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Tom Hall Market Review #10 - Wednesday, 03 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #10 - Wednesday, 03 April 2019 U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc The USD.CHF Daily timeframe formed a high-test reversal candle on the 02, April 2019 after an acceleration back into the crucial structure. The structure consists of 0.9980 horizontal resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement ( 07, March High to 20, March Low ), and 50EMA. In addition, the Weekly timeframe bearish RSI divergence confirms my lower timeframe thesis. The reward to risk on this particular opportunity isn't great as we have to respect the Weekly 50EMA and ascending trendline support dating back to 12, February 2018. The positive comparative to negative confluence factors validate a trade opportunity. However, opening a CHF trade parallel to my EUR.CHF active position would increase my maximum exposure. Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc The AUD.CHF textbook Daily descending wedge formation presents clear levels of both support and resistance; this makes it easier to identify a take-profit and stop-loss placement. Although price-action continues to be trapped below the descending trendline, a breach of the previous lower-high on the 01, April 2019 confirmed early signs of a trend change; this indicates a breakout to the upside is highly probable. In regards to take-profit levels, there are two that hold the most significance. The first, is the Weekly descending trendline dating back to 08, January 2018, this aligns with the Weekly 50EMA, both of which provide a level of structure resistance at 0.7150 Second, is the high of 0.7230 testing the descending wedge and Weekly structure resistance. This option does carry more risk; however, there is an option to trail a stop-loss if / when price approached 0.7150 S&P 500 The strength of price-action since the 02, March 2009 historical ascending trendline rejection shows no signs of slowing down as it approaches Daily structure resistance. The final Daily structure available is at 2870, should price-action close above this a retest of the all-time high at 2935 is highly probable. I'll continue to sit on the sideline until confluence indicates a short term consolidation period is available.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
Tom Hall Market Review #9 - Tuesday, 02 April 2019Tom Hall Market Review #9 - Tuesday, 02 April 2019 Canadian Dollar / Swiss Franc The Daily timeframe developed a triple top and ascending wedge formation at the 0.7620 horizontal structure resistance. The 01, March 2019 acceleration caused price-action to collapse, breaching the ascending trendline support, 50EMA, and 200EMA. A consolidation period developed pulling back to 0.7550 before the continued acceleration providing a clear bearish trend. I waited for a second consolidation period back into the descending channel resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, and 50EMA. However, as price-action has failed to decelerate on the approach to structure, this trading opportunity is now invalid. Although this trade opportunity failed to confirm my entry rules, I outline the structure as it's paramount traders understand that no matter how positive the confluence in a small trading zone, it may not necessarily validate a trade opportunity. Euro / Swiss Franc The Daily bearish trend dating back to the 19, April 2018 provides a broader view of the overall structure; this information becomes more relevant when identifying exit levels. Price-action found support at 1.1160 forming a bullish engulfing candle, this in addition to the oversold RSI status confirms how overextended price-action has been. The 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes presented day trading opportunities with multiple layers of confluence; this confirmed my higher timeframe thesis. The healthy 2.5:1 reward comparative to risk allowed myself and clients to execute a long position on Tuesday, 02 April 2019. Euro / Japanese Yen The EUR.JPY short term trend dating back to the 01, March 2019 lacks historical structure; however the multiple layers of positive technical confluence at 125.50 provides a narrow trading zone. Technical confluence consists of the 125.50 horizontal structure resistance, ascending and descending trendline resistance ( confirming channel ), 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, and 50EMA. Additional development is required throughout this week as a deeper consolidation period is required. USOIL The long awaited 60.00 Weekly and Daily structure that had been identified on Market Review #1, #4, #5 and #6 failed to hold the bullish pressure. The Daily ascending wedge formation is no longer relevant as the Weekly price-action continues to accelerate approaching the ascending trendline structure resistance dating back to 18, January 2016. The RSI approaches overbought status on both the Daily and Weekly timeframes confirming the overextended run. Although I'm still bearish long term a significant amount of confluence are required to develop before presenting a short opportunity.