Get started

Tokens

XRP's selloff heats upIn our previous post, we briefly discussed the relationship between the XRP’s price and market cap. Furthermore, we compared their various valuations to the equity market capitalization encompassing 59 400 companies listed on the World of Exchanges. Then, we said that we would like to see the price fail to break above the 50-day SMA in order to support our bearish thesis (while allowing for the temporary bounce above it, which would not present any threat to the primary downtrend). Subsequently, the price failed to break above the 50-day SMA and dropped from 0.365$ to below 0.34$. Currently, XRPUSD trades near the 0.338$ price tag. We continue to be bearish on the asset and maintain our price targets of 0.30$ and 0.28$. To further support our thesis, we would like to see the price break below its recent low (19th December 2022) near the 0.332$ price tag; meanwhile, we do not want to see a significant drop in volume. If the breakout is successful, we will pay close attention to 0.32$ and then 0.314$, which will act as a major support level since it is the lowest value following the XRP’s drop from 0.558$. *Check the attached articles to see the most important milestones on our XRP 2022 predictions roadmap." Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XRPUSD. We previously stated that the retracement toward the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA is a natural occurrence and often coincides with corrections of the primary trend. The yellow arrow indicates the price’s failure to break above the 50-day SMA, which is bearish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
16
BTCUSD within the narrow rangeOver the past week, Bitcoin’s volatility diminished significantly. Currently, it trades near 16 800$ and stays within the narrow range. For as long as the price stays within this range, we will remain neutral. However, beyond that, we stay bearish and maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. The setup remains valid with the bearish trigger accompanying a breakout below the range and the bullish catalyst with a breakout above it. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the setup for BTCUSD that has been in place for a while now. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
14
Will Binance fall? How low can Bitcoin go then?The price of Bitcoin faltered shortly after our previous post. Indeed, Bitcoin erased all of its gains and returned to the narrow range before breaking below it. Currently, it trades near the range’s lower bound at 16 800$. As for our stance, we continue to be bearish on BTCUSD and remain skeptical of calls for the market bottom. We believe the bear market has not ended, and Bitcoin will mark new lows over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. However, there are growing chances of Bitcoin dropping much lower than that. Especially if we consider that the stock market might be only halfway through the bear market and the economic situation will continue to deteriorate in the coming months. We view more interest rate hikes as very negative for Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency space, which is highly correlated with the stock market. As a result, we expect this to weigh on the corporate side of the market, which brings us to what many people have questions about - Will Binance fall? We simply do not know. But we know that a financial institution needs liquidity and to generate enough revenue in order to stay in business. In 2022, Binance’s competitor Coinbase has been having problems achieving the latter. The company has lost more than $1.9 billion in the first three quarters. In addition to that, Coinbase disclosed a staggering decline in trading volume from $327 billion to $159 billion(YoY) in the third quarter of 2022 (down from a peak of $547 billion. in Q4 2021). All that, while Coinbase has only about $8.1 billion in market cap. All that makes us wonder whether the systemic fall has to come from Binance. Perhaps, Binance might fall as a result of other companies going bust in one coordinated fashion. Therefore, we raise caution to a very high level. In the case of the systemic downfall, we foresee Bitcoin dropping below 10 000$. Illustration 1.01 To support our bearish thesis, we would like to see the inability of the price to hold above 16 800$. Furthermore, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a price lower. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. We would like to see a bearish crossover between these moving averages to further support our bearish thesis. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
33
SCCP FAN TOKEN logSCCP Price Live Data The live S.C. Corinthians Fan Token price today is $0.339214 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $57,846.95 USD. We update our SCCP to USD price in real-time. S.C. Corinthians Fan Token is down 0.21% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1365, with a live market cap of $928,710 USD. It has a circulating supply of 2,737,829 SCCP coins and a max. supply of 20,000,000 SCCP coins. If you would like to know where to buy S.C. Corinthians Fan Token at the current rate, the top cryptocurrency exchanges for trading in S.C. Corinthians Fan Token stock are currently DigiFinex, MEXC, and Chiliz. You can find others listed on our crypto exchanges page. SCCP FORECAST 140$ LONG TERM.
