 on Coinbase and just 50 points higer at max on Bitstamp...close out the long here and will look to buy back lower again on the next dip... Update Bitcoin Coming up to the next sell point here...one last blast down from 13417 most likely if very weak and from 13573 highest on Coinbase - this next decline is likely to be the last so will be looking to get long again soon most probably...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
DXY Dollar Index Trying to put up a stand at 91.76 supportDXY Dollar Index The Dollar Index has fallen to the next blue line of support 91.76 after an intra-day low at 91.75. It's trying to hold here. It's still trapped in a near term downwave and struggling to escape. It's already made one attempt to escape the down-trend and is trying again now. There are pins forming below the low and above it too on the 2 hour chart, denoting conflict/confusion here. For the bulls to win some respite they need to force DXY above 91.95 and hold it there (and no lower than 91.92 on a retest once 91.95 is taken) to attract more buyers up to 92.05-92.12 range where DXY will likely turn back down again. For DXY to show it's turning back up from that point it will have to take back 92.12 and then turn 92.04 into support when tested from above. Will need to see something like this kind of price action to convince that DXY has more upside to 92.49-92.55 On the downside the next support below 91.76 lies at 91.52 with major support/maximum likely downside target at 91.02. A move below any blue line by more than a couple of pips is likely to trigger further weakness back to the next one.
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin BTCUST 2018 Infinity and BeyondBitcoin BTCUSD 2018 Well the last day of trading Bitcoin in 2107 was a difficult one. We managed to bag 450 or points from 13000 to 13460 early on (and day traders another 300-450 trading the range from 13000 to 13150, also earlier in London session) but then lost the plot as the day wore on with two poor trades centered around the 14000 level which lost 50-150 points each time. So it wasn't a grand-stand finish to the year, unfortunately, and on a bad day we ended up just 150 points or so ahead (maybe 450 or so if day trading). But in 60 or so days of fairly intense mining we have extracted over 19,000 points from Bitcoin if you go back and total the trades. So it took about 2 months to buy Bitcoin outright and still have some change left over. No one can say what 2108 holds in store. But just so long as the great mine in the sky remains open for business we have to work it. There may never be an opprtunity like this again in our lifetimes...how often does mankind attempt to put a value on Ether? Never. Bitcoin has a value of somewhere between $5 and $50,000. That's all we can say. But that is one hell of a range to play inside...a range we are basically making up as we go along. That creates a wonderful, big space for traders to play within. So long as Bitcoin keeps moving fast we should be able to make some good returns again this year coming. And if we only average a paltry 200 or so point return each day as yesterday, that translates into 1400 points per week and will therefore take just 10 weeks for us to own Bitcoin outright through traded profits. And that in turn means we buy Bitcoin 5 times over in a year. So by working this mine systematically and intensely and by looking to trade patterns and not price, we should be able to make good returns for as long as it stays open to us. Please Pay this Forward These commentaries on the life and times of Bitcoin began in earnest 60 days ago - mostly because seeing some of the forecasts by Tradingview's 'top' writers covering Bitcoin and how vague and confusing and ultimately unhelpful they can be just twanged my vibes so strongly that I had to do something about it. It began as an experiment in human nature - am old, pretty much retired but still totally addicted to charts, especially in 'bubble' type situations because the chart is just a temperature gauge showing how 'hot' people feel in aggregate about product 'X'. It is human nature in the raw, displayed on screen. People make patterns. And people don't change. Each generation tends to think it's smarter than the one that went before it - their cars are faster, safer, they'll be driving themselves soon; their toys are way cooler - pretty much everything except music and movies is just ...better. So the confidence of each new generation is understandable to an extent. But the truth is that human nature itself never changes. We react in exactly the same way to fear and greed as we always did. Deep down, under the surface absolutely nothing has changed. We're human, is ALL. So we track and trade the recognisable patterns that humans make across the chart - the same patterns humans always tend to make across the ages - whether that's the patterns made in 1927-1933 at the end of the 'roaring' Twenties or the patterns made by the Tokyo bubble exactly 60 years later (1987-1993) or the patterns made by Nasdaq from 1997-2003 or the patterns made now by Bitcoin (2017-2023?) ...they are all the same. With one big difference: time. We know Bitcoin moves something between 60 and 100 tmes faster than pretty much any speculative instrument ever devised by man so far in all history. What happens on the SandP over weeks is displayed here in hours. It means that there are roughly 60 to 100 times more opportunities to open trades in Bitcoin than there are to open trades on SandP, obviously. One is just a fractal of the other. All we have do is watch for patterns to develop, identify them, and trade them.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3
GBPUSD: Two ways to trade this pair from hereGBPUSD Two Ways to Trade this pair right now Testing imprtant resistance from the upper parallel of the flag formation. Can be shorted with stops above the upper parallel for small loss if wrong and can also be shorted from lower down by using a break of he little speed line running under recent the lows as a trigger - looking to short on a retest of this line from the underside, once broken. This is a speccy sell, only here because the loss is small (10 pips) if wrong. And if so, and the upper parallel is broken through and held by the bulls on the retest it will be the signal to reverse, looking for quite a strong rally (not many look to be long here by shape of chart, mostly disbelievers in GBP, still left over from Brexit...the slow-witted, really slow- witted) which should take Sterling to 1.3599 minimum and 1.3633 maximum in near term. The alternative is to await the outcome of this battle, and side with the winner: one of the two dynamics will break - up or down - follow that break when it comes, on the retest, with stops above/below the dynamic once broken.
