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Bitcoin - Do not get fooled by bullish callsPersistence of bearish fundamental factors continues to support our bearish view on the cryptocurrency market. We expect more rate hikes (by the FED) and economic tightening to bolster the selloff in the general stock market. Subsequently, we expect that to drag the price of Bitcoin to new lows. The same picture is painted by technical factors, which point to more downside for Bitcoin. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The chart depicts Bitcoin trading at 2018 price level. The upper yellow dashed line connects peaks; the lower yellow dashed line is parallel to the upper line. Corrections of the downtrend are indicated by yellow arrows; it is observable that prior pauses in the selling pressure were followed by sideways moving price action. Subsequently, that was followed by a new low in the price of Bitcoin. At the moment, we observe the same development on the daily chart. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, DM+, DM- are all bearish. The MACD flattens. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Illustration 1.03 The chart above shows the price of BTCUSD and volume. It can be seen that volume is at monthly lows over the past ten years. Although, in the past three months, as selloff progressed, volume picked up a little bit. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
64
Bitcoin - Still no sight of the uptrend Since the last Friday, Bitcoin rose about 600 USD to approximately 20 200 USD, where it currently trades. Nevertheless, we maintain a grim view of Bitcoin, mainly due to the persistence of bearish fundamental and technical factors. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Although, we would like to acknowledge that Bitcoin might continue to be choppy for a little longer before regaining momentum to the downside. Illustration 1.01 The daily chart of BTCUSD shows retracements toward 20-day SMA. These retracements act as corrections of the downtrend. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the ability of the price to stay above/below the 20-day SMA (above is bullish, below is bearish). If the price holds above the SMA for an extended period, that may imply another price increase before the breakdown. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI exited the oversold zone, which is slightly bullish. Stochastic is neutral. MACD is slightly bullish; however, it remains in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 The chart shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Bitcoin - The inability to hold gains hints at fragile marketOvernight, we saw a short-lived bounce in the price of Bitcoin to 20 895.08 USD. Within a few hours, BTCUSD gave up most of its early gains and plunged below 19 500 USD, where it currently trades. We continue to be bearish on BTCUSD. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows an overnight correction of the downtrend, represented by natural price retracement toward the 20-day SMA. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Since 26th June 2022, the volume is again on the rise; that is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame has not changed and remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
19
Bitcoin - The massive selloff might lurk behind a cornerShortly after our last idea on Bitcoin, it started to manifest weakness. Accordingly, we remain bearish and maintain our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. That is mainly due to the persistence of bearish fundamental factors. However, technical indicators across weekly and monthly time frames also support our views. Therefore, we think the cryptocurrency market is preparing for another leg down which will most likely culminate into a selloff that will drive the price of Bitcoin below our price targets. Despite that, we would like to monitor the price action and adjust price targets as the trend progresses. A several worrying developments Over the past few weeks, market participants have experienced the downfall of a stablecoin Luna and many (predominantly small-cap) cryptocurrencies. Additionally, they saw the Celsius Network pause withdrawals and transfers to its more than 1.7 million users who hold more than 151 000 Bitcoins at this “cryptocurrency bank.” In our opinion, we will see more trouble in this sector, especially among institutions that offer “stacking” and similar (allegedly) “risk-free” investments which guarantee unsustainable returns over a short time. Another problem on the horizon is the prospect of higher interest rates and economic tightening in the USA and around the globe. That will drag the price of cryptocurrencies to new lows against fiat money. In addition, the next issue arises with the upcoming regulation regarding stablecoins and token issuance. Again, we think that will negatively impact the market. Indeed, we believe there lies the possibility of the U.S. regulator to legally mandate exchanges to back a significant portion of their tokens by fiat money. If so, that could potentially trigger a massive selloff as we deem cryptocurrency exchanges like Bitfinex unable to fulfill this (hypothetical future) requirement. Therefore, we voice a big word of caution to market participants. Illustration 1.01 Medium and long-term moving averages support the bearish thesis for BTCUSD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI broke below 30 points which is extremely bearish for BTCUSD. Stochastic also turned bearish. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. MACD flattens. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 In merely 212 days, Bitcoin declined over 70% from its all-time high value. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
13
