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Bitcoin's market share is set to increaseIn the previous article on Bitcoin, we discussed the possibility of another fake breakout above the resistance at $26,800. We stated that we expected the rally to be bought by retail, which seems to be confirmed by the latest data from LookIntoBitcoin, showing the number of small Bitcoin addresses (with balances below 100 BTC) increasing and the number of large addresses (with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC) falling (in the past few days). To keep the bearish thesis alive (about BTCUSD dropping to $24,000), we want to see Bitcoin fail in breaking above the resistance near $27,500. In addition, we want to see RSI, Stochastic, and MACD start flattening on the daily time frame and eventually start pointing to the downside. Furthermore, we want to see the number of large Bitcoin addresses trending flat or down, suggesting whales are still not buying (at least outside the futures market). To reevaluate our view, we want to see Bitcoin march higher, breaking above $27,500 and then $28,142 (accompanied by the growth in the number of large Bitcoin addresses). On top of that, we want to see all mentioned technical indicators continue rising on the daily time frame, with MACD fully breaking above zero (and holding ground above this level). Now, to move on to a different topic, what caught our attention in the past few days is that the recent jump in the price of Bitcoin was once again accompanied by news about Bitcoin Spot ETF (in reference to Gary Gensler’s testimony in front of U.S. Congress) and the government shutdown in the USA. Interestingly, a similar uptick occurred among many altcoins (while Bitcoin’s dominance decreased and USD strengthened). In fact, we would say that the USD has been behaving unusually strongly recently, similar to how it behaved during last year’s stock and cryptocurrency market selloff. That is raising our suspicion, and we think that we might be seeing merely a deceitful move higher (in altcoins), intended to suck in retail and create exit liquidity for big players who seek to cash out altcoins into Bitcoin and Bitcoin into fiat money. As a result, we are on high alert. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD. The yellow arrow highlights MACD’s attempt to enter a bullish area above the midpoint; if successful, it will be slightly bullish in the short term. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
31
XRP is not out of the woodsAbout two weeks ago, we warned XRP would likely test its support near $0.43. However, this has not been the case so far, and XRP moved from around $0.48 to $0.52. Despite this upward movement, we believe the retest is still due to happen. In fact, we would not be surprised to see XRP continue lower than that, being dragged by the rest of the cryptocurrency market. To reassess our view (or even abandon it), we want XRP to break above $0.54 and broader strength in the crypto market. We will update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XRP and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
30
Whales not nearly as bullish as retailYesterday, when Bitcoin approached the resistance at $26,800, we warned that another fakeout to the upside might be upon us due to the whales liquidating their positions and redistributing coins to retail. Shortly after that, Bitcoin broke above the resistance for a very brief time and then fell to around $26,100. Interestingly, the move-up coincided with Gary Gensler testifying in front of U.S. Congress, which media portrayed as U.S. Congress pushing the SEC to speed up approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. That is a perfect example of what we have been talking about in regard to any announcement of news related to Bitcoin Spot ETF (with Bitcoin initially soaring in response and later giving up gains). Though, in our view, each new announcement seems to have a lesser impact on the price than the previous one. In addition to that, there was no change in the number of Bitcoin addresses with the balance exceeding 1,000 BTC, which seems to confirm our assessment of fakeout and redistribution. Consequently, we have no reason to change our bias and stay bearish on Bitcoin. In order to maintain this stance, we want to see technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic decline on the daily time chart and a bearish crossover in MACD on the weekly time frame. On top of that, in the case of another fakeout (if it happens), we want to see Bitcoin struggle to break above the resistance near $27,500. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of RSI. A breakout below the support will bolster a bearish case in the short term. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of MACD that is approaching the midpoint. A breakout below the midpoint will be strongly bearish for Bitcoin. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
13
