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Bitcoin is finding a strong resistance between $27 000 - $28 500Since our last update on Bitcoin, not much has happened in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin oscillated between $27 000 and $28 500, finding strong resistance around this level. Meanwhile, volume continued to decline, still raising a question about the rally's sustainability. Overall, the bullish trend started to weaken, turning more into a neutral one. However, we remain cautious as low liquidity in the market may cause a volatile move in either way. We previously outlined that the rebound in stocks would provide a temporary lifeline for BTCUSD. Therefore, we will continue to pay close attention to the stock market, mainly the tech sector, which stays highly correlated with Bitcoin. Sooner or later, we expect it to break down and drag cryptocurrencies with it. In fact, we would not be surprised to see investors taking profit in order to cover losses elsewhere (just like on previous occasions in gold). Thus, we stick to our previous assessment that the current rally will likely turn out to be only another bear market rally. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD on 24th March 2023. The yellow arrow indicates a huge spike in the price of an asset. However, the spike to $29 380 lasted about a second and is not observable on other exchanges. Therefore, it can be considered a glitch and discarded from observation. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD within the ascending channel. The green and red arrows indicate the growing price accompanied by a declining volume, which is a questionable development (as for the rally). The yellow arrow indicates the price’s return back into an ascending channel. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
30
Are you ready to hold the bag?Over the past few days, the market situation calmed down a bit, and stocks reacted positively to the rescue of Credit Suisse and regional banks in the United States. We previously noted that a relief in Bitcoin would be closely tied to the rebound in stocks, which continues to be the case. People remain bullish, arguing that the recent aggressive uptick in prices only shows how bullish the market has become. One of the common arguments is that Bitcoin would not rise so steeply (and so fast) if we were in a bear market. However, we want to remind our readers that the enormous magnitude of the move-up does not necessarily mean we are out of the woods. For example, during one particular correction in 2018, Bitcoin jumped almost 100% within two weeks. Yet, despite that aggressive move (accompanied by euphoria and bullish forecasts), Bitcoin still managed to erase over 73% of its value in the following months. The reality is that bear market rallies are well-known for their deceptive nature, which causes market participants to reassess their views, hook them on, and then surprise them with an abrupt change of direction (leaving them to hold the bags). We expect the current rally to be no different. Why? Because in the big picture, nothing has changed. The FED is still poised to increase interest rates next week, further pressuring the (already) weak economy. As a result, we anticipate investors to sober up once they find out there is still no pivot on the table and more signs of recession appear. In turn, we expect this to weigh heavily on the stock market, which stays highly correlated to Bitcoin, dragging it down with it. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the correction of the downtrend in 2018 when Bitcoin rose nearly 100% within two weeks. Despite this enormous move, Bitcoin did not cease the bear market and ended up erasing over 73% of its value in the next 298 days. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin around 2014/2015. A rally of more than 160% can be observed, taking place only within 19 days. Again, despite this abrupt move up, Bitcoin declined more than 84% over the course of the following year. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the daily chart of Bitcoin. The yellow arrow hints at declining volume, which is highly worrisome. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
288
Buy the dip? Last week brought Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse, accompanied by a spike in VIX and a selloff in stocks and cryptocurrencies. As if it was not enough, unemployment in the United States rose by 0.2%, flashing a strong recession signal. Subsequently, Bitcoin dropped below $20 000 before rebounding back above $22 000 over the weekend (amid the FED’s handling of the SVB). These developments prompted many people to buy the dip and tell you to do the same, hoping everything was alright and Bitcoin would continue to new highs above $25 000. However, we are not nearly as optimistic as other market participants. In fact, we think the rebound in Bitcoin will be temporary and tied closely to the relief in stocks. Considering the recent data on the U.S. economy, we think serious trouble mounts for the U.S. economy, which will inadvertently affect Bitcoin in a negative way. Therefore, we raise a word of caution against “overly bullish” calls that ignore ominous developments in the market (more rate hikes, rising unemployment, housing crisis, etc.). With that said, we stick to our previous calls and remain bearish on Bitcoin. Our price targets stay at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. It can be observed that Bitcoin rebounded above $21 376 and then also above the sloping support/resistance. We will pay close attention to both of these levels and seek a breakdown that will lead the price back below them; breakouts to the downside can be utilized as a trigger for a short position. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 The picture above portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. Interestingly, the rebound coincides with the price’s retracement toward these SMAs. Such behavior often represents corrections, and therefore, we will pay close attention to whether the price will manage to hold above these indicators. If it doesn’t hold, it will be bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD. It can be seen that rebound occurred very fast, and the price jumped up steeply in very quick time intervals. We outlined similar behavior in the past few months, when Bitcoin moved to new highs on weekends or when the futures market was closed (and when the volume was low, making Bitcoin more prone to price manipulation). In our opinion, this is not a healthy sign. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
84
Not much going on in the cryptocurrency market Not much has occurred since our previous update on Bitcoin. Therefore, we stick to our last assessment and remain bearish with price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. However, we want to reiterate that the short-term trend reversal has not been confirmed yet. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of MACD. We want to see it fully break below zero, bolstering bearish odds in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
28
The faith of Bitcoin bulls is being put to the testFinally, Bitcoin showed strong signs of weakness, following our speculation that it might have topped (outlined in the article from 24th February 2023). Overnight, BTCUSD dropped to $22 000 before erasing some losses. The bearish crossover between DM+ and DM- accompanied the move, which we wanted to see in order to confirm our thesis about the bear market rally. However, despite these bearish developments, we have to reiterate that the confirmation of the short-term trend reversal has not yet been confirmed. Because of that, we remain very cautious and monitor the price action closely. If the price breaks and holds below the “Sloping support,” it will be very bearish; the same applies to the “Support 1”. However, if the price holds above the “Sloping support,” it may suggest that the price will stay in the upward-sloping channel for much longer before the final breakdown. As the majority of developments throughout the recent rally are characteristic of a bear market rally rather than a genuine primary trend reversal, we have no reason to change our bearish outlook beyond the short term. Accordingly, we stick to our view that BTCUSD will revisit its 2022 lows in the current year. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows indicate volume, which suggests that fewer people were willing to buy Bitcoin in the second leg up than in the first one. Moving averages are flattening, which usually accompanies a neutral trend. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The orange line represents Nasdaq 100 continuous futures (NQ1!). Below this depiction is the correlation coefficient between BTCUSD and NQ1! (using a length of 50 days in the calculation). *Pine script code used to generate the correlation coefficient* //@version=4 study("BTCUSD/NQ1! Correlation Coefficient") // Define the symbols for the two assets to be tested symbol1 = input("BTCUSD", type=input.symbol) symbol2 = input("NQ1!", type=input.symbol) // Get the historical data for the two assets asset1 = security(symbol1, timeframe.period, close) asset2 = security(symbol2, timeframe.period, close) // Calculate the correlation coefficient between the two assets correlation = correlation(asset1, asset2, length=50) // Plot the correlation coefficient on the chart plot(correlation, title="Correlation", color=color.blue) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
10
Bitcoin holding up at $23 400Over the weekend, Bitcoin bounced approximately 4% from a low of $22 770 before weakening slightly. Currently, one piece trades near the $23 400 price tag, and we have not seen confirmation of the short-term trend reversal. Therefore, we continue to pay close attention to DM+ and DM-. Ideally, we want to see them converge and perform a bearish crossover (on the daily time frame). At the same time, we want RSI, Stochastic, and MACD to continue declining. Besides these technical factors, we also observe the price action and sentiment in the stock market to which Bitcoin stays highly correlated (predominantly the tech sector). Interestingly, Coinbase reported its full-year 2022 earnings in the last week, which provides excellent insight into the corporate side of the cryptocurrency market. The company posted a net loss of $2.625 billion for the year (vs. net income of $3.624 billion during its record year 2021). Trading volume dropped from $1.671 trillion to $830 billion, with consumer volume dropping 68% and institutional volume falling 41%. Assets on the platform dropped from $278 billion to only $80 billion, representing a 71% decline. Coinbase’s performance was very weak in 2022, which hints at a still fragile market (and suggests that its competitors are hardly in much better shape). We believe tight financial conditions will persist throughout 2023, putting more pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies. As a result, we believe both of these sectors are very likely to drop below their 2022 lows. Accordingly, we stay bearish on BTCUSD and maintain our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD, resistance/support levels, and two simple moving averages. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
