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Bearish signs arise Bitcoin has erased nearly 14% in the past five days, falling below $64,000. In the process, it broke below the ascending trendline that connects peaks from January 2023 and March 2023. On top of that, technicals like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic have continued to decline on the daily time frame, which is turning increasingly bearish and could imply that the correction is not over yet. Accordingly, levels to watch out for lay at $64,895, $60,000, and $59,250; the inability of the price to regain ground above $64,895 will be worrisome. Furthermore, a breakout below $60,000 will strongly bolster a bearish case. In our opinion, the current setup presents an attractive short trade entry below the ascending trendline shown in Illustration 1.03 and a tight stop-loss order above it. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow highlights a bearish breakout below the ascending trendline. This trendline is important to watch out for, considering Bitcoin has hovered overextended above it since the start of March 2024. Illustration 1.02 The picture above displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below support at $64,895 (now acting as a resistance). Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows a short trade entry setup. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
Many large speculators left the ship recentlyBitcoin dropped below $67,000 overnight. Interestingly, this price action was preceded by a bearish breakout in the RSI and a reversal in MACD and Stochastic on the daily chart. These developments are highly worrisome, especially as the stock market rally is losing steam at the same time as Bitcoin; since the two markets are quite overbought, the case for a correction continues to grow. Furthermore, as these two markets remain highly correlated, the potential weakness in the stock market presents a danger to Bitcoin’s performance. Another thing that is catching our attention is the dynamic observable among Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. These large speculators have been seemingly liquidating their positions amid Bitcoin’s spike above $60,000, all while retail investors are piling in Bitcoin ETF products. Overall, the environment is very similar to that in late 2021 when Bitcoin was near the top, with the majority of investors forgetting how quickly the sentiment can change and disregarding possibilities for the downside. Illustration 1.01 The illustration above shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow highlights a bearish breakout below 70 points. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
8
Overbought conditions continue, and so do ETF inflowsBitcoin established a new high just below $73,000 before retracing slightly lower. Indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Stochastic continue to point in the bullish direction on the daily time frame. However, the RSI began diverging from the price, which is something to monitor in the foreseeable future. In addition to that, daily, weekly, and monthly time frames are all overbought, supporting the case for a pullback; yet, it is important to note that pullbacks in the past three months were short-lived, with investors rushing to buy the dip. Therefore, in our opinion, a more significant pullback would have to be accompanied by a strong correction in the stock market. In regard to movements among Bitcoin addresses, there were no significant changes (since our previous update) among any of the particular groups. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs keep seeing money flowing in; here is the recap of particular ETF inflows and outflows since the start of 2024: - ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) = $1.823,09 billion - Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) = $1.342,08 billion - Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) = -$10.154,88 billion - Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) = $6.024,74 billion - Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) = $168,93 million - iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) = $9.693,18 billion - VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) = $192.4 million - WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) = $44,03 million Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the divergence between the price and RSI on the daily time frame. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
2
Bitcoin is still behaving like a risk assetAfter reaching a new all-time high yesterday, Bitcoin underwent a mini flash crash, erasing more than 14% in less than five hours and falling below $60,000. Nevertheless, it took only a few more hours for Bitcoin to recover and get back above the $66,000 handle, where it currently trades. The number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC slightly increased, while those with balances exceeding 100 BTC dropped by a small margin. In our opinion, yesterday’s price action is a prime example of Bitcoin remaining a risk asset rather than a safe haven that many people consider it to be. Consequently, we remain highly vigilant in this euphoric state of the market. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD and yesterday’s mini crash. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
100
Daily, weekly, monthly timeframes - all overboughtBitcoin extended its rise above $64,000 overnight. Since our previous update, there has not been much change to the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. However, the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC continue to gain growing momentum. On the technical side, daily, weekly, and monthly time frames remain bullish, with multiple indicators suggesting overbought conditions. As these developments likely foreshadow a significant pullback in Bitcoin's price (in the coming days or weeks), caution is still highly advised. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows simple support/resistance levels for BTCUSD, derived from past peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow indicates the decreasing volume accompanying the increasing price (following the breakout above $60,000). Generally, these developments are questionable and worrisome. Nevertheless, in the past few months, a low volume in Bitcoin favored the upside and often preceded abrupt moves higher. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