by sumastardon
1
BTGUSD: Vulnerable to next correction nowBTGUSD Last comment was 6 days ago, back in the mists of time now. In the ensuing 6 days BTG has knocked out some patterns other 'stocks' take 6 months to achieve. Cryptoland is another planet, a whole 'nother world. We were buying this at 212 6 days ago and locking in last profits at 250ish before the decline gathered momentum, only because the chart told us to. If you follow the chart and not your weak/strong heart you will stay out of trouble a lot more often than by following your sometimes emotionially unstable heart. It becomes unstable under pressure and gets too damn strong when price surges. It's unstable, no? Ask yourself, does your heart do this to you? Well congratulations: you're HUMAN ! So if you know this anyway already all this will do is confirm what you knew already - but sometimes find it hard to do...follow the chart and never your heart. On repeat, like a mantra...patterns not passion. Patterns not passion. So easy to say and so difficult to do sometimes when price comes back at you from underside once broken. But your heart must be mastered. You are in charge of it, not vice versa, after all. So BTG has just had it's little counter-rally on back of Bitcoin doing the same and now it's likely time to fall away again, to 216 -210 minimum - and if this gives way, to 193, with stops justa few points above the upper parallel for smallish loss if wrong. BTG only turns back to positive once the parallels containing this impulse wave are broken through to the upside. Only then can we return to bullish, looking to get long on the retest of the upper parallel once broken to the upside. Only then does BTG flip/reverse, and we must too if the chart gives that signal.
BShort
by sumastardon
7
Bitcoin BTCUSD Happy Bitmas to You and YoursBitcoin BTCUSD. Christmas Day What kind of sad tw@t would be writing on Bitcoin today? Hi there. So how's Bitcoin behaving over Christmas? It rallies all morning in Europe and then at 12.45 GMT as everyone goes to lunch and buyers dry up it falls 1200 points to the lower line of what is now a developing continuation pattern, and, as usual tracking parallels. Jeez. If we'd known that was going to happen that could've paid for lunch a few times over. Maybe next year now we know... So Bitcoin swings across the globe into the hands of the USA for a few hours - who don't look too interested either way, but Bitcoin does top out at 1.30 EST - do you guys eat a little later than UK on Christmas day ? Anyway, now I figure most will have finished, as Bitcoin has started to rally again....so next Christmas day maybe we have an idea of how this behaves...no one around and it goes down. Amazing. Who'd have thought? Looks like it will grind higher but still be subject to fairly sharp drops - just don't want to be buying this high and then getting whipped out in zero volume conditions - so can only think of buying if the lower parallel is tested with a stop 50 or so under the line - but when Bitcoin skips across the Pacific to land in the far East volume should start to rise, and they are more likely to be buyers than sellers...but the chart will confirm - or deny - this for us...can get pushed up to 14648 but not likely to get much further without Eastern buyers and some volume...if you see this some time around the open or within an hour at most and 14648 is broken through it can be followed for 800 points or so up to 15509. It should come off again from here, if not from 15814 later on though. On downside there is near term minor support here, at 13982 with stronger support at 13717-13679, where the lower parallel lies now - Bitcoin must hold up off this line on all retests to avoid falling back into negative territory, most likely driving price back to the left hand structure that began this move at 12617 -12500 with smaller counter rallies most likely off the blue support lines at 13456 and 13086. Any break below 12500 would trigger another good short back to 11391-11165 range.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3
Litecoin: LTCUSD Use a stop here to protect longsLitecoin. LTCUSD Bitcoin's failure has washed over into all the Alts but Litecoin has not suffered as badly as others, so far...if that's to remain the case then support at 245 must continue to hold here during the course of today (stops for longs need to be only 3 points or so under here) for any failure to hold will tip Litecoin into the hands of the bears who will force price back to 208 at least, if not back to 173 before releasing their hold. Use a stop (in head) here or an alert. Better safe than sorry
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by sumastardon
4
BTGUSD Full rinse out - ready to go again ahead of weekendBTGUSD Full Rinse Out Ready to go again Back in the buy zone ahead of weekend- it's been to the lows at 193 where it was an outstanding buy and may present another opportunity either from lower down again towards 193 or alternatively once 212 has been regained and holds for a few minutes. The 191 level must hold up today to avoid further significant weakness back to 151 (a good short/reversal level for longs if we see it)
BLong
by sumastardon
1
BTGUSD More tradeable downside hereBTGUSD Still running within the same sets of rising parallels, BTG took 10 days to more than double from its lows. A laggard. It's still unwinding, making a similar continuation pattern to the one that has just preceeded it...it may try to rally one more time to 348/9 but once 321 gives way it should fall to 299-289 range, worth shorting. Whilst trapped within the falling parallels from the highs BTG will remain in a weak technical position. To turn back to bullish from here BTG will have to break above 352 and hold (not spike higher and fall away) only then will it look safe to follow for move up to 391. But the chart is saying more downside is likely first.
