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Tom Hall Market Review #5 - Sunday, 17 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #5 - Sunday, 17 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY (S) was executed on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 after presenting textbook technicals and healthy reward comparative to risk. Technicals consist of the weekly 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. Daily ascending wedge breakout, 84.20 horizontal structure and 200EMA providing additional structure. A timed entry was initiated after deceleration occurred approaching the 50EMA, 200EMA, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, and 83.60 intraday horizontal structure resistance. Throughout last week the 4-hour timeframe consolidated deeper than initially expected. However, once the intraday ascending trendline was breached price accelerated, closing back below 83.60 horizontal structure support. The CAD.JPY (S) position remains active. Stop loss placement is protected above all significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes. Adjusting or closing this position at 0.21% DD would be the result of emotional and impulsive behavior, and not reading the technicals available. Euro / U.S. Dollar Twenty nineteen has presented a textbook descending channel that outlines trading levels inside a 45 Pip range. The minimal reward comparative to risk at 2:1 isn't a huge concern should the additional development on the 4-hour timeframe confirm my entry criteria. Analyzing the weekly timeframe indicates the retest of the descending lower trendline on the daily timeframe was a false breakout of the 1.1300 horizontal structure support on the weekly timeframe. This information doesn't impact a swing trading position due to the larger stop loss required. New Zealand / Swiss Franc The NZD.CHF has entered a crucial trading zone that will be significant as we progress through next week. Inexperienced traders should treat with caution due to the traps likely to develop. The weekly high-test reversal candle and bearish RSI divergence indicate a breach of the daily ascending trendline is highly probable. However, the months of indecisive price action could catch many unprepared traders in both bull and bear traps. With this in mind, I require additional development throughout next week to present more positive confluence factors. S&P 500 The ascending channel breakout rejecting 2815.0 on the 04, March 2019 was short lived after a low-test reversal candle formed rejecting the Daily 50EMA. Intraday, the 2815.0 is available as support as the price is expected to test 2870.0 Bitcoin Predicting Bitcoin's next significant move is immensely difficult; the equilibrium between buyers and sellers confirms the indecision approaching the descending trendline dated 30, April 2018. The two significant trading levels at 6130.0 and 3100.0 continue to be relevant as we await a descending trendline retest to occur. The reward comparative to risk is minimal; this is taking into consideration the structure previously outlined. USOIL On Sunday, 03 February 2019, I outlined the significant structure and potential trading zone at $60.00 This week I'm intrigued to observe the development of price, potentially presenting a short opportunity in the process. A doji / high-test reversal candle is required to indicate a rejection of key multi-timeframe structure resistance. The weekly structure consists of the $60.00 horizontal resistance, ascending trendline, 50.00% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA. A healthy reward comparative to risk has the potential to exceed 4:1
by UnknownUnicorn180388
5
Tom Hall Market Review #4 - Thursday, 14 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #4 - Thursday, 14 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY continues to consolidate deeper than initially anticipated. However, the 4-hour RSI has now entered overbought status at 83.14 indicating early signs of reversal. Drawing an ascending trendline from 08, March at 06:00 to the current value presents a level at 83.60 that price much breach before indicating a sell-off. Active Portfolio - CAD.JPY 0.34% DD S&P 500 A rejection of the 2815.0 horizontal structure resistance on the 04, March 2019 presented an ascending channel breakout on the daily timeframe. The continued acceleration in the first week of March indicated a large sell-off was highly probable. However, on the 08, March 2019 a low-test reversal candle formed rejecting the Daily 50EMA, confirming the oversold RSI status on the 4-hour timeframe. Currently, there's no trade opportunity or predicted direction until a significant break of 2815.0 has developed. USOIL I outlined in Market Review #1 that the $60.00 structure resistance continued to hold as the key trading level. Until any such time where price rejects or breaches this structure, I'll be sitting on the sidelines. Well, the price is now quickly approaching the trading zone at $59.00 I'll continue to monitor and update you on price action in the coming weeks as I delve deep into intraday price action to identify early signs of weakness.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
7
Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019 Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY throughout March has presented clean technicals on the approach to significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes. A weekly doji, followed by an acceleration candle formed rejecting the 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates additional acceleration is highly probable. The ascending wedge and Daily 50EMA breakout confirmed my weekly timeframe thesis. However, additional development was required on the 4-hour timeframe to establish the timing of entry. Significant deceleration on the 4-hour timeframe approaching the 83.60 horizontal structure resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA presented a textbook trading opportunity and confirming my entry criteria. CAD.JPY (S) was initiated on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 British Pound / Australian Dollar The weekly 1.8600 horizontal structure resistance was rejected at the beginning of March. However, I wasn't convinced this would present a trade opportunity given that price continued to form HH's and HL's without the RSI testing overbought status. The Daily ascending