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Tommytradingtv

[Viking Pattern] Whales' Favorite Trap#Viking #Whipsaw #bulltrap #beartrap Recent financial market seems to be distinctively perplexing and bizarre, often leaving us traders in a state of confusion. Ultimately, our job as traders is to structure market fluctuations, which occur with certain probabilities, into trends and Price Actions based on time and price. The so-called scam moves and abnormal trends that have been frequently observed recently also tend to have patterns and can be somewhat formalized. Today, I would like to introduce a pattern that I have deducted and modeled based on insights of recent data. Those of you who have been trading a lot recently will probably be quite familiar. Interpreted from the perspective of Wyckoff Theory and the Master Pattern, this model ultimately intends to derive Price Action by distinguishing Accumulation and Distribution Phases in terms of horizontal Volume Profile. To systematize this pattern, various technical elements such as LVP (Low Volume Peak), HVP (High Volume Peak), Fibonacci Extension & Projection, Time Fibonacci Extension, trend lines, and parallel channels were utilized. Let me briefly explain features of the periodic phases that compose this model. 1. First and foremost, a significant volume structure forms in the horizontal level as various patterns including triangles (Ascending, Descending, Symmetric triangles, and Wedge, etc.), parallel channels, and diamonds, etc. It would consist of upper and lower bounds derived as either horizontal line (LVP) or sloped line (Trend line). Make sure to clearly mark these lines to later spot the meaningful breakout. 2. A strong breakout through upper or lower LVP (horizontal line) will take place, leaving the volume structure as consolidation zone or sideway channel above or below. Now the market has entered a distribution phase where the direction of a market trend clearly shows. We can target this level with Fibonacci Projection and Extension tools, but I find it quite risky entering against the trend, which would be a counter-trend strategy. In this study, the extension and projection levels utilized are 1, 1.13, 1.272, 1.414, and 1.618. 3. The impulsive momentum, whether bullish or bearish, eventually loses strength at some point forming a significant high or low. After, a new volume structure is generated again at a different level above or below the first structure. If this new structure shapes as relatively rounded or forms potential trend-reversal pattern, such as Cup with Handle, Adam and Eve, or Head and Shoulders, the probability of Viking pattern increases. Typically, the range of the second volume structure tends to be shorter than the first structure both vertically(pricewise) and horizontally(timewise). 4. Another breakout of the second consolidation, with the direction towards the first volume structure appears. According to the textbook, the confluence area where the LVP (which has been SR Flipped) and the trendline of the first volume structure overlap, is most likely to show retest support or rejection. However, if the price breaks through this very spot, which is defined as a POR (Point of Recognition) in this theory, a further impulsive trend is highly likely to follow. The essential part of this model is to spot potential PORs and apply trading setups using this very price momentum. 5. Fibonacci time zone extension tool were applied based on the periodic range of the first volume structure. Most of the time, the horizontal range of the first structure is longer than the length starting from the first breakout to the POR (Second breakout). In other words, if the second volume structure extends the previous one, the probability of occurrence decreases. The periodic extension levels used for targeting POR in this model are 1.13, 1.272, 1.414, 1.618, and 1.818. Here are some examples from various commodities and timeframes. - Bitcoin - Tesla - Microsoft - DXY (US Dollar Index) - ECOPRO 4hr Further studies and reviews of this model are to be updated later. Your subscription, comments and likes are huge motivation for me. Thank you.
Education
by Tommy_Trader
1
[EW] All of the possible Scenarios for Bitcoin!#BTCUSDT #Daily #ElliottWave #Tommy - Hello dear traders from all over the world! It’s Tommy. It’s been quite a while since I uploaded any contents on EN server. Due to countless issues in Crypto industry as well as the macroeconomic status concerning us about inflation and recession at the same time, BTC recently broke previous low around 17k making a new significant low around 15.4k. Now is the time for us to update our TA perspectives on BTC by deriving new supports, resistances, top, bottom and target prices. Let us look at some possible future scenarios in terms of Elliott Wave Theory. - My first scenario indicates that the high(65k) born on April 2021 is the end of an impulsive cycle, corrective waves right after being the expanded flat. This then implies that the historical high at 69k is the end of flat wave B which exceeds previous wave 5 within an impulsive wave. We know that the flat corrective structure follows 3-3-5 zigzag rather than 5-3-5. Accordingly, the whole bearish wave structure was to be considered as red wave C composed of 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. - Scenario A1 says that the downward impulsive green wave 5 within red wave C is ongoing right now. In this case, the current structure is most likely the downward impulsive black wave 3 or upward corrective black wave 4. Ending diagonal green wave 5 is also to be on the list, especially if either the black upward wave 4 retraces wave 3 deeper than expected or black downward wave 3 has already ended around 15k. Some of the considerable supports and resistances in this scenario are 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k, and 17.7k~18.5k. This scenario becomes invalid if BTC breaks above 21.5k. - Black wave B or C of upward corrective green wave 4 of red wave C is where we are right now according to scenario A2. This case expects BTC to break the downward channel above followed by decent bullish trend and then another strong rejection making a notable swing low after. Black wave 2 has also been regarded as some kind of flat structure. This very wave counting is off the list if BTC breaks above 33k, the end of green wave 1 after escaping the black parallel channel. If I were to be a bit more bullish, I can target the end of green wave 4 at 22.9k~23.7k and 27.4k~28.2k based on some technical components such as widening pattern(disjoint channel), 0.382 retracement level of downward cycle, and the horizontal volume profile, etc. - Rather than expanded flat described as above, regular correction with 5-3-5 zigzag was chosen on scenario B. I believe this very wave counting is so far the most popular one among the Elliott Wave traders globally. This case refers that the end of impulsive cycle has been completed at the historical high at 69k which then would be the end of impulsive red wave 5. Therefore 5-3-5 zigzag was implied on this whole falling wave structure starting from 69k. Well, then we are currently on green wave 4 or 5 within red wave C. - Similar to A1, B1 also regarded 25k high formed on August 2022 as the end of upward correction considering the falling wave structure right after as impulsive green wave 5. The chart below described the latest bearish waves as the black wave 3 within green wave 5 whether the 18k low is end of black wave 1 or running flat black wave B. The possibility of ending diagonal green wave 5 as well as the target prices (supports and resistances) are pretty much the same as A1’s. Retracing more than 21.5k that are thought to be the beginning of black wave 3, contradicts this scenario’s reliability. - B2 is also quite the same as A2 but the degrees of waves are different. This scenario implies flat correction as well and black wave C can be targeted at 22.9k~23.7k (Running flat) and 27.4k~28.2k (Expanded flat). Frankly, considering the proportion, this counting might be a little off the track when second target is reached. - From here, double three XWY corrective structure has been adapted on the falling wave that starts at the historical high. The dead cat bounce looking alike wave from 33k to 48k is then regarded as a wave failure, X. After the red wave X, the whole parts of the falling wave then fit into ABC 5-3-5, not the 12345 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. I could say this scenario is far most the bullish comparing to A and B. - Starting from C1, this case considers the horizontal volumes formed around 30k as green wave B dividing this very wave into ABC 5-3-5 zigzag. Weighting more on the flow that downward green wave C is starting from 25k high and splitting inner wave as 5-3-5-3-5, this scenario expects that the bears are almost finished and even though BTC shows another swing low in the future, it’s not going to be that bad. The worst specific case within this scenario would be making a final bottom at 13.4k~14.1k before bullish phase takes in place. - C2 is just a tiny bit less bullish than C1, where downward ending diagonal green wave C with a huge black wave 1 is considered. It surely is too early to expect ending diagonal green wave 5 currently, but monitoring major highs and lows to keep track on the new significant trendlines that are to be appeared seems integral. The worst possible case would be BTC reaching the 1:1 projection level of green wave A and B, which is around 10.8k~11.8k. - Last but not least, triple double three WXYXZ correction counting has been conducted in this scenario since those of some impatient traders are starting to address another wave failure X. This wave counting describes another wave X after WXY thus regarding another ABC 5-3-5 zigzag starting from 25k high. - According to D1, 22.8k high is a starting point of a downward impulsive green wave C interpreted as 5-3-5-3-5. Honestly, assuming the downward black impulsive wave cycle started much later is not my number one scenario. Anyhow, the target price ranges of red wave Z are around 13.4k~14.1k and 10.8k~11.8k. - Also considering WYXYZ correction, D2 implies that the green wave b within red wave C is taking place right now. Similarly, green wave B then can be regarded as either expanded or running flat which then can target 17.7k~18.5k and 22.9k~23.7k. Just like A2 and B2, this scenario also expects bulls to come in shorter term before another huge drop in longer term. (Summary) Supports: 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k. 7.4k~8.4k Resistances: 17.7k~18.5k, 22.9k~23.7k, 27.4k~28.2k Tops(Prices that bulls should break above): 22.8k, 25k , 29k