Long
by TrojanBible
2
Binance's withdrawals, FOMO, and no market bottomOver the past few days, many things have been happening in the cryptocurrency market. Binance experienced massive withdrawals of funds, exceeding $3 billion, Bitcoin jumped above 18 000$, and the FED raised interest rates by 50 basis points. However, despite many of these things, we continue to see bullish calls all over the place. We hate to do that, but once again, it is time for us to dismiss these calls for Bitcoin bottom and primary trend reversal. Yesterday’s spike above 18 000$ could result from various factors like Binance buying tokens on the market (to deliver them to people withdrawing their holdings), algorithmic buying, speculation about the pivot, and chasing the market by investors out of FOMO (fear of missing out). Whether these are real factors responsible for the price rise or not, after the FED hiked interest rates and Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s hawkish position, euphoria suddenly faded, and Bitcoin slumped toward 17 700$. Of course, that is no surprise to us as we repeated multiple times that there would be more economic tightening, pushing the market bottom further away. With that said, we do not believe the bottom has taken place. Indeed, we still maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and its retracement toward the 50-day SMA, which often coincides with strong market corrections. This level currently acts as a resistance level for the price. To support our bearish thesis, we would like to see Bitcoin hold below this level. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
91
The narrow range, upcoming rate hike, and market foesThe current week will bring exciting events to the cryptocurrency market, with the FOMC decision coming out on Wednesday. Currently, the FED is expected to hike rates by 50 basis points, which drives the narrative of a mini-pivot. However, we disagree with this assessment as we argue that higher rates will still put more burden on the economy, which is already slowing down significantly. As a result of the rate hike, we expect a return of the risk of aversion, affecting the price of Bitcoin and dragging it lower over time. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency market still has not gone through the fallout of FTX, leaving many questions about market stability open. In our opinion, the market will likely see more bankruptcies among cryptocurrency institutions in the coming months, threatening the current calls for the market bottom. Therefore, we remain skeptical about these statements and stick to our bearish view. In line with that, we maintain price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Bitcoin constituted a narrow range between 16 800$ and 17 250$ in the past few days. A breakout to the upside will be bullish for the short term, while a breakout to the downside will bolster bearish odds. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bearish Illustration 1.02 Two simple moving averages, 20-day and 50-day, stay in the bearish constellation. At the moment, the 20-day SMA acts as the immediate support level; a breakout below the support will be bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
30
Bitcoin fails to defend a 17 000$ pricetagOvernight, Bitcoin failed to defend a 17 000$ price tag as it dropped below 16 800$. The price remains choppy, and not much has changed within the past few days. Therefore, we continue to be bearish and maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. We will update our thoughts once new developments take place. Illustration 1.01 For the past week, volume declined, with the price going sideways. That hints at the exhaustion among buyers and raises our caution. To support the bearish thesis, we would like to see a continuation of selling pressure accompanied by a pick-up in volume. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
22
XRP not immune to the FED, settlement unlikely to be bullishFor the past few days, we did not give many thoughts to XRP as it continued to be choppy between 0.38$ and 0.42$. As a result, we abandoned our price targets in the previous article and introduced a setup for their re-activation. Since then, we have waited patiently for more signs of weakness to confirm our previous assessment about the unsustainable rally. In November 2022, volume continued to decline, indicating less trading activity at elevated prices. In addition to that, the total cryptocurrency market cap marked a new yearly low; and as if it was not enough, the overall situation in regard to fundamental factors did not change at all. The FED will continue its path of tighter monetary conditions, which will extort more pressure on the cryptocurrency market and drag prices lower. Furthermore, a potential settlement between the SEC and Ripple Labs, Inc. is about four months away. During that time, the FED is expected to raise interest rates at least once. As a result, we do not expect XRP to be any exception and become immune to tighter economic conditions. With that being said, we are also very skeptical about the general narrative considering the settlement as highly bullish for XRP. At the beginning of this bear market rally, we stated that this whole price action is very reminiscent of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” behavior. Today, we continue to hold this opinion and expect XRP to retest its recent lows over time. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the updated setup we introduced on 25th November 2022. Back then, we said that our price targets would become active once the price retraces back below the immediate support/resistance. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of XRPUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
31
Bear market progression and shift in the sentimentDuring the summer, we warned investors about the upcoming corporate underperformance and downgrades in forward guidance for the third quarter of 2022. We also stated that this would mark the transition from the first stage of the bear market into the second stage. Interestingly, we have noticed a similar trend in the cryptocurrency community. Numerous social media influencers, celebrities, and even investors like Mike Novogratz have started to reconsider their views on the market and backtracking on earlier predictions for sky-high prices. We believe this seismic shift in the sentiment among prominent people is analogous to what is happening in the stock market. Therefore, the market bottom could still be farther than many suggest. This view is supported by the fact that the FED will continue to tighten monetary conditions, which will inadvertently lead to higher risk aversion and lower prices for cryptocurrencies. In addition to that, the marketplace is still full of bullish calls for the primary trend reversal and market bottom, not suggestive of capitulation among investors. As a result, we continue to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Accordingly, our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$ stay unchanged. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Red, green, and white arrows show the relationship between the price and volume. If the price breaks above the short-term resistance, it will bolster the bullish case (for the short-term). However, we do not expect it to impact the primary trend. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
14
The ECB's strong message, dovish FED, and a high alertYesterday, Bitcoin broke above the 17 000$ price tag in spite of a strong message coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB). The official Twitter account of the ECB tweeted that the price of Bitcoin is artificially held up (at the moment) and that soon it will embark on a journey to irrelevance. This is an unusual statement from the European officials, leaving us only to speculate about the workings behind the veil. Therefore, this message puts us on high alert. The actual message from the official Twitter account of ECB: "The apparent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto-asset embarks on a road to irrelevance. #TheECBblog looks at where bitcoin stands amid widespread volatility in the crypto markets." Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Jerome Powell said during his speech that as soon as in December 2022, the pace of rate hikes might slow down. Despite this being nothing new, the market sought a pivot in Powell’s statements and rose across the board. However, the market discounts the fact that interest rates are here to stay for much longer than initially thought. Additionally, the market participants seem to ignore that rate hikes will continue to increase, putting more pressure on debt servicing and the overall economy. As a result, we expect the bear market to continue to unravel and drag prices of cryptocurrencies and stocks much lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages in a bearish constellation. The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement above the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with corrections and is bullish for the short term. Now, the 20-day SMA acts as a support level; meanwhile, the 50-day SMA acts as a resistance level. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
92
$1.5$ bn. moved, the FTX spillover effect, more trouble aheadOver the weekend, news came out that $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin was moved off the Coinbase exchange within less than 48 hours. In our opinion, this highlights high anxiety even among prominent market participants. Therefore, we voice a word of caution over the coming weeks. We believe more cryptocurrency exchanges will fall victim to improper money management, lack of due diligence, and the FTX spillover effect. With that being said, the names of the fifty biggest creditors to FTX remain unknown to the public, leaving room only for speculation as to who might belong to the list of affected parties. With over $3 billion of debt, we expect the announcement of these names to cause more havoc in the market. In addition to that, we expect more economic tightening and regulation to come in the foreseeable future, ultimately dragging the price of Bitcoin lower. Accordingly, we remain bearish on the asset and maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow hints at a substantial decline in volume over the past four weeks. In order to confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanied by a declining price. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
