Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 28, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📊 Core PCE Inflation Data Release: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February is set to be released. Economists anticipate a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth, aligning with previous figures. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this data could influence monetary policy decisions.
🇺🇸🛍️ Consumer Spending and Income Reports: February's personal income and spending reports are due, with forecasts indicating a 0.4% rise in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending. These figures will provide insights into consumer behavior and economic momentum.
🇺🇸🏠 Pending Home Sales Data: The Pending Home Sales Index for February is scheduled for release, with expectations of a 2.0% increase, following a 1.0% rise in January. This index offers a forward-looking perspective on housing market activity.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, March 28:
💵 Personal Income (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.4%
Previous: +0.9%
Measures the change in income received from all sources by consumers.
🛍️ Personal Spending (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.5%
Previous: -0.2%
Tracks the change in the value of spending by consumers.
📈 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year
Previous: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year
Reflects changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: +2.0%
Previous: +1.0%
Indicates the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Tomorrow
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 27, 2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸🚗 Auto Tariffs Announced: President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the U.S., effective April 2. This move is expected to impact the automotive industry and could influence market sentiment.
🇬🇧📉 UK Inflation Falls: UK inflation has decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, raising speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in May. This development may have implications for global markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, March 27:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 223,000
Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market.
📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Revision (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth
Previous: 2.3%
Provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.0%
Previous: -4.6%
Measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸🛍️ Amazon Spring Sale Impact 🛍️: Amazon’s Big Spring Sale is underway, and increased consumer activity could lift retail sector sentiment this week. Watch for broader impacts on e-commerce competitors and discretionary stocks.
🇬🇧📉 UK Growth Outlook Cut 📉: Ahead of the UK's Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise growth forecasts downward. While not U.S.-centric, weaker UK economic momentum may influence broader global risk sentiment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🏠 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET):
Forecast: +4.4% YoY
Previous: +4.5% YoY
A gauge of housing market strength based on home price changes in 20 U.S. metro areas.
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
Measures consumers’ outlook on business and labor conditions. A key sentiment driver.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 679K annualized
Previous: 657K
Tracks the number of newly constructed homes sold. Sensitive to rates and affordability.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 24–28, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Inflation Data 📈: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February on Friday, March 28. This index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, maintaining a 2.5% year-over-year growth. These figures will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇬🇧💼 UK's Spring Statement and Economic Outlook 💼: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the UK's Spring Statement to Parliament this week, addressing revised growth forecasts and fiscal policies. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower growth estimates, potentially impacting global markets, including the U.S., due to economic interlinkages.
🇨🇳📊 China's Manufacturing and Services PMIs 📊: China will release its official Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) for March on March 28. These indicators will provide insights into the health of China's economy, with potential implications for global trade and U.S. markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Monday, March 24:
🏭 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET) 🏭:
Forecast: 51.5
Previous: 52.7
This index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion.
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
This index measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions, with higher readings indicating greater confidence.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏘️:
Forecast: 679,000 annualized units
Previous: 657,000
This report indicates the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month, reflecting the health of the housing market.
📅 Wednesday, March 26:
🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️:
Forecast: -1.0%
Previous: 3.2%
This data reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
📅 Thursday, March 27:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 223,000
This report provides the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market.
📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📈:
Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth
Previous: 2.3%
This release provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:
Forecast: 1.0%
Previous: -4.6%
This index measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales.
📅 Friday, March 28:
💵 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💵:
Forecast for Personal Income: 0.4%
Previous: 0.9%
Forecast for Personal Spending: 0.6%
Previous: -0.2%
This report indicates changes in personal income and spending, providing insights into consumer behavior.