How to Altseason Cycle || Cheat Sheet || Bitcoin DominanceMonitoring Bitcoin dominance (BTC-DOM) is a valuable tool for crypto traders. It provides insights into the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and altcoins (ALT-USD), helping you make bette decisions about your altcoins and tokens. Spotting Altcoin Seasons: Altcoin seasons are periods of heightened interest in different cryptocurrencies and tokens, often causing their total market cap to surpass that of Bitcoin. Understanding BTC-DOM's movements can help you anticipate how the market might react: 1. BTC-DOM Goes UP: When BTC-DOM rises and BTC-USD also climbs, it often indicates a bullish phase for Bitcoin. During this time, ALT-USD may stay relative stable and face sideways. If BTC-USD experiences a decline while BTC-DOM is on the upswing, ALT-USD might witness a significant dump. When BTC-USD moves sideways and BTC-DOM follows suit, ALT-USD tends to maintain a stable course. 2. BTC-DOM Goes SIDEWAYS: If BTC-DOM remains relatively stable and BTC-USD sees an uptrend, ALT-USD often mirrors this upward movement. Conversely, if BTC-USD takes a dip while BTC-DOM remains flat, ALT-USD tends to follow suit with a decline. When both BTC-USD and BTC-DOM exhibit sideways patterns, ALT-USD typically remains in a state of relative stability. 3. BTC-DOM Goes DOWN: A decrease in BTC-DOM coupled with a rising BTC-USD often leads to a pumps for ALT-USD. When BTC-USD experiences a decrease while BTC-DOM falls, ALT-USD may stabilize or enter a sideways phase. If BTC-USD moves sideways while BTC-DOM declines, ALT-USD often witnesses an upward movement. Remember that while these trends offer valuable insights, the crypto market is highly volatile. Low cap altcoins can behave unexpectedly even when Bitcoin dominance suggests a particular trend. Therefore, use Bitcoin dominance as one of many tools in your investment strategy, and always conduct thorough research before making decisions.
Editors' picks
by Vestinda
14
Bitcoin eyes $24,000 and lowerIn the previous article, we reiterated our belief that Bitcoin is headed lower. Today, we still hold this opinion and expect Bitcoin to drift to the area around $24,000 in the short/medium term (though beyond that, we still stick to the main scenario we have been warning about for the entire bear market rally, which is Bitcoin revisiting its last year’s lows). To support this case, we want to see Bitcoin drop below $26,000. In addition to that, we want to see technical indicators, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, continue declining on the daily time frame. On top of that, we also want to see ADX start rising, which would suggest that a bearish trend is growing in strength. In the coming days, we will pay attention to the stock market, which has been struggling to make new highs recently and whose weakness can have negative implications for Bitcoin. Considering that the tech sector was highly correlated with Bitcoin last year, we think there is a high chance that a positive correlation between the two assets will rise again (and the tech sector will drag down Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies). We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of RSI. To support a bearish case, we want to see RSI break below the Support. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of MACD. The yellow arrow indicates MACD’s failure to fully enter a bullish area above the midpoint. That is a bearish development. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
24
Opportunity for a swing trade might be arisingAfter a big drop in Litecoin from nearly $115 to less than $58, the opportunity for a swing trade in the opposite direction might be arising. The setup we are watching would involve taking a long position with the breakout above Resistance 1 and tight stop-loss below it. The idea behind this trade would be to ride the price retracement toward the 50-day SMA. The first price target would be at Resistance 2 and the second at Resistance 3. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
16
The tide is turningYesterday, Bitcoin broke below $25,000, and in the process, it moved closer to a critical support level of $24,756 (before rebounding toward $26,000 overnight); if this support level is broken to the downside, it will mark a new low since 15th June 2023 and strengthen a bearish case in the short and medium term. Furthermore, if successful, we expect the breakout to coincide with MACD falling below the midpoint on the weekly chart. That would be yet another bearish development, confirming the downtrend and possibly foreshadowing a further breakdown in the price of Bitcoin (likely to $20,000 and potentially even lower). In accordance with our warnings since late last year, we may finally see an end to the most deceitful bear market rally and cryptocurrencies erasing all of their gains from the last twelve months. We continue to be bearish and expect Bitcoin to drop to around $24,000 in the short term and eventually revisit its last year’s lows. Our views are based on multiple factors, including a lack of buying activity among large speculators (out of the futures market) and the FTX’s sale of tokens in the coming weeks. According to news outlets, the former second-largest crypto exchange will liquidate $3.4 billion worth of tokens. The proposed plan will allow the exchange to sell up to $100 worth of tokens per week (with the possibility of doubling the limit to $200 million per week); the Delaware Bankruptcy Court is supposed to decide on this matter tomorrow. Now, on the topic of Bitcoin Spot ETF in the United States. In our opinion, its approval is inevitable. However, we would like to point out that recently, when there was any news in regard to this product in the United States, Bitcoin initially jumped higher but gave up profits later. That leads us to conclude that hype may fade by the time the new product gets approved, and the whole situation will turn into a well-known “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” Indeed, that happened when the first Bitcoin Spot ETF was approved in Europe last month, and Bitcoin dropped from around $29,000 to $26,000. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the weekly chart of BTCUSD and MACD. The yellow arrow indicates a looming bearish crossover through the midpoint. If successful, the crossover will confirm the reversal of a higher-degree trend. As such, it will be a highly bearish development, likely foreshadowing Bitcoin’s fall below $20,000. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