Bitcoin - No trend reversal in sight, BTC eyes 15 000 USDYesterday, we changed our short-term bias back to bearish from neutral/slightly bullish. Additionally, we set new price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD, representing approximately an 11% and 24% decline from the current price level. Our bearish medium-term and long-term view is based mainly on fundamental factors like higher interest rates and economic tightening. However, technical aspects also support our thesis, especially across weekly and monthly time frames. Because of that, we continue to maintain our price targets and bearish bias. Accordingly, we expect BTCUSD to make new lows over time. Illustration 1.01 BTCUSD trades within the descending channel. Breakouts below the lower bound were followed by a new low and sideways moving price action. There are similarities between the previous price action and the current price action. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI loses momentum. Stochastic starts to flatten. MACD points to the upside; however, it remains in the bearish territory. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral (and less bullish than in previous days). Illustration 1.02 Interestingly enough, volume started to pick up in the past four days; that hints at an increase in the selling pressure. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish. Illustration 1.03 The failure of BTCUSD to retrace fully toward the 20-day SMA suggests that the downtrend correction is losing momentum. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
24
Bitcoin - BTCUSD due to revisit lows once the rally endsBitcoin's bear market rally shows the first signs of weakness and exhaustion. We still pay close attention to 20-day and 50-day SMAs; in the short-term, BTCUSD may attempt to retrace toward these levels (before breaking down and revisiting lows). Accordingly, we remain neutral/slightly bullish in the short-term. However, in the long-term, we remain bearish. Therefore, we will look for clues hinting at the rally's end. Fundamental factors Bearish fundamental factors continue to persist. The prospect of another rate hike by the FED in July 2022 diminishes the chances of Bitcoin's rally continuation. In fact, it threatens global markets and risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The same applies to the economic tightening, which will put substantial pressure on the economy and drag it lower. In addition to that, the upcoming regulation of cryptocurrencies will tighten the market conditions even further. We view mentioned factors as very damaging to the price of Bitcoin. Illustration 1.01 Volume has declined over the past few days. That is positive for BTCUSD as it hints at the cooling off within the selling pressure. In the short-term, the price will likely attempt to retrace toward its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, representing a correction of the downtrend. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside. DM+ and DM- are flatenning. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 The total cryptocurrency market-cap remains below 1 trillion USD in valuation. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is in oversold territory. MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish. Illustration 1.03 The picture shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Bitcoin - The best time to start taking profits off the tableOver the weekend, on Saturday, Bitcoin dropped as low as 17 592.78 USD, missing our price target by 92.78 USD. Then, within 24 hours, Bitcoin erased its losses and dropped below 20 000 USD again. Currently, it trades slightly below the 20 000 USD price tag. At the moment, we are not entirely sure where BTCUSD is headed next; as a result, we would like to abandon 17 500 USD. We expect a relief in the stock market and cryptocurrencies; however, what we are seeing now in the market might be actually it. In our opinion, now is the best time for investors to take profits off the table if they went short Bitcoin and exploited the trend. Although, we have to note that fundamental factors weighing on BTC did not change. Therefore, we speculate it is possible we still have not seen a bottom in the price of BTCUSD. We will monitor the price action closely and update our thoughts soon. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows Bitcoin reaching the 2018 price level. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The declining volume hints at a cooling off in the selling pressure. In our opinion, that might foreshadow a temporary rally toward the 20-day SMA. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
10
Bitcoin - BTCUSD eyes 17 500 USDThe FED raised interest rates by 75bps yesterday. Despite that, the stock market rose by 3%, providing a temporary lifeline for cryptocurrencies. We view economic tightening and higher interest rates as negative for the U.S. economy and Bitcoin. That is due to the high correlation between these pairs exhibit. Thus, our price targets are 20 000 USD and 17 500 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows the rapid fall in BTC market dominance. The Celsius Network, run by Alex Mashinsky, paused withdrawals, swaps, and transfers on its platform a few days ago. Unfortunately, that is a substantial blow to over 1.7 million platform users, leaving their 151 534 BTC locked away. The company's statement says: “Due to extreme market conditions, today we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts. We are taking this action today to put Celsius in a better position to honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations.” Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is extremely bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI shows oversold extreme. MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is extremely bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
24
