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Daily chart is starting to turn slighlty bearishAfter establishing a new yearly high on 8th December 2023, Bitcoin has been struggling to move higher. In addition to that, technicals on the daily graph began to reflect the loss of bullish momentum and started to turn bearish. Simultaneously, this has been accompanied by an ongoing decline in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC (in the latter group, the decline is less pronounced, though). Besides that, Bitcoin’s market dominance has declined rapidly since around 6th December 2023. All these developments are slightly concerning and raise the odds of a significant correction. Nevertheless, our stance has not changed, and we will continue to observe the market from the sidelines. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and RSI. The green and red arrows highlight the divergence between the price and RSI. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTC.D (Bitcoin’s market dominance). Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
2
Bitcoin mulling the return into the channel?Since the start of this month, Bitcoin has been trading above the upper bound of the upward-sloping channel, which begs the question of Bitcoin’s return to it. With that said, there are a few developments that we are paying close attention to. First, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC is down from where it was at the start of the month, particularly on 5th December 2023, when it stood at 16,006, and Bitcoin broke above $44,000; since then, the number has been pretty much trending down (with upticks on the pullbacks in Bitcoin’s price). As for the number of addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC, this remained relatively steady throughout the month. In addition to that, on the daily chart, technicals like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic reversed to the downside in the past few days. Furthermore, ADX continued to decline, suggesting the bullish momentum is decreasing. Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, RSI reached a strongly overbought level, ringing a small alarm bell to us; though, we want to note that the weekly chart remains bullish (at least for now). Consequently, we prefer to wait on the sidelines slightly longer. However, there might be one interesting short setup if Bitcoin drops below the channel's upper bound (with stop-loss above it). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (with the trend losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
The first big pullback since mid-October 2023In yet first significant pullback since mid-October 2023, Bitcoin shed about 9% of its value in the past three days (with much of the decline coming overnight). In the process of doing so, it retraced almost to the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with corrections of the main trend. Despite that, there are a few developments that stand out to us. First, the RSI and ADX are forming divergence on the daily chart. Second, there has been a modest decline in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC (since around 5th December 2023 when Bitcoin was erupting to new highs); the same applies to addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC. We previously outlined the possibility of this happening and noted that it would be worrisome since a similar dynamic played out around April 2023 and July 2023 (at particular peaks in Bitcoin’s price). We will monitor the mentioned developments in the following days but for now, we still prefer to stay on the sidelines. We will announce once our stance changes. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow highlights Bitcoin’s retracement toward the 20-day SMA, which often acts as a correction of the main trend. We will pay close attention to this level because if it fails to hold the selling pressure, it will raise the odds of a bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA (and potential trend reversal). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the divergence between the price and the RSI (on the daily chart). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
3
The situation is starting to be reminiscent of 2021 late summerBitcoin has been on an impressive winning streak for the past two months, seeing its market cap dominance rise more than 8%. Furthermore, today, it broke above $42,000, hitting values unseen since April 2022. While that is getting bulls drunk with greed, a few developments stand out to us. By now, probably many of you know that we have been tracking the number of Bitcoin addresses very closely this year. As a matter of fact, we pointed out the dynamics associated with movements among these addresses during Bitcoin’s peak in April and July 2023, as well as shortly before the start of the most recent rally that erupted on 16th October 2023. Interestingly, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC is just slightly below the level at which large speculators began to sell into retail’s hands in April and July 2023. We would say that is a somewhat worrisome development as the vibes are starting to match those of the 2021 summer, with bulls feeling invincible and many news reports of shorts getting liquidated in large quantities. With that said, the reality is that Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, and weakness in the stock market is likely to weigh on its performance. Just like since mid-October 2023, we continue to wait on the sidelines. However, we are growing increasingly suspicious about the market’s overall health (including stocks and crypto). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and three trendlines (parallels). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for an individual investor to take any trade action. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
21
Troubled Binance takes a toll on BNBUSDThe recent turmoil engulfing Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, has cast a shadow over its proprietary cryptocurrency, Binance Coin (BNBUSD). The upheaval was triggered by the unexpected resignation of Changpeng Zhao amid his confession to criminal wrongdoing (facilitating money laundering) and the announcement of a hefty fine for the exchange, amounting to $4.3 billion. These developments resulted in a nearly 20% drop in the value of BNBUSD (in a matter of less than a week). With RSI, Stochastic, and MACD all turning increasingly bearish on the daily time frame, the situation does not look like it will improve anytime soon. Therefore, to further bolster a bearish case, we would like to see the mentioned technicals continue to decline and BNBUSD break below Support 1; without any significant support below this level, we think there is a good chance for BNBUSD to drift toward $200 (after a breakout). Consequently, we will monitor the situation in the following days and update our thoughts on the asset once new developments arise. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of MACD that is crossing below the midpoint, strengthening a bearish case going forward. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for an individual investor to take any trade action. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BINANCE:BNBUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
2
CCD TOKEN / A fantastic opportunityA remarkable opportunity in a currency that I've thoroughly researched and confirmed its strength, with a suitable volume for potentially high profits. The stop-loss is set close. Let me explain the chart: the green lines indicate potential buy points, the red line below the price signifies the stop-loss, and the upper lines represent initial targets. I recommend, upon reaching these targets, securing some profits, raising the stop-loss to the entry zone, and letting the currency soar freely. Remember to manage risks diligently during these times. I don't share anything I don't personally do. This is genuinely my personal entry." KUCOIN:CCDUSDT
Long
by rerezz
1
Binance to pay $4.3 billion in finesSince the start of the week, the big talk in the cryptocurrency market has been about Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao. On Tuesday, the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission announced that the CEO of the largest crypto exchange in the world pleaded guilty to a federal charge involving money laundering. Simultaneously, Binance admitted that it had not implemented proper measures to prevent illicit activities on its platform. As a result, Changpeng Zhao stepped down from the role of CEO, and the exchange was fined $4.3 billion (meanwhile, Changpeng Zhao was fined $50 million). This is certainly not the best news for the exchange, which is still being investigated by the SEC in another separate case and by a regulator in France (for money laundering). Furthermore, when going back to about a year ago, when SquawkBox anchor Rebecca Quick asked Changpeng Zhao whether Binance could withstand a $2 billion fine, Changpeng Zhao’s response, “We are financially strong,” did not sound very reassuring. Now, with the fine being double the number mentioned in the interview (and more fines likely in the coming months), Binance or Binance.US is starting to look like an increasingly dangerous place to hold digital assets. On top of the multiple questionable developments we mentioned in the past month or so, Binance’s settlement is yet another concerning occurrence in the crypto market. Therefore, we find no reason to chase the market, and instead, we prefer to stay on the sidelines until the forecasting clarity improves (or until an attractive setup emerges). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 90-minute chart of BTCUSD, which can be seen trading within the upward-sloping channel. A breakout below the lower bound will be bearish while a breakout above the upper bound will be bullish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
7
Bitcoin is stuck between $35,000 and $38,000For the past week, Bitcoin remained choppy between $35,000 and $38,000. During this period, there was no significant change in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC; however, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC rose a bit (in fact, it has been trending up slightly since 11th November 2023). In addition to that, technicals like RSI, Stochastic, and MACD continue to develop bearish structures on the daily time frame, with ADX reflecting a decreasing bullish momentum. Overall, our short-term view is mixed. Therefore, until the forecasting clarity improves, we will continue to wait on the sidelines. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. If the price breaks above Resistance 1, it will be bullish and increase the odds of Bitcoin testing the $40,000 price tag. Contrarily, a breakdown below $35,000 will be bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
The number of large speculators declinesBitcoin attempted to establish a new high above $37,978 in the past two days but failed. In the meantime, the decline in ADX on the daily chart began to reflect a slight loss of bullish momentum; additionally, MACD, Stochastic, and RSI reversed, now pointing to the downside. These actions heighten our alert level as we continue to see the falling number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. Therefore, in the next few days, we will pay attention to the support at $35,002 and resistance at $37,978. A breakout below the support will raise the odds of continuation lower. In contrast, a breakout above the resistance will increase the odds of Bitcoin testing $39,000 and potentially even $40,000. To support a bearish thesis, we would like to see a further decline in the mentioned indicators. Contrarily, to support a bullish thesis, we would want to see RSI breaking back above 70 points and trending within the overbought territory. Furthermore, we would want to see a reversal to the upside in Stochastic and MACD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD within the upward-sloping channel. A breakdown below the channel will be bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
1
A few trends to watch out for After hitting nearly $38,000 last Thursday, a questionable relationship between the rising price of Bitcoin and decreasing volume continues to develop. In addition to that, the data obtained from LookIntoBitcoin reveals the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC dropped from 16,029 to 15,966 between 8th November and 13th November 2023, marking the most significant drop since the start of the rally; besides that, the number of these Bitcoin addresses is far lower from its 2023 high of 16,191 (5th January 2023). A similar trend can also be observed among the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC, which dropped from 2,025 on 3rd November 2023 to 2,011 on 13th November 2023 (this decline is less significant than the one in the previous group, though it still should not be overlooked); plus, the number is also down from the 2023 high of 2,054 (25th January 2023). Now, in regard to technicals on the daily chart, RSI has continued to trend within the overbought territory for the past few days. As such, we continue to wait for a breakout below 70 points, which we expect to be accompanied by a pullback in the price (probably somewhere between $34,000 and $35,000). Furthermore, Stochastic and MACD began to flatten, reflecting decreasing bullish momentum. Overall, our stance remains unchanged since the previous update. We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and illustrates a questionable relationship between the price and volume. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the 4-hour graph of BTCUSD, with the price trading within the upward-sloping channel; a breakout below or above the channel is something to pay attention to in the short term. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (with the trend losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
3
AVAXUSDT"As we enter the bullish season, the initial target to aim for is target : 100 🎯. This is based on a combination of technical analysis indicators and market trends. However, it's important to approach trading with caution and adapt to changing market conditions. Keep an eye on key support and resistance levels, as well as any significant news or events that may impact the market. Remember to use proper risk management techniques and consider setting profit targets along the way. Happy trading!"
by MKO_Trading
Retail tricked in April, then in July, and now again?While Bitcoin hovers slightly below $35,000, the volume continues to decline, suggesting a decreasing interest among buyers near the current price tags. Consequently, we remain very vigilant and monitor the situation. On the daily chart, RSI is approaching 70 points; if it breaks below this level, it will bolster the odds for a trend reversal. In addition to that, MACD and Stochastic are rolling over, turning slightly bearish. As if that was not enough, ADX seems to have peaked, which could have signaled the top for Bitcoin. Yet, despite all of these developments, we continue to see extremely bullish sentiment, mainly among retail. Overall, the situation is reminiscent of April 2023 and July 2023, when Bitcoin was topping (and retail kept buying tokens from big players). Therefore, a big shakeup might be just behind a corner. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support levels derived from peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages acting as alternative support levels to watch out for. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays the questionable relationship between the price and volume. Illustration 1.04 The image above shows the daily chart of RSI, which is approaching 70 points. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (peaking and turning slightly bearish) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
47
Decreasing volume rings an alarm bellAs Bitcoin’s price action continues to grow erratic, we keep staying on the sidelines and monitoring the situation. Today, we would like to highlight one development that occurred yesterday when Bitcoin nearly hit $36,000. We are talking about the significant drop in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC (remember, there was a massive jump in this number just shortly before the release of fake news about ETF approval, which took Bitcoin above $30,000). This event suggests that some of the big players are utilizing the opportunity to cash out their profits (in fact, the number has been trending down since around 23rd October 2023). Furthermore, while it does not mean Bitcoin has already topped, this development, combined with decreasing volume, rings an alarm bell for us as it indicates fewer people are willing to buy the asset at the current prices, making a case for trend reversal. With that said, we will pay close attention to RSI on the daily chart. To support a thesis about the trend reversal, we would like to see it break below 70 points. Simultaneously, we want to see a decline in MACD and Stochastic. Contrarily, to support a continuation of the rally, we would like to see an uptick in volume, accompanying the price higher. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. Green and red arrows indicate a questionable relationship between the price and volume, which suggests fewer buyers are willing to buy the asset at such elevated price tags. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD, illustrating the erratic start of the month for Bitcoin. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
19
Buy the rumor, sell the fact?In a wild sequence of events, we saw the number of Bitcoin addresses (with holdings exceeding 100 BTC) soar last week, followed by the announcement of fake news and the breakout above $30,000. But as if this was not enough, Bitcoin did not stop there, and euphoria around Bitcoin Spot ETF approval caused it to spike almost as high as $36,000 overnight. While these events are bullish in nature, we want to reiterate that the price behavior and movements across Bitcoin addresses are very reminiscent of the period leading to new highs in April 2023 and July 2023 (with big players unloading their holdings once new highs were constituted). Due to that and news combined with emotions seemingly driving the market, we feel uneasy about the current rally and the prospects of its sustainability. Therefore, to confirm that this whole sequence of events was not merely “buy the rumor, sell the fact” (and the ultimate trap for bulls), we would like to see Bitcoin defend the ground above $32,000 (and, ideally, close above this price tag for multiple consecutive days). Contrarily, to spark fears about impending reversal, we would want to see Bitcoin drop below $32,000, accompanied by a drop in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC. As for our stance, we continue to think it is proper to stay on the sidelines for a while longer (ideally until the emotional whipsaws start fading); we do not see the need to chase the market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD. It can be observed that in merely four minutes, Bitcoin managed to jump more than $2,000. Again, we want to draw attention to how similar these 1-minute spikes are to the ones we showed earlier this year (leading to peaks in April 2023 and July 2023). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTC.D (Bitcoin’s market dominance). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
17
BNBUSD down almost 40% since mid-summer, time for a rebound?One of the cryptocurrencies that came to our attention recently is Binance Coin. Currently, it trades near $213, down nearly 40% from its summer highs, which makes a compelling case for a rebound. As a result, we watch a setup with a long position entry above Resistance 1 and a tight stop-loss order below it; Resistance 2 will act as our price target level if the breakout occurs. We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the setup for BNBUSD. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BINANCE:BNBUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
24
XRP likely headed lowerWe saw XRPUSD pop slightly above $0.51 three days ago on the fake news about the SEC approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. However, these gains lasted briefly, and XRPUSD bounced off the 50-day SMA that remains hovering above the 20-day SMA, indicating a downtrend. As for other technicals (on the daily time frame), MACD, RSI, and Stochastic are bearish. In fact, MACD recently failed to stay above the midpoint and reenter a bearish zone, which is quite worrisome. Due to that, we continue to be bearish on XRPUSD and think Bitcoin’s growing dominance will keep a lid on its price. Consequently, our view that XRPUSD will mark new lows below $0.45 remains valid. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of XRPUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
10
Flight to safe-haven, and price action growing erratic In the previous idea about Bitcoin, we emphasized the need for quick action in regard to cutting a short position with a breakout above $28,000. By now, this should provide one’s cryptocurrency portfolio with protection from the volatile whipsaws and allow for a calm reassessment of the situation. Rising volatility and resumption of the weakness in the stock market caused the flight of capital to gold and Bitcoin in the past few days, though the fake news about the SEC approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF had a massive impact on Bitcoin’s price as well. What’s really interesting about this whole sequence of events is that we highlighted a suspicious rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses with more than 100 BTC in the balance early on Monday. We also outlined similarities to previous situations in April 2023 and June 2023 when we saw very nearly identical activities among Bitcoin addresses (with medium-sized and large-sized addresses seemingly pushing the price aggressively higher in very short time intervals, and later, once the price reached a new high, unloading to retail). Only a few hours after publishing our article, fake news broke out, and we saw an abrupt jump in the price of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies. Many people called the recent events a run to safe-haven assets (which we arguably can identify Bitcoin as well in certain situations; for example, like in March 2023, when the implosion of regional banks caused commercial deposit outflows and subsequent rise in the price of crypto). That would be yet another sign of Bitcoin slowly maturing as the asset class it was designed to be. However, as positive as that is, we want to remind our audience that this “run to safe-haven” behavior was also observable in gold at the end of 2021, after the market started to fall. But then, at some point, this safe-haven function turned into selling gold for profit to cover losses elsewhere. We think there is a high chance we will see the same thing if the stock market continues to sell off and severe panic sets in. As a result, we consider it proper to wait a bit longer before taking action. Illustration 1.01 The picture above displays the daily chart of BTC.D (Bitcoin’s dominance). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the safe-haven behavior of gold relative to the performance of SPX in late 2021 and 2022. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