💹 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💹:
Forecast: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
Previous: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
This index measures changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:
Previous: 592 rigs
This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 21, 2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇯🇵📉 Japan's Inflation Data Release 📉: Japan will release its inflation figures for February on March 21. Analysts expect a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from January's 4.0% to approximately 3.5%. This data could influence global markets, including the U.S., as it may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, March 21:
🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:
Previous: 592 rigs
This weekly report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the health of the oil and gas industry.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 20, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇨🇳🏦 People's Bank of China (PBOC) Interest Rate Decision 🏦: On March 20, the PBOC will announce its latest interest rate decision. While specific expectations are not detailed, any adjustments could influence global markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
🇬🇧🏦 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision 🏦: The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on March 20. Analysts anticipate that the central bank will maintain the current rate at 4.5%, following a recent reduction. This decision will be closely watched for its implications on the UK economy and global financial markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Thursday, March 20:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health.
Forecast: 225,000
Previous: 220,000
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET) 🏭:This index measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district, with positive numbers indicating expansion.
Forecast: 10.0
Previous: 18.1
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:This data reflects the annualized number of previously constructed homes sold during the prior month, offering insights into the housing market's strength.
Forecast: 3.95 million annualized units
Previous: 4.08 million annualized units
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 19, 2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸🏦 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 🏦: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, March 19, at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Investors will closely monitor the Fed's economic projections and Powell's comments for insights into future monetary policy, especially in light of ongoing trade tensions and global economic uncertainties.
🇯🇵💴 Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision 💴: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on March 19. The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady, as policymakers assess the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on Japan's export-driven economy. The yen has remained stable ahead of the announcement, with traders awaiting the BOJ's guidance on future monetary policy.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Wednesday, March 19:
🏢 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏢:This report measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold during the previous month, providing insight into the strength of the housing market.
Forecast: 5.50 million annualized units
Previous: 5.47 million annualized units
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 14, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸⚠️ Potential U.S. Government Shutdown ⚠️: The United States faces a potential government shutdown on March 14 if lawmakers fail to agree on the 2025 budget. This impasse could lead to the closure of government agencies and furloughs of federal employees, impacting various sectors and potentially affecting market sentiment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, March 14:
🛒 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:This index measures consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power, providing insights into consumer sentiment.
Forecast: 64.0
Previous: 64.7
🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's health.
Previous: 592
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 13, 2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇰🇷🇺🇸 South Korea's Trade Minister Visits U.S. 🇰🇷🇺🇸: South Korea's Trade Minister, Cheong In-kyo, is visiting Washington, D.C., from March 13 to 14 to discuss trade issues, including reciprocal tariffs and investment opportunities, with U.S. counterparts. This visit aims to address concerns about tariffs following President Trump's comments regarding disparities between U.S. and South Korean tariffs. The outcome of these discussions could impact sectors reliant on U.S.-South Korea trade relations.
🇩🇪🛠️ German Debt Reform Debates 🇩🇪🛠️: Germany's Bundestag is set to begin debates on debt reform plans starting March 13, focusing on increasing infrastructure spending and reforming state borrowing rules to fund defense. The proposed creation of a €500 billion infrastructure fund aims to stimulate the economy. These reforms could influence European economic stability, indirectly affecting U.S. markets through global economic interconnections.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Thursday, March 13:
🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET) 🏭:The PPI measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends.
Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month
Previous: +0.4% month-over-month
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health.
Forecast: 226K
Previous: 221K
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 12, 2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ceasefire Proposal in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺: Ukraine has expressed willingness to accept a month-long ceasefire proposal, leading to a surge in the euro to five-month highs. This development has introduced volatility in European and U.S. equity markets, influenced by ongoing U.S. tariff plans.
🇺🇸🇨🇦 U.S. Tariff Increases on Canadian Imports 🇺🇸🇨🇦: President Trump has threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%, escalating trade tensions and contributing to a deepening stock market sell-off. This move has raised concerns about inflation and economic growth, affecting investor confidence.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Wednesday, March 12:
📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) 📈:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation.
Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month
Previous: +0.3% month-over-month
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 11, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇯🇵🤝 Japan-U.S. Trade Discussions 🤝: Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto is visiting Washington from March 9–11 to engage in discussions with U.S. officials. The talks aim to strengthen economic ties and address trade concerns, including potential exemptions for Japanese exports from proposed U.S. tariffs. These negotiations could influence sectors such as automotive and steel, impacting market dynamics.