27
The chances of another volatile move are growingAfter Bitcoin's route two weeks ago, when it briefly jumped above $28,000, the price action started to trend sideways again. In addition to that, technicals on the daily chart began to flatten, suggesting the short-term bearish trend is weakening and turning neutral. To support a bearish case, we want to see RSI and MACD start declining and Stochastic continue oscillating within the bearish zone. On top of that, we want to see ADX resume growth, which would imply that the bearish trend is regaining momentum. On the contrary, to support the bullish case, we want to see the mentioned indicators turn to the upside and bullish crossover between DM+ and DM-. At the moment, we continue to be inclined toward the bearish outlook and expect Bitcoin to drop to the area near $24,000. However, considering that volatility dropped significantly over the past few days and the trend is turning neutral, the chances of a volatile move to either side grow again. Though, there is one thing we want to point out. The data from LookIntoBitcoin indicates no accumulation among large players following the price bust two weeks ago, suggesting “smart money” is not buying yet. As a result, we think the next volatile move may favor the downside over the upside. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support and resistance levels based on the recent troughs and peaks. Illustration 1.02 On the weekly chart, we continue to observe MACD. If it breaks below the midpoint, it will be very bearish for Bitcoin. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
23
Back to the square oneNearly a month ago, federal judge Analisa Torres ruled in favor of Ripple Labs in its case against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The decision was quickly followed by bullish price action, and XRP rose almost to $1, with many investors claiming this to be only a beginning of a roaring bull market. However, fast forward to today, and XRP still has not managed to break the $1 mark. Instead, the token lost more than a third of its value following the initial spike right after the judge’s ruling. Furthermore, as if it was not enough, the SEC signaled this week that it would appeal the ruling, setting a step back for the victory. As a result, we think this might put a lid on the XRP’s price and lead to increased volatility, with the prospect of XRP falling lower as another round of legal battle drags on. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD that is approaching the midpoint. If it breaks below it, it will be bearish for XRP in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
31
Decentralization, anonymity, and scarcity in BitcoinSome of the pivotal ideas to the creation of Bitcoin in 2009 were anonymity, decentralization, and the inability to print more of the same asset. However, over more than a decade, all of these founding pillars have been put to the test. Starting with anonymity, it was one of the most widespread misconceptions that Bitcoin was anonymous and, therefore, it would provide a person with better advantages to elude authority’s oversight and taxation. Nevertheless, with the implementation of KYC rules (know-your-customer) by cryptocurrency institutions and the public ledger of all transactions, this “anonymity” is reminiscent more of pseudonymity than actual anonymity. On the topic of taxation, it was often said that due to the lack of regulation of Bitcoin (and specifically tax laws around it), one could simply avoid taxes on the accrued profit. But this is not precisely true, as some countries have general rules on taxes, without regard for the activity from which the profit was made (unless it is illegal). So, this issue is very country-specific. As for decentralization, we have seen quite the opposite happening with the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin. Multiple large companies took advantage of early movers and became influential entities in the space. For example, 1 in every 127 Bitcoins is owned by MicroStrategy, with total holdings of 152,800 as of 1st August 2023. Then, there is the biggest crypto exchange in the world, Binance, with approximately 66% market share as of December 2022, based on the data from CryptoCompare. Another company growing influential in the cryptocurrency space is BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, which invested in four of the five largest crypto-mining firms and is attempting to get approved Bitcoin Spot ETF in the USA (which will again lead to more centralization). Finally, on the subject of scarcity, Bitcoin's total supply is supposed to reach 21 million sometime in the future. While that makes a good case for scarcity, we have seen multiple Bitcoin forks that resulted in the creation of new assets with very similar characteristics out of thin air; the same applies to creating entirely new cryptocurrencies (similar if not the same as Bitcoin) and issuing derivatives of Bitcoin (leading to the scenario with more paper Bitcoin than the actual number of Bitcoin in circulation). Thus, with over 20,000 different cryptocurrencies worldwide and many more derivatives to come in the future, the scarcity topic is still up for dispute (though we believe Bitcoin will likely maintain the first place in the crypto universe). To conclude this article, the mentioned tenants are a few things to think about and should prompt people to ask whether some of the developments in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin space are not defeating the sole purpose of their creation. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