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #8 - Tuesday, 26 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #8 - Tuesday, 26 March 2019 Euro / Japanese Yen The rejected Weekly horizontal structure resistance at 127.30 confirms my Monthly bearish thesis. Additional protection of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA provide a clear trading zone. The Daily and 4-hour ascending trendline break and retest at 125.00 provides a level of interest, from both an entry and stop loss perspective. Additional confluence includes a Fibonacci cluster and the Weekly Pivot. The positive comparative to the negative confluence is enough to justify a trading opportunity. However, the minimal reward given the lack of structure requires a timed entry on the intraday timeframes. I will continue to monitor the development of price action throughout the week. Bitcoin I previously outlined in Market Review #5 that predicting Bitcoin's next significant move is immensely tricky; the equilibrium between buyers and sellers confirms the indecision approaching the descending trendline dated 30, April 2018. The Daily ascending trendline was breached on the 25, March 2019; this provides an early indication of the potential downside in the coming weeks. You can never be too cautious trading indecisive markets; Its paramount patience is the priority as we await clear direction. Gold / U.S. Dollar The request from traders to provide my opinion on the development of Gold has increased in recent weeks, the head and shoulders formation developing on the Daily timeframe has been at the center of question. Drawing a descending trendline connecting the neckline of the head and shoulders formation immediately outlines why it's not an optimal formation to trade. The angle is too severe and would require a decline from 1320.0 to 1270.0 This would require an overextended run that would inevitably eat into potential profit. Trading the common neckline breakout would require a significantly substantial stop loss above all structure levels. In my opinion, this particular head and should formation has no profitable edge, the lack of structure in addition to the large risk comparative to reward invalidates a trading opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #6 - Thursday, 21 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #6 - Thursday, 21 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Active Position - Tuesday, 12 March 2019 I outlined in Market Review #5 the 4-hour timeframe consolidated deeper than initially expected, this caused drawdown to exceed 0.40%. The 4-hour horizontal structure at 83.60 held price action for three consecutive days. The acceleration finally kicked-in helping price to breach the 50EMA and 200EMA taking the active position back to breakeven. A break and close below 82.60 would indicate a higher timeframe trend change, providing more positive confluence to our active position. Euro / U.S. Dollar The descending channel outlined on the Daily timeframe failed to hold, as price breaches the previous structure high at 1.1390 on the 20, March 2019. Currently, there's no trade opportunity given the minimal reward comparative to risk and substantial stop loss required. However, the breach of both Daily and Weekly structure has my attention as price develops throughout next week. The 1.1600 horizontal structure resistance and 200EMA align, providing a clear trading level to target should an opportunity present itself. New Zealand Dollar / Swiss Franc I urged inexperienced traders in Market Review #5 to trade the NZD.CHF with caution, due to the high potential of traps that would cause unnecessary drawdown. A breach of the Daily ascending trendline on 20, March 2019 caused many traders to execute a short position prematurely, my concern was the Daily 50EMA support and the 4-hour bullish RSI divergence. The positive confluence failed to outweigh the negatives, confirming my thesis and invalidating a trade opportunity. USOIL The long-awaited, highly anticipated Weekly structure at $60.00 is now under pressure as we approach market close. The Daily overbought status in conjunction with the 4-hour bearish RSI divergence indicates early signs of weakness, confirming my higher timeframe thesis. Additional development on the Weekly timeframe is required to confirm a trading opportunity. Prematurely executing a short position could cause unnecessary drawdown.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #7 - Sunday, 24 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #7 - Sunday, 24 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Weekly Timeframe - The Weekly timeframe developed a high-test reversal candle on the 25, February 2019 rejecting the 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. There's certainly an argument to enter the market once a high-test reversal candle formed rejecting structure. However, it's paramount clean technicals develop on the Daily and 4-hour timeframe prior to entry. Daily Timeframe - The ascending wedge formation dating back to the 03, January 2019 squeezed price action on the approach to the Weekly structure previously outlined. A high-test reversal candle formed rejecting the 84.20 horizontal structure resistance, in addition to breaching the ascending trendline structure support. The acceleration that developed throughout the first week of March confirmed my higher timeframe thesis. Once price breached the Daily 50EMA, I delved deeper into the intraday timeframes to identify a trade opportunity. 