49
"HODL-ers" at all time highs but who will drag the price higher?Yesterday, we touched on the subject of people leveraging their positions in an attempt to catch Bitcoin’s bottom. We also expressed concerns about the current bounce in the cryptocurrency market being the usual “FOMO” (fear of missing out) among investors. Additionally, we noted that the tighter economy is here to stay, likely foreshadowing more trouble ahead. Today, we would like to take a look at the subject of “HODL-ers” (hold on your dear life; people who hold their cryptocurrencies and do not sell, regardless of circumstances). Over the past year, media news outlets have continued to inform the public about the number of “HODL-ers” growing month after month. To concisely illustrate our point, below are some of the headlines from articles on various cryptocurrency-related websites (from six different sources). 16th November 2022 - “Long term Bitcoin HODLers reaches all-time high” 26th August 2022 - “Research: Diamond hands are at an all-time high” 18th July 2022 - “Bitcoin hodling activity resembles previous market bottoms: Glassnode” 16th May 2022 - “Number of addresses with over 1 Bitcoin hits new all-time high despite volatility” 14th March 2022 - “Number of Bitcoin holders hits an all-time high record at almost 40 million addresses” 22nd February 2022 - “Number of Bitcoin “Hodlers” reaches new all-time high despite crypto market bloodbath” 17th January 2022 - “On-Chain Data Shows Number of ETH Holders At All-Time High” 28th December 2021 - “Veteran Bitcoin hodlers are still selling record low amounts of BTC despite 70% gains in 2021” 18th November 2021 - “Bitcoin holders who bought at $20K refuse to sell BTC at all-time highs - Latest data” Based on available data, the number of people holding their cryptocurrencies has continued to grow despite crashing prices. That ultimately brings us to a question - if all these people continue to buy dips in speculation of a primary trend reversal, then who will drag the price higher? In our opinion, within the market reliant so much on the next buyer, it is not a positive development. Therefore, we stay very cautious and continue to stick with our bearish assessment of the market. Accordingly, our price targets stay at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
31
CHZ CHEAPThe live S.C. Corinthians Fan Token price today is $0.503371 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $70,715.68 USD. We update our SCCP to USD price in real-time. S.C. Corinthians Fan Token is up 0.82% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1254, with a live market cap of $1,366,157 USD. It has a circulating supply of 2,714,019 SCCP coins and a max. supply of 20,000,000 SCCP coins. If you would like to know where to buy S.C. Corinthians Fan Token at the current rate, the top cryptocurrency exchanges for trading in S.C. Corinthians Fan Token stock are currently DigiFinex, and Chiliz. You can find others listed on our crypto exchanges page. SCCP FORECAST 300$
Long
by TrojanBible
FTX's hacker, heist, and no optimismOver the past two weeks, Ethereum enjoyed much attention, with media coverage about FTX’s hacker dumping his holdings on the market. Some of the recent activities in “FTX accounts drainers” - based on information from Etherscan. FTX accounts drainer 1 - 0x59ABf3837Fa962d6853b4Cc0a19513AA031fd32b 19th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 250 735 ($305 million) 21st November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 5 735 ($6.36 million) FTX accounts drainer 2 - 0xc40aBF7E6499694ea6F965Df96e39E51305E019a 12th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 1 287 ($1.6 million) 15th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 0 ($0) FTX accounts drainer 3 - 0x585ed783C9246553E8bC9f9046C80f54AfEE7765 12th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 13 205 ($16.5 million) 15th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 1.47 ($1844) Ethereum dropped more than 11% from Sunday to Monday before erasing some losses. A decline stopped slightly above the support level at 1071.50$, and since then, the price action has remained choppy. Apart from Bitcoin, ETHUSD did not constitute a new low for the year. Though it is nothing surprising if we consider how much better (seemingly) it has performed. That, however, does not change our view. We still hold a bearish stance and believe the bottom is not set in. As we noted over the summer (and several times thereafter), the attractive price for shorting is between 1 500$ and 1 600$ (or higher); however, from the current level taking a short position represents much more risk. With that let out there, we maintain our price targets at 1 000$ and 900$. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. Stochastic points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. MACD is flattening. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame MACD is neutral. Stochastic is bearish. RSI is slightly bearish/neutral. DM+ and DM- are stay bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