BShort
by sumastardon
BTGUSD Buy this dip for rally back to highsBTGUSD BTG took over from BCH at around 11pm est - as BCH topped out BTG took on the baton and ran higher and higer for the next 5 hours as BCH headed back south. The patterns are similar on both charts, both tracking within a series of parallels, a sell off the top pair and and a buy off the lower pair. It's ahving a problem at 305 and looks like it has to unwind a little more before it can go again, ideally dipping back into the lower 2 parallels where it can be bought again ahead of a possible good weekend rally in prospect. Alternatively, buy on a break above the dynamic resistance line off the highs on a successful retest for rally back to highs BTG stays good overall whilst it holds the parallels and should continue to be bought on dips until we see the lowest parallel broken.
BLong
by sumastardon
1
EURUSD: Still more EUR upside in store to 1.1880EURUSD Don't get Spiked in FOMC aftermath Eur stays under pressure whilst trapped within the parallels - a break above the upper parallel means trend change back to positive for EUR - not a spike above the parallel (FOMC) - a successful break and hold on retest to know that trend is changing back to positive for EUR. Update: A fantastic break that we usually only see in the crypto markets. But today the fiat paper currencies caught the fever. EUR is strong above support at 1.1813 and should bounce here at lowest on any consolidation from here before rallying further to 1.1880 *The first section was written for hedge funds ready for the run up and aftermath of FOMC meeting - to simplify and de-noise the event It's not much use for trading purposes now (TV had an embargo limit running 24 hours ago when it was uploaded and thought it would do it automatically when time limit expired. Wrong. So many limits to getting information out with so many markets to cover. This is not the way. But the price action here is worth uploading for newer traders: put the parallels on your own chart with a 5 minute chart and see how perfectly EUR comes back to test the parallel from above - one last perfect kiss - before it flies higher through uncontested space above it. The whipsaw you see is normal crap after an FOMC meeting - but out of chaos emerges perfect order. Just takes a little time. You don't need to get caught in the noise. You need to get caught in the aftermath. Sometimes it pays to wait. Hedge funds do. Why not you?
Long
by sumastardon
IOTA: IOTUSD Downtrend BrokenIOTA IOTUSD The rally yesterday fizzled out from the upper parallel of a newly forming continuation pattern. Using a trailing stop under the day's little dynamic that had underpinned the rally from inception at least meant escaping the worst of the ensuing decline by triggering an exit at around 4500 but it was a poor call nonetheless. If you reversed short on the break below 4361 there is at least a 180 or so point profit still to be had, but so far it has not reached the expected downside target. It's trying to flip back up here but is still being held back by the upper parallel that controls the wave. Still vulnerable whilst unable to break and hold above this parallel. Suggest using a sliding stop above this parallel for shorts. If broken to upside look to close down and reverse for small 100 or so profit -
BITFINEX:IOTUSD
by sumastardon
2
BTGUSD: raise stops here/trail under dynamicBTGUSD After losing the dynamic support yesterday BTG fell away to probe structure to its left and leaving pin bars of buying intent at 240 but never quite struck the support at 235 before bouncing away again - creating a new dynamic support line under the day's lows, like yesterday. Still grinding higher but meeting quite heavy selling and now pin bars of resistance from 290 . Still a good strategy to run a trailing stop under the dynamic and maybe stick a limit order between 294-299, looking to buy back at 282.