Bitcoin - 25k USD taken out and what is next?!Over the past few weeks, despite the numerous calls for the bottom and trend reversal, we kept our bearish stance on Bitcoin. Today it has plunged below 25 000 USD, hitting our price target and constituting a new low. We continue to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin. As a result, we would like to update the short-term price target for BTCUSD to 23 000 USD and the medium-term price target to 20 000 USD. Our views are drawn from bearish fundamental and technical factors, which are detailed below. Fundamental factors On 15th June 2022, the FOMC meeting is set to take place. We expect higher interest rates to impact the cryptocurrency market negatively. Furthermore, we expect the same from the economic tightening combined with reducing the balance sheet that belongs to the FED. Therefore, we foresee more pressure from the weakening stock market (to which BTCUSD is highly correlated) and a lack of appetite for risk assets. In addition to that, we view increasing scrutiny into cryptocurrencies (by the SEC and other governmental entities) as very harmful to the sector. In our opinion, the upcoming regulation after the fallout Luna stablecoin token will lead to an even tighter market. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows two recent bearish breakouts leading to the formation of a new low in the price of BTCUSD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish. Illustration 1.02 A volume tells a story of increasing selling pressure. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is very bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows additional simple support and resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
22
Bitcoin - The stock market provides a temporary lifeline for BTCOur latest post hinted at similarities between the structures of Bitcoin and Ethereum. We warned that Bitcoin was likely to follow the Ethereum's breakout below the support, which occurred a few hours later, and Bitcoin made a low at 28 003 USD. Then Bitcoin reversed back into the neutral zone and continued to climb higher over the weekend. Currently, BTCUSD trades around 30 600 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish on BTCUSD, and our price target stays at 25 000 USD. However, at the moment, we will pay close attention to the 31 411.18 USD support level. If the breakout above this level occurs, then BTCUSD is likely to continue higher - especially if the stock market continues its own “bear market rally.”; in our opinion, that would provide a further lifeline for cryptocurrencies in the short term, and as a result, BTCUSD could rise as high as 36 000 USD before resuming a downfall. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the recent breakout to the downside from the neutral zone. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD also points to the upside. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. The ADX started to decline, which is reflected in the choppy price action of BTC. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 We will also pay close attention to the volume. We will monitor it to see if it will be sufficient to sustain a rally in a case of a bullish breakout. Insufficient volume accompanying the bullish breakout would suggest a bull trap. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. The ADX increases, which points to a strengthening trend. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. The same also applies to the monthly time frame. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
38
Bitcoin - Strong warning sign in BTCUSD!Over the past two weeks, we have continued to warn investors about the false rally, which seems to have started losing momentum. Yesterday, we warned that the correction in ETHUSD was nearing its end; then, a few hours later, ETHUSD fell approximately 10%. At the moment, we notice a similar pattern playing out in Bitcoin. Therefore, we would like to voice caution and awareness that Bitcoin is likely to follow suit in Ethereum's footsteps. We expect an eventual breakdown in the price of BTCUSD and new lows to be formed below 25 000 USD. As a result, our price target stays at 25 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple moving averages. We hinted at a similar retracement in ETHUSD yesterday before the price drop. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the mentioned retracement in ETHUSD. Retracements in BTC and ETH show a strong resemblance. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the drop in ETHUSD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.04 Volume drops like in the case of ETH. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
325
Bitcoin - The bottom fishing turns out to be painful for retailYesterday, we warned that the (irrational) bullish exuberance among retail investors foreshadows more pain for the price of Bitcoin. Shortly after that, Bitcoin invalidated its bullish breakout for the third time and started to fall. Finally, after erasing more than 7%, Bitcoin halted its decline at 29 309.84 USD. Since then, BTCUSD has been mainly trading sideways. We continue to be bearish on Bitcoin, and we maintain our price target of 25 000 USD. Our view is supported by bearish fundamental factors like higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening, which will put more pressure on the U.S. economy and cryptocurencies. As a result, we expect the downtrend to unravel in the coming months and Bitcoin to form a new low. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the failure of the bullish breakout (invalidation) and subsequent drop in the price of BTCUSD. We believe that fishing for the bottom will continue to punish dip buyers. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for BTCUSD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish for BTCUSD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
8
Bitcoin - BTCUSD eyes 25 000 USD againWith the recent developments in BTCUSD, we do not need to change our bearish bias. Therefore, our price target stays at 25 000 USD. Negative fundamental factors Among the fundamental negative factors weighing on the higher price of Bitcoin is the prospect of the FED pursuing more rate hikes in the U.S. and its reduction of the balance sheet. We expect these factors to strengthen USD and, as a result, weaken BTCUSD. Additionally, we still foresee the weakness in the stock market to which the price of Bitcoin is highly correlated; with more declines, we expect risk appetite to drop even further. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD is flattening. Stochastic and RSI are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the bull trap we hinted at two days ago. Since then, the price of BTCUSD fell over 9%. Currently, BTCUSD trades around 29 400 USD; favorably, we would like to see a plunge below 28 600 USD. That would further bolster the bearish case for Bitcoin. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture shows how Bitcoin failed to penetrate the sloping resistance; instead, it reversed to the downside. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