78
Top in for the Bitcoin's rally? Unfortunately, we were unable to update our thoughts during the week. However, we are back now and would like to provide new insights into the market. In the previous article, we said that in order to confirm our thesis about the bear market rally (rather than a bull market), we would like to see a smaller volume in the second leg up (in the price of BTCUSD) than in the first one. In addition to that, we introduced a setup with two alternative triggers. Since then, we have seen unimpressive volume accompanying the second leg up in Bitcoin’s price (one aligned with our thesis), followed by a bearish breakout below $24 258. At the same time, RSI and Stochastic have turned bearish, and MACD started to show signs of exhaustion. Furthermore, DM+ and DM- started to converge (if they perform a crossover, it will be highly bearish for BTCUSD). This overall picture leads us to speculate that Bitcoin’s rally might have topped. To support this thesis, we would like to see (ideally) a pick-up in volume accompanying a further decline in the price. Additionally, we would like to see a breakout below $22 314 and then $21 376. With that said, we remain bearish and stick to our thesis that the bear market is not over for the cryptocurrency market, which is yet to see new lows. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and the setup we introduced in our previous idea with updated support/resistance levels. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below $24 258. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
31
More and more people are getting hooked up Yesterday, we said the short-term trend reversal was not yet confirmed and laid out several conditions we wanted to see in order for it to be confirmed. Furthermore, we introduced a setup with a bullish bias above $22 314 and a bearish one below $21 454. A few hours later, the price broke above the resistance and soared more than 10%, reaching a new high since October 2022. Nevertheless, despite yesterday’s price action, we continue to think the rebound in Bitcoin does not represent a real “bull market.” In fact, we still maintain a bearish outlook beyond the short term. To confirm this assessment, we would like to see a lower volume (accompanying the price higher) in the second leg up than in the first one. As for the short-term, we would not be surprised to see the rally continue, especially if RSI breaks above 70 points and MACD strives to reverse (to the upside); though the inability of these indicators to follow through and sudden drop in volume will act as a warning sign. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action in the following days and seek more clues as to where Bitcoin might head next. On the endnote, with so many people getting hooked up on this "bull market" narrative, the wild rebound makes a good case for a strong move down later on. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.02 shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows point to the volume. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the hourly chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the previous peak. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
30
Bulls are unwilling to give up yetIn our previous article, we noted that we were growing increasingly bearish on Bitcoin. However, we also said that the short-term trend reversal was not confirmed yet, and we would like to see more developments suggesting the rally’s exhaustion. Ideally (to support a thesis about the trend reversal), we would like to see a bearish crossover between DM+ and DM- on the daily time frame. In addition to that, we would like to see a further decline in MACD (later followed by a crossover below 0 points) and RSI. Then on the weekly time frame, we would want to see MACD start flattening and being unable to break above 0 points. Regarding the price action, we will continue to watch levels at $21 454 (support) and $22 314 (resistance). If the price breaks to the upside, it will be bullish and hint at buyers being unwilling to give up yet (though we will monitor volume closely for signs of a fakeout). Contrarily, a breakout below $21 454 will be bearish. The current setup is displayed in Illustration 1.01. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. Two days ago, a breakout below the support took place; however, it quickly became invalidated. Then yesterday, the price broke above the resistance, which again did not last long. Now, the price stays stuck between support and resistance. We will wait for another breakout from this narrow range. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
101