by Tommy_Trader
2
[Candlestick Patterns] Just need to know these three!#Candlestick #CandlePattern #Tocademy #Tutorial Hello traders from all over the world, this is HAMZA_ZDH=) I was unexpectedly surprised by many of you who liked and supported my last post about the basic concept of TA( Technical Analysis ). Today I prepared a brief lecture about the Candlestick Pattern, one of the most fundamental phenomenon and behaviors that traders must be well-informed. In fact, we should be very familiar with these textbook contents and interpret it in a glimpse on the technical chart unconsciously. Just like we don't pay direct attention about each breathes when breathing, like we don't care each and all of the alphabets when we speak, or like we don’t perceive location of each keyboards every moment as we type, this very technique should be performed automatically and quickly by observing dominant formations of candlestick bars. As a matter of fact, comprehending market trends and price actions only by referring to the candlesticks is yet too spurious. It should be used in such a way to weight on certain scenarios in a macroscopic view, rather than deriving precise and specific PRZ(Potential Reversal Zone)s and distinguish the accurate market trend. It’s never like ‘The price must go up because this pattern just appeared’. Furthermore, I strongly believe that the reliability of the candlestick pattern strategy is declining especially in recent financial market, where we encounter countless non-traditional and abnormal situations that were not very common in the past. Hence among the existing ‘Textbook’ candlestick pattern strategies that can easily be found on Google , there are particular patterns that are still very reliable on current market and there are ones that are not as reliable as it used to be. So here, I will organize everything very clearly for you guys.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Mr_HaMza_
[Bitcoin] If $21,654 support fails, consider bearish #Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #1D BTC finally broke out the $21,654 resistance, which is the 0.5 level of the Fibonacci trend extension, which has been a solid resistance since the formation of the low on June 18. With a strong bull trend, even the purple convergence top has been broken, and it is currently confirming support at $21,654. If the $21,654 support is successful, we can expect a further short-term rebound, but since there is resistance at the top of the pink bull trend channel, and furthermore, as there is resistance in the orange long-term trend line, it is difficult to view the bull trend that appeared the previous day as a bullish reversal of the long-term trend. There is also resistance at $22,580-$23,360, which was mentioned in the last briefing, so it is safe to watch whether the bull trend that emerged the previous day continues for the next 2-3 days. If the orange long-term trend line breaks out, I think it is worth taking an aggressive buy response. Until then, we recommend that you respond as conservatively as possible. If the bear trend continues further under the assumption that today's high is the high of the bear flag pattern, the expected support areas are $15,573-$15,508, $12,107-$10,909, and the overshooting level is confirmed at $8,184.72. - Summary Resistance section $22,580-$23,360 Important $24,190 Overshooting Level Support section $19,828-$19,118 Important $15,573-$15,508 $12,107-$10,909 Important $8,184.72 Overshooting Level
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] 19K support is solid?? It's still too early to assume#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #1D The support in the $19,828-$19,118 section, which was mentioned as very important in the previous briefing, succeeded, and it held the previous candlestick along with a buying trend, showing the possibility of a rebound. However, it can still be viewed as an extension of triangular convergence or an extension of a bull trend, and contains the possibility of continuing the bear trend. Since the short-term high has not yet been renewed, the expected support section is the same when the bear trend continues, but the expected resistance section has changed. As in the previous briefing, you can draw two rising channels. In the first case, a large bullish channel can be drawn, and in this case, the resistance near $22,175, where the center line of the bullish channel and the top of the convergence overlap which plays an important role. However, if the overshooting appears in the $23,240-$23,880 section and then the $22,175 section is supported, we can expect a short-term rise to the upper end of the channel. s3.tradingview.com In the second case, a small bull trend channel can be drawn. In this case, the resistance in the $22,580-$23,360 section, where the bull trend and the bull trend channel overlapped on June 13th, which plays an important role, The possibility of overshooting is shown until $24,190, where the long-term trend line and short-term Fibonacci level are located. Even in this case, if support is provided after breaking out the $22,580-$23,360 range, we can expect a short-term bull trend to the mid- to long-term Fibonacci level of $25,890. - Summary Support Section $19,828-$19,118 Important $15,508-$15,139 $12,107-$10,909 Important $7,750 overshooting level Resistance section Case 1 $22,175 Important $23,240-$23,880 Overshooting Level Resistance section Case 2 $22,580-$23,360 Important $24,190 Overshooting Level
by Tommy_Trader
2
[Bitcoin] Urgent!! 19K support is important!! #Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #1D Since the last briefing, the buying trend has not been continued, and it is showing a trend change by making Doge Candles and then falling. At this point, the blue medium-term bearish wave does not appear to have broken through the resistance of the 0.5 level Fibonacci trend extension, and it looks like Bitcoin will soon reach a critical support level. The important support interval appears to be around $19,828-$19,118, and this interval is located at the 0.786 level of the Fibonacci trend extension of the blue long-term bear trend wave, the 0.618 level of the Fibonacci trend extension of the blue medium-term bearish wave, and the bottom of the purple triplet convergence newly extended by the previous resistance. If it fails, once again, you need to prepare for further declines by the bear trend extension pattern. If the $19K support fails, we can expect support at $15,508-$15,139, where the blue medium term Fibonacci trend extension level of 0.786 and the purple short term Fibonacci trend extension level of 0.5 level overlap. However, one should keep in mind the turquoise long-term Fibonacci trend extension level 1 and the decline to the $12,107-$10,909 section, where the sub-trend extension levels are located. Additionally, if overshooting occurs below the $10,909 section, there is a possibility of a decline to $7,750, the 1st level of the purple short-term Fibonacci trend extension. Conversely, if the $19K support is successful, you can see several cases of successful retest support of yellow short-term convergence, successful bottom support of purple short-term convergence, and successful support of pink parallel channel bottom. If the $19K support is successful, we can expect a strong rebound in the near term. At this time, the expected resistance section is the section commonly mentioned in the last briefing. There are $24,189, which is an important resistance as long-term trend line resistance, and $25,890, a section that can be resisted when overshooting occurs. - summary $19,828-$19,118 support is very important Support section $15,508-$15,139 = Short-term support level $12,107-$10,909 = Critical long-term support level $7,750 = overshooting level Resistance section $24,189 = Critical long-term resistance level $258,90 = overshooting level
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Convergence upward breakthrough!! Resistance LVL?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #1D After the progress of the two large trend continuation patterns, convergence appeared again, but the bullish breakout with a strong bull candle. In the big picture, resistance can be expected when the orange long-term support line has moved bearish, and when it rises again, resistance is expected. We can expect resistance around $24,189.88, where the orange trend line and the light blue Fibonacci trend extension level of 0.382 overlaps, and we can expect resistance at $25,890 in case of overshooting. If we look at the chart a little closer, there is potential for resistance on the orange long-term trend line, so we will respond with the possibility of a bullish channel in mind, despite the upward breakout of the convergence. If you look at the first picture, it is a bullish channel with a narrow fluctuation range drawn as a wave created after the bottom is perfectly formed. In this case, there is a resistance section at $22,856-$22,984 below the orange long-term trend line. We can expect a bullish trend towards $15,507 or $11,497-$10,909. If you look at the second picture, we see the possibility of a bullish channel with a large fluctuation based on the high made during the 13day decline. In this case, after breaking through the orange long-term resistance line, resistance remains open to the $25,890 level mentioned above. If $25,890 resistance is found, it is necessary to check whether the orange long-term trend line is supported or not, and if the support is successful, the possibility of continuing the bull trend should be left open. We can expect a drop to $10,909. - summary From a long-term perspective, the important intervals are $25,890.65 and $24,189.88. From a short-term perspective, the important intervals are $22,856-$22,984, $25,890.65 When resistance occurs at $22,856-$22,984, sell response after checking whether the bullish channel has broken After resistance at $25,890, if support succeeds at the orange long-term trend line (near $24,189.88), buy response; if support fails, respond sells.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Worst 3K? Expected support identified by bear trend #Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #1D We explored all possible support zones using bearish continuation patterns and their Fibonacci extensions. Please take it lightly, as it is only analyzed as a Fibonacci trend extension of bear trend patterns without any other technical analysis. Sections containing the Fibonacci trend extension level of the large turquoise bear trend are marked in red, and sections not included are marked in orange. Continued bear trend patterns are emerging, and as the bear trend is still in progress and triangular convergence is underway, I think we need to prepare for an additional bear trend. In the case of a rebound without further decline, it seems safe to buy after the $19,828 upward stabilization and conservative $21,654 upward stabilization.
by Tommy_Trader
[EURGBP] Mid-term trading strategies#Forex #EURGBP #Daily #Midterm - Here’s EURGBP 1D chart. A lot of FX pairs have shown some high difficulty with frequent moves that are quite unpredictable. - As can be observed from the chart, there are a lot of noises, stop huntings, bull/bear traps, whipsaws, and long candle tails. - Consequently, such strategies with wider risk/reward ranges on higher timeframes are necessary in this type of market. - EURGBP showed a bear trap after breaking bottom of the green channel, re-entering into the channel again. - At the same time, it broke the black channel above and is currently testing resistance of the blue trendline and thus I will be bullish for a while right after it successfully breaks the blue trendline. - The resistances I am considering are 0.885~0.888 and 0.900~0.903 and trading setups can be designed as shown in the chart. - In shorter term, I am considering 0.848~0.851 significantly as a short-term bottom which is bottom of the green channel. If this area fails supporting, I would be bearish for a while. - A decent area to enter long is around the retest area of the black channel currently located at 0.836~0.839 and such trading setups can be implemented.