25
Bitcoin - It is game over for BTCUSDBitcoin had struggled around the 30 000 USD price tag over the past two weeks when low volumes proved insufficient to propel Bitcoin higher. After several false breakouts above the short-term resistance, Bitcoin always erased its profits immediately. Currently, BTCUSD trades slightly below 30 000 USD. We continue to be bearish on it as we expect economic conditions to worsen with the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. Therefore, our price target stays at 25 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows BTC's market dominance. It can be observed that BTC's market dominance was around the lowest levels at previous cryptocurrency market tops. Since the start of 2022, Bitcoin has started to regain its market dominance, which aligns with our bearish thesis. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish. Illustration 1.02 As the FED meeting approaches next week, the VIX started to manifest signs of awakening. We believe the FED will worsen economic conditions by hiking interest rates. As a result, we expect risk-aversion to return into the market, culminating in a selloff of risk assets like Bitcoin. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish. Illustration 1.03 At the moment, Bitcoin remains stuck in the neutral zone. However, we expect an eventual breakout to the downside. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 hints at a substantial difference in volume sizes between the BTC bull market and the BTC bear market. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
40
Bitcoin - BTC is getting stuck in the rectangle patternOver the past week, Bitcoin mainly traded between 28 600 USD and 31 411 USD, resulting in the creation of the rectangle pattern. That suggests that the trend is turning neutral in the short-term. At the same time, the daily time frame shows bullish technical developments, implying more upside for Bitcoin in the short term. We will pay close attention to the upper bound of the rectangle as the breakout above it could potentially mark the beginning of another bounce towards the 36 000 USD price tag (especially if the stock market recovers some losses). However, we expect the bearish trend of a higher degree to stay intact. Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish outlook on BTCUSD; we still expect an eventual breakdown in the price of Bitcoin and new lows to be formed below 25 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the current setup on BTCUSD. The yellow rectangle indicates the neutral zone; the rectangle's lower and upper bounds act as support/resistance levels. Breakout to the upside would be bullish, while breakout to the downside would be bearish. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish, implying the possibility of continuation of price rise. MACD also points to the upside, which is bullish; however, it still remains in the bearish territory. DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX decreases which suggests that the bearish trend started to lose momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows BTCUSD on the daily chart. White horizontal lines indicate particular support levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
14
Bitcoin - The stock market will drag BTCUSD lowerYesterday, the general stock market erased most of its “bear rally” gains. As a result, Bitcoin also erased some of its recent profits; however, not as much as the stock market. We expect Bitcoin to catch up with the stock market and manifest more selling pressure in the short term. Accordingly, we remain bearish and expect BTCUSD to form a new low below 25 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The Nasdaq 100 index to which Bitcoin is highly correlated broke its downward sloping channel, which is very bearish. Indeed, in our opinion, it forecasts an acceleration in the selling pressure in the incoming days. We expect the stock market to drag BTCUSD lower with it. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI started to flatten; we expect it to turn bearish again. The same applies to the MACD. Stochastic remains bearish; DM+ and DM- also remain bearish. The ADX shows extreme strength of the downtrend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX increases, which suggests that the bearish trend of a higher degree is not losing momentum yet. Overall, the weekly time frame remains very bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
21
Bitcoin - "A dead cat" about to die for the second time So far, Bitcoin has failed to move above 31 411.48 USD, which puts the odds in bearish favor. Technical and fundamental factors also stay bearish. Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish bias. We expect BTCUSD to form a new low below 25 000 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic remain bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX is highly elevated, suggesting a powerful downtrend or “peaking” trend; however, we are inclined towards the “powerful downtrend” interpretation. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic remain bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX grows. Overall, the weekly time frame shows an intact bearish trend. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
16