The market is at a crossroadsOver the weekend, Bitcoin jumped above $22 000. However, the rebound did not last long, and Bitcoin fell toward the $21 700 price tag, where it currently trades. We have not yet seen developments confirming the short-term trend reversal (from bullish to bearish). Therefore we are very cautious and pay close attention to two particular price levels at $21 473 (support) and $22 314 (resistance). If the price breaks below $21 473, it will further bolster a bearish case in the short term; in such a scenario, we would like to see a pick-up in volume. On the other hand, a breakout above $22 314 will support a bullish case, potentially hinting at a retest of $22 500 and $23 000. Besides mentioned price levels, we also watch the price action in the stock market to which Bitcoin stays highly correlated. To support a bearish case, we would like to see stocks go lower, sparking risk aversion among investors. Contrarily, to support a bullish case, we would want to see the stock market start erasing some of its recent losses, providing aid for the cryptocurrency market. Overall, we would say that the market is at a critical point where it might either start breaking down or recovering losses and marching higher. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as another form of resistance. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA has a role of support. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the weekly chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a price retracement toward the 50-week SMA, which often coincides with the strong correction of a primary trend. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
39
Dreams and hopes about the bull market will get crushedWith the majority of the popular profiles being bullish all the time, we have seen them call for the market bottom and primary trend reversal multiple times in the past year and a half. Then since October 2022, when Bitcoin made a low of $15 479, these calls have become even more omnipotent, with people profoundly believing in their ability to assess the situation correctly and time the market. However, history has taught us that this is rarely true, especially regarding retail investors and lay traders. We continue to notice a lot of flawed opinions on TradingView, which forget to take into account fundamental driving forces of the market, including monetary policy and corporate earnings. In fact, some people like Alan Santana went as far as to say there will be no pullbacks in the “current” cryptocurrency bull market. Honestly, we do not know what to say about such statements anymore, only that they are promoted by people who do not know much about the market and chase clout instead. Unfortunately, it applies to 98% of the popular profiles on TradingView. Therefore, one should be wary that the number of followers does not equal market expertise or trading experience. With that said, Bitcoin trades near the $22 000 price tag, down almost 10% from its high on 2nd February 2023. The price slump follows numerous warnings we issued about the bear market rally and is no surprise to us. In our previous idea, we outlined that the daily time frame started to turn bearish. Furthermore, we said if the price dropped below the 20-day SMA, it would support a bearish case in the short term (especially if supported by a simultaneous decline in the stock market). A few days later, after our statements, this happens to be the case, and now, we would like to see increasing volume accompany a declining price. Our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000 stay unchanged. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout. If the price stays below the support/resistance, it will bolster a bearish case. Contrarily, if the price retraces above the level, it will be neutral/slightly bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
90
Daily time frame is turning slightly bearish, a warningBitcoin is down approximately 5% from its high of $24 258. At the moment, we are paying close attention to the price trading near the 20-day SMA. If the price breaks and holds below this moving average (acting as a support), it will bolster bearish odds and hint at a potential trend reversal. Simultaneously, to support a thesis about the reversal, we would like to see the volume continue to grow and accompany the price drop. In addition to that, we will also seek clues in the stock market, which stays highly correlated with risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we will watch Jerome Powell’s speech and expect him to reiterate a firm stance of the FED toward raising interest rates. As a result, this might spook a market that remains overly optimistic about the economic outlook in 2023. Over time, we expect the reality of bad earnings and more tightening to sink, leading to declines across the board for stocks and cryptocurrencies. With that said, our price targets for BTCUSD stay at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement of the price toward the 20-day SMA. A breakout below both 20-day and 50-day SMAs will be very bearish. Contrarily, if the price holds above the 20-day SMA, it will be bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. If the price breaks below Immediate support/resistance, it will add to a bearish case; the same applies to a breakout below Support 1. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
48
XRP - Bullish SentimentI have started buying XRP in large amounts. My POI (Point Of Interest) has been mitigated at around $0.35 . Liquidity has been engineered at two zone points - $2 and $3.3. Market-makers will seek to take out any SL's placed at those zone points before price drops again. Many retail traders will also be induced into the wrong side of the market at those points. See you at the top!!! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Smart Money Trading is king! Patience is of utmost importance.
