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Tom Hall Market Review #12 - Wednesday, 10 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #12 - Wednesday, 10 April 2019 U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc The USD.CHF Daily price action continues to decelerate at the 1.000 horizontal structure resistance. Additional confluence factors consist of the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA. The 4-hour timeframe continues to form bearish RSI divergence indicating early signs of an intraday trend change. A break and close below .9977 confirms the trend change forming a new low, in addition to breaching the ascending trendline 50EMA, and 200EMA. Dollar weakness is expected over the coming months ( DXY analysis ) confirming a potential trade opportunity against the Swiss Franc. U.S. Dollar Index The DXY continues to trade below the 97.60 horizontal structure resistance dating back to June 2017. Additional signs of Dollar weakness are beginning to develop, including the bearish Weekly RSI divergence, Daily head and shoulders formation, and intraday trend change. The weakness identified confirms my U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc thesis, providing additional positive confluence factors as I monitor a trading opportunity. Euro / Japanese Yen In yesterdays Market Review #11 I outlined the multiple layers of confluence that consist of the 125.70 horizontal structure resistance, ascending trendline ( 15, January 2019 ), descending trendline ( 01, March 2019 ) 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. The Daily structure resistance was rejected as price action developed a bearish engulfing candle ( 09, April 2019 ). This candle confirms my trading rules as I await a valid entry on the 4-hour timeframe. The 4-hour timeframe continues to form HH's and HL's, this Indicates continued bullish pressure and no early signs of a trend change. A break and close below 125.12 is required prior to a trading opportunity.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
16
Tom Hall Market Review #11 - Tuesday, 09 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #11 - Tuesday, 09 April 2019 Euro / Swiss Franc - P/L +0.31% The textbook bullish engulfing candle that developed at horizontal structure support after an exhausted run presented a long opportunity. Trade Activated - Tuesday, 02 April 2019 The high-test reversal candle that developed on Friday wasn't a huge concern as my trailing stop loss was placed below intraday structure support. Unfortunately, our trailing stop loss was triggered on market open, closing the position prematurely at +0.31% There was an option to trail our stop loss at breakeven; this option would have returned more profit, however as we approach a potential deadline in Brexit negotiations it's my job to protect exposed capital. Balancing the negative and positive confluence indicated the risk became a little greater than the potential reward. Euro / U.S. Dollar The horizontal structure support at 1.1190 held price action after a low-test reversal candle formed on the 02, April 2019. The acceleration to start this week has presented a potential short opportunity quicker than expected as price approaches structure resistance. The structure consists of the descending trendline ( 09, January 2019 ), 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA. Additional development is still required as price action must show signs of deceleration, indicating the structure is being respected. Continued acceleration indicates the lack of orders at structure; this increases the potential risk and invalidates a trading opportunity. Euro / Japanese Yen This week the EUR.JPY is #1 on the currency pair trade watchlist given the multiple layers of positive confluence. The confluence consists of the 125.70 horizontal structure resistance, ascending trendline ( 15, January 2019 ), descending trendline ( 01, March 2019 ) 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. I'm simply awaiting a reversal candle to confirm rejection of the structure levels. This Friday's Brexit decision is a cause for concern and has been factored into the negative confluence. Should price action not develop before Thursday, this trade opportunity will be invalid due to increased risk. New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar The NZD.USD is some way from developing a short opportunity. However, there are early signs of development that I'll continue to monitor throughout this week. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI has confirmed early signs of an intraday trend change, for this to be confirmed a break and close above the 4-hour descending trendline resistance at .6770 is required. If / when price action accelerates I'll monitor development on the approach to .6800 horizontal structure resistance. To obtain a potential 4:1 reward comparative to risk on this opportunity requires patience, executing prematurely increases the risk of unnecessary drawdown.
by UnknownUnicorn180388