The shattering of the cryptocurrency bubbleSince November 2021, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has started to decline. Indeed, it has declined approximately 60% until now; meanwhile, the selloff has accompanied this in more than 20 000 cryptocurrencies. Moreover, volatility remains highly elevated, and short-lived bounces in the price of tokens, followed by fast crashes, suggest anxiety among market participants. These are particular signs of the downtrend, which is poised to continue further. Technical and fundamental factors support this view. All - daily, weekly, and monthly time frames - remain bearish. Additionally, altcoins experience outflows of capital, while Bitcoin sees capital inflows. That hints that people are flocking to Bitcoin from other riskier coins. At the same time, the prospects of higher rates in the U.S. and around the globe pose threat to the purchasing power of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, our outlook is very bearish and we voice a word of caution to the market participants. *additional ideas in which we detail how we navigated the current downtrend are attached below the idea ATH of the total cryptocurrency market cap = 3.009 trn. USD (10th November 2021) The current value of the total cryptocurrency market cap = 1.217 trn. USD Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the total cryptocurrencies market cap excluded BTC. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the dominance of BTC. It can be seen that its dominance has started to increase as other altcoins started to puke. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows how it correlates with the total cryptocurrency market cap. A strong positive correlation is shown. *A strong correlation can be observed also with the tech sector which experiences "tech winter". Illustration 1.04 The illustration above shows LUNA (against USDT), a popular stablecoin that gained a lot of press within the past few days due to its sharp drop of more than 99%. This event foreshadows more similar events to come in cryptocurrencies that lack any other use than speculation. Illustration 1.05 Bitcoin has entered the "free-fall area" - an area with the absence of support. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Tradersweekly
4
Bitcoin - BTCUSD about to hit 35k USD and continue lower In tandem with our expectations, Bitcoin dropped lower. As a result, we continue to maintain a bearish stance. Our short-term price target remains at 35 000 USD; our medium-term price target is 32 500 USD (due to become a short-term price target once 35 000 USD is taken out). Illustration 1.01 The bearish breakout illustrated above confirms our thesis. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- also show bearish conditions in the market. ADX continues to increase. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX indicates that the bearish trend is relatively weak (but gaining some momentum). Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
10
Bitcoin - Deleveraging to accelarate soonOur short-term price target of 37 500 USD was reached just recently. Therefore, we would like to update our thoughts and change our medium-term price target of 35 000 USD to a short-term price target. Subsequently, we would set a new medium-term price target of 32 500 USD. We continue to maintain a bearish stance on the overall cryptocurrency market as we expect deleveraging to continue. Our view is supported by a combination of bearish technical and fundamental factors. We will pay close attention to the FED meeting and the upcoming rate hike during the current week. We expect hiking rates to have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays BTCUSD on the daily chart. We expect an eventual breakout below the short-term support. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI has been choppy lately; due to that, it can be regarded as neutral. MACD remains bearish and Stochastic. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX continues to increase, which suggests the bearish trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The chart above shows BTCUSD on the weekly graph. It also portrays volume bars at the bottom of the chart. It can be observed that selling pressure has been increasing over the past three weeks. In our opinion, this foreshadows a further move down for Bitcoin. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish; the same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX contains a relatively low value, which suggests the presence of a neutral trend (of a higher degree). Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the monthly chart of BTCUSD. It also shows the big difference in the size of the volume being traded in the past versus currently. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
12
Bitcoin - No All-Time-High in sightYesterday, Bitcoin plunged below 39 000 USD. However, the drop was quickly retraced and BTC bounced as high as 41 754.05 USD today. We continue to maintain a relatively neutral stance in the short term as we expect choppy price action to persist for a little longer. However, we are turning increasingly bearish in the medium term. Because of that, we would like to set a medium-term price target for BTCUSD to 37 500 USD. Illustration 1.01 The illustration above shows the upward sloping channel indicated by two white dashed lines. Price can be seen rising throughout this channel, however, the decline in volume accompanies this price action. That signals caution to us. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI started to turn bullish. MACD and Stochastic are striving to turn bullish as well. Indeed, MACD may perform a bullish crossover soon, which would bolster a bullish case for BTC in the short term. DM+ and DM- remain bearish, with ADX indicating the presence of a neutral trend. Overall, the daily time frame looks less bearish than in recent days. However, we will pay close attention to BTC's ability to move above 50-day and 100-day SMA. Failure to move and hold above these levels would suggest more selling pressure ahead. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is neutral, and the same applies to MACD. Although, MACD remains in the bearish area. Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish too. Meanwhile, ADX indicates no significant trend is present. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
89
Bitcoin - BTC's volatility continuesBitcoin continues to exhibit choppy price action around the 40 000 USD price tag. However, that does not change our stance on it. We remain bearish with the short-term price target of 37 500 USD and medium-term price target of 35 000 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. MACD and Stochastic are bearish; however, MACD is trying to reverse to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX continues to increase, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX contains relatively low value, which suggests the presence of a neutral trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly