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EURGBP | Some entry points with nice RRs#EURGBP #4HR #FXCM - FX likes parallel channels very much these days. I am waiting EUR/GBP to break the top of blue falling wedge which I find it very steep. - The area that caused a sharp bounce today is the confluence zone where yellow channel and bottom of the wedge overlap. - If we see another swing low, I am expecting to enter long position at the support at 0.83390~0.83530. - This zone is where bottom of white channel, green trendline, bottom of the wedge, and 1.13 expansion level all exist and is only valid until 23:00 January 5th of 2022 in Korean time (UTC+9). - Long trading setups can be designed as below: Long EP: 0.83530 SL: 0.83310 (-220Pips) TP1: 0.83980 (+450Pips) RR: 2.05 TP2: 0.84490 (+960Pips) RR: 4.36
Long
by Tommy_Trader
Does 200k sound absurd? All of the possible scenarios for BTC#BTCUSD #Bitstamp #Weekly #Log #EW - Hello traders from all over the world! It’s been a while since we’ve looked deep into the possible scenarios of Bitcoin in long-term EW perspective. The uploaded images are BTC weekly log scaled chart. Personally, I believe that spotting market trend and price actions utilizing Elliott wave theory is not that significant. So please just refer this post to roughly capture some possible trend flows and major PRZs (Potential Reversal Zone). - All of the cases I have prepared today have an assumption that the upward wave starting from the low at $3000 is an impulsive wave cycle(Blue wave 5). Or else there would be too many for me to cover in an upload. Scenarios with different assumptions are to be covered in the future. - Let’s start with scenario A first, my most bearish case. This wave counts regard that the current upward wave(30k~70k) is green sub-wave 5 of the blue wave 5. Even though I drew the whole impulsive black wave cycle in A-1, it is still possible that green wave 5 is still in progress as shown in A-2. This means that we might expect one more upward wave and the rough target price for wave 5 is around 95K~120K. - Scenario B implies that the on-going wave(30k~70k) is sub-wave B of the green wave 4. This case has reflected that this very wave structure is closer to 5-3-5-3-5 rather than 5-3-5 zigzags and thus expanded flat wave B was considered. It is more bullish than the first scenario in a longer term, but bearish in a shorter term. If Bitcoin makes a high higher than 69K, this wave count is no more valid and the scenario A-2 becomes more likely. The green wave 4 is targeted at 17k~23k. - Following case which interpreted that the green wave 3 has not ended, is scenario C. This count is somewhat similar to scenario A that the upward wave(30k~70k) has been considered as an impulsive, but this case regarded with lower degree(red). C-1 shows that the target price for green wave 4 is similar to that of scenario B when 69K is considered as the end of green wave 3. On the other hand, similar to A-2, C-2 also implied that black sub-wave 5 of green wave 3 has not ended yet and 95k~120k would be a rough target. After that if we see a corrective wave, possibly green wave 4, the green wave 5 can be targeted at 180k~220k. More precise targets are to be deducted later when more sub wave structures are formed. - Last but not least, scenario D is assuming that the ongoing wave is the black sub-wave 4 of the green wave 3. This case also applied the expanded flat just like scenario B, but lower wave degree has been counted. If Bitcoin succeeds on breaking the high at 69k, this case becomes invalid and scenario C will gain some weight. Similar target prices from the previous cases are regarded for black wave 4 and 5 and the green wave 4 and 5 will be specified after.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tommy_Trader
2
Always perceive your risk first, before determining the reward#EURGBP #Daily #Europound #FOREX #Tommy - The market has been quite tough for many commodities recently due to the effects of the global economy. - The FX market is not exceptional and it has never been this brutal. Nevertheless, who should we blame as a trader? It’s not the whales or other stakeholders in the market. It should be ourselves since trading is a series of endless battles against our own ego. - Here is Euro/British Pound daily which I trade very often. I found a confluent support zone at 0.83400~0.83900 which might be a good entry for a decent risk reward ratio. - Below is a long trading setup where stoploss and target prices are written in percentage instead of pips (or ticks). Make sure to use proper leverages or pips and also check if the position size can be covered by your seed money. Long (Valid until Nov 15th) EP: 0.83900 SL: 0.83250 (-0.77%) TP1: 0.84920 (+1.22%) TP2: 0.85960 (+2.46%)
by Tommy_Trader
2
BTC is a finest SL hunter these days. #BTCUSDT #Binance #Daily #Midterm - What a sharp drop! Bitcoin was rejected thoroughly at 52K zone which is around bottom of the major orderblock formed around early May 2021. - I have addressed this very resistance gathering technical factors such as numerous upward trendlines, top of the parallel channels, and projection/expansion/retracement levels of the wave structures. - In my Elliott Wave perspective, since Bitcoin has failed swing high, I am leaning slightly more towards the 52K high being the end of the wave B and thus expecting another bearish wave to come which then would be wave C. - In a shorter term, make sure to consistently check whether bottoms of the yellow and white channels are valid. - From the fact that the bottom of the recent dip happens to be located at the LVP(Low Volume Peak), I will definitely be more bearish if bottom of the yellow channel fails supporting. - Here are some of the areas that I find them attractive to enter long position if we observe more drops: 37K~38K (Valid until 9/18), 33.2K~34.8K (Valid until 10/05). - If these supports are broken later, according to many wave theories and methodologies, I strongly expect Bitcoin to rally down to test the mid-term bottom around 29K. The ultimatum support that I am considering is around 23K~25K. - Lastly, if Bitcoin sort of forms widening or broadening pattern and make an HH, the next resistance that I deducted is 56.5K~58.5K.
by Tommy_Trader
Reason why I am bearish on 10Y T-Note#ZN1! #10YearTNote #Weekly #CBOT - I took a deep look into the 10-year Treasury Note, futures commodity. The chart above is weekly. - In Elliott Wave Theory perspective, an assumption has been made that the bullish wave starting from the swing low at 117’13’5 to the swing high at 140’20’0 as am impulsive 5-3-5-3-5 zig zag wave structure. - With that said, I am weighing more on the possibility that the bullish wave from 130’25’0 to 135’15’0 is an 5-3-5 ABC corrective phase and this scenario becomes a bit more solid if bottom of the blue channel fails supporting. - While expecting another corrective wave, a major confluent zone to keep an eye on is the red circle on the chart. This is where an inner downward trendline, a neckline (green trendline), and 0.382 retracement level overlaps. - However, entering long here seems quite risky considering the RR ratio. Also, if the potential neckline (green trendline) breaks below, I am way more bearish expecting widening/broadening pattern. - Those aggressive traders willing to take the risk here (buying at red circle), make sure to set a tight stoploss. I would rather be patient and wait until the price action gets confirmed and enter short if the trendline fails supporting. - Here are some of the decent areas to enter long position if the H&S case is likely after observing failure of support at the neckline: 128’5~129’5 and 124’9~125’9.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Tommy_Trader
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin#BTCUSDT #Binance #4HR #Midterm #Elliottwave - It’s been a while everyone. Today I’ve brought up some of the possible scenarios for Bitcoin based on the Elliott wave Theory. EW traders can refer to my insights and perspectives on midterm trends and major supports/resistances. - Out of countless Elliott Wave counts, I’ve summarized those that are relatively more plausible and credible. All the cases here were interpreted assuming that the all-time high at 65K(on Binance Chart) is the start of a corrective waves, either as 5-3-5 corrective wave or 5-3-5-3-5 impulsive wave(regarding it as a wave A). - First of all, let’s look at the scenario A. The swing low formed at 7/21 has been considered as the end of the 5-3-5-3-5 yellow bearish impulsive wave, and thus a whole green wave A. Then the bullish wave structure after that low can be interpreted as green wave B. In this case, Bitcoin is going through yellow wave B of the green wave C and their target prices are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until 8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. - Similarly, scenario B also indicates that Bitcoin is forming green wave B currently, but is a bit different that the start of the yellow wave A is at the low formed at 6/22 rather than 7/21. If bears become more dominant from this current price, we can target yellow wave B within the green wave B, at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20). - Scenario C is one of my bearish counts, viewing that yellow bearish impulsive wave is still ongoing. Adapting the Elliott wave rule that the micro wave 5 of the macro wave 3 cannot be truncated, I have comprehended the low at 6/22 as the yellow wave 3. Hence, the upward wave after becomes yellow wave 4. In this case, we have to make sure that the recent high doesn’t overlap the end of yellow wave 1 which means if Bitcoin succeeds to make higher swing, this counting becomes invalid. The yellow wave 5 can be targeted at 32.8K~34.0K(Valid until 9/20) and 25.6K~26.9K. - My bullish scenario is the last one. Here, I have considered the current circumstance that the green ABC corrective wave is done and we are now on a new bullish impulsive wave. Whether the end of the green wave C is the low at 6/22 or 7/21, the bullish wave structure can be interpreted as an impulsive wave. In other words, Bitcoin is on yellow wave 3 or 5 of the green wave 1. If Bitcoin shows some bullish movement, the target prices of the green wave 1 are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. On the other hand, if we observe failure of the swing high, then green wave 2 is to be targeted at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20).
by Tommy_Trader
2
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin#BTCUSDT #Binance #4HR #Midterm #Elliottwave - It’s been a while everyone. Today I’ve brought up some of the possible scenarios for Bitcoin based on the Elliott wave Theory. EW traders can refer to my insights and perspectives on midterm trends and major supports/resistances. - Out of countless Elliott Wave counts, I’ve summarized those that are relatively more plausible and credible. All the cases here were interpreted assuming that the all-time high at 65K(on Binance Chart) is the start of a corrective waves, either as 5-3-5 corrective wave or 5-3-5-3-5 impulsive wave(regarding it as a wave A). - First of all, let’s look at the scenario A. The swing low formed at 7/21 has been considered as the end of the 5-3-5-3-5 yellow bearish impulsive wave, and thus a whole green wave A. Then the bullish wave structure after that low can be interpreted as green wave B. In this case, Bitcoin is going through yellow wave B of the green wave C and their target prices are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until 8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. - Similarly, scenario B also indicates that Bitcoin is forming green wave B currently, but is a bit different that the start of the yellow wave A is at the low formed at 6/22 rather than 7/21. If bears become more dominant from this current price, we can target yellow wave B within the green wave B, at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20). - Scenario C is one of my bearish counts, viewing that yellow bearish impulsive wave is still ongoing. Adapting the Elliott wave rule that the micro wave 5 of the macro wave 3 cannot be truncated, I have comprehended the low at 6/22 as the yellow wave 3. Hence, the upward wave after becomes yellow wave 4. In this case, we have to make sure that the recent high doesn’t overlap the end of yellow wave 1 which means if Bitcoin succeeds to make higher swing, this counting becomes invalid. The yellow wave 5 can be targeted at 32.8K~34.0K(Valid until 9/20) and 25.6K~26.9K. - My bullish scenario is the last one. Here, I have considered the current circumstance that the green ABC corrective wave is done and we are now on a new bullish impulsive wave. Whether the end of the green wave C is the low at 6/22 or 7/21, the bullish wave structure can be interpreted as an impulsive wave. In other words, Bitcoin is on yellow wave 3 or 5 of the green wave 1. If Bitcoin shows some bullish movement, the target prices of the green wave 1 are 50.8K~52.0K(valid until8/18) and 53.3K~54.5K. On the other hand, if we observe failure of the swing high, then green wave 2 is to be targeted at 36.5K~37.7K(valid until 8/29) and 32.8K~34.0K(valid until 9/20).
by Tommy_Trader
Some of possible scenarios for Bitcoin#BTCUSDT #Binance #Daily #Tommy - Assuming that the high formed at 42K on Jan 9th of 2021 is the blue impulsive wave 3, these are some of the Elliott wave countings that I am personally in consideration. - The counting at the upper left is one of my primary scenarios that Bitcoin is going through. I denoted the upward impulsive wave at 29K~66K as an ending diagonal wave 5 along with the downward corrective wave after most likely being the wave A. - Observing the wave structures located at the top, I could also suspect the 66K high as the expanded flat wave B (upper right) and the following correction afterwards would then become a WXY correction where wave failure has occurred. The reason I included this scenario is that the wave structure at 50K~66K seems more like a 5-3-5, rather then 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. - The bottom left one is where I viewed the high at 60K as truncated wave 5. Similar to the second scenario, the bearish price momentum that reached 30K then can be interpreted as wave A. I am not putting so much weight on this one since the yellow wave 3 within the blue wave 5 seems a bit obscure. - Lastly, the wave counting at bottom right is one of my most bullish scenarios where the downward waves after the 60K high are considered as the ABC corrective waves. This means that the correction are done and thus the new impulsive wave cycle is starting.
by Tommy_Trader
2
CADUSD | When and where to enter long and short#CADUSD #Futures #6CM2021 #1HR - Here is CADUSD futures 1hr chart. Currently, yellow upward trendline is supporting and a short-term bottom has been formed at 0.82370. I am more bearish when this bottom fails supporting. - When that happens before 5/20 19:00, I am looking at 0.82200~0.82280 as a short-term support. If you wish to enter long here, make sure to take profit under the previous bottom at 0.82370 since it will then act as a resistance due to SR Flip. - On the other hand, if CADUSD rallies upward to test the top of the white channel before 5/20 18:00, 0.82760~0.82840 seems to be a decent resistance. If white channel gets broken above, 0.82990~0.83070 is next resistance I am considering. - If the market gets bearish and goes through some more correction, here are some of the supports for long entry: 0.81530~0.81630, 0.81110~0.81210, and 0.80540~0.80670. - All of the periodic references are in Korean standard time (UTC+09:00).