8
Caution, strong warning signal arises! As euphoria grows more and more reminiscent of the market peak in late 2021, there is one strong warning signal emerging. Based on the data from LookIntoBitcoin, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC underwent a considerable drop yesterday just as Bitcoin managed to break above $60,000. This figure dropped from 2,159 to 2,092, which inversely mirrors a rise in the number of addresses exceeding 100 BTC in mid-October 2023 (just a day or two before the fake news about Bitcoin Spot ETF approval kickstarted this steep part of the rally). While this does not necessarily warrant the end of the rally, it is a significant development that should not be overlooked (as it may suggest a change in the large speculator’s stance, which, up until yesterday, seemed very serious). Since this could potentially foreshadow a significant pullback in the market, we advise a caution to market participants. Illustration 1.01 Interestingly, Bitcoin halted a decline slightly below the trendline, which connects peaks from the early stage of the rally. Illustration 1.02 The price deviating too far from its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA also makes a case for the pullback (retracement toward these moving averages). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
8
Cardano(ADA) Bull continuation Based on the chart, ADA has just completed correction wave 4 and continuation to complete wave 5 to complete wave 3 is expected, then from there we will be looking for the market to correct and complete wave 4 or if not wave 4 then we will expect market direction change. Will keep on updating on this, but for now, at the Current Price we are expecting a bullish move. I have indicated the chart so you can be able to see my sentiment clear. REMEMBER..NFA
Long
by Theofylrx
1
Bitcoin is going steeper as markets grow extremely greedyNews of MicroStrategy adding 3,000 more Bitcoins to its stash sent the cryptocurrency soaring from around $52,000 to more than $57,000 in less than 24 hours (now, MicroStrategy holds about 193,000 BTC). This price action was accompanied by the RSI’s retracement to the overbought territory and a bullish reversal in MACD and Stochastic (on the daily timeframe). The next significant resistance levels lay at $59,250, $59,517, and $60,000 (psychological resistance). For now, the picture remains bullish for Bitcoin; however, caution is advised as markets are growing extremely greedy. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Interestingly, there is a lack of any significant support or resistance between $52,000 and $59,000, making a case for volatile oscillations in this range. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
12
What to know about past Bitcoin halvingsBitcoin halving is an event that halves the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced to a network (or mined). This event occurs approximately every four years or after 210,000 blocks have been mined; as a result, each halving reduces the reward given to miners by half and mimics a concept known as the hardening of a currency (meaning it is harder to extract it over time, like gold, for example). Considering one such event is approaching in the next two months, we would like to look at past halving periods. The first halving occurred on 28th November 2012, when the block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Interestingly, Bitcoin gained about 27% from its lows on 27th October 2012 until one day before the first halving; in the next 30 days after halving, it gained another 10%. In the 90 days after the event, Bitcoin rose nearly 159%; one year after the first halving, Bitcoin was up an astounding 8,334%. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows Bitcoin in 2012 and early 2013. The yellow arrow indicates the date of the first halving. About 30 days before the second halving, Bitcoin was on a similar upside trajectory as during the first halving cycle, gaining approximately 14% (though the run-up was slightly more than 34% at some point). However, in the next 24 days after the second halving, Bitcoin lost nearly one-third of its value before rebounding; 30 days after the second halving, it was down only about 5% (measured from the opening price on the day of the second halving). In the 90 days after the event, Bitcoin was down almost 8% (which coincides with the time it started to reverse to the upside). In one year after the second halving, Bitcoin was up 284%. Illustration 1.02 The image above illustrates BTCUSD on the daily time frame in 2016. The yellow arrow indicates the date of the second halving when the block reward was reduced to 12.5 BTC. The third Bitcoin halving took place on 11th May 2020. It was preceded by a massive (and rapid) selloff in stock and cryptocurrency markets due to the start of the coronavirus pandemic earlier that year. From a peak on 20th February 2020 until a low on 13th March 2020, Bitcoin dropped more than 63% (in less than 30 days). From its lows in March, Bitcoin soared by 126% until the day of halving (yet it was still lower than at its peak in February). Bitcoin’s performance in the 30 days after the third halving was about 9%, and in the 90 days after the event, it was about 40%; one year after the halving, Bitcoin was up 565%. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates the third Bitcoin halving in 2020 when the block reward was reduced to 6.25 BTC. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
A few developments to watch out forBitcoin has held relatively steady above $50,000 for about five days. In the meantime, the volume has kept falling, and the number of large speculators (Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC) has marched higher (there was a slight drop in the figure yesterday, though). Simultaneously, the RSI has continued to trend in the overbought territory on the daily chart, and the MACD has begun to flatten. A breakdown in the RSI below 70 points will be bearish, and the same applies to a crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. Similarly, a case for a pullback in Bitcoin could be strengthened in the case of a major weakness in the stock market; as Bitcoin stays highly correlated with stocks (especially tech) and still behaves much like a risk asset, the quickly changing sentiment in the stock market might be worth monitoring. Nevertheless, the daily time frame remains bullish for now (with signs of weakening momentum). Illustration 1.01 The volume has been declining across various crypto exchanges. Generally, the declining volume accompanying the rising price is a questionable development. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Interestingly, Bitcoin has not yet taken out resistance from the prior bull market at $52,956 (established on 7th September 2021). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
2
A quick look at SUNUSDPer the request from our audience, we would like to take a look at SUNUSD. Based on the information available on Binance’s website, this cryptocurrency was created in connection with the Sun platform and is intended to promote the development of decentralized finance on the TRON blockchain network. In 2021, the Sun token was swapped with a new version of the token at a ratio of 1:1,000. Since then, the Sun’s value has fallen by more than 51%. Furthermore, unlike Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the SUNUSD marked a new low in early December 2023 (after rising almost 100% between late 4Q22 and 1Q23). Overall, the SUNUSD’s volatility might make for exciting swing trade opportunities. However, a long-term investment in this coin seems high risk. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of the Sun token. The blue indicator below the main graph shows the weekly percentage change, providing a good picture of how volatile this cryptocurrency is; for example, on 1st December 2023, the SUNUSD plunged by more than 28% and rose by 41% the following day. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the MACD breaking into bullish territory on the daily chart, slightly bolstering a bullish case in the short term. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITFINEX:SUNUSD
by Tradersweekly
Market is growing reminiscent of Autumn 2021A few weeks ago, we noted that the mania in the cryptocurrency market seemed to reach levels coinciding with the summer of 2021. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin’s price increases, the narrative about the “complacent plateau” and the never-ending rally grows stronger as well, making the current time reminiscent of late 2021. As a result of the massive rally, investors in stocks and crypto alike seem to have become numb to potential risks markets face in 2024. It is becoming increasingly apparent that there will be no six rate cuts this year with the accelerating inflation in the United States. The FED will have to keep monetary conditions tight for somewhat longer than many investors have initially anticipated (or until something breaks). By doing so, the FED will further slow down the economy and increase the chances of an economic accident (especially as the lagging effects of previous hikes do not seem to show up yet on the surface). Since such an accident would negatively affect the stock market’s performance, it would also negatively affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (considering the strong positive correlation between the two). Bitcoin continues to behave much like a risk asset, which only increases the odds of a significant decline in the case of a general stock market selloff. With that said, we are growing increasingly nervous about the overall situation in the market and think that Bitcoin might be approaching a top before a major trend reversal. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays daily and weekly graphs of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows show slight similarities in the price structures between these two charts (of course, similarities are subjective and debatable). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
13
Large speculators' appetite is slightly decreasingIn the previous article about Bitcoin, we discussed the rise in the number of large speculators, the distortion of the bearish structure in RSI, and a bullish breakout in MACD (on the daily time frame). Since then, MACD and RSI have continued to trend higher, with the RSI reaching the overbought zone. At the same time, the ADX began to trend higher, suggesting the bullish momentum has been strengthening; however, the ADX’s low value reflects that the trend is still very weak or neutral. In regard to Bitcoin addresses, the large ones (+ 1,000 BTC) have held relatively steady, while those with balances exceeding 100 BTC kept decreasing. This dynamic hints at a decreasing appetite for Bitcoin among large players (which follows a period with an aggressive rise in the number of large speculators); a drop in the figure will be slightly alarming. As such, we think stepping out of the market and waiting for the new attractive setup to arise is preferable. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and an upward-sloping channel. A failure of the price to defend the ground above the channel’s upper bound will be slightly bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
7
Big speculators positioned themselves before the rip, what now?Overnight, Bitcoin leaped higher, breaking above $44,500. As this move was preceded by an aggressive rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC, we consider it important to watch out for what will happen to this number in the upcoming days; a drop in the figure could suggest large speculators are utilizing an uptick in the price to sell holdings accumulated during the recent dip, raising slight concerns and dampening the chances of Bitcoin continuing to new highs. On the technical side, the RSI’s bearish structure became distorted, and the MACD fully entered a bullish zone above the midpoint (on the daily time frame). Both of these developments are bullish in the short term. Consequently, it seems appropriate to keep targeting $48,000 for as long as Bitcoin stays above $43,900. Illustration 1.01 The chart above shows a distortion of the RSI’s bearish structure on the daily chart. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of Bitcoin’s MACD. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout into a bullish area. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
4
Bitcoin might be mulling a big move to either sideBitcoin has been moving along the channel’s lower bound for over a week, with its trend turning increasingly neutral, as reflected in the declining ADX on the daily graph; in addition to that, the RSI has failed to distort the bearish structure and MACD has begun breaking above the midpoint. At the same time, the number of Bitcoin addresses exceeding 1,000 BTC has continued to rise, while the opposite has been going on among the addresses exceeding 100 BTC. In conclusion, the picture is mixed, bringing us to the setup we introduced in the previous article, with a bullish stance above the channel’s lower bound and a bearish outlook below it. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of Bitcoin’s RSI. If it breaks above the resistance, it will distort a bearish structure. As a result, it will bolster a bullish case in the short term. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily graph of Bitcoin’s MACD attempting to break above the midpoint. If successful, the breakout will be positive for the asset in the short term. Illustration 1.03 The image above displays an alternative upward-sloping channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
6
Make or break momentMultiple developments are catching our attention as Bitcoin trades near the lower bound of the upward-sloping channel. First, for the past twelve days, there has been one of the most aggressive increases in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC; at the same time, the opposite has been happening among the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC, which have been falling (with the decline becoming more rapid in the past three or four days). Second, the RSI has failed to distort a bearish structure on the daily chart, and MACD has failed to break above the midpoint. Simultaneously, the ADX has kept declining, suggesting the trend is relatively weak (whether bullish or bearish). As a result of a relatively ambiguous picture, we think the current situation presents both bullish and bearish setups concentrated around the price action near the channel’s lower bound. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD’s RSI. So far, it has not broken above the resistance and distorted the bearish structure. Illustration 1.02 The illustration above shows the bearish setup, which involves taking a short position with the breakout below the channel's lower bound and placing a stop-loss above it, targeting the recent lows near $38,500 (of course, the setup’s strategy can also be reversed into a bullish trade, with opposite conditions, targeting $48,000). However, it is important to note that this bearish setup is very risky, considering the recent rise in the number of big speculators. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
2
Bitcoin attempts to reenter the upward-sloping channelBitcoin edged higher over the weekend, briefly reentering the upward-sloping channel. At the same time, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC increased, suggesting big speculators might not be satisfied with the price yet to unload their newly acquired tokens during the dip. Therefore, our focus is on the lower bound of the upward-sloping channel. It will be positive if Bitcoin manages to break and stay above it. The same applies to technicals like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic if they continue reversing to the upside and growing. Nevertheless, a failure of the price to get back into the channel and a decline in the mentioned technicals will raise our concerns. We will update our thoughts as things progress. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily graph of BTCUSD’s RSI. A breakout above resistance will bolster bullish odds for Bitcoin. Contrarily, a failure will strengthen a bearish case. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays the daily chart of BTCUSD’s MACD. A crossover above the midpoint will be bullish, while a failure will be bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
2
$40,000 is a crucial level to watchSince the plunge to $38,505 on Monday, Bitcoin has been trending mainly sideways around the critical level of $40,000. Meanwhile, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC ticked slightly higher; the same applies to the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC. On the daily chart, the RSI began to flatten around 35 points, Stochastic reversed to the upside, and volume declined. All these signs are slightly positive and increase the chances of a rebound. On the other hand, there are also some negative developments, like the bearish crossover between moving averages, a continuation of the decline in the MACD, and growth in the ADX (suggesting the bearish trend has been gaining momentum for the past eleven trading sessions). As the short-term picture is not clear, it seems reasonable to keep targeting $37,000 for as long as Bitcoin stays below $40,000. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow hints at the bearish crossover between these two SMAs. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
2