XLong
by SMCSmartSniper1
6
Bear market rally continuesOver the weekend, Bitcoin reached a new high of $23 954 before faltering back to $23 000 today. Unfortunately, the move to a new high occurred again during the weekend when the volume is generally lower than during the week, allowing for easier price manipulation. Therefore, we are raising another question about the rally's health (regardless of how bullish this new high is in the short term). In the coming days, we will continue to pay close attention to volume, which has been flashing warning signs with each Bitcoin’s move higher. Furthermore, we will be very cautious due to the FOMC meeting and a high probability of an increase in volatility. Since our previous assessment, not much has changed; we still believe the current rally is merely another bear market rally. Therefore, we maintain our price targets for BTCUSD at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow indicates the decline in volume accompanying the price increase, which is worrisome. In fact, it continues to support a bearish case beyond the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
37
Bitcoin's price action is growing increasingly erraticYesterday, Bitcoin endured a volatile session with an early plunge to $25 000, followed by a rebound to a new high of $23 815. Interestingly, the price action occurred after the U.S. stock market closed and was characteristic of profit-taking, lasting merely a few minutes. This ties to a pattern of wild moves to the upside after the market close or during the weekends when the futures market for Bitcoin is closed, leading to low volumes (and easier manipulation of the price). That raises additional questions about the health of the current rally and makes us stay very cautious and look for signs of weakness, which could suggest a short-term trend reversal. As for our outlook beyond the short-term, we remain bearish and maintain our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. That is because we continue to foresee institutional problems in the cryptocurrency market, more economic tightening on the level of central banks, and ongoing earnings recession (all weighing on stock and cryptocurrency markets). Furthermore, the current rally matches our description of a bearish case we outlined in its early start (we wanted to see the rising price and declining volume throughout the rally). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD and the run-up in the price after the U.S. stock market closed yesterday. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD dating back to the 20th (Friday) and 21st of January 2023. The yellow arrow indicates the U.S. stock market close going into the weekend. Interestingly, during the weekend, price action was livid. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD dating back to the 13th (Friday) and 14th of January 2023. Once again, the price action was very livid during the weekend. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow indicates a declining volume accompanying the price increase. Low volume near high price tags continues to hint at fewer buyers willing to buy Bitcoin after such a price rise. The same decline can also be observed across most other exchanges (besides Bitstamp) and in the futures market. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
52
FOMO, market euphoria, and the market set for the repricingBitcoin is up approximately 46% since its 2022 low, and market euphoria is taking over. There is a tremendous increase in ideas claiming a primary trend reversal (from bearish to bullish) and people dismissing any chances of a recession in 2023. However, we want to take a step back and ignore the noise. Over the past year (since the 2021 market top), there were four rallies (excluding the current one); on average, they lasted 40.7 days and returned 35.3%. During that same time, there were five significant selloffs; on average, they endured 42.6 days and erased 41.5% of the value. The current rally (from the 2022 low) has continued for 63 days and returned approximately 46%, which does not represent anything out of the ordinary compared to previous rallies in the past year (see Illustration 1.01 and Illustration 1.02). In addition to that, the stock market has been gaining over the past few weeks, providing a lift to highly correlated cryptocurrencies. However, with tech earnings in progress and many big names set to report their full-year 2022 results in the coming days, the sentiment may change quickly. As if it was not enough, the daily volume has shown a significant decline after Bitcoin broke above $21 000, raising questions about the rally's sustainability. Therefore, just like on previous occasions with deceitful rallies in the past year, we raise a word of caution to market participants. Overall, there are still many problems in the system, which should be reminded to investors by the latest bankruptcy of Genesis, with more than $5 billion in liabilities (and implications for Gemini, DCG, and other institutions). Thus, we remain very skeptical about the current rally, which is reminiscent of “FOMO” rather than a healthy recovery. As a result, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The length and magnitude of particular price moves between peaks and troughs in the bear market can be seen. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows additional price moves between peaks and troughs in the past year. Interestingly, 63 days have passed since the last trough displayed on the chart. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. For the first half of January 2023, the volume can be seen rising, which is bullish. However, with Bitcoin breaking above $21 000, a worrisome drop in volume can be observed. In our previous article, we outlined that such development would support a bearish case beyond the short term. Therefore, we are very cautious and looking for more signs of exhaustion. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
52
