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Tommytradingchannel

[Bitcoin] Doesn't know which way to go#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Bitcoin showed a strong bull trend the previous day, but it is a figure that has closed down by returning all of the bull trend. - The $41.5k-$41.9k resistance seem very strong. - The position of the previous day's high is at the center line of the orange bull trend, so if the decline continues as it is, the possibility of a bear trend should reopen to confirm the $37k-$37.7k support. - Since the lows have been lowered and the highs have been raised, it is possible to expect a large widening pattern or diamond pattern formation. - Response at this point in which the resistance of $41.5k-$41.9k has not been broken above seems to be high risk. It looks good to respond after confirming support at $37k-$37.7k or breaking above the $41.9k resistance, and I think it is safe to wait and see as much as possible between $41.5k and $39.5k.
by Tommy_Trader
3
[Bitcoin] Fortunate rebound before $37K, not 100% Bull yet#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Fortunately, after the last briefing, Bitcoin has risen above the green inward trend line without confirming the $37k support. - If Bitcoin show resistance at $41,132, which is the EQ value of the body of the Bearish Candle on March 21st, or closing the Daily Candle at $41,132 upwards, we can expect the possibility of further Bull Trend. - However, a short-term Bear trend may occur with a single resistance of $41.5k, since there is a possibility that a bull trend may appear again after the support of the green inward trend line, it seems high risk to respond with a short position. - As the resistance of $41.5k-$41.9k has not yet been broken out, there is a possibility of the appearance of a blue triangular convergence surrounded by a green inward trend line and a resistance of $41.9k. For short-term trading position, take a short-position near $41.9k with a stop loss set as tight as possible and take a long-position near the green inward trend line are considered to be the least risky. - If the $41.9k resistance is broken above the $44.2k-$44.5k resistance, we can expect a Bull Trend. - A break below the green inward trend line support should leave open the possibility of a rapid bear trend towards the $37k support on disappointment in upside expectations.
by Tommy_Trader
2
[Bitcoin] 37k-34k-25k-12k??#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Even the $41.5k support failed and the green mid-trend line support also failed. - Since the support area at $37k-$37.7k overlaps with the lower end of the orange bullish channel, the area $37k-$37.7k appears to be an important support area. - If the $37k support fails, you can expect support in the $34.2k-$34.6k area, which is the lower part of the very large blue bullish trend. - If you look at the orange bullish trend channel and the previous bearish trend, a bear flag pattern is being created. If a bearish breakout of the orange bullish trend channel appears and even the $34.2k support fails, a big bearish trend is highly likely. - The basic pattern target price of the bear flag pattern is confirmed to be between $25.8k and $12.1k. - It is not accurate, but it is known that the average Bitcoin price of major institutions’ position is between $28k and $32k. Therefore, the $34.2k-$34.6k support area is expected to be solid, but if the 34k support fails, the possibility of a bearish trend towards the $25.8k-$12.1k level should always be kept in mind.
by Tommy_Trader
5
What is a breakout? #breakout #Candlestick #TA #Tocademy Hello. This is Tommy. The lecture material I prepared today is a concept that must be well informed by TA(Technical Analysis) traders, especially in recent market where untraditional patterns, price actions and trends, as we call ‘scam moves’ occur all the time. I bet you are familiar seeing retail traders or chart analysts shouting “breakout!”. In order to derive market trends and price action/momentum, we find millions of technical variables such as trendline, channel, Fibonacci retracements, pivot levels, and other indicators, etc. Then we seek for behavior of price action by observing whether these variables are kept valid (not broken) or become invalid as soon as they are broken. Understanding and utilizing this behavior, we make trading decisions by deducting optimal zones to enter position(support/resistance), set stoploss/target price(bottom/top), and statistically giving weights on particular scenarios. In TA world, breakout means that the price has pierced through certain variables. It is commonly known that when the technical factors are broken, additional price momentum is expected towards the direction of the breakout. As the example above, let’s say that we found a falling trendline that are being formed, meaning that at certain point or area, trendline keeps pushing the price down forming LH(Lower High)s. As soon as the price pierce through the trendline, meaning that the trendline failed rejection, we say “trendline is broken above” and can expect more bullish rally. The direction of the trend would be vice versa when trendline under the price is broken below. So, we buy when PA is broken above and sell when PA is broken below. That sounds so simple huh? If it was that easy, everyone would be rich right now. I'm sure most of you reading this post are already aware that it's never easy. Why? It’s simple. In this world, there is no such thing as 100% “breakout”. To put it simply, everything we do based on the technical chart is somewhat relative, abstract, and subjective concept. It’s not like breakout has 100% succeeded, or failed but rather is more like breakout has succeeded in 60~70% chance. In other words, there are more than two possible future cases when we search and utilize breakout behavior. So, we traders need a reliable standard to statistically quantify the ‘degree of breakout’. The most basic way according to the ‘textbook’ is to consider closing price of candlestick firstly crossing the variable. As the price of the candlestick closes above the trendline as case 3, we give a decent weight on breakout scenario. However, case 2 is the one that confuses us every time. This is when the price did pierce through the trendline but closes below, usually leaving a long tail as a trace which sometimes is interpreted as a whipsaw. As soon as this happens, we have to admit that the chances and reliability is definitely lower than the case 3. It might be regarded as a false breakout or a noise if the trend continues afterwards and it might not actually. It’s a 50:50 call I would say. When you encounter case 2, to give you a little tip, try waiting a little more to observe next following candles. If the next following candlesticks keep closing prices below, I would raise the probability that the breakout is a false one. In fact, it is best to just not give any meaning on breakout in case 2. It itself is a risk to confirm whether the breakout is successful, not successfully, or false and thus try not take aggressive trades in this very case. Thank you for reading my posts. Trade Well! Your likes, comments, and subscriptions are the greatest motivations for me to upload more posts.
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BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
192
[Bitcoin] End up with 41.9k?? Where are you heading?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - After the last briefing, the $44.2k-$44.5k support failed and Bitcoin reached the $41.5k-$41.9k support area. - The $41.5k-$41.9k support area is an inflection section of the large VP area from Jan. 22 to Mar. 22, and it is important to see if this area is supported or not. - If the support is successful and Bitcoin rebounds, we can expect a Bullish trend to breakout the $44.2k-$44.5k resistance again. - However, the $44.2k-$44.5k resistance area served as strong resistance in the previous large VP movement, and the resistance of the sky blue high-trend line also overlaps, so we should continue to keep in mind the bearish trend before Bitcoin breaks out $44.2k~$44.5k with bullish trend. - If the $41.5k-$41.9k support fails, we should remain open to the possibility of a decline towards the $37k-$37.7k lower end of the orange uptrend channel. - However, if the support of the green mid trend line created during the formation of large VP is strong, even if the $41.5k-$41.9k support fails, there is a possibility that the decline to $37k-$37.7k will be stopped.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Possible scenarios in future#Bitcoin #Daily #ElliottWave #Scenario #Tommy - These are some of many scenarios that I am personally considering from the Elliott Wave Theory perspective. Numerous technical factors that are observed frequently especially in recent financial market such as widening patterns, stop hunting price action, parallel channels, and master patterns have been taken into account. Let's take a look at each one. - Let’s start with A, my most bearish scenario. This is a wave counting where the whole bullish wave from $32.9K low formed in January, is regarded as a big dead-cat bounce, expecting another bearish wave cycle. I interpreted the sideway structure that came out after January as a green wave B within the 5-3-5 ABC correction. If we see another bullish trend breaking top of the black channel above, possible target prices for wave B are $53.6k~$54.8k and $57.2k~$58.4k. In a bigger picture, red wave C can be targeted at $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8K~$19.5K which can also be considered as possible resistances. This scenario becomes more likely if bottoms of the black and green channel fail supporting. - Scenario B is my bullish counting that assumes $32.9K low as the end of the corrective wave cycle and regarding the bullish wave after as an impulsive. It seems that support of the red upward trend line is currently being tested and if successfully supported, we cannot exclude the Leading Diagonal wave 1 scenario. If it fails supporting and cause more bearish momentum, I would say $37.8K~$39.5K is a significant zone which is a confluent zone of the black channel bottom and HVP(High volume peak) level. This scenario is to be ignored if Bitcoin makes a swing low, breaking $32.9K and forming LL(Lower Low). If somehow Bitcoin becomes very bullish making a higher high, the target prices for the impulsive wave can be deducted as $72.5k-$74.0k and $77.5k-$79.0k. - The following two scenarios have considered wave structure above $28K as 3-3-5 Flat Correction. Scenario C has taken widening or broadening patterns into account which are commonly observed these days. Considering 3-3-5 Expanded Flat correction, this scenario expects to break the $28.9K bottom, making a V-shaped price action at the stop-hunting level and the bottom of the disjoint channel. If the $53.6k~$54.8k resistance fails rejection, this wave counting becomes invalid. The green wave 5 or red wave C can be targeted at $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8k~$19.5k below. - Scenario D is similar to C, but has a shorter green wave 5, meaning Truncated wave 5 or C is expected. This very case interprets the wave structure as a running flat corrective and expects to not break the bottom of the black or green channel below. $37.8K~$39.5K would be a decent target range. If bottom of the upward channels fails supporting, $29.1k~$30.8k which is the bottom of the smaller widening pattern formed after $32.9k, can also be considered as a short-term support zone. - (Summary) The most imminent point to pay attention currently is to confirm whether the red bullish trend line can successfully support. The next support levels to keep our eyes on are around the bottom of the black and green channels. However, if this zone breaks, I would become very bearish expecting price to drop and reach $28.9k which is a very important LVP(Low Volume Peak) pivot level. If the market becomes worse making another huge drop, the area where the lower widening pattern and the stop-hunting level overlap around $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8k~$19.5k, would be one of the most attractive buy zones. If additional bullish rallies are observed, the resistances to consider in between are $53.6k~$54.8k and $57.2k~$58.4k. Lastly, in a much bigger picture, if Bitcoin successfully swings high making a new historical high, I would say $72.5k~$74.0k and $77.5k~$79.0k are areas to expect some rejections.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Checking $44k support once again!! Converging here?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Bitcoin continues to be in a convergence trend without finding a direction in a wide range. - Once again, Bitcoin is confirming the support of the ‘$44.2k-$44.5k' section, and it is trying to rebound while raising the low. If Bitcoin keeps the low as it is, it should have the possibility of triangular convergence. - If the ‘$44.2k-$44.5k' support is checked, a rebound can be expected to reach ‘$48.8k-$49.1k', where the inflection zone during the previous bearish trend and the upper part of the orange medium-term bullish trend channel overlap. Therefore, if it breaks out the resistance area, you can expect a rise to ‘$51.5k-$51.8k' or ‘$53.3k'. - If the ‘$44.2k-$44.5k' support fails, the bearish breakout of the sky blue highs trendline should be open for a deeper bearish trend. - During the bearish trend, there is an inflection zone of ‘$41.5k-$41.9k', but in the case of a rebound, if the ‘$44.2k-$44.5k' resistance is fails to breakout, the possibility of a further bearish trend is higher. - This should give the possibility of a bearish towards the lower end of the orange medium-term bullish channel and the ‘$37k-$37.7k', which provided strong support before the March rally.
by Tommy_Trader
2
[Candlestick Patterns] Just need to know these three!#Candlestick #CandlePattern #Tocademy #Tutorial Hello traders from all over the world, this is Tommy =) I was unexpectedly surprised by many of you who liked and supported my last post about the basic concept of TA(Technical Analysis). Today I prepared a brief lecture about the Candlestick Pattern, one of the most fundamental phenomenon and behaviors that traders must be well-informed. In fact, we should be very familiar with these textbook contents and interpret it in a glimpse on the technical chart unconsciously. Just like we don't pay direct attention about each breathes when breathing, like we don't care each and all of the alphabets when we speak, or like we don’t perceive location of each keyboards every moment as we type, this very technique should be performed automatically and quickly by observing dominant formations of candlestick bars. As a matter of fact, comprehending market trends and price actions only by referring to the candlesticks is yet too spurious. It should be used in such a way to weight on certain scenarios in a macroscopic view, rather than deriving precise and specific PRZ(Potential Reversal Zone)s and distinguish the accurate market trend. It’s never like ‘The price must go up because this pattern just appeared’. Furthermore, I strongly believe that the reliability of the candlestick pattern strategy is declining especially in recent financial market, where we encounter countless non-traditional and abnormal situations that were not very common in the past. Hence among the existing ‘Textbook’ candlestick pattern strategies that can easily be found on Google, there are particular patterns that are still very reliable on current market and there are ones that are not as reliable as it used to be. So here, I will organize everything very clearly for you guys. The technical chart is well known as sort of a map tracing the mob-psychology of all the stakeholders in the market. Investors’ sentiments such as FUD(Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) and FOMO(Fear of Missing Out) that often cause panic buy/sell are visualized as data. Those with a clear understanding of the fundamental nature of how candlesticks are being formed, don’t even need to memorize these patterns one by one. As I emphasized at my previous post, candlesticks should be interpreted as a whole structure, unlike the line chart expressed in one-dimensional. Candlesticks are newly formed in each time interval and we can choose the timeframe for the chart that we are about to analyze. For instance, each candlestick in a daily chart is formed every day while each candlestick in a 5minute chart is formed every 5 minutes. Higher the timeframe of the chart is, longer-term the scope within the chart is. It is important as a TA analyst to start from macro-perspective with higher timeframe first, then go deeper to lower timeframe and find short-term factors. There are four independent prices composing a candlestick: open, high, low and close price. Open price indicates the starting point while close price indicates the ending point of a candlestick. Just like the wording, high/low prices are formed at the highest/lowest price during the time period of candlestick being formed. A bullish candlestick is when the closing price is above the opening price (i.e., when the price rises), while a bearish candle is when the closing price is below the opening price (i.e., when the price is falling), and the two are expressed in different colors (green & red or red & blue). The thick part between the opening and closing price is called the ‘Body’, and the thin part is called the ‘Tail’ (Wick or Shadow). Typically, the length of the body implies the strength of an ongoing trend. We learned from the textbook that the candlesticks with a longer body means stronger trend and those with shorter tails mean clearer trend. Back in the days, there was time when we could detect if whales are involved and deduct impulsiveness of ongoing trend when distinctly long bodied candlesticks with relatively high trading volumes take places. I am afraid to tell you that it is better to erase that memory. First of all, it is too obvious and cliché to announce that the long candlesticks with high volumes mean strong market trend. This criterion itself is quite vague and not 100% reliable to identify future trends or find insightful signals. Moreover, in recent days (especially in Crypto), whales like to deceive retail traders with a strong faith of trading volumes and since the future markets are becoming bigger, giving too much weight on trading volume paired to each candlestick is not as effective as it was when textbook used to work very well. I am not saying textbook is wrong. It just needs slight updates since the market we are dealing with keeps changing over time. In TA world, closing price of a candlestick carries a great meaning and thus closing prices at higher timeframes should very well be monitored to become a successful trader. Sometimes whales even battle aggressively right before a major closing time often causing a weird ‘scam’ moves with a high volume. As shown below, we usually find the price and time when certain TA variables (such as top/bottom of trendline, channels, pivot levels, and other indicators) are broken, meaning if the price has penetrated those variables successfully, in order to find breakout entries, stoplosses, and target prices, etc. This whole concept of breaking above or below is quite vague, subjective, and relative idea. So, what we traders refer to as a reliable criterion is confirming whether the candle closed above and below the factors. For instance, let’s say that we are seeking and waiting for the breakout of the downward trendline. Well sometimes it’s not as easy as expected to precisely spot and determine whether the price has successfully pierced through the trendline. There are times when price breaks the trendline, but ends up coming back below leading close price of the candlestick to be formed below the trendline like the case 2 below. In this very case, it’s difficult to determine whether the breakout happened successfully or not. Nevertheless, like case 3, when both closing and high prices are formed above the trendline, we can clearly confirm and weight more on the breakout scenario, expecting more bullish rally. Okay let's get to the point. In recent financial trading market, it's enough to know just these three. 1. Engulfing 2. Doji 3. Long Tailed Candlestick As mentioned above, there’s nothing hard if you understand the essential concepts and principles of the above patterns and phenomena. The engulfing candlestick is a phenomenon in which the body of the previous candle is consumed by the body of the next candle, that is, a larger body than the previous one comes out. In other words, if a new bullish candle closes higher than the previous open price or if a new bearish candle closes lower than the previous open price, we say ‘the new candlestick engulfed the previous one’. If we look closely, this pattern implies the circumstance where the new candle completely overwhelms the trend of the previous candle and reverses it into a new trend despite closing the price from above or below. However, the appearance of an engulfing candle does not mean that the trend is unconditionally reversed. It is often the case that engulfing candles take place consecutively, with the second candle taking over the body of the first candle, the third’s taking over the second’s, the fourth’s taking over the third’s and so on. As the price fluctuates up and down, it creates a Widening or Broadening pattern also known as expanding sort of shapes, making it difficult for traders to figure out the current trend. In this circumstance, the entry prices, stop loss prices, target prices, or average prices of many participants in the market tend to be located relatively nearby. This price range or region is called a HVP(High Volume Profile or Peak) or an Orderblock and I will cover details about this concept later on another post. Anyway, there are numerous methods to derive Orderblock and one of them is to spot bodies of the consecutive engulfing candlesticks. The tail(wick) of a candlestick can be interpreted as a sign of the fierce battle between the bulls are bears. Longer tail signifies bigger collision between buying and selling forces. The longer the upper tail, the more the bulls trying to raise the price up but the bears rejecting them eventually sellers ending up being dominant and vice versa for the longer the lower tail. Generally, when the long upper/lower tails are formed at a relative higher/lower part of the wave structure or at a distinctive pullback as a PRZ this can be a possible signal of trend reversal. Due to my personal trading experience, it doesn't matter much in recent TA market whether the long-tailed candlestick is a bullish or bearish. In other words, regardless of the color of Hammer or Shooting star (which are both long-tailed candlestick pattern), it’s better to check if the next following candlesticks are being formed opposite direction of the tail. Personally, I don't think the Inverted Hammer and Hanging Man are not as necessary as it used to be in the old days. When the length of the candlestick’s body is relatively short meaning if the open and close prices are very close, forming a cross like shape, it’s called a Doji. Since Doji has a short body, the upper and lower tails tend to come out longer and thus can be considered as evidence of a tense confrontation between the bulls and bears that eventually ends up reaching a balance. Similar to the long-tailed candlestick, Doji is also known as a sign of a PRZ depending on the next appearing candlesticks. When Dojis are observed after swing high or low, it can be a possible indicator that the on-going trend is overheated and you might want to anticipate some pullbacks. However, it is too risky to directly assume that the top or bottom is near just because of Doji. Especially in the market these days, Dojis also appear frequently in sideways and sometimes confuses traders searching for a clear trend. As emphasized above, as with other technical techniques, theories, and indicators, always remember to weight more to the emergence of patterns in higher timeframes and longer-term perspectives. The higher timeframe people globally refer to, the more the reliability the TA will be. Just think about it for a second. Which timeframe do you think that people consider more significantly about the closing price, a 5 minutes chart or a daily chart? I would obviously say that the price signals from the daily cart is relatively more representative and reflect longer-term than those of the 5 minutes chart. Keep in mind is that you also need to understand market trends from a macro perspective before approaching towards short-term perspective. It is always recommended to recognize long-term trends or situations in advance from the candlestick of a higher timeframe, and then look at more detailed and microscopic elements step by step. All right. I will wrap up now. Thanks for reading my post. Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are a huge inspiration for me to write more posts!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
20
[Bitcoin] Successful rebound? Not sure yetCrack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Since the briefing on the 29th, it has been showing a sideways trend without breaking the resistance of the upper orange rising channel . - A preasure appeared after resistance at the top of the orange uptrend channel , but showed a lower tail with support from the sky blue high-trend line. However, the purple long-term downtrend Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382 is strongly resisted at $46,700, suggesting a possibility of another pressing to confirm the support of the sky blue high-trend line. - In the short term, we can expect a sideways trend between the purple Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382, ‘$46,700', and the sky blue high-trend line, '44xxx'. - In the mid-to-long term, as mentioned in the previous briefing, the role of the sky-blue high-trend trend line is expected to be important. - If the support of the sky blue highs trendline is successful, we can expect an uptrend to break out the resistance above the orange uptrend channel . - If the support of the blue high-trend trend line fails, you can expect support from the orange uptrend center line, but the inflection section of the sale created after the formation of the ‘$32,917' low and support near ’$41,432', where the purple long-term downtrend retracement level of 0.236 is located. appears to be important. - If even the support of ‘$41,432' fails, we can expect a decline near the bottom of the orange uptrend channel and near ‘$37,607', where the purple long-term downtrend retracement level of 0.13 is located.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Three possible future direction of Bitcoin!#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Bitcoin is accompanied by a strong uptrend, breaking through the sky blue resistance line, and reaching 48k. - However, Bitcoin is strongly resisted by the upper line of the orange rising channel near 48k, and it can be seen that RSI and RACD are also located at considerable highs. - If the resistance of the upper line of the orange rising channel is broken, we can expect an uptrend to the maximum of ‘$53,357'. However, there is a possibility that it will not break the resistance of ‘$51,513-$51,886', which provided strong resistance during the previous downtrend. - If Bitcoin turns into a downtrend without breaking the resistance of the upper line of the orange rising channel, we can expect a decline to confirm the support of the sky blue high resistance line. - If the retest support of the sky blue high-resistance line is successful, we can once again expect an uptrend to the upper line of the orange uptrend channel. - If the retest support of the sky blue high resistance line fails, we can expect a decline to the lower line of the orange uptrend channel. If the support of the lower line of the orange bullish channel fails, we can expect support from the lower line of the blue bullish channel.
by Tommy_Trader
[ETH] How far can ETH go if it break through?#Crack #Ethereum #Binance #4hour - Ethereum is emerging with a strong upward trend. - Although a strong uptrend is currently in progress, it has reached the long-term resistance of ‘$3,377.89'. - The ‘$3,377.89' resistance is an inflection line made during August-October 21, and since it is a line that showed strong resistance during a long downtrend, it is seen as an important line for this rise as well. - In addition to ‘$3,377.89', along with the resistance of ‘$3,424.66', where the 1st level of the Fibonacci expansion of the medium-term upward wave is located, the possibility of a downtrend inversion should be kept in mind before breaking through the ‘$3,378-$3,424' resistance. - If the ‘$3,378-$3,424' resistance is broken, we can expect an uptrend to ‘$3,833', where the red dashed line confirms the bullish channel centerline and the 0.618 level of downtrend retracement. - If the ‘$3,378-$3,424' resistance is not broken, we can expect a correction as the uptrend was strong. - If a bearish correction appears, we can expect support from ‘$3,183-$3,193', where the 0.382 level of downtrend retracement. If a bullish correction appears, we can expect support from the short-term upward wave Fibonacci extension level of 0.618, which is identified by the yellow dotted line, and ‘$2,995-$3,005’, where the 3005 long-term inflection line is located.
by Tommy_Trader
[Bitcoin] / New high update in 12 days! Can it rise more?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #4hour - In the last briefing, I mentioned the importance of support for $40,774, and a strong rebound has emerged after the successful support of $40,774. - With a strong uptrend, it broke through the $42,300 resistance and flattened the $42,594 high, but it failed to maintain the uptrend and appears to be under pressure again. - In the short term, the highs and lows continue to rise, and the update of the $42,594 highs can be seen as raising the highs and lows in the medium term. - However, there is still resistance at the white long-term convergence upper line. - The support of $40,774-$41,433 continues to be important when a pressure appears, and since it overlaps up to the orange long-term uptrend channel centerline, this confirmation of support seems to be important. - If the $40,774-$41,433 support is successful, we can expect an uptrend to confirm the resistance of the white long-term convergence upper line. - If the resistance of the white long-term convergence upper line is broken, we can expect an uptrend towards $46,700-$47,226 or the upper line of the orange long-term uptrend channel. - If the $40,774-$41,433 support fails, we can expect a decline to confirm support at the white long-term convergence lower line. - If the support of the white long-term convergence lower line fails, we can expect a decline to the light blue short-term uptrend line. - Please observe the movement in the areas where support/resistance overlaps marked with yellow circles.
by Tommy_Trader
1
Chart Analysis is not a gambling! Reason why TA is greatHello traders. This is Tommy. Today, I prepared the most basic and at the same time essential materials that every trader should know. Trading is literally the act of exchanging or trading something with a certain value. If we look at the history, we humans have always traded something within the social community from the Neolithic Age to develop into a better civilization or for individual survival when we have enough food or assets. When the surplus accumulation and self-sufficiency economy due to food production was formed, even before the concept of currency or money, buying and selling (trading) was always with us. But when we trade, it is not a reasonable thing to do if we lose money when you buy or sell something, right? We humans have always traded at a value or price that is commensurate with supply and demand, within this immutable fence. And we, who are full of greed, have been trading in such a way as to somehow benefit ourselves a little bit more. In a way, I think this is the basic idea of capitalism. Anyway, our ancestors naturally oriented trades for profit, sometimes seeing losses and sometimes profits through these transactions. And suddenly realized. “Ah, the quantity demanded, and the quantity supplied change over time. Because of this, all objects in this world, even abstract ones, change in value over time. Oh, I can make money if I use this well?” A culture of profit taking has naturally been formed thanks to those who possess the temperament of smart entrepreneurs. In this way, the economy and financial markets were eventually born, and several market participants came in for the sole purpose of generating profits, that is, for investment purposes. People who have properly understood the market principle of supply and demand have been trading with certain standards to make money with it. Some people can trade by the weather (buy when it's sunny, sell when it's raining), some by rolling the dice (buy when it's high, sell when it's low), and someone just by feeling. Of course, economists studied after realizing that trading on unreliable and absurd standards would eventually destroy them. And realized it. “Ah, let’s find the right standard to set the standard. From what I've seen so far, does it make money by trading based on the information about the product and the value of the product that changes every moment? Let’s dig into it properly!” And they created a great science. Analysis through information, Fundamental Analysis (FA), analysis through charts, that is, past transaction data, and Technical Analysis (TA: Technical Analysis). FA is an analysis method that determines whether a product's current intrinsic value is overvalued or undervalued. For example, when we want to invest in a company, that is, if we want to buy shares or stocks in that company, we must first estimate the company's growth potential and potential, right? To do this, you must make a final investment decision by referring to the company's financial indicators, good news/bad news, past asset/revenue growth rates, etc. On the other hand, TA is a method of making investment decisions by referring to various theories and indicators with meaning in charts that intuitively show past price movements and momentum. Of