16
The weekly time frame is growing increasingly bearishDuring the long weekend, Bitcoin stayed mostly flat, oscillating around $26,000. Currently, it trades slightly lower, near $25,700. In the past few days, technicals on the daily chart began to turn bearish again after last week’s spike above $28,000. Besides that, the weekly time frame also continues to grow bearish, with MACD, RSI, and Stochastic pointing to the downside. In fact, MACD is just slightly above the midpoint, and if it breaks below zero, it will strongly bolster a bearish case in the medium term. As a result, our stance has not changed since the previous update on Bitcoin. We expect it to continue lower in the short and medium term, sliding to the area around $24,000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of MACD. The crossover below the midpoint will be bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support levels based on the previous lows. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
20
Are big players to rug-pull again?Last week, we drew attention to Bitcoin deviating too far from its moving averages. We noted that such extreme deviation made a good case for a significant rebound in the price of Bitcoin before further downside. After a few days, we saw the first attempt of Bitcoin to retrace toward its 20-day SMA, which failed at $26,800. After this failure and Bitcoin falling back to $26,000, we said technicals stayed bearish on the daily chart. However, we also mentioned one quite bullish development off the chart that caught our attention. Specifically, we discussed the growing trend in the number of Bitcoin addresses with large holdings and how they often tend to precede an uptick in the price of Bitcoin. Subsequently, we stated yesterday that a combination of bearish technicals and bullish accumulation among big players could lead to a volatile move to either side. Only a few hours after the statement, Bitcoin skyrocketed above $28,000, fully retracing to the 20-day SMA. Going back to April 2023 and July 2023, we saw a similar phenomenon with large players accumulating and later rug-pulling retail investors (we outlined these instances back then). These precedents, combined with some other factors, make a good case that we could see the same end to the current rebound, especially if the stock market’s relief fizzles out. For more clues, we will pay close attention to RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily time frame. To keep a bearish thesis alive, we would like to see MACD stay below the midpoint and RSI with Stochastic start flattening (and eventually reversing back to the downside). Furthermore, we would like to see Bitcoin fail to hold above the 20-day SMA. Besides that, we want to see the number of Bitcoin addresses with large holdings start to tick down (suggesting offloading to retail’s hands). We will provide more thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments in the market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow highlights the price retracement toward the 20-day SMA. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above 30 points. To bolster Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
33
Likely more volatility aheadThe price of Bitcoin was relatively steady over the past three days. In the meantime, technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic stayed bearish on the daily time frame, and the 20-day SMA kept approaching the price. As for the weekly time frame, Stochastic and RSI continued to develop bearish structures, indicating that a trend of higher degree is turning increasingly bearish. However, there is one thing that caught our attention and which is quite bullish. It is the growing number of Bitcoin wallets with balances exceeding 1,000 tokens (based on the data published by LookIntoBitcoin). This trend suggests the accumulation of Bitcoin among big players, which often precedes significant moves to the upside. As a result, we think a volatile move to either side is possible in the next few days. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of RSI. A breakout above 30 points will be bullish and likely accompanied by a rebound (or even a potential trend reversal) in the price of Bitcoin. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
18
Time for a more significant rebound is running outOn Tuesday, Bitcoin made a new low at $25,350. The next day, it bounced to $26,800 and then faltered back down to the proximity of $26,000. During the past three days, there was a slight accumulation of Bitcoin among the biggest players (reflected in the growing number of BTC addresses with holdings exceeding 1,000 tokens). In the meantime, technicals on the daily time frame stayed bearish, and the weekly time frame started to become increasingly bearish as well. Furthermore, the stock market seemingly failed to reverse the bearish trend, likely foreshadowing more weakness in the crypto market. As a result, we continue to maintain a bearish view on Bitcoin. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. On Tuesday, we said that the rebound in the price of Bitcoin was possible due to the price deviating too far from its moving averages. The next day, Bitcoin attempted to retrace toward its 20-day SMA but failed at $26,800 and slumped back to the area near $26,000. The time is running out for a more significant bounce as moving averages are starting to approach the price (as opposed to the price spiking toward moving averages). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
