Selection & how to operateThe obvious part if you've understood all the previous posts.
It's easier to start with how Not to trade .
Wrong - cherry picking "strong" levels. Every level is a level, not better & not worse than another one. Choosing the supposedly strong levels is a subjective thing that reduces expected value & consistency.
Right - operating at each level on a given resolution, you either expect a level to repel prices or to be consumed, you operate accordingly at every level. The more you operate, better for the market, higher your revenues. If there too many levels for you, instead of cherry picking you just move to a lower resolution. Some levels can be effectively skipped because of risk & sizing consideration, but skipping levels an cherry picking levels are 2 completely different mindsets.
Wrong - stopping operation after N loosing trades.
Right - controlling equity as explained in "Sizing & how to manage risk". If you're making loosing trades in a row, you don't stop, you just hit zero size, then you imagine trades or execute on simulator, when your size comes back to a non-zero value you come back to the real account. More you operate - better for the business.
Wrong - waiting for a "confirmation". If you don't have a firm expectation whether a level will repel prices or will be consumed, you don't know what you're doing, read all the posts and understand how it all works.
Right - knowing in advance what you gonna do at each level & keep reevaluating it in real time.
Wrong - making reentries. The activity around levels, especially how levels get cleared, is very well defined. After the scaling in is complete, you either exit at loss/at breakeven when a level gets cleared / positioned in the unexpected side. Or, you scale out while being in the money.
Right - unless there was a mistake caused by a misclick or smth like dat, reentries is an irrelevant concept.
Wrong - working out insurance after the entry.
Right - a hedge should be bought BEFORE scaling in, same goes about placing the stop-losses.
How to operate
Asset selection
Not many people think about it, but it makes sense not only to provide liquidity when & where there's not much of it, but also to consume excessive liquidity when & where there's too much of it, because both cases are unhealthy for the markets. So, we have 2 types of trading instruments then:
1) overquoted ones, such as GE, ZN, or ES many years ago;
2) underquoted ones, such as CL, NQ;
How to distinguish dem?
One way is to take a look at volumes on highest resolution cluster/footprint chart, and compare em with the actual number of bid/asks in the DOM. ZN for example is hugely overquoted, you'll notice that: it has aprox 1000 contract at every bid/ask price, but when these limit orders start to get consumed at one price, the rest orders at the same price just gets cancelled, and you see lesser values on your footprint/cluster chart. The opposite happens on underquoted instruments, they need liquidity.
Why it matters?
You operate the same way on both under and overquoted vehicles, but:
1) on underquoted vehicles you mainly use limit orders, you provide liquidity;
2) on overquoted vehicles you mainly use market orders, you remove liquidity;
Exits at loss vs attempting to get out around breakeven
Both are legit, the latter gives more freedom, but implies not using stop-losses so you have to know 4 sure what's happening and what you're doing.
That's how you trade with stoplosses.
1) In case of trading pops from positioned levels, you simply exit when the support/resistance gets cleared, in case of clearing by price it means you'll have an L, no big deal tho;
2) In case of trading pushes through positioned levels (aka trading clearings aka trading consumptions), same, you're getting an L if you hit the invalidation point. The invalidation point for these trades is the opposite border of the positioning sequence. This border is found the same ways as the front level, just at the opposite side;
3) Trading during a positioning itself. Makes least sense to trade with stop-losses, but in theory: taking an L at the next level past the level you expect to be positioned this or that way. If there is no level past you current level, you try to make a projection, smth like its shown on ZN chart of this post, imagine you were trading positioning of 112'19.
Without stops it's almost the same, it's just instead of taking an immediate loss after an invalidation event, you exit at breakeven when price comes back to the entry zone (in most cases it does). If prices don't go back and hit another level, you simply continue trading there, if that new level you're working with now is supposed to act in the opposite direction from the previous one, you simply reverse your position. If that new level is supposed to work in the same direction as the previous one, you're holding your position further.
This kind of operation assumes very high win rate, low RR ratio and very rare but significant losses. However, if the unexpected happens 2 times in row, chances are the problem is on your side xD
Finally
1) Monitor non-market data in order not to be caught against the momentum surges (eg unless you're a DMM, trading at Jobless Claims release is a BAD IDEA);
2) Pick your main resolution that way you'll be satisfied with the frequency of your operations;
3) Work with all the levels there;
4) Never approach the next level while having a full position, always offload risk on the way, unless you expect the next level to be cleared/positioned in the same direction;
5) Always control risks;
6) Understand that it's all about doing the right thing, and it's totally possible to understand what is right by gaining all the info from all the data.
You should end up trading 100% of positioned levels, trading 50% of positioning processes demselves, and rofl never try to trade smth that looks like "a new level is forming now".
To
GBPCAD long to short ideaAs we showed in our mark up last Sunday, we expected price to hit our higher zone!
Which it did!! BUT, never gave us the short entry that we was looking for, now we have cleared that target we are looking to follow the bullish order flow up to the next POI....
from there we are going to look for shorts again, REMEMBER follow order flow and don't force your entries! wait for them to show themselves....
IF YOU LIKE THIS IDEA SHOW US BY HITTING THAT LIKE & SHARE BUTTON!