course, it would be the best to do both FA and TA, but in these days, retail traders and individual investors, like us, have time/technical limitations to receive information, analyze it, and immediately reflect it in investment. It is not enough that there are various kinds of false information to deceive the traders, and even if it is reliable information, it is highly likely to start at a loss even if it is received a little later than others. It is useful to spot large market trends in the long run, but when this information reaches the public, it is likely that it has already been priced in by institutions (Big Parties). Without huge information power or a computer that can perform FA quickly and accurately, it is difficult to survive in this market with only FA. There is a risk that is too great to carry out an investment with only one FA standard. Therefore, to make a successful investment decision, you need to find a more precise trading position through TA, and in the end, if you are a skilled investor, you must learn TA. The dictionary meaning of TA is known as a technique for predicting future market trends by examining a tool called a chart that digitizes the overall price volatility and momentum of a product. I'm someone who doesn't fully agree with this meaning. The term “prediction” itself is a very dangerous word. Even the most talented investors in the world cannot predict future prices unless they are gods. Technical analysis is closer to the realm of response than prediction. For this reason, our traders look at the charts and always have various possible scenarios in mind and come up with appropriate countermeasures accordingly. With less than 10 years of trading experience, if I dared to define the meaning of the term technical analysis, I would like to say: Personally, all TAs are based on historical data, and through various theories (or methodologies) and technical indicators, first, probabilistically identify the market trend, that is, whether the price is an upward trend or a downward trend, and then determine the price action, that is, support resistance. I think it is an analysis technique that derives the sections with high probability. Some of you may have questions like this. “No, how do you find a trend and price action interval by looking at only historical data?” This is the reason I fell in love with market analysis. This study called technical analysis is a technique that statistically patterned and quantified the psychology of investors (greed, doubt, fear, etc.) with a lot of data from the past. Surprisingly, external variables that can affect the market, such as good news/bad news, are also reflected in this probabilistically. There have been many times when I have felt the greatness of technical analysis, and there were many times when good news/bad news came out amazingly at just the right timing in situations where there was no choice but to rise or fall referring to the chart. Of course, there are situations where Big Parties leak news to the media to take advantage of popular psychology, but even the pattern, timing, or frequency of such good news and bad news is reflected in the study of technical analysis. Anyway, once you have probabilistically derived the market trend and price action section through TA, you need to design a trading strategy according to the situation. There are words that I keep emphasizing like nagging. Just looking at the charts doesn't mean you're good at trading. This trading strategy includes how to structure the portfolio, how to design the profit/loss ratio/range, how much seed to enter, high/low multiplier, and how to set up profit/loss response strategies. In addition, a well-designed principled strategy is essential to prevent non-thinking trading. This principled strategy is easy to design, but incredibly difficult to follow and implement. No matter how well technical analysis and trading strategies are formulated, these principles are of no use if they are not well designed or adhered to. There are individual differences, but honestly, I don't think there is an answer to the principle strategy other than learning or mastering it through long-term practice or entrusting your own technical analysis/trading strategy to a machine/computer/algorithm. The fewer human emotions are involved, the higher the success rate, but how can you trade without emotions when your money is at stake? It's hard. One tip is to start trading with a small amount that you don't mind losing if you want to learn principle trading well. It doesn't matter if you lose it, so you'll be less empathetic that much, and you'll be able to increase a seed little by little. We must become traders who always think of risks (losses) before rewards (returns). Please keep this word in mind. For example, in a trading setup that costs 10 million dollars if you make a profit and 10 million dollars if you lose, rather than a mindset like “Oh, I want to win 10 million dollars quickly~”, “I may lose 10 million dollars. You must trade with the mindset of “Let’s be prepared.” This will naturally match the seed to your bowl. Then I'll wrap up for today. Until now, this was Tommy of the Tommy Trading Team. Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are a big help to me. Thank you.
Editors' picks
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
77
22.03.21 / Checking important short-term support level#crack #bitcoin #binance #4 hour - After the last briefing, an attempt was made to break through the orange long-term uptrend channel center line, which appears to be an important resistance line, but it failed to support and the pressure appeared again. - As you can see from the light blue trend line, the possibility of further convergence should be kept in mind as the trend is changing without raising the high in the mid-sized wave. - Resistance appeared at $42,296, which is the current yellowish green mid-term uptrend Fibonacci extension level of 0.618, and you can see that it is trying to support $40,774, which is the 0.5 level of the same Fibonacci extension. - If support at $40,774 succeeds, we can expect a move to renew the $42,594 / $45,400 / $45,821 highs. - If the support of $40,774 fails, a decline towards the white long-term convergence line or the light blue medium-term convergence line should also be considered.