BLong
by sumastardon
BCHUSD Speccy Buy hereBCHUSD This short back to 1178-1123 range was going OK until that horrible spike around 19.30 GMT which stopped us out for rather sad 110 to 160 point profit when there was so much more downside left here. Still, we went long again at 1178-1123 range with a low at 1125 so no stops were hit in the final flush we were looking for. Sadly, have been so caught up in Bitcoin that this call has been left unattended. Bad. That high at 1545 and the pin bar it left at the top was surely the best invitiation even a newbie could get to close out. Please say: Yes! 400 points profit in 5 hours flat if you agreed. Now BCH is coming back to test 1349 support, roughly 50% of the rally. It's back to being a speccy buy again here (1350-1336, with stops under 1330) for small loss if wrong. Hopefully you can afford it now...
BLong
by sumastardon
IOTA: IOTUSD Trying to base here - buy points todayIOTA IOTUSD Update Trying to base here - Buy points Within minutes of publication the little dynamic support line that had held upyesterday's rally was broken, flipping IOTA from positive back to negative on a dime. Stops for longs were running up under the parallel as price moved north. Well it was good whilst it lasted but once that little dynamic was lost we can see the damage done. That stop was at around 4598 when the parallel was finally lost, so by using this method of exit on longs the vast majority of the rally was locked in and no real damage has been done. We live to fight again from lower levels now... Iota is now trying to base out at 3037 by look of chart but is likely to have a problem at the tangled mass of resistance just above here, where fixed and dynamics meet...no way do we get long again here until that has been beaten through...it has to get back above the upper parallel, now around 3400 and survive any retst of that parallel from above once broken to trigger next long from here. Maybe we will get a better entry long from lower down still...need to watch this and look for potential double bottom/loss of downside momentum at 3037 for fist clue we have a low forming now...if it fails here we stand back looking to see if 2.865 offers support - if not it means 2.172 is the next level to look for a buying opprtunity. So we are left with 4 potential entry points here: at 3400 ish on a break of the upper parallel with stops kept under the parallel by 50 points or more. Or at a potential yet-to-be-decided double bottom at 3037 And should this fail to hold from 2.865 or at lowest from 2.172 if we see it. That's a little complicated but covers the levels. The easiest will be the break above the upper parallel. It should attract quite a lot of buyers as well as shorts closing down/buying back too. watch it and follow when the signal is given on the chart. Use stops though. Yesterday should have taught you that by now. Lesson learned.
BITFINEX:IOTUSD
by sumastardon
7
Brent Crude: UKOIL Last long shot,ready to reverse here if wrongBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Last long shot with tight stops ready to reverse here if wrong Right on key support at 62.18 with a low at 62.14. If this fails here the entire wave from the lows is exhausted. At this point, if seen, we switch from buying dips to selling rallies - it will fall away to 61.15, bounce some and then likely fall away to 59.44 and potentially much lower still. This is the 4th strike on this parallel. Normally 4th strikes are good with the parallel only usually losing its power on the 5th. This means that Brent is a speccy buy here with stops under 62.10 for small 8 pip loss if wrong from here. And if we are, then that lower parallel gives way and we then switch on a sixpence to bear stance from bull, looking to sell off the underside of the parallel if touched again with stops above by 10 to 15 pips max.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
DXY Dollar Index Trying to Base hereDXY Dollar Index Update Near Term Neutral but Dollar Trying to Base DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50 range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside, and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too. On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below 92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart. Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest. At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not already given) and get long USDEUR.
TVC:DXY
by sumastardon
BCHUSD Tracking new parallels and grinding higher againBCHUSD Buy dips again but keep an eye on Bitcoin This produced one of those perfect breaks today that all traders love...the trigger was a break above the smaller continuation pattern back down towards the lows at 1400 - the minimum target was 240-258 points higher at 1620-1638. The high of the day was 1638. How many managed that? Top trader today if you did! So now, having just lost 10 points going long at 1540 it looks time to try again here. This movement sideways has shifted BCH from under the bigger parallel that was halting advances last Thursday at the same highs as today, creating a minor double top - at the same time the pattern has shifted so that BCH is now tracking a loosely defined pair of parallels with a good strong pin bar violating the lower line and then a series of smaller pins around 1479...but on upside it's testing resistance at 1517 up to 1539...look to buy dips to 1482 and down to 1461 if touched (put orders in, you never know (all stops must be below 1455 for now). It should grind forward again, using the lower parallel as supoport/buying opportunities towards 1618-1638 and then, after another pause, on to 1707 and 17766. This is good whilst within the parallels. Bad if and when if loses the lower parallel. If at any point we see this close out all longs and consider shorting on next pull back towards the parallel from below, once lost - don't think so , but we need a plan B in case as Bitcoin is frisky and the fate of BCH is pretty much dependent on BTC from here.
BLong
by sumastardon
1