9
Rebound possible after extreme deviation from moving averagesThe price action in Bitcoin has been relatively muted for the past three days, and Bitcoin has stayed near $26,000 most of the time. During this period, there has not been any significant change in the number of wallets with holdings exceeding 100 BTC in balance; the same applies to wallets with holdings exceeding 1,000 BTC. As a result, we keep speculating that big players are likely still waiting for better prices (despite a nearly 20% drop in the value of Bitcoin since its July 2023 high). In addition to that, the uncertainty in global markets also does not help to propel the price of Bitcoin higher. If the stock market does not stop selling off in the very short term future (and reverses the trend), then the pressure will continue to drag risk assets like Bitcoin lower (to the area between $24,000 and $25,000). Though, we would like to note that the price of Bitcoin deviated too far from its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA in the past few days, suggesting we might first see a retracement toward these moving averages before the next move down (especially if the stock market continues with a relief). Consequently, we are highly vigilant and expect volatility in the cryptocurrency market to stay elevated in the short term. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the extreme price deviation from the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame =Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
16
Don't say we did not warn youThose who have been watching our profile since the start of our forecasts for Bitcoin might know that in November 2021, we warned about the potential top in the cryptocurrency market. Following that, we remained bearish on the asset and rode it down to $15,000, hitting one price target after another. Then, since November 2022 lows, we have been standing firmly behind the notion that we were witnessing a bear market rally in stocks and cryptocurrencies (while not arguing against more upside in the short and medium term; in fact, we said the final rally would be the most deceiving one). Throughout that time, we pointed out multiple signs that did not align with the genuine bull market. Furthermore, we highlighted a growing euphoria reminiscent of 2021 and many popular profiles here on @TradingView forecasting parabolic rallies, no pullbacks, and “lifetime opportunities to buy.” As this was not enough, we drew attention to the fact that many of these profiles were the same guys who could not recognize that we were in the bear market in 2022 and kept pushing forward overhyped narratives regardless of the actual market situation (just to sell memberships and fulfill promotion contracts). Now, with things heating up quickly in the global markets and panic rising, we would like to take this time to say we might soon see again who these snake oil sellers are. Overnight, Bitcoin dropped below $27,000 (on some exchanges below $26,000) on high volume, painting an ominous picture. On the daily chart, RSI broke below 30 points. While many people may say this is a time to buy Bitcoin because RSI reached an oversold area, we do not think so. On this particular occasion, RSI reaching the oversold zone is more likely to indicate the start of a new downtrend rather than buying opportunity (though we might see a shortlived rebound above $28,000). Additionally, MACD and Stochastic remain bearish too. As a result, we have no reason to change our bearish stance in the short term. Accordingly, we believe Bitcoin will likely continue lower to the area between $24,000 and $25,000 (and potentially even lower). We will update our thoughts as things develop. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. If Bitcoin drops below $25,800, it will further bolster the bearish case in the short term. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
24
"Parabolic rallies" to stay empty promisesAfter days of waiting, Bitcoin finally marked a new low at $28,300. In addition to that, the daily time frame turned increasingly bearish, with MACD failing to break above the midpoint and RSI with Stochastic further declining. As a result, we continue to maintain the notion that Bitcoin is headed lower. However, we would like to reiterate that the bearish trend remains weak (reflected in the low value of ADX). To further bolster the bearish case in the short term, we want to see rising ADX on the daily chart (indicating a growing bearish momentum). Furthermore, we want to see $28,300 being pierced to the downside and more decline in RSI and Stochastic. We will update the information about Bitcoin wallets and large holders tomorrow. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of MACD, which failed to break above the midpoint. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame =Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
16