The narrative about XRP becoming CBDC is misleadingWith the recent rally in the cryptocurrency market, the XRP community is becoming overly bullish again. As a result, we see double, triple, four, and even five-digit price targets being promoted with assurances that nothing will ever go wrong for XRP. However, we would like to remind our audience that there is nothing like risk-free investment in the trading industry. Unfortunately, it seems that with each rally, new ridiculous ideas come to light. Recently, there has been much speculation about central banks adopting XRP as Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). As for the United States, there is no mention of such plans on the FED’s website or even in Project Cedar (one which is responsible for the development of CBDC). Regarding Saudi Arabia, which signed a blockchain deal with Ripple in 2018, the story does not seem to be different. The subject of this deal was to create a pilot program for Saudi banks related to cross-border billing account technology (and not to use XRP as CBDC). Furthermore, in 2020, Project Aber (in conjunction with the central bank of UAE) concluded the following: “Note that public blockchain protocols such as Ripple and Stellar, which are often positioned for cross-border remittance use cases, were ruled out because of the obvious need for permissioning and privacy for an interbank payment use case (which these protocols did not support).“ To sum up this quick take on XRP as CBDC, we believe central banks do not need to adopt an already existing cryptocurrency when they can issue one of their own (without dealing with the troubled past of XRP and its executives). Therefore, we warn market participants about this misleading narrative. *If anyone knows more about the subject and plans of any central bank using XRP as CBDC, please share them with us.* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XRP and the relationship between the price and volume. Over the past two weeks (since 9th January 2023), the volume has declined, accompanying the price increase. That is not a particularly bullish development as it hints at fewer buyers near high price tags. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish (but the trend is very weak) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Tradersweekly
44
Another pump and dump or an honest rally?More than a week ago, XRP reached our short-term price target of 0.30$ in a brief and sharp selloff. However, since then, the price has erased its losses and gained over 20% from the low. Interestingly, this retracement coincides with the price returning to the 50-day SMA, which is usually associated with corrections of the primary trend. Therefore, we will pay close attention to this level and its ability to halt further price rise; a breakout above it would hint at a very strong correction of the downtrend (and potentially to a continuation of the rally/trend reversal). In such a case, we will pay close attention to volume levels and whether they will be sufficient to propel the price higher. Since the lows, the volume-price trend has been bullish; therefore, we will look for a decline in volume to suggest the exhaustion of the rally. Furthermore, we will closely observe the stock market to which cryptocurrencies are highly correlated. Based on the premise that the U.S. market is set to dive deeper into a recession in 2023, there is a very high likelihood of the stock market returning to lows, dragging XRP with it. Therefore, we think it is too early to announce the start of a bull market. Despite that, we can not ignore the lack of follow-through with the price action in the selloff to 0.30$. Therefore, if the price breaks and holds above the 50-day SMA (without signs of a significant decline in volume), we will be forced to abandon our medium-term price target of 0.28$ for XRP. At that point, it will be better to wait on the sidelines and wait for the picture to clear out before setting new price targets. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XRPUSD. Yellow arrows indicate price retracements to moving averages. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the weekly chart of XRPUSD. Yellow arrows indicate price retracements to moving averages. Constellation of 20-week and 50-week SMAs stays bearish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.03 The weekly chart of XRP shows the declining volume as a sign of decreasing selling pressure and drying up liquidity, which may lead to more volatile movements. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 displays the daily chart of XRPUSD. Green and red arrows hint at the price-volume trend over the past few days. Growing volume with the price is bullish for the short term. We will look for the decline in volume for signs of exhaustion in the price rally. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Tradersweekly
35
Rising too high, too quickly?Recently, Bitcoin broke above the narrow range we showed in previous articles. Subsequently, it gained bullish momentum, rising to $21 456. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency paused its climb slightly below the resistance at $21 473. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, the inability to break above the resistance might suggest a faltering bullish momentum. Therefore, we will pay close attention to volume levels. To support a bullish case, we want to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a (further) price increase. Contrarily, to support a bearish case, we want to see low volume near high price tags (and then, ideally, a pick-up in volume accompanying a price drop). Overall, the price of Bitcoin is rising too quickly (and too high), which is more reminiscent of the FOMO (fear of missing out) behavior among market participants rather than a genuine primary trend reversal. Due to that, we are very cautious about this recent move and think it is still too premature to call the market bottom. We expect the U.S. earnings season to reveal more underlying economic problems and enforce the notion of the market progressing deeper into recession. As the cryptocurrency market stays highly correlated to the stock market, we expect this to weigh on it down the road. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000 (though, in the short-term, we do not rule out continuation higher). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Bullish volume accompanying the price rise can be seen on a decline, which is worrisome. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the hourly chart of BTCUSD. Volume can be seen dropping near high price tags, casting a sign of weakness. However, low liquidity may allow for volatile movement to either side. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
92