4-hour Timeframe - The large sell-off from the 84.20 Weekly and Daily structure meant the 4-hour timeframe was overextended on the RSI, this indicates a consolidation period is highly probable. Drawing a Fibonacci from the swing high at 85.23 to the swing low at 82.40 presented a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at the 50EMA, 200EMA, and Weekly Pivot. A short position was initiated on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 after the 1-hour timeframe approached overbought status confirming the deceleration. Activated: 83.066 Stop Loss: 84.527 Take Profit: 80.759 Trade Closed Manually: It's very rare I close positions early; however, on this occasion there was a basket of negative confluence factors that could not go unnoticed. The sell-off from the high at 84.08 to 82.31 caused the 4-hour, 1-hour and 15-minute timeframe to be oversold. In addition to the technicals, we were quickly approaching the CAD economic data, the consensus was not favorable to our active position and ultimately adding negative confluence. The option to adjust our stop loss to breakeven and await a consolidation period was unavailable due to the 4-hour 50EMA exceeding our initial entry at 83.06. Capital At Risk: 0.50% Reward / Risk: 1.58:1 Maximum Drawdown: 0.40% Total Profit: +0.26%
by UnknownUnicorn180388
Tom Hall Market Review #5 - Sunday, 17 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #5 - Sunday, 17 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY (S) was executed on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 after presenting textbook technicals and healthy reward comparative to risk. Technicals consist of the weekly 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. Daily ascending wedge breakout, 84.20 horizontal structure and 200EMA providing additional structure. A timed entry was initiated after deceleration occurred approaching the 50EMA, 200EMA, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, and 83.60 intraday horizontal structure resistance. Throughout last week the 4-hour timeframe consolidated deeper than initially expected. However, once the intraday ascending trendline was breached price accelerated, closing back below 83.60 horizontal structure support. The CAD.JPY (S) position remains active. Stop loss placement is protected above all significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes. Adjusting or closing this position at 0.21% DD would be the result of emotional and impulsive behavior, and not reading the technicals available. Euro / U.S. Dollar Twenty nineteen has presented a textbook descending channel that outlines trading levels inside a 45 Pip range. The minimal reward comparative to risk at 2:1 isn't a huge concern should the additional development on the 4-hour timeframe confirm my entry criteria. Analyzing the weekly timeframe indicates the retest of the descending lower trendline on the daily timeframe was a false breakout of the 1.1300 horizontal structure support on the weekly timeframe. This information doesn't impact a swing trading position due to the larger stop loss required. New Zealand / Swiss Franc The NZD.CHF has entered a crucial trading zone that will be significant as we progress through next week. Inexperienced traders should treat with caution due to the traps likely to develop. The weekly high-test reversal candle and bearish RSI divergence indicate a breach of the daily ascending trendline is highly probable. However, the months of indecisive price action could catch many unprepared traders in both bull and bear traps. With this in mind, I require additional development throughout next week to present more positive confluence factors. S&P 500 The ascending channel breakout rejecting 2815.0 on the 04, March 2019 was short lived after a low-test reversal candle formed rejecting the Daily 50EMA. Intraday, the 2815.0 is available as support as the price is expected to test 2870.0 Bitcoin Predicting Bitcoin's next significant move is immensely difficult; the equilibrium between buyers and sellers confirms the indecision approaching the descending trendline dated 30, April 2018. The two significant trading levels at 6130.0 and 3100.0 continue to be relevant as we await a descending trendline retest to occur. The reward comparative to risk is minimal; this is taking into consideration the structure previously outlined. USOIL On Sunday, 03 February 2019, I outlined the significant structure and potential trading zone at $60.00 This week I'm intrigued to observe the development of price, potentially presenting a short opportunity in the process. A doji / high-test reversal candle is required to indicate a rejection of key multi-timeframe structure resistance. The weekly structure consists of the $60.00 horizontal resistance, ascending trendline, 50.00% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA. A healthy reward comparative to risk has the potential to exceed 4:1
by UnknownUnicorn180388
5