A big breakdown looming?Litecoin is again catching our attention as it is approaching the lower bound of the pattern we introduced in late June 2023. If the price breaks below the lower bound, it will be bearish for LTCUSD in the short term, and we could see a further breakdown in the price. In such a scenario, we would not be surprised to see it drop below $70. As a result, we are on high alert. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Retail buying the dip instead of large players?For about a month now, Bitcoin has been choppy, oscillating mainly within the range between $30,000 and $29,000. Such restrained fluctuations often indicate uncertainty in the market and precede times of elevated volatility. As a result of the current ambiguous situation, we can only wait for new developments to emerge in order for us to take some clues from them as to where Bitcoin might go next. Accordingly, we continue to monitor MACD, Stochastic, and RSI on a daily time frame. In addition to that, we keep observing the number of Bitcoin wallets with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC. The number of wallets with 100 BTC or more has stayed relatively steady over the past month; the same applies to wallets with 1,000 BTC or more in the balance. This trend suggests that there is not enough buying activity among big players and that they might be waiting for more lucrative prices (plus, it makes us question who is currently buying if large players are not). Besides that, in the past two weeks, the U.S. stock market has exhibited weakness, which can negatively affect risk assets like Bitcoin going forward (if the sell-off continues). Consequently, we are very cautious and stay more inclined toward the scenario with more downside for Bitcoin. On the endonte, if you are wondering whether we still think that Bitcoin can retest its 2022 lows, we do. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of MACD. If MACD fails to break above the midpoint, it will be bearish for BTCUSD in the short term. Contrarily, if it manages to do so, it will be bullish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
11
FED comes up with new program, BTC surges past $30,000Yesterday, Bitcoin briefly surged past the $30,000 mark amid news about a new Federal Reserve program named Novel Activities Supervision Program. The statement on the central bank’s website says, “The Program will focus on novel activities related to crypto-assets, distributed ledger technology (DLT), and complex, technology-driven partnerships with nonbanks to deliver financial services to customers. The Program will be risk-focused and complement existing supervisory processes, strengthening the oversight of novel activities conducted by supervised banking organizations.” While this new program is positive for the industry, we often deem moves made on the news as mere noise. As a result, we have some doubt about the most recent action in Bitcoin and whether it will be sustainable. Our stance comes from the fact that there has not been any significant growth in the number of Bitcoin addresses (following Bitcoin’s breakdown below $30,000) with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC, suggesting that big players are still waiting on the sidelines. In addition to that, we saw a similar short-lived euphoria about a week ago when MicroStrategy announced that it would buy more Bitcoin worth $750 million, and Bitcoin temporarily broke above $30,000, only to fall again later. Right now, we are paying close attention to MACD on the daily time frame as it hovers slightly below the midpoint. If it fails to move above it, it will be bearish. However, if it manages to break through the midpoint to the upside, it will be bullish for the short term. Besides MACD, we also watch RSI and Stochastic on the daily chart. Both indicators are showing signs of growth, which is bullish. However, if they start flattening and reversing, it will be bearish. Overall, the trend is turning neutral, and we will likely see more choppiness ahead. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
27
Bitcoin is still at risk of falling lowerOn Saturday, we drew attention to the bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. As much has not changed since that, we have no reason to change our stance and continue to think there is a good chance of Bitcoin falling lower (to the area around $27,00). We will update our thoughts once new developments appear. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
18
Bearish crossover between 20 SMA and 50 SMAIn today’s update, we want to draw attention to a bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. This development confirms the presence of a very weak downtrend and bolsters the bearish case in the short term. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the support at $28,574. If it is taken out, then it is very likely we will see Bitcoin test $28,000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of BTCUSD and sloping support. If the support is broken to the downside, it will further bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
20
Bitcoin is growing weakerIn a significant development overnight, Bitcoin plummeted below $29,000, marking a new low at $28,726. In the process, Bitcoin dropped below the 50-day SMA, which previously acted as a support (now it acts as a resistance). In addition to that, DM+ and DM- performed a bearish crossover on the daily time frame, and RSI, MACD, and Stochastic continued to develop bearish structures as well. We previously outlined these developments as ones strengthening the bearish case going forward. Now, we are paying close attention to the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, which are converging. If the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average, it will confirm a weak downtrend. As for our outlook on the price, it is highly possible that Bitcoin will continue lower, likely to the area around $27,000. If it manages to get there, then we will reassess our views. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate particular technical developments. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
11