trendline and 50EMA continued to provide support, confirming my weekly timeframe concerns. Although technically price was still bullish, I was happy to execute a quick 1:1 position, targeting the structural support. The 4-hour timeframe failed to consolidate after the breach of ascending trendline and 50EMA, invalidating any trading opportunity. Of course, the indecision surrounding Brexit was a cause for concern, and considering the technicals were less than great I was happy not to execute a position. British Pound / Canadian Dollar The 1.7570 weekly horizontal structure rejection presented a level of interest after a period of indecision. The RSI failed to provide an overbought status or divergence, indicating a sell-off would be short-lived. Daily timeframe structure helped identify a clear trading zone that would present a potential take profit level, should the intraday timeframes align. The 4-hour trend change provided an additional positive confluence factor. However, as price developed it was clear a consolidation period back into intraday structure resistance wouldn't be enough to convince me to execute a short position. An active position was not initiated for two reasons. 1. The CAD.JPY short opportunity presented more reward comparative to risk, in addition to stronger confluence factors. 2. Similar to that of the British Pound / Australian Dollar, my concern surrounding the Brexit negotiations added to the negative confluence. Euro / Japanese Yen The EUR.JPY presented all the positive confluence factors that are required before executing a position. Weekly bearish engulfing candle rejecting the 127.30 horizontal resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA. The Daily timeframe closed below the ascending and horizontal structure support, in addition to the 50EMA. The 4-hour also confirmed my higher timeframe thesis, with a breach of the ascending trendline and 50EMA. A consolidation period retesting the intraday 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA and 200EMA were expected and required before a short opportunity. I tallied up both positive and negative confluence factors on the CAD.JPY and EUR.JPY, by doing so allowed me to identify the highest probability for both currency pairs. The CAD.JPY (S) was initiated due to the additional structure levels between our entry and stop loss. Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen The CHF.JPY weekly timeframe provided a firm rejection of the 112.00 psychological horizontal resistance, descending trendline, 50EMA, and 200EMA. Similar to that of the EUR.JPY, I tallied up the confluence factors against the CAD.JPY. The CHF.JPY daily timeframe failed to provide a structure or clear trend, this added to the negative confluence and inevitably wasn't as favorable compared to the other Japanese Yen pairs on the trade watchlist.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
Tom Hall Market Review #2 - Friday, 08 March 2019Tom Hall Market Review #2 - Friday, 08 March 2019 Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen The AUD.JPY, unfortunately, failed to present a consolidation period before the continued decline, invaliding a short opportunity. The initial impulse is now approaching oversold on the 4-hour and daily timeframes, indicating a consolidation period into early next week is highly probable. Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen The CAD.JPY decline this week is the largest of this year. Unfortunately, we were unable to advantage of the move as price failed to present a consolidation period. Its occasions like this where traders become frustrated, executing positions when the price is accelerating, by doing so decrease your reward comparative to risk while exposing yourself to a significant amount of unnecessary drawdown. Euro / U.S. Dollar I approached this week with caution, given the conflicting information across multiple trading timeframes. Although indecisive, there were still trading opportunities available, but the timing of the entry was crucial considering the minimal reward/risk. The weekly descending trendline dating back to February 2018 and 1.1300 horizontal structure support presented a wedge formation; this outlined clear trading levels for both short and long opportunities. The possible reward comparative to risk for the short opportunity failed to exceed 1:1, this for me invalidated the opportunity. I then shifted my attention to a long opportunity; the intraday price began to decelerate on approach to the 1.1300 horizontal support. The equilibrium lasted only eight hours before the continued acceleration occurred, breaching the 1.1300 structure support and invalidating my long opportunity. U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc At the beginning of this week, I outline the lack of downside acceleration after the 1.0050 weekly rejection. Analyzing the daily timeframe confirmed my caution was justified. What looked to be a reversal on the weekly timeframe was merely a consolidation period on the daily timeframe. The negative confluence significantly outweighed any positives, invaliding a trade opportunity. I talk so often about utilizing multiple timeframes to identify traps; this is a textbook example of why it's so important to be hyper-aware of price action behavior. Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar This year the indecisive price action has failed to present a clear trading opportunity. However, I continue to analyze the multiple timeframes to gauge an early indication of the future direction. My focus moving forward is to monitor the weekly timeframe for a breach of the February 2018 descending trendline. The range between $4,200 and $6,130 is the zone where I'm looking to exploit and take advantage of the healthy reward comparative to risk.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn180388
EUR.JPY (S) - Thursday, 14 February 2019 / -0.5%Thursday, 14 February 2019 EUR.JPY (S) -0.5% A textbook trade opportunity that provided 7 positive confluence factors, in addition to a healthy 2.5:1 reward comparative to risk.\u2028\u2028 Drawdown as a financial trader is inevitable, it requires immense amounts of strategically designed mental strength to trust your strategy.\u2028 How you deal with these emotional demons moving forward will determine your future success. #Transparency
by UnknownUnicorn180388
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