by Tommy_Trader
[Apple] Can you break the top of the wedge?#AAPL #NASDAQ #1D - Here’s Apple daily chart. Compared to other stocks within NASDAQ, the correction of Apple is not that much fearful, YET. - After breaking bottom of the black channel and blue trendline, it dropped about 14% more and at the same time formed a green falling wedge. - I would definitely be bullish in short-term if Apple breaks top of the wedge and for those looking for breakout entry, keep an eye on this falling wedge. - If it successfully breaks above, a well-designed trading setup can be secured targeting my first resistance area around $147~$149 which is the confluence zone of 0.382 retracement level and POC of previous HVP. - Another potential resistance that I am considering is at the retest area of the blue trendline located around $155~$157. - If the market becomes more bearish, in other word if Apple gets rejected by the top of the wedge once more and makes a LL, I am expecting decent price actions at $123~$125 and $117~$119. - These supports have been deducted by various technical elements drawn in the chart such as wedge bottom, trendlines, Log-trendline, previous VP areas(Orderblocks), Fibonacci projection levels, and retracement levels, etc.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Tommy_Trader
[S&P500, NASDAQ, and BTC] Can't you all three be bullish please?Hello everyone. Today we’ve prepared a comparative technical analysis for S&P500, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin in macroscopic perspective by observing daily and weekly charts. Line charts for future commodities from CME were used which are ES1, NQ1!, and BTC1!. Also, in order to observe possible trend reversal signal, RSI indicator with default length of 14 was referred with. Let’s start with daily charts. S&P500 made a significant high at January 3rd while NASDAQ and Bitcoin made highs about two months earlier: at November 19th and 9th respectively. Let’s have a look at the markets after forming historical highs. S&P500 bounced up to 0.618~0.786 retracement level of the corrective wave structure and then dropped reaching 1.414~1.618 projection levels. Similarly, NASDAQ retraced up to 0.618 level of the correction and then dropped reaching 1.13~1.272 projection levels. In contrast, Bitcoin was much more bearish only retracing about 0.382 level and then continue to drop quite steeply reaching 0.786~0.886 projection levels. RSI indicators are also showing some different aspects for Bitcoin, compared to other indices. Both the prices of S&P500 and NASDAQ showed LL(Lower Low) while RSI of these showed HL(Higher Low) during 1/27~6/16 and thus indicating bullish divergence signals On the other hand, both the price and RSI showed LL for Bitcoin which means divergence is no longer valid. US indices generally showed decent amount of bullish rallies in between corrective waves time to time and bullish divergences appeared as well so some technical dead cat bounce or PRZ(Potential reversal zone) can be expected. However, wave structure for Bitcoin seems to be a bit more bearish due to smaller upward retracements, steeper falling waves, and absence of bullish divergence signal. Let’s then look at weakly charts which can be interpreted as more macroscopic views. I have selected the lows formed right after COVID19 shock for all these three. As can be observed, Bitcoin went through deeper retracement for about three months (4/12~7/12) throughout the bullish rally towards the historical high. After, even though Bitcoin made a swing high, this dip in the middle affected RSI to be cooled down a little bit pulling RSI down. Comparing retracement levels of each impulsive waves starting from the COVID19 for these three, 0.382~0.5, 0.5~0.618, and 0.707~0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels have been reached for S&P500, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin respectively. Bitcoin clearly has shown deeper retracement than the US Indices. Moreover, short-term bullish divergences can be observed on US Indices and mid-term bullish divergences on both NASDAQ and Bitcoin. Weekly charts indicates some signals of possible short-term dead cat bounces for US Indices and some of possible mid-term bounces for NASDAQ and Bitcoin. Personally, I think S&P500 might be a little bearish in mid-term perspective than other two.
CME:BTC1!
by Tommy_Trader
[Bitcoin] Finally, the bottom is renewed.#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - In the end, a bearish breakout of triangular convergence and a bearish breakout of the $28.1k important support line appeared. - In the medium to long term, additional drops should be kept in mind because the $28k line support has failed. If the long-term bearish Fibonacci extension level of 0.618 and the support near $25,890, where the lower end of the short-term bearish channel overlaps, succeeds, we can expect a short-term trend rebound. - If a short-term rebound occurs, we can expect an bull trend to the $29,800-$30,148 section, where the upper part of the key volume profile price is $29.8k, the long-term bearish rend Fibonacci expansion 0.5 level, $30,148, and the lower triangle convergence. - When a short-term rebound occurs in the situation where the $26,700 low is updated, if the above-mentioned resistance section of $29,800-$30,148 is broken and the $32,658.99 high is updated, the remaining June will not have a major direction, and we can be predicted a widening pattern or diamond pattern formation. - If the $25,890 support fails and goes down, you can expect support from the three large bids of $22.7k-$23.8k / $17.1k-$19.7k / $10k-$12.1k. - When a bearish trend is in progress, you must respond with the decline in the $10,909-$12,107 range, where the long-term bear trend wave Fibonacci Expansion Level 1 and the mid-term bear trend wave Fibonacci Expansion Level 1 are located.
by Tommy_Trader
2
[Bitcoin] Short-term convergence in progress.#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #1H - Bitcoin has failed to break out the $30,655 resistance and is in the process of convergence in the short term. - With the failure to break out the $30,655 important resistance line, the possibility of further drops should be left open, and confirmation of the $29,301 important support seems critical when the convergence bearish breakout occurs. - The turquoise large convergence lower end and the $23,901 important support line overlap. If that support fails, it is necessary to keep in mind the emergence of a large sell-off as a bearish breakout of the large convergence. - However, if the support of the next strong resistance, $28,750, succeeds, we can expect an extension of the large convergence. - Breakout from white convergence, $30,655 resistance, $29,301 support, $28,750 support, check these four points carefully before responding.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Ethereum] Is it really the bottom?? Will it fall more?#Crack #Ethereum #ETHUSD #Binance #Daily - Ethereum is testing the support of the section $1,651.51-$1,786.12, which provided strong support from May to July of 2021. - The Fibonacci expansion of the bear trend was supported by the 0.618 level, and VP was made, but the 0.618 level support failed in the bear trend that appeared the previous day. - The possibility of further declines should be kept in mind because of the bear trend that emerged while making a VP at the centerline of the ongoing bear trend. - If the bear trend proceeds, we can see the possibility of a bear trend to $658.95-$752.49, where the 1st level of the Fibonacci extension of the bear trend is located at the bottom of the bear trend. - If the support of the strong lows fails at $1,651.51-$1,786.12, it is highly likely to turn into strong resistance, so it is better to avoid buying in the long term. - If the $1,651.1-$1,786.12 support is successful, we can expect a bull trend to break out the $2,160.98-$2,301.88 resistance, which is located at the bottom of the bullish channel. - If a settlement is confirmed after breaking out the $2,160.98-$2,301.88 resistance, it seems that a long-term buy response can be attempted. - As the current rsi candle indicator continues to show low signals, a trend reversal can be expected. As mentioned above, in the case of a failure of the $1,651.51-$1,786.12 support, a long-term bear trend can continue.
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Convergence bearish breakout! Bearish or extention?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Without breaking the resistance of $30,444.93 mentioned in the previous briefing, it looks like Bitcoin ended with a bearish convergence due to the emergence of a sell-off. - We need to prepare for a bearish trend, but we also need to keep in mind the possibility of an extended convergence. - A successful $28,715.32 support suggests the possibility of a rebound and extension of convergence, while the $30,444.93 and $31k-$31.6k resistances remain important resistances to break out. - If the $31k-$31.6k resistance is broken, we can expect an bull trend towards the green box with the bottom of the blue bull channel. - If the $28,715.32 support fails, further bearish trend can be expected due to the downward departure of the triangular convergence, and a decline to $22.7k-$23.8k or $17.1k-$19.7k can be expected.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] End of Convergence?? Convergence extension??#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - It looks like the convergence is still in progress. - An attempt was made to break out the upper end of the convergence, but it was finished without breaking the resistance of the upper end of the convergence. Last week's strong resistance of $30,444.93 still remains. - If the bull trend closes at $30,444.93 today while continuing the previous day's bull trend, but Since the resistance of $30,444.93 cannot be broken out and there is a possibility of a bear trend or extension of convergence, there is still a risk to the reckless buying response that took advantage of the bull trend that appeared the previous day. - In the short term, if it settles after breaking out the $30,444.93 resistance, it is recommended to focus on buying responses, and if it does not break out the $30,444.93 resistance, respond mainly to selling responses. - However, there is a possibility of sudden volatility at the convergence end, so it is always necessary to set a stop loss when responding.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Failed to break out $31k resistance.Will $28K support?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Buy signals for inflection are shown in the rsi_candle and racd indicators, but Bitcoin failed to break out the $31k-$31.6k resistance and is showing signs of hang back once again. - In the rsi_candle indicator, the oversold signal rebounded with the appearance of a golden cross in the racd indicator, but the rebound failed, so I think we need to prepare for a further bearish trend. - It is still difficult to have expectations for an bull trend. Even in the appearance of past auxiliary indicators, a trend reversal after a press/up appearance after a signal often appears. Therefore, I believe it is not too late to respond after showing a proper rebound. - If a low with the bottom long tail of the candle appears in the near future, this may signal the start of a rebound. However, even if a rebound occurs, if the retest resistance at the bottom of the blue target channel located near 35k is not broken, it may show a confirmation of the $28k support again. - The section to expect support and resistance during a bearish rend or bull trend is the same as the section described in the previous briefings.
by Tommy_Trader
2
What makes trading different from gambling? [No Trading Zone]#Notradingzone #Tocademy #PrincipleTrading #Confluence Hello traders from all over the world. Observing thousands of retail traders during my lessons, lectures, and consulting, I realized that a lot of novice traders in contemporary market have some bad trading habits. Especially if you are a daily trader or scalper who usually take small and many short-term trades, please pay attention! Someday in the future, hopefully, you will eventually realize that the best and most ideal position in the world is to take neutral position. What I mean here doesn't imply that you should not trade at all and rest the whole time. After entering this world of trading, within the process of becoming a mature trader there is a time when you realize the power of the TA(Technical Analysis). Once you start to practically utilize what you have studied and even see how the numbers on your account grow, you literally become mesmerized. This magical thing called ‘Trading’ would feel like the ONE you have been searching for the whole life. I know, calm down! It feels great when the price reacts to the lines and indicators you have drawn and put on the chart by yourself. In this particular stage, I see many traders sit in front of the monitors or watch their smartphones all day long, being addicted to trading. Well, here’s a truth that I deducted through years of my trading career and the data that I have researched; addictive traders hardly become successfully. Always remember that our ultimate purpose of trading is to solely make money, not just for fun. Of course, making money would be fun but for some of you, the priorities of these two are switched. Before you even notice, you might find yourself gambling rather than trading. Now put your hands down, close your eyes, and think for a minute. Are you anxious when you are not in a position? Do you frequently regret that you closed your position too early? Do you become angry when you miss big long or short? Are you so urgent to recover your loss as soon as possible? Does trading disturb your primary work? (Hard to focus both, isn’t it?) Does trading masses up your lifestyle and relationship with people? If you replied ‘Yes’ to majority of the questions, please cancel all of the pending orders right now, turn off the chart, get some rest, and forget about trading just for a while. I understand more than anyone that you are full of desire to chase all these micro trends or minor waves in 1 minute chart. Especially those who are trying to recover all the losses you made this week ASAP, before you encounter a bigger loss, trust me, take some time, and cool your head. I am sorry to say but you might be more of a gambler than a trader right now. Sure, there would be few that still do fine with all those conditions but if you eventually keep ending up bad due to excessive entries or lose entire seed at one cue after series of consecutive wins, your addiction might be interfering your judgment. Irrational trading decisions are the biggest risk that human traders have to face and restraining our emotions during trading is integral. (Please click the image/link below for details) As the image below indicates, since we humans cannot perfectly control our emotions every single day, the total number of trades and the net performance are not always proportional in a short-term period. In other words, spotting thousands of entries in a single day does not always lead to daily accumulative profit. Not only you pay high transaction fees, but your physical and mental exhaustion can lower your concentration seducing your irrationalized perceptions to break your trading principles. Accordingly, the more excessive amount of time spent looking into the chart, the more likely our logical sense becomes numb and vague which can easily cause FUD and FOMO. Researches have shown that the relationship between the entry rates and the performance (per certain period of time) of retail traders is averaged out as a curved shape with a local maximum coordinate. This peak point implies the ideal amount of profit and entries of a trader. It would be different for each trader depending on their preferences, capabilities, and other circumstances. For instance, 3~4 entries and $10,000 profit per day might be ideal set or oriented goals for some traders, while 10~15 entries and $100 profit per day might be those for other traders. Hence it is important for us to figure out each of our own boundary and refer to it when designing strategies and PnL first of all. Therefore, a well systematically designed strategy that can effectively weigh and quantify technical signals based on the scientific and reliable evidences must be adapted. Once validities of each are scaled, we would be able to comprehend which signals are relatively more reliable than others. Shown on the main image above, even though entering a 80% credibility zone will provide low entry rate, higher RR ratio and win-rate can be achieved. We need to train ourselves to be able to call “No Trading Zone” when the identified trends and derived price action zones do not meet the minimum standards of our own. Some of the talented and successful daily traders I’ve met are not very much different from most of us here. They analyze the market and design trading setups just like we do. If anything, that made them superior, they have a proficient sense for spotting the “No Trading Zone”. They are amazingly good at consistently stepping aside if the signals are not reliable enough or do not meet their standards. They know time is on their side and they wait in patient. It's just simply deciding whether to take certain trades or not, filtering out some of less potential entries and maintaining no position when they are less convinced about the signals, but these tiny differences ultimately result in a huge difference in performances. Investors who trade with technical charts like us can measure the credibility of signals based on the confluency of technical signs and indicators. Here are two traders: trader A and B. Trader A considers eight signals (techniques, indicators, and theories). For example, trader A observes volumes, trendline, Fibonacci levels, moving averages, Bollinger band, Ichimoku cloud, RSI, Stochastic, and Elliott wave theory. Trader A won’t enter position unless majority of those signals are giving signs simultaneously relatively at the same price and time. On the other hand, trader B only considers trendline and moving averages. If only one of the two gives a signal, trader B enters immediately. Which trader would be more successful? Even though entry rate is low, trader A would be able to secure higher RR ratio and win-rates because the trends and price action zones that trader A has deducted through TA are more reliable than those deducted by trader B. As mentioned, Confluence Zone is an area where multiple technical evidences overlap at the same price or time period. In TA world which is 2-dimensional, a price action zone would be expressed with a dot, a line or a box. When multiple indicators signal certain trends and PRZs both in price and time wise, we need to keep our eyes on those coordinates. We as a trader, need to utilize these confluence zones which indicate major price range within certain time period, to design trading setups. The more overlapping elements there are, the higher RR ratio and win-rate we can secure. And this is what makes gambling different from trading. Both of us fight with numbers, but we can control that numbers while gambler cannot manipulate the RR ratios and the win-rates they are given. Thanks for reading my post. I will see you guys next time! Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are the greatest motivations for me to write more posts!
Education
by Tommy_Trader
4
[Bitcoin] Attempt to reboud at $29.8K, how far can it go?#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - Bitcoin is trying to rebound after falling to the $28.1k-$29.8k section, which was importantly mentioned after the last briefing. - The green trend line connecting the low on January 4 and the low on June 22 also shows a rebound in the overlapping section and a signal of the possibility of a continued trend reversal in the RACD candle indicator, so if the 31k-31.6k resistance is broken, $35,071 and blue bullish channel lower resistance retest draws an bull trend. - A break of $35k is important if a strong rebound occurs. Even after the breakout, the $35k support retest should be successful until the $37.8k-$39.4k resistance breakout, where the lower resistance of the bearish flag pattern is located. - If the $28.1k-$29.8k support fails after the failure to break out the $31k-$31.6k resistance, as mentioned in the previous briefing, a decline to the $10k-$12k should also considered in the future scenario.
by Tommy_Trader
2
[Bitcoin] Fail to support the bull trend channel..#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - This is the appearance of Bitcoin's bearish breakout at the bottom of the blue large bull channel. - It seemed to rebound while keeping the $35,071 closing support level, but it showed a bearish trend again the day before and eventually fell. - In the event of a rebound, it is important to settle upwards of $35,071, and keep in mind that even after an upward stabilization, the bearish trend continues until it breaks above the $37,578 upwards. - If an additional decline occurs, a decline to $31k-$31.6k can be expected, and if the support in the above section fails, it is likely to decline even to $28.1k-$29.8k, which provided strong support. - If the $28.1k-$29.8k support fails, there is a possibility that a bearish departure of the bear flag pattern has appeared from the appearance since November, and there is a possibility that a gloomy period of falling to the simple target price of the pattern of $10k-$12.1k may appear.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Is it finally rebound? But still be careful!#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily #briefing - Bitcoin, which had been on a bull trend since the start of the daily candle the day before, showed an additional bull trend following the announcement that Powell's interest rate hike of 75bps was not considered and broke the $39.2k-$39.5k resistance. - Further bull trend can be expected with a strong rebound at the bottom of the orange bull trend channel and the $37.7k support section, but I think it is too early to say that it has completely turned into a bullish trend as it failed to break out the resistance of $39,742, the closing price that was resisted during the previous movement. - $39.2k-$39.5k support is important when the $39,742 resistance is failed, and if the support in the corresponding area fails, we can expect a further bearish trend to confirm the $38,525 support. - If the $39.2k-$39.5k or $38,525 support is successful and rebounds, we can expect an upside to $41.5k-$41.9k in the short term and $43.9k-$44.5k in the long term. - If a correction appears by $38,525 but support fails, consider the possibility of a $35k-$34.2k support confirmation. - As mentioned above, as it failed to break out of the $39,742 resistance, there seems to be a risk in chasing after the previous day's bull trend.
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Bitcoin] Finally Rebounding!! Expectations are 43.9k-44.5k!!#Crack #Bitcoin #Binance #Daily - It looks like a rebound is emerging from the $37k-$37.7k I mentioned over and over again. - Bitcoin is showing a strong rebound since the low of $37,386 the day before, and seems to be trying to break out the resistance above the blue bearish wedge. - A break of the $39.2k-$39.5k resistance seems important if the break above the blue bearish wedge. If that resistance is not broken, we should keep in mind the possibility of retest support at the intersection of the upper wedge, $37.7k and the lower orange bull trend channel. - If the retest support is successful after being pressed, the three golden crosses of the RACD indicator will also serve as a strong bull trend. At this time, the long-term target price can be expected to rise to the resistance of $43.9k-$44.5k, which is the overlapping section of the orange bull trend centerline, the sky blue high-trend line and $43.9k. - However, it is recommended to carefully examine the $41.5k-$41.9k resistor located before $43.9k-$44.5k. - If the $37k-$37.7k support fails, $34.2k-$34.6k support is very important, and if the $34,322 low is renewed, the possibility of a big bear trend should be taken into account as the breakout of the lower blue long-term bull trend channel is possible.
by Tommy_Trader
1