🇨🇳📊 China's National People's Congress (NPC) Developments 📊: The 2025 National People's Congress is underway in Beijing from March 5–11. Key economic targets and policy directions set during the NPC may affect global markets, including the U.S., especially in areas related to trade, technology, and foreign investment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 11:
📄 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET) 📄:This report provides data on job openings, hires, and separations, offering a comprehensive view of the labor market's dynamics.
Forecast: 7.71 million
Previous: 7.6 million
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 10–14, 2025 🔮🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇨🇳📉 China's Retaliatory Tariffs 📉: In response to U.S. tariffs, China has imposed up to 15% tariffs on U.S. products, including cotton, chicken, corn, and soybeans. This escalation raises concerns about a potential global trade war, which could negatively impact U.S. exporters and broader market sentiment.
🇪🇺💶 European Fiscal Expansion 💶: Germany has announced significant increases in defense and infrastructure spending, marking a shift in fiscal policy. This move may stimulate European economic growth, potentially affecting U.S. markets through interconnected global trade and investment channels.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Wednesday, March 12:
📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) 📈:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation.
Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month
Previous: +0.3% month-over-month
📅 Thursday, March 13:
🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET) 🏭:The PPI reflects the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends.
Forecast: +0.1% month-over-month
Previous: +0.2% month-over-month
📅 Friday, March 14:
🛒 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:This index measures consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power, providing insights into consumer sentiment.
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 96.4
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 7, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, March 7:
👷♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷♂️:
Forecast: +133K jobs
Previous: +150K jobs
This report indicates the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector, and is a key indicator of employment trends.
📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈:
Forecast: 4.0%
Previous: 4.0%
This metric represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵:
Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month
Previous: +0.2% month-over-month
This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 5, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇨🇳📉 China's Manufacturing Activity Contracts 📉: China's official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in February, down from 50.1 in January, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity for the second consecutive month. This downturn raises concerns about global economic growth and could impact markets worldwide.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Wednesday, March 5:
📄 ADP National Employment Report (8:15 AM ET) 📄:
Forecast: +160K jobs
Previous: +183K jobs
This report provides a monthly snapshot of private-sector employment, offering insights into labor market trends ahead of the official government employment data.
🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢:
Forecast: 53.0
Previous: 52.8
This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 🏭:
Forecast: -0.5%
Previous: +1.2%
This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.28.2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 PCE Inflation Data Release 📈: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is set to be released. Economists predict a 0.3% rise in January and a 2.5% year-over-year growth. This data will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇺🇸🛒 Consumer Spending Trends 🛒: Personal income and spending data for January will be released, offering a glimpse into consumer behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.1% rise in personal spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, Feb 28:
💰 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💰: Reports on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE Price Index for January.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity, providing insights into the real estate market's health.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.26.2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸🤔 U.S. Consumer Confidence Dives 🤔: American consumer confidence fell to 98.3 in February (down from 105.3 in January), The steepest one-month drop since 2021.
🇩🇪📉 German GDP Contracts 📉: Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2% in Q4 2024 (quarter-on-quarter), confirming a downturn in Europe’s largest economy. Recession concerns in the Eurozone could influence global growth sentiment as exports and industry show signs of weakness.
🇺🇸💱 Fed Rate Cut Bets Trimmed 💱: Markets are now pricing in only one 25bps rate reduction in 2025 (versus two previously expected),
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Wednesday, Feb 26:
🏠 MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 ET) 🏠: Last week’s applications fell -6.6% amid rising interest rates. Traders will watch if lower demand continues, as higher borrowing costs cool the housing market.
🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 ET) 🏠: Consensus expects around 680K units (vs 698K in December). This Jan report will show if higher mortgage rates are slowing home sales or if housing demand remains resilient to start 2025.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 ET) 🛢️: Last week, inventories rose to about 432.5 million barrels. A larger-than-expected draw could boost oil prices, while a build might ease price pressures (and inflation concerns).
💬 Fed’s Bostic Speaks (12:00 ET) 💬: Markets will monitor his commentary for any hints on monetary policy or growth/inflation views.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico 📈: President Donald Trump has confirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will proceed on March 4, 2025. This decision may impact trade relations and market dynamics.
🇰🇷💰 Bank of Korea Rate Cut 💰: The Bank of Korea is expected to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on February 25, aiming to support economic growth amid recent slowdowns.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, Feb 25:
🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities, offering insights into the housing market trends.
📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.1 from January's 104.1, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Weekly Market Outlook: February 24 – 28, 2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs Implementation 📈: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and lumber products, set to take effect on April 2, 2025. This move aims to protect domestic industries but has raised concerns about potential impacts on global trade relations.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Diplomatic Efforts 🇺🇦🇷🇺: This week marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Key events include French President Emmanuel Macron visiting President Trump in Washington and a virtual G7 meeting to discuss potential resolutions to the ongoing conflict.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, Feb 25:
🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities.
📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.6 from January's 104.1.
📅 Wednesday, Feb 26:
🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Reports the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month. Economists predict a modest decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 homes from December's 698,000.
📅 Thursday, Feb 27:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly report on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits.
📊 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📊: Revised estimate of the nation's economic growth for Q4 2024. The initial reading showed a 2.3% annual growth rate, slightly below expectations.
🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️: Indicates new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods.
📅 Friday, Feb 28:
💰 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💰: The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
💳 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💳: Reports changes in personal income and spending.
🏠 Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Weekly Economic Events & Data Releases: Feb 10 – 14, 2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
Monday, Feb 10: 🇨🇳📈 China's Retaliatory Tariffs – In response to the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports effective Feb 4, China has enacted tariffs of 15% on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on crude oil and agricultural machinery, effective today.
Tuesday, Feb 11 & Wednesday, Feb 12: 🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies – Insights into economic outlook and monetary policy.
📊 Key Data Releases:
Wednesday, Feb 12:
🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM.
💵 Real Earnings: Forecast: -0.1% MoM; Previous: -0.1% MoM.
Thursday, Feb 13:
🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 219K; Previous: 219K.
Friday, Feb 14:
🛍️ Retail Sales: Forecast: -0.1% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM.
🌐 Import Price Index: Forecast: +0.5% MoM; Previous: +0.1% MoM.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.31.2025🔮
📅 Fri Jan 31
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.1%)
📊 Employment Cost Index q/q: 0.9% (prev: 0.8%)
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding a little, then chopping down into EEZ. Watch for resistance in the Hedge Pressure Zone before any reversal.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Slight move higher from earnings, then drop lower into 6055. Expect some chop and potential liquidity sweeps before continuation.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Consolidate lower into the Hedge Cushion Zone, then pump back higher. A strong bounce is likely if price interacts with the Weekly Hedge Cushion and liquidity builds up.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Nifty bankNiftybank even after opening gapdown tries to sustain itself in green and closed above yesterday's closing price. As per our last post we have continued to put our view for upside in BANKNIFTY. (Resistance of 41000 is yet to reach)
Some noticing points that I want to clarify are:
Nifty bank is consolidating in a fix range which after its range breakout will give a sharp movement to any of the sides.
For Short term trade (weekly options) support is 40050/39800/39550 if it goes downward direction.
If this consolidation phase continues then we can put our resistance at or near 41000-41350; while support could be set above 39850. (For swing opportunity)
Thanks.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purpose only. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
Boost my post if you like.
Outlook through Friday jan 6 - 1 day - SPYThis is more about momentum than exact numbers over the next 2 days.
Tomorrow, the jobless claims and Job Cuts reports come out at 8:30am. Typically this doesn't matter but in the current economic situation we should be seeing some volatility early before market open. I am expecting a slightly positive report because they have been becoming more positive, although shy of targets. The market may pop for the first couple of hours before dying down. People will be selling off tomorrow for the incoming report on Friday.
Before the market opens on Friday the US Employment Situation report comes out. I think this could trigger a bigger sell off because I think the US employment situation is still strong. The FED doesn't have the unemployment where they want it signaling they will probably have to keep raising interest rates.
Feedback is appreciated! Not financial advice