9
A new low, potential Genesis bankruptcy, and a new price targetYesterday, Bitcoin made a new yearly low at 15 479$. Furthermore, based on information published by various news outlets, Genesis Global Trading Inc. warned its investors about potential bankruptcy proceedings. As a result, this exchange joins our list of deeply troubled cryptocurrency institutions. Some of the troubled financial institutions in 2022 include: - Genesis - Celsius Network - FTX - Three Arrows Capital - Voyager - CoinFlex - Sky-Bridge Capital - Zipmex We believe this list will continue to grow in names as the FTX fallout has not been resolved yet. Accordingly, we wait for the names of the biggest creditors to be released, which could spark more fear and selling in the market. At the same time, we pay close attention to developments with Genesis exchange. If it declares bankruptcy, then matters will worsen substantially. The same applies to the attempts of the U.S. government to regulate the cryptocurrency world more tightly. Therefore, we remain bearish and maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the recent bearish crossover between the two moving averages. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
29
Bitcoin - BTCUSD stays down ≈75% from its ATHBitcoin continues to trade choppy near the 16 700$ price tag. On the daily chart, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic trend sideways, which is a sign of improvement compared to the preceding two weeks. However, we remain bearish as we do not expect fundamental factors to get better anytime soon. With the FED staying hawkish, we believe there is much more downside for the cryptocurrency market in the coming months. Indeed, we believe that the fallout with FTX has not been resolved yet, posing more obstacles for the market. In accordance with that, we stay committed to our price target of 15 000$. Momentarily, we will pay close attention to volume, which is currently very low. In order to confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanied by selling pressure. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD, two simple moving averages, and support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic trend sideways. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows a decline in selling pressure on the daily chart of BTCUSD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
10
El Salvador's Bitcoin adoptionToday, we prepared for our audience a concise article about the adoption of Bitcoin in El Salvador. Some facts about El Salvador El Salvador is a South American country of 6.5 million people and a GDP of $28.73 billion. Interestingly, El Salvador is one of three Latin American countries using the U.S. dollar as their national currency. The country's population has a relatively high literacy rate of about 90%. Despite that, in 2017, Consejo Nacional de Inclusión y Educacíon Financiera (CNIEF) found that only one-third of adults in El Salvador owned a bank account at a financial institution. Population = 6.5 million The poverty rate ($5.5/per day) = 22.2% of the population (2019) GDP = $27.73 billion (2021) GDP per capita = $4 408.52 (2021) Debt-to-GDP = 82% (2021) Government budget value = -$1.417 billion (2021) Government spending = $5.647 billion (2021) Government revenues = $6.038 billion (2021) Illustration 1.01 - Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow points to the date of El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin. Bitcoin adoption - Success or failure? In September 2021, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender, being the first country in the world to do so. That was quickly met with a wave of bullish calls for a new era of institutional adoption. However, in hindsight, this decision looks like an absolute failure, with the government wasting taxpayers' money to fulfill one man's dreams. The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, announced his first purchase of 200 Bitcoins on 6th September 2021, when the price of one coin traded at around 52 000$. The next day, he tweeted that his government bought another 200 Bitcoins at roughly the same price, taking the overall holdings of the country to 400 coins. Over the coming months, El Salvador continued to double down on a losing position, with more purchases in late November 2021, October 2021, December 2021, January 2022, May 2022, and June 2022. September 2021 - 700 Bitcoins near 52 000$ October 2021 - 420 Bitcoins near 58 000$ November 2021 - 100 Bitcoins near 54 000$ December 2021 - 171 Bitcoins near 48 000$ January 2022 - 410 Bitcoins near 36 500$ May 2022 - 500 Bitcoins near 30 000$ June 2022 - 80 Bitcoins near 19 000$ El Salvador has amassed 2 381 coins since September 2021. Based on Nayib Bukele's tweets, the country paid $105 million for its stash, now worth only $39.5 million, which amounts to more than a 60% loss. Nevertheless, this did not stop the president, who announced daily purchases of Bitcoins last week, starting on 18th November 2022. Illustration 1.02 - Nayib Bukele 2022 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD for 2022. White arrows highlight tweets of the president of El Salvador on the topic of Bitcoin. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