BTCUSD breaks above $19 000; has a new bull market begun?In our last post on Bitcoin, we reiterated our bearish stance (beyond the short-term). However, we also allowed for the possibility of BTCUSD moving higher after breaking above $17 250 (the upper bound of a narrow range). Since then, the volume has seen gradual growth accompanying a price increase of more than 10%. Furthermore, the daily time frame has managed to turn bullish. At the same time, the stock market has been enjoying gains, providing support for the cryptocurrencies, which stay highly correlated to it. As we stated in our last idea, we expect this combination of bullish factors to have no impact on the primary bearish trend. As a result, we will pay close attention to market developments and technical factors (especially volume). We expect earning season in the stock market to reveal more underlying economic problems, eventually leading to lower prices and also affecting cryptocurrencies. Conclusively, we expect the bear market to unravel further in the coming months, taking Bitcoin to new lows. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. *As the answer to the question "has a new bull market begun?" - No, that is very unlikely.* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and the narrow range formation with the breakout above its upper bound. Green arrows indicate growing volume accompanying an increasing price, which is bullish. However, after the breakout, the price rose approximately 10% (only within three days). We will observe volume (area of interest) and look for a decline, indicating the rally's exhaustion; contrarily, no decline in volume will suggest a continuation of the rally (for the short term.) Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the bullish breakout above the alternative resistance level. Interestingly, SMAs are in a bullish constellation. Although, the recent lack of trend can cause them to produce misleading signals due to whipsaws. Currently, the price is too far from its SMAs, which might foreshadow a retracement. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over the recent move up. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD and several previous downtrend corrections. As a matter of fact, these corrections often ranged between 20% and 40%, which means the current rally might turn out to be nothing out of the ordinary (only another fake rally). In our opinion, the current price is very attractive for the short position. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
39
Bitcoin is getting stuck within the narrow rangeBitcoin is getting stuck within the narrow range, manifesting a neutral trend. It currently trades near $17 200, which is slightly below the range's upper bound. In the big picture, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin. However, the lack of a trend makes a case for both scenarios, bullish and bearish. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the price action and setup we introduced a while ago (displayed in Illustration 1.01). If the price breaks above the range, then we may expect a short-term rally. Though, in such a scenario, we do not expect it to impact the primary bearish trend. At best, we can imagine BTCUSD rallying to $20 000 (but we are very skeptical about that). Therefore, if a breakout to the upside occurs, we will monitor volume and look for signs of exhaustion. Contrarily, a breakout to the downside will bolster the bearish case, potentially leading Bitcoin to new lows. In addition to what we stated, the bullish case can get additional support from the stock market (if it continues higher), providing a temporary lifeline for cryptocurrencies. However, if that happens, we once again expect it to be only short-lived. With that said, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and a series of breakouts from the narrow range with subsequent invalidations; the range grows in significance. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support/resistance levels for BTCUSD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
27
Narrative of growing interest in BTC is nonsenseOver the past two months, Bitcoin’s volatility and volume have diminished significantly, which hardly supports the bullish narrative about the growing interest in Bitcoin. At the same time, active addresses holding Bitcoin dropped from 5 165 158 on 7th November 2022 to only 4 585 372 on 26th December 2022 (based on the information obtained from Glassnode), suggesting that people are holding their coins rather than buying more of them. In addition to that, attempts by several countries like Brazil and Nigeria to move closer toward designating cryptocurrencies as legal tender had no impact on the market whatsoever. That brings us to one rudimentary question in the highly speculative market (the one we already asked before) “If everyone is holding their Bitcoin and waiting for the price to go up so they can sell, who will push the market higher?”. This question is very troubling, considering that the global economy is poised to dive deeper into recession in 2023, and average investors are set to run out of savings due to growing prices of consumer goods and services (due to high inflation, which is here to stay). In fact, we expect many of these people to be forced to sell their holdings later. Furthermore, with no stimulus check handed to people from the U.S. government, we do not expect Bitcoin to repeat its success between 2020 and 2021 (at least not so soon, if ever). Contrarily, we expect much more pain for the overall cryptocurrency market and new lows to be formed in Bitcoin within the next month or two. With that said, we will pay close attention to the FED’s narrative and efforts of central banks (globally) to take on their own CBDC (Central bank digital currencies), which may threaten Bitcoin down the road. Accordingly, we stay bearish on the cryptocurrency market and maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. *See attached articles to view our calls since proposing the idea of a double top in November 2021.* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and the active setup. Yellow arrows indicate breakouts above and below the narrow range. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 The picture above illustrates the weekly chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow shows declining volume since early November 2022, which hardly supports the bullish narrative and growing interest in Bitcoin. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
54