Long Breakout with big upside potential ADA-USDT, has been in a clean downtrend since the 10 of November. Today (saturday 19 november) we have a strong bullish break out on the 1 hour time frame. Taking a closer look on the 15-5min timeframe after the break, we can see that it found some support on a key level and we had a nice bounce.
HOW-TO: Adjust Default Parameters in MLC for Intraday TradingThe default parameters in Master/Last Candle (MLC) indicator are used for the standard timeframe 1D. Due to the difference in nature between bars of intraday timeframes and bars of day-and-above timeframes, some settings could be changed as below to make the indicator tailored to your case.
• Increase default Max Volume Drop % from 25 to 30. We have seen a case in timeframe 30m that requires deeper volume drop than 25% to catch the big move. If you also find a big move that is not captured by MLC, try to adjust this measure as we do. If it is not your case, ignore this item and keeping the old default value as 25.
Before
After
• Other parameters: Percentile % , Min Price Breakout % .
Before
After increasing Percentile % of Cx candles from 50 to 60
After increasing Min Price Breakout % from 20 to 25
Solar panels etf green energy versus silver rocket!So the idea is based on a paired trade or what I think of as a hedged trade. Paired in that I am buying two things that I think may be correlated but both will not necessarily do well. If one does well the other may not do well and vice versa. My idea is to buy this solar energy etf as a hedge against all of the silver mining companies that I have perhaps foolishly invested in thinking that silver would go up one day! If I am wrong and silver remains depressed and even collapses further due to recessionary fears even a major depression perhaps, who knows. Anyway, if this turns bullish straight away which I do not expect but could happen then if we go over 130 on OBV and then find support there then I think go long there at least until proven otherwise. Otherwise look for support on OBV at 46 and if not there then 7.9 OBV. Worst case scenario if the world turns to custard, then it has to stop somewhere around -17.86. I would round it to -18 myself. On RSI we need to find support at 46, or 45, or 44. It may look like I am being indecisive but that is just where there is possible support levels. Below there on RSI there may be support at 39 and 36. We really need to break out of the downwards trending channel. I think breaking horizontal resistance will be more meaningful than breaking the trend lines of the channel. I think there is a very interesting looking triangle pattern that looks like it will break before 2025 or around that time at the latest. This then is my way of hedging my silver investments. Considering that silver is major component of solar panels and that if the price of silver goes down that has to be bullish for solar panel companies surely! Personally, I think that silver is hard to mine and is not that easy to find but with 70-80% of silver mined as a byproduct of other mining for base metals as well as precious metals then perhaps if there is a general boom in mining for green transition materials in particular funded by fiscal spending by governments buying votes through the green agenda then who knows it might work. Plus, if climate change is real and this is our do or die moment as a species it could all pan out. There's no alternative really. In terms of geopolitical events this could be a great hedge as well. If China and US have a war over Taiwan, then any investments in China could go down the tubes but once resolved then it would go back up maybe. China produces most of the solar panels in the world or at the least a high percentage. The main holdings in this etf many have Chinese names, so I am assuming that they are in China and probably in central Asia as well. Another thing that could be bullish is that volume is falling as price falls. It has based for a long period of time and there is potentially a cup and handle formation in the basing pattern as well. The fibonacci extensions are interesting as well. It found support at exactly the right place. It could be a bull flag.
BTC TO 21K, 22K AND 24K LEVELS !!!! First look at the elliote wave (1D Time frame)
according to that we will going 24k
Than we can see a stong support level of 19400-600 and 18500 - 800
these are the strong support level which btc will not break and we will see a good pump from here (4h time frame)
Now see that small green trendline at bottom thats according to 1 h time frame we are having rejection from that again and again
currently we also see a rejection from there and it bounced back from there.
Conclusion::
we are going up
There can be a max micks to 18400 - 18600
U can take a small long positon of 5 10% your portfolio tps 21k 22k 24k
Tutorial On How I Look For Entries/Exits Each Day - ATOMUSD - 1DHello traders,
I meant to publish this in the morning but I got pulled away on something else. It seems my analysis would have been correct, so I'll share this now.
This method is just one of many ways a trader can identify trend direction and entry/exit points at the beginning of each day.
To start...
I identify all patterns and indicator setups that indicate something bearish (the ones in red) or bullish (the ones in green).
I put a +1 tally next to each of them. After identifying all the setups I can, I count the tallies for bullish/bearish bias.
Today, even though the immediate term was looking bullish, there were more bearish signals than bullish ones.
For good measure I then like to do a left to right scan across the chart to see which ones are most prominent to the right (i.e. currently).
I saw the breakdown of the trendline on the right side of the chart, and paired with the bearish signals outnumbering the bullish signals.. I opened a short which was very profitable.
APE/USDThis is a classic sleeper your seeing the start of a big up tick. Huge dump off and huge buy in. Old money and new money and the start of a new shoot the moon scenario. Watch history repeat it`s self.
BTC just passed the test, bull is coming!btc will close the day >1.2 per cent.
bitcoin just reached the last fibo resistence at near 18.5k usd, and it passed without sticking.
after two weeks of slow recovery (0.1 per cent daily on avg), and two weekly inverted hammers (28 feb and 30 may), 0im sure the the price and buy volumes will rise on the next few weeks.
BUT make sure of buy patterns, even with a few potential profit loss.
it will test again near 30k, above that, may take less than a week, price will bull up.
JUST BE PATIENT!