24
Bitcoin - The FTX's domino effectWith BlockFi added as another troubled company to our long list, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market. We believe that FTX's domino effect is still underway, and more companies will start coming forward to announce damages incurred in this cryptocurrency exchange fiasco. As a result, the industry will see the rise of more regulation in parallel to the 2008 crisis and Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. In our opinion, that will lead to the final capitulation in the market and drag the price of Bitcoin much lower from the current level. Over time, however, it might be positive as it will increase transparency and provide more safety for a consumer, potentially luring more institutional players and mass adoption. With that being said, we do not expect it to happen right away or anytime soon. We believe Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies still have a long way to go before reversing their primary trend. Accordingly, we stick to our price target for BTCUSD at 15 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA; now, these SMAs act as alternative resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Bitcoin - Quick updateOver the weekend, the price of Bitcoin slumped below 16 000$ before erasing some of its early losses. Currently, the price of one coin trades near 16 600$. So far, we have not changed our bearish view and remain committed to the price target of 15 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
27
Bitcoin - The market is poised to go SouthTwo days ago, we projected the downward sloping channel on the daily chart of BTCUSD. Since then, the price broke to the upside and retraced back to the channel, increasing the upper bound's significance (and again validating the pattern). Meanwhile, the market sentiment started to turn bearish, with many market participants giving up on hopes of the FED's pivot. As we also do not believe the FED will backtrack on its monetary policy in 2022, we think the mood is set to turn very grim in the month of September. Because of that, we will pay close attention to the FED's decision on the 21st September 2022. We expect the FED to raise interest rates from 50bps to 75bps, which will negatively affect the economy. As a result, we think the risk-on appetite will deteriorate and lead to high selling pressure. However, we will update our thoughts on that before the meeting. In terms of other fundamental factors, we see mounting evidence that the world has entered a global recession, with many real economies starting to feel it. Moreover, with central banks around the globe pursuing the destruction of demand, we think the evidence over the coming months will be even more apparent. Meanwhile, technical factors also point to the downside across various sectors; and across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. That bolsters our bearish conviction and makes us stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. However, we think the cyclical low might lie far below our price targets. Again, though, we will reassess our thoughts as the trend unravels. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the most recent technical developments on the daily chart of BTCUSDT. Yellow arrows indicate two bearish breakouts below prior support levels, a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, and a bullish breakout above the channel followed by the retracement. Additionally, the green arrow indicates increasing volume, which is ideal for confirming our bearish thesis. Now, we will pay close attention to the price action; ideally, we would like to see it take out its recent low at 19 510 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Additionally, several bearish developments are indicated by yellow arrows. Declining and increasing volume is shown by red and green arrows. We would like to see a breakout below the immediate support to confirm our bearish thesis. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 The chart above shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD; for this pair, the low needed to be taken out is 19 526 USD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
160