6
Activity among BTC adresses soarsBitcoin jumped by more than $500 within a minute during the early European morning. Currently, it trades around $27,800, and once again, we will pay close attention to the critical resistance level at $28,000. If Bitcoin breaks above the resistance, it will be slightly bullish; indeed, it will also coincide with tight management of the short position, cutting it if the price rises above $28,000 and reentering it if the price falls below $28,000. In addition to the $28,000 price tag, we will watch Stochastic, RSI, and MACD on the daily time frame. To bolster a bullish case, we would like to see all of them continue rising, and this rise to be accompanied by a pick-up in volume. Furthermore, we would want to see ADX start rising, reflecting a growing bullish trend (the current trend is neutral, yet the volatility seems to be increasing). To support a bearish case, we would want to see Bitcoin struggle to overtake $28,000 and then $28,500. Besides that, we would like to see the mentioned technicals (except for ADX) start reversing to the downside. In regard to the Bitcoin addresses (using data from LookIntoBitcoin), we saw an interesting development over the past few days. Since last Friday, there has been a massive increase in the number of addresses with 100 BTC or more in the balance. But, we have not seen the same in the number of wallets with 1,000 BTC or more in the balance. That raises our suspicion because, in the first quarter, sudden spikes combined with the rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses preceded the price’s rise to new highs. But then, once Bitcoin reached new highs, these two groups of addresses began selling to retail. As for our stance, we remain very skeptical about the prospects of significant upside (especially if the recession hits). However, the volatility is picking up across various market segments (not just in the crypto), which can cause wild whipsaws before the price finally decides to trend one way. With that in mind, we want to emphasize the need for quick action and the use of tight stop-loss orders. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates an abrupt spike in the price of Bitcoin during the early European morning; notice a similarity to the recent spikes we showed in the previous ideas (and also to spikes we showed in the first quarter of 2023). Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the daily chart of MACD. If it breaks below the midpoint, it will be very bearish for Bitcoin. Interestingly, MACD can also be seen approaching the midpoint on the weekly chart. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates Bitcoin’s reentry into the upward-sloping channel. We will observe whether it will manage to stay within the channel; if it fails, it will be bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
20
Bitcoin's dominance overshadows altcoinsAfter staying adamant in our assessment that XRP was manifesting only another short-lived bounce above $0.50 (and then fakeout above $0.54), we finally saw it falter in the past few days. Overall, the picture has not improved, and technicals point to more weakness for the token. We still believe the support at $0.43 will be taken out, and new lows will be put in. As such, we remain bearish on XRP. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XRP. In a recent article about Bitcoin, we explained how it was likely for BTC dominance to grow at the expense of other altcoins, and this is a prime example of this. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
22
Bitcoin could be done with a fakeout rally Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped below an important support at $26,800. Currently, it trades slightly above this level. As a result, we will pay attention to Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $26,800; if it fails, it will be negative. Besides that, we will also watch RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on a daily time frame, all of which started to flatten recently and now point to the downside; furthermore, MACD is approaching the midpoint. Overall, technicals are turning increasingly bearish again, suggesting that the recent rally might have been only a fakeout after all. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of MACD as it approaches the midpoint. If MACD breaks below zero, it will be strongly bearish for Bitcoin. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of Bitcoin and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout from the upward-sloping channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
8
Bitcoin's dominance continues to march higherBitcoin has been primarily choppy since our previous article. As a result, not much has changed in our stance, and we continue to pay close attention to the resistance at $28,000. A failure of the price to retake this level and hold above it will be bearish. Contrarily, a breakout above $28,000 will raise our suspicion. Besides that, there is one more thing we want to point out: the growing number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC (which is bullish; however, the growth has not been too immense so far). We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD, which is in the bullish area. However, if the price continues to trend sideways for a while longer, we will likely see MACD flattening. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin dominance, which has been growing in line with our recent prediction. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
17