by Tommy_Trader
22.03.17 / Bitcoin faces significant resistance!! Expected resis#crack #bitcoin #binance #4 hour - After the upward break of the white short-term downtrend line, the retest of the trend line was completed, but the orange long-term uptrend channel's center line and the long-term and short-term Fibonacci retracement level resistance overlapped the $41,386-$41,433 resistance. - In the short term, the light blue arrow may open up the possibility of a convergence expansion that raises lows and lowers highs. - If the $41,386-$41,433 resistance is not broken, we can expect a decline to retest the support of the white short-term downtrend line. If the retest support of the $39,770-$38,595 section, which has been flat in the medium term, fails, the possibility of a decline to $34,322 or the larger support section of 24k-23.5k opens up. - If the $41,386-$41,433 resistance is broken, we can expect an upside to $43,600-$44,000, where the volume profile is formed in the previous move and the yellow medium-term uptrend Fibonacci extension level of 0.618 is located. - After that, if the support of $41,386-$41,433, where the centerline of the orange long-term uptrend channel is located, is maintained, we can expect an uptrend towards the $46,700-$47,226 resistance section in the mid- to long-term.
by Tommy_Trader
22.03.14 / Now all that's left is the long-term trend line!!#crack #bitcoin #binance #4 hour - Since the last briefing, a sideways trend has been taking place between $38,595 and $39,770, and after that, the short-term uptrend line and support at $38,595 failed, showing a sell-off. - The dark gray long-term Fibonacci level of 0.13 level, $37,607, appears to be receiving short-term support, but it is unclear to be sure of a rebound. - In the event of a rebound from the current spot, it seems safe to follow and buy after re-entering above the minimum white short-term uptrend line, and the possibility of retest resistance should be kept in mind. - If the current rebound fails or the retest resistance of the white short-term uptrend line appears strong, support at $34,936-$35,312, which is located at the bottom of the medium-term uptrend channel, seems important. If the downward whipsaw appears strongly, it is important to find support around $34,322, where the lower part of the large upward channel is located. - As mentioned above, if the 34k-35k support fails, the mid/long-term downtrend should be kept in mind due to the failure of the lower end of the medium/long-term uptrend channel.
by Tommy_Trader
2
22.03.11 / Failure to support critical sections#crack #bitcoin #binance #4 hour - The basic support/resistance section is the same as in the previous briefing. - The support of $40,774-$41,386, mentioned as an important support section in the previous briefing, failed, and a strong selling trend appeared. - After two strong negative peaks, an attempt was made to rebound, but it failed to rebound while leaving a long upper tail. - It is currently moving between the $39,770 resistance and the $38,595 support, so the short-term direction is still uncertain. - If the rebound continues, we can expect an uptrend to $40,774-$41,386, and if resistance is strong at this time, we can expect a decline to 35k as mentioned in the previous briefing. - If BTC breaks through the $40,774-$41,386 resistance, BTC can be expected that BTC will raise the high by making a rebound with a higher low, but in the big picture, it is necessary to keep in mind the appearance of convergence, in which the highs are continuously lowered and the lows are continuously rising, If BTC turns into a downtrend without breaking through the highs, it is safe to watch the convergence deviance. - If the rebound fails and the $38,595 support fails, we can expect a sell-off to confirm support in the 34k-35k support range, and a large downtrend should also be taken into account if the support at the lower end of the orange medium-term uptrend channel fails.
by Tommy_Trader
22.03.10 / Let's take a look at the important support areas#crack #bitcoin #binance #4 hour - A strong rebound emerged while raising the low, breaking through the center line of the orange medium-term uptrend channel. - Currently, BTC is resisting from the lower part of VP in February, showing the possibility of short-term pressurization. - If the pressurization appears, the support of the $41,386-$40,774 section, where the orange mid-term uptrend channel center line is located, seems to be important. - A break of the $43,600-$44,000 resistance seems important if the support of the $40,774-$41,386 section is successful and further uptrend proceeds. - If BTC succeeds in breaking the $43,600-$44,000 resistance, we can expect an uptrend to the maximum of $46,700-$47,226. - If BTC breaks through the $467,00-$47,226 resistance, we can expect a mid- to long-term uptrend by breaking the long-term downtrend channel upwards. - If the $40,774-$41,386 support fails, a downtrend is expected to lower the $37,155 low. - If the downtrend continues without a sharp fall, it is necessary to keep in mind the possibility of a downtrend to the $34,936-$35,312 section, where the lower orange medium-term bullish channel and the gray major bearish channel center line overlap. - If the $34,936-$35,312 support fails, it is highly likely that the $34,322.28 / $32,917.17 lows will be renewed, and the possibility of a mid- to long-term downtrend should be taken into account due to the downward breakout of the medium-term bullish channel and the breakout of the center line of the long-term bearish channel.