CME:6CM2021
by Tommy_Trader
Don't dare try to forecast Prices at future. Unless you are GOD.#BTCUSDT #Binance #4HR #Tommy - Here is BTC 4hr that showed a sharp V shaped bounce around 30K with that long candle tail at bottom and this tells us that the bulls rejected bears very hard thus pushing the price up. - The new low at 30K is where the log-scaled trendline passes. Reason why we need to watch both the linear and log chart. - For now, the most significant resistance is located at 41K~42K which I marked it with a red box. This resistance has numerous technical factors overlapping each other. - Blue downward trendline, bottom of the purple parallel channel, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the corrective wave, 1:1 extension level of the correction wave structure at top, and previous major consolidations are all passing this zone. - Rather than entering short at this very area, taking action after confirming the breakout of this level sounds like a much safer trade. If BTC breaks this area above, I would be bullish for short-term. - This breakout is also very meaningful because it means that BTC re-entered the purple parallel channel. - Some of the short-term resistances to keep our eyes on are 44.5K~45.1K, 48.2K~49.2K, and 50.8K~51.8K.
by Tommy_Trader
1
If 46K fails supporting, expect some bears!#BTCUSDT #Binance #4hr #Tommy - Here is Bitcoin 4hr chart. A consolidation zone where price tends to move sideways, is currently being constructed in the range of 46K~51K. Here are some of major points to be updated. - A strong bottom has been consolidated around 46K which could be speculated from the point that it made about 4 meaningful lows recently. This technical circumstance recommends taking trading actions after this bottom breaks below, rather than entering long here. - More specifically, entering short once this bottom shows some signals of failure to support or entering long after confirming next support’s reinforcement. - In a shorter term, green short-term downward trendline has been broken over and if BTC corrects and reaches the retest zone (46700~47400) before 5/17 08:00, entering long with a tight stoploss seems like a nice setup. - Pay attention to the major downward parallel channels such as the green and orange ones. Observing the bottom of these channels and other technical factors, 43800~444000(valid until 5/21 1700), 41300~42200(Valid until 5/22 13:00), and 38400~39400 seems like some major supports. - Resistances that could be considered are 51800~52300(Valid until 5/19 21:00), 53800~54400(valid until 5/21 21:00), 57400~58200(valid until 5/21 21:00), and 60400~61300(Valid until 5/22 21:00). - RSI for 4hr shows that it is moving in a green downward trendline. Within that channel with a shorter term, a purple upward channel also exists, A decent resistance could be expected when RSI reaches the area where these tops overlap each other.
by Tommy_Trader
8
Elon Musk and Bart Simpson are definitely allies.#BTCUSDT #4HR #Binance #Tommy - Elon Musk is abusing the finance market. Tesla’s recent announcement that they will no longer adopt Crypto technology for their payment system, has shocked the market. - Technically, a rounded head pattern that signals the trend reversal had been formed before a big correction. Some of the similar patterns that could be interpreted as a possible trend reversal, would be Head&Shoulder, diamond, and cup&handle. - Anyhow, according to Binance BTCUSDT 4hr chart, Lower Low has been confirmed around 46K. This is not a huge gap so it could also be considered as a double bottom. In Elliott wave perspective, the current bearish momentum being wave C would be my major bearish counting. - Some of the major supports are 43900~44500(Valid until 5/19 05:00), 41500~42500(Valid5/21 13:00), and 38400~39400. - Lastly considerable resistances are located at 52300~52800, 53800~54400(Valid until 5/17 13:00), 57400~58200(Valid until 5/19 21:00), and 60500~61200(Valid until 5/23 1:00). - All of the periodic references are in Korean standard time (UTC+09:00).