Many ominous signs are showing up on Bitcoin’s chartIn the previous article about Bitcoin, we discussed how there was no significant uptick in the number of Bitcoin addresses with large balances (particularly among wallets exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC), suggesting big speculators might not be interested in buying the dip this time. Nevertheless, despite a further drop in the price (since the last article), the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC fell almost to the level that preceded the rally’s start in mid-October 2023, which is odd considering how the Bitcoin Spot ETF’s approval was expected (by many, but not us) to cause massive money flow into the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap. Yet, here we are after the approval, and Bitcoin is trading down about 16% from its highs earlier this month. While this does not necessarily mean Bitcoin can not continue higher, it is definitely a cause for concern. Consequently, we are paying close attention to the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, which are likely to perform a bearish crossover in the following days. In addition to that, we are observing technical indicators like MACD, Stochastic, and RSI on a daily time frame, where they continue to develop bearish structures; on the weekly time frame, these indicators show signs of exhaustion and are starting to move flat (not particularly bullish). On top of these developments, Bitcoin tests the bounds of the upward-sloping channels shown in the previous ideas. With the breakout below the lower bound of the upper channel, our mechanism for setting the price target became triggered. As a result, we are back in the market, and our price target is $39,000 (we will reassess the situation on the go and set a new price target once the current one is reached or stopped out). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily graph of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow highlights an impending bearish crossover between these two averages; if successful, a crossover will slightly bolster a bearish case going forward. Illustration 1.02 In the previous article, we outlined how MACD was approaching the midpoint on the daily graph, raising the odds of a bearish crossover through it. Shortly after our warning, MACD broke into the bearish area. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (turning increasingly bearish) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Big speculators are not buying the dip!While there is not much to talk about the price action due to Bitcoin trending mainly sideways since our last article, one notable thing is catching our attention. Despite a pullback in the price of Bitcoin, there is no increase in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC, suggesting that big players are not buying the dip (unlike on previous occasions when Bitcoin gave up a significant portion of its gains). That is, indeed, a very worrisome development as it comes at a time when bullish momentum is disappearing in the broader cryptocurrency market as well as in the stock market. As a result, we continue to monitor the same things we outlined in the previous article and remain on high alert. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows another upward-sloping channel playing an important role. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin's MACD. If MACD breaks below the midpoint, it will strongly bolster a bearish case. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (turning increasingly bearish) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4
Sell the fact? $39,000 in play? The last week brought much-awaited Bitcoin Spot ETF approval in the United States. However, despite the highly bullish expectations of the majority of market participants, no significant rally took place. Instead, Bitcoin has lost about 15% since its high on Thursday, which marked the day when multiple new Bitcoin ETF products started to float on the market. At the moment, Bitcoin trades near the $42,600 price tag. If it drops below the channel’s upper bound, it will bolster the bearish thesis about continuation to $39,000 and potentially even $36,000. Nevertheless, the setup we showed previously (with the short trigger coming upon a breakout below the upper bound) is significantly riskier, given the losses already made by Bitcoin (and the extent of corrections in 2023). With that said, we would like to point out that in spite of the approval of new Bitcoin ETF products (and Bitcoin Spot ETF), there is no rise in any group of Bitcoin addresses; Bitcoin addresses exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC in the balance show little to no accumulating activity. In fact, it can be argued that some of the big speculators were selling their holdings into the market’s strength. Besides that, the addresses with balances exceeding 10 BTC have continuously declined since the big rally started in mid-October 2023 (somewhat of an odd development). Now, to address the recently asked question about whether Bitcoin can drop back to $30,000. In our opinion, it would require a strong weakness in the stock market, likely amounting to a decline of 20% or more in major indices. With a global slowdown progressing further and equities being on an incredibly powerful run in a long time, a case for strong correction remains strong. In addition to that, one could argue that the recession in Europe and deflation in China could eventually spell trouble for the United States as well. All in all, the question of such a big drop is tied to market conditions. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. In 2023, there were three major corrections in the price of Bitcoin. The one in February/March reached 22.56%, and the other two in April and July reached 20.33% and 21.68% respectively. Illustration 1.02 The first two trading sessions were negative for iShares Bitcoin Trust and Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays an alternative upward–sloping channel. The channel’s lower bound acts as an important support. If Bitcoin breaks through it to the downside, it will slightly add to the bearish odds. Utilizing the same strategy as described in the previous setup, this channel could play a role in an alternative setup (still considered highly risky, though); a bearish trigger would get activated with the breakout below the lower bound, targeting $39,000. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (turning increasingly bearish) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
9