Bitcoin - Is FTX the Lehman Brothers of crypto?For weeks, we have warned investors about the unsustainable rally in the cryptocurrency market, and now, our price target of 17 500$ was finally hit. That comes to us as no surprise since we reiterated several times that no double bottom occurred and no primary trend reversal was on the horizon; already, in February 2022, we stated that no all-time high would happen this year. Instead, we made a compelling case for the bear market and have continued to do so while hitting one price target after another. With that being said, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin and dismiss new calls about the market bottom. In fact, we want to remind our audience of articles we published over the summer about Celsius Network's insolvency and its contingency spreading over to other cryptocurrency institutions in the coming months. Now it seems FTX joined the list of troubling companies, with Binance announcing the buyout of its distressed assets. In our opinion, that is a particularly bearish development, further drawing a parallel between insolvencies in the banking sector in 2008 and now (but in the cryptocurrency sector). Unfortunately, though, we do not expect any improvement in the market with the FED pursuing tighter economic conditions and potential regulatory fallout (as so many cryptocurrency exchanges are going bust). Contrarily, we believe the bear market is far from over, and Bitcoin will mark new lows over time. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 15 000$. *In the latter part of this article, we would like to introduce a part of Bitwise Asset Management's presentation to the SEC in March 2019. (about fake volume)* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD, and yellow arrows indicate the latest technical developments. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all show signs of faltering. DM+ and DM- is bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Bitwise Asset Management presentation to the SEC in March 2019 In March 2019, Bitwise Asset Management (which created the world's first crypto index fund) made a presentation to the SEC about fake volumes on major cryptocurrency exchanges. In its research, the company analyzed volume and trade orders across 81 exchanges listed on Coinmarketcap. Additionally, it argued that the data reported by the website were wrong (despite Coinmarketcap being widely referenced in media - The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, etc.). Bitwise Asset Management demonstrated the difference between real and suspicious exchanges (ones that were likely to engage in trade washing with the purpose of inflating trading volumes) by highlighting differences in the order book and showing discrepancies within the information available in the trading interface. For example, some exchanges showed buy and sell orders with roughly the same trade sizes, the absence of round numbers in the order book (despite the natural tendency of humans to pick rounded numbers), the lack of small transactions, perfect even distribution of buy and sell orders, and so on. However, researchers went beyond these technicalities and looked at these exchanges' footprints in the real world. Subsequently, by comparing publicly available data, they found a substantial difference between the real companies and suspicious ones (lacking media exposure, followers, number of employees, etc.). Furthermore, they analyzed trade histograms and applied several alternative data assessment methods. The 227-page presentation also touched slightly on the subject of Tether, market regulation, market surveillance tools, and market manipulation. In its findings, the company stated that at the time, only 10 out of 81 exchanges showed the presence of real volume, including Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken, Bitstamp, BitFlyer, Gemini, itBit, Bittrex. In addition to that, researchers concluded that the total volume was merely 4.5% of the reported volume (by exchanges) between 4th and 8th March 2019. As if it was not enough, the study stated that nearly 30% of spot bitcoin volume was on U.S.-domiciled exchanges, compared to just 1% of reported volume. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
66
Bitcoin - Do not get fooled by "double bottom" forecasts Bitcoin is up more than 5% after an overnight move. Despite that, we remain unshaken by the rising volatility and stick to a bearish outlook for the rest of 2022. At the moment, however, we will pay close attention to volume, price, and sloping resistance. If the price breaks above the sloping resistance, it will further bolster a bullish case for Bitcoin in the short term. In addition to that, we speculate that many people will try to forecast double bottom and buy here, dragging price higher. Although we do not expect relief to last and turn into recovery. Instead, we think a bounce will be very short-lived, and more downward pressure will follow. Additionally, we expect Bitcoin to mark new lows over time and reaffirm our bearish thesis. This view is supported by economic tightening on a global scale, rising volatility, and the market progressing into the second stage of the downtrend. Because of that, we remain committed to our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The recent decline in volume suggests temporary relief in selling pressure. Ideally, to further confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see declining volume as the price rises toward the sloping resistance. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is bullish. Stochastic points to the upside but stays in the bearish area; the same applies to MACD. DM+ and DM- are bearish, striving for the bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
93