by Tommy_Trader
22.03.07/Bitcoin 4-hour/If it doesn't rebound, is it going down?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #4hour - The downtrend is strong enough that the rebound at the end of February is insignificant. - Currently, BTC is confirming the support of the Volume Profile section that was created during the uptrend at the end of February. - In the big picture, it rebounded by raising the low without renewing the low of $32,917, but in the last uptrend, it lowered the high without renewing the high of $45,821, and a strong downtrend appeared.We can expect a downtrend to renew the $34,322.28 low, or a large convergence. - If the yellow medium-term downtrend Fibonacci extension at 0.618 level is successfully rebounds, check whether the $40,774-$41,432 resistance is broken. - The $40,774-$41,432 resistance section is expected to be strong with the long-term Fibonacci level, the mid-term Fibonacci level, and the resistance section where the mid-term uptrend channel centerline is located. - However, if the resistance is breaks strongly, we can expect an uptrend to renew the high of $45,400. If the high of $45,400 is renewed, we can expect an uptrend to $47,226, which is located at the top of the blue medium-term uptrend channel. - If BTC renews the low of $34,322.28, the important section to look at is around $33,901. This section is a section where the bottom of the dark gray ultra-long-term parallel channel overlaps, and it is necessary to keep in mind the possibility of a very strong downtrend if a downward departure of the channel occurs. - If a rebound occurs after falling to the $33,901 section, it seems necessary to check the retest resistance of the blue medium-term uptrend channel. If the retest resistance is not broken, the possibility of a downtrend should be kept open.
by Tommy_Trader
EURGBP | Some entry points with nice RRs#EURGBP #4HR #FXCM - FX likes parallel channels very much these days. I am waiting EUR/GBP to break the top of blue falling wedge which I find it very steep. - The area that caused a sharp bounce today is the confluence zone where yellow channel and bottom of the wedge overlap. - If we see another swing low, I am expecting to enter long position at the support at 0.83390~0.83530. - This zone is where bottom of white channel, green trendline, bottom of the wedge, and 1.13 expansion level all exist and is only valid until 23:00 January 5th of 2022 in Korean time (UTC+9). - Long trading setups can be designed as below: Long EP: 0.83530 SL: 0.83310 (-220Pips) TP1: 0.83980 (+450Pips) RR: 2.05 TP2: 0.84490 (+960Pips) RR: 4.36
Long
by Tommy_Trader
Does 200k sound absurd? All of the possible scenarios for BTC#BTCUSD #Bitstamp #Weekly #Log #EW - Hello traders from all over the world! It’s been a while since we’ve looked deep into the possible scenarios of Bitcoin in long-term EW perspective. The uploaded images are BTC weekly log scaled chart. Personally, I believe that spotting market trend and price actions utilizing Elliott wave theory is not that significant. So please just refer this post to roughly capture some possible trend flows and major PRZs (Potential Reversal Zone). - All of the cases I have prepared today have an assumption that the upward wave starting from the low at $3000 is an impulsive wave cycle(Blue wave 5). Or else there would be too many for me to cover in an upload. Scenarios with different assumptions are to be covered in the future. - Let’s start with scenario A first, my most bearish case. This wave counts regard that the current upward wave(30k~70k) is green sub-wave 5 of the blue wave 5. Even though I drew the whole impulsive black wave cycle in A-1, it is still possible that green wave 5 is still in progress as shown in A-2. This means that we might expect one more upward wave and the rough target price for wave 5 is around 95K~120K. - Scenario B implies that the on-going wave(30k~70k) is sub-wave B of the green wave 4. This case has reflected that this very wave structure is closer to 5-3-5-3-5 rather than 5-3-5 zigzags and thus expanded flat wave B was considered. It is more bullish than the first scenario in a longer term, but bearish in a shorter term. If Bitcoin makes a high higher than 69K, this wave count is no more valid and the scenario A-2 becomes more likely. The green wave 4 is targeted at 17k~23k. - Following case which interpreted that the green wave 3 has not ended, is scenario C. This count is somewhat similar to scenario A that the upward wave(30k~70k) has been considered as an impulsive, but this case regarded with lower degree(red). C-1 shows that the target price for green wave 4 is similar to that of scenario B when 69K is considered as the end of green wave 3. On the other hand, similar to A-2, C-2 also implied that black sub-wave 5 of green wave 3 has not ended yet and 95k~120k would be a rough target. After that if we see a corrective wave, possibly green wave 4, the green wave 5 can be targeted at 180k~220k. More precise targets are to be deducted later when more sub wave structures are formed. - Last but not least, scenario D is assuming that the ongoing wave is the black sub-wave 4 of the green wave 3. This case also applied the expanded flat just like scenario B, but lower wave degree has been counted. If Bitcoin succeeds on breaking the high at 69k, this case becomes invalid and scenario C will gain some weight. Similar target prices from the previous cases are regarded for black wave 4 and 5 and the green wave 4 and 5 will be specified after.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tommy_Trader
2
Always perceive your risk first, before determining the reward#EURGBP #Daily #Europound #FOREX #Tommy - The market has been quite tough for many commodities recently due to the effects of the global economy. - The FX market is not exceptional and it has never been this brutal. Nevertheless, who should we blame as a trader? It’s not the whales or other stakeholders in the market. It should be ourselves since trading is a series of endless battles against our own ego. - Here is Euro/British Pound daily which I trade very often. I found a confluent support zone at 0.83400~0.83900 which might be a good entry for a decent risk reward ratio. - Below is a long trading setup where stoploss and target prices are written in percentage instead of pips (or ticks). Make sure to use proper leverages or pips and also check if the position size can be covered by your seed money. Long (Valid until Nov 15th) EP: 0.83900 SL: 0.83250 (-0.77%) TP1: 0.84920 (+1.22%) TP2: 0.85960 (+2.46%)
by Tommy_Trader
2