Tom Hall Market Review #4 - Thursday, 14 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #4 - Thursday, 14 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY continues to consolidate deeper than initially anticipated. However, the 4-hour RSI has now entered overbought status at 83.14 indicating early signs of reversal. Drawing an ascending trendline from 08, March at 06:00 to the current value presents a level at 83.60 that price much breach before indicating a sell-off. Active Portfolio - CAD.JPY 0.34% DD S&P 500 A rejection of the 2815.0 horizontal structure resistance on the 04, March 2019 presented an ascending channel breakout on the daily timeframe. The continued acceleration in the first week of March indicated a large sell-off was highly probable. However, on the 08, March 2019 a low-test reversal candle formed rejecting the Daily 50EMA, confirming the oversold RSI status on the 4-hour timeframe. Currently, there's no trade opportunity or predicted direction until a significant break of 2815.0 has developed. USOIL I outlined in Market Review #1 that the $60.00 structure resistance continued to hold as the key trading level. Until any such time where price rejects or breaches this structure, I'll be sitting on the sidelines. Well, the price is now quickly approaching the trading zone at $59.00 I'll continue to monitor and update you on price action in the coming weeks as I delve deep into intraday price action to identify early signs of weakness.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY throughout March has presented clean technicals on the approach to significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes. A weekly doji, followed by an acceleration candle formed rejecting the 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates additional acceleration is highly probable. The ascending wedge and Daily 50EMA breakout confirmed my weekly timeframe thesis. However, additional development was required on the 4-hour timeframe to establish the timing of entry. Significant deceleration on the 4-hour timeframe approaching the 83.60 horizontal structure resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA presented a textbook trading opportunity and confirming my entry criteria. CAD.JPY (S) was initiated on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 British Pound / Australian Dollar The weekly 1.8600 horizontal structure resistance was rejected at the beginning of March. However, I wasn't convinced this would present a trade opportunity given that price continued to form HH's and HL's without the RSI testing overbought status. The Daily ascending trendline and 50EMA continued to provide support, confirming my weekly timeframe concerns. Although technically price was still bullish, I was happy to execute a quick 1:1 position, targeting the structural support. The 4-hour timeframe failed to consolidate after the breach of ascending trendline and 50EMA, invalidating any trading opportunity. Of course, the indecision surrounding Brexit was a cause for concern, and considering the technicals were less than great I was happy not to execute a position. British Pound / Canadian Dollar The 1.7570 weekly horizontal structure rejection presented a level of interest after a period of indecision. The RSI failed to provide an overbought status or divergence, indicating a sell-off would be short-lived. Daily timeframe structure helped identify a clear trading zone that would present a potential take profit level, should the intraday timeframes align. The 4-hour trend change provided an additional positive confluence factor. However, as price developed it was clear a consolidation period back into intraday structure resistance wouldn't be enough to convince me to execute a short position. An active position was not initiated for two reasons. 1. The CAD.JPY short opportunity presented more reward comparative to risk, in addition to stronger confluence factors. 2. Similar to that of the British Pound / Australian Dollar, my concern surrounding the Brexit negotiations added to the negative confluence. Euro / Japanese Yen The EUR.JPY presented all the positive confluence factors that are required before executing a position. Weekly bearish engulfing candle rejecting the 127.30 horizontal resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA. The Daily timeframe closed below the ascending and horizontal structure support, in addition to the 50EMA. The 4-hour also confirmed my higher timeframe thesis, with a breach of the ascending trendline and 50EMA. A consolidation period retesting the intraday 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA and 200EMA were expected and required before a short opportunity. I tallied up both positive and negative confluence factors on the CAD.JPY and EUR.JPY, by doing so allowed me to identify the highest probability for both currency pairs. The CAD.JPY (S) was initiated due to the additional structure levels between our entry and stop loss. Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen The CHF.JPY weekly timeframe provided a firm rejection of the 112.00 psychological horizontal resistance, descending trendline, 50EMA, and 200EMA. Similar to that of the EUR.JPY, I tallied up the confluence factors against the CAD.JPY. The CHF.JPY daily timeframe failed to provide a structure or clear trend, this added to the negative confluence and inevitably wasn't as favorable compared to the other Japanese Yen pairs on the trade watchlist.
by UnknownUnicorn180388