by Tommy_Trader
5
GBPUSD | Pound it up dear Pound!Here are some of the major supports that I've recently found for GBPUSD. - 1.3939~1.3949, 1.3905~1.3915, and 1.3876~1.3886 Long (Valid until 5/14 04:00) EP: 1.3949 SL: 1.3935 (-14 ticks) TP1: 1.3972 (+23 ticks) TP2: 1.3998 (+49 ticks) Long (Valid until 5/14 19:00) EP: 1.3915 SL: 1.3901 (-14 ticks) TP1: 1.3929 (+14 ticks) TP2: 1.3939 (+24 ticks) Long (Valid until 5/14 19:00) EP: 1.3886 SL: 1.3862 (-24 ticks) TP1: 1.3927 (+41 ticks) TP2: 1.3944 (+58 ticks)
CME:6BM2021
by Tommy_Trader
GBPJPY | Currently in the area to expect high risk reward ratio#GBPJPY #Forex #Weekly #SwingTrades Considerable Support and Resistance Support: 140.000~142.500 (Valid until 6/24) Resistance: 154.500~156.500 (Valid until 5/31) Short (Valid until 5/31) EP: 155.500 SL: 158.600 (-3100 pips) TP1: 149.500 (+6000 pips, RR: 1.94) TP2: 144.500 (+11127 pips, RR: 3.59) #GBPJPY #Forex #Weekly #SwingTrades Considerable Support and Resistance Support: 140.000~142.500 (Valid until 6/24) Resistance: 154.500~156.500 (Valid until 5/31) Short (Valid until 5/31) EP: 155.500 SL: 158.600 (-3100 pips) TP1: 149.500 (+6000 pips, RR: 1.94) TP2: 144.500 (+11127 pips, RR: 3.59)
by Tommy_Trader
Consistent rejections... another dip before new highs? - Sharing some thoughts on BTC on 4hr chart. - The primary factor to monitor would be whether or not the bottom of the yellow upward parallel channel can successfully support BTC. It’s the red box on the chart. - If it fails supporting, BTC is most likely to get into corrective phase and at least test the bottom at $55200. - I have marked some of considerable areas to expect decent supports and resistances. - Rest of the descriptions are written on the chart above.
by Tommy_Trader
1
Bitcoin. More correction?#Bitcoin #XBTUSD #Daily #Tommy - Here is XBT daily chart. After a massive bullrun up until 42k, Bitcoin has broken the blue upward trendline below and has been on its correction phase. - Making lower highs and lows, it is currently forming a falling wedge. Moreover, it’s testing the support of the inner upward trendline which I have marked it with yellow dotted line. - At the same time, it is testing the short-term bottom around 30400. It has been a great support for last few days but doesn’t seem that it will last long. - So for those traders waiting for more correction, make sure the daily candle closes under both the yellow inner trendline and the 30400. - In Elliott Wave theory perspective, I have interpreted the correction structure as WXY where another 5-3-5 zigzag ABC correction waves are to be expected. - Here are some of the supports that I am considering. 26500~27500 (valid until 2/4) 23500~24500 (valid until 2/6) 19300~20300 (valid until 2/11) - Traders wishing to enter long on these supports, make sure to consider the validation date.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Tommy_Trader
EURUSD watchout for the blue trendline above !#EURUSD #Weekly #Tommy - Here is EURUSD weekly chart. Assuming that the impulsive uptrend wave cycle has started from the low at 0.82311 that was formed around 2001, here is my Elliott wave counts. - I interpreted the corrective phase as WXY structure where wave X has tried to make a swing high, but has failed and thus the correction cycle is considered as extended. - Make sure to pay attention on the blue long term downward trendline located above. It EURUSD has been resisted by this very trendline about three times. When it succeeds to break above, some bullish waves are to be expected. - EURUSD has recently broke the orange sideway channel (which I am considering it as a contraction phase) above. It had broken the top of the channel at 2017~2018, but went back into it after forming a head and shoulder pattern. - Therefore, for those traders who are waiting for the long position at the retest area around 1.15, make sure to set your stop loss tight since it can of course happen twice. - The chart above is daily timeframe. In a shorter term, the green trendline has failed supporting and made lower highs and lows. - The entries for long position that I find it as attractive are 1.14300~1.15000, 1.11200~1.11900, and 1.09700~1.10400 - One factor that I am putting some weights on is the weekly MACD. At relatively high level, death cross has emerged which can be signaled as bearish. - At the same time, weekly RSI’s support at 53.75 is also being tested. If the RSI breaks this line below and the next weekly candle closes, I am more bearish on EURUSD for a while.
by Tommy_Trader