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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 U.S. Private Payrolls Surround Weakness The ADP report showed a drop of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, the first decline in over two years, reflecting businesses holding back hiring amid trade uncertainty. However, layoffs remain low, signaling no acute stress yet 📊 Markets Braced for NFP Caution Markets are wary ahead of this morning’s Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) release—currently projected at +115,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment—based on indications of labor-market cooling from weak ADP numbers 💵 Canadian Dollar Strengthens The loonie jumped 0.4% as investors adjust expectations for broader central-bank dovishness, driven by the weak U.S. jobs signals and optimism over a revived U.S.–Canada trade dialogue 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, July 3: 8:30 AM ET – Non‑Farm Payrolls (June): Forecast: +115,000; Previous: +139,000 (May). Watching for signs of sustained job-growth slowdown. 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May. A rise may increase odds of rate cuts. 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Forecast: +0.3%; prior: +0.4%. Cooling wages would ease inflation pressures. 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Track week-to-week stability or worsening of labor-market conditions. 9:45 AM ET – Services PMI (June, flash): Monitor for signs of slowing in U.S. service-sector activity. 10:00 AM ET – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June, flash): Forecast: 50.8. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in services. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #labor #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Remains Under Pressure The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May—still in contraction territory. Tariff-induced uncertainty and rising input costs continue to weigh on factory activity, with new orders still weak and employment contracting 📈 Global Factory Rebound Led by India & Europe While U.S. factories struggle, India hit a 14-month high in its manufacturing PMI at 58.4, and euro‑zone factory orders stabilized at 49.5—the first sign of recovery in over three years. Asia-Europe divergence may shift global capital flows . 🏦 Powell Says Tariffs Are Delaying Rate Cuts Fed Chair Powell warned at the ECB forum in Sintra that elevated inflation—driven in part by Trump-era tariffs—has postponed the timeline for U.S. rate cuts. The Fed’s dot-plot now indicates only two cuts for 2025, with markets adjusting accordingly 💵 Dollar Nears 3½-Year Lows The U.S. dollar weakened further, trading near a three-and-a-half-year low amid soft PMI data, a dovish Fed tilt, and renewed optimism over U.S.–Canada trade talks 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 2: (No major scheduled U.S. economic data) Market focus shifts to upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3, Powell's remarks, and trade-talk headlines. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #manufacturing #Fed #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Core Inflation Edges Higher May’s core inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.6%, casting uncertainty over the Fed’s timeline for rate cuts. While headline CPI sits at 2.3%, the resilience in underlying prices complicates policymakers’ projections for later this year 💵 Weak Dollar, Rising Rate-Cut Bets Markets are reacting to “summertime data”—like the core CPI uptick—with renewed optimism. Traders now see up to 75 bps in Fed rate cuts later this year, while the dollar remains near 3½-year lows on concerns about Powell’s independence and trade developments 🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Resume Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada restarted today, following Ottawa’s suspension of its digital-services tax. Progress toward a broader agreement could reduce tariff risk and offer further relief to risk assets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 1: All Day – U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Markets will watch for updates on tariff resolution and broader trade deals. Any breakthrough could notably boost equities and improve trade sentiment. 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) A below-50 reading again would reinforce the narrative of industrial weakness. A rebound could support equities and temper recession concerns 10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (May) Still at elevated levels (~7.39 million in April), this metric assesses labor-market resilience. A decline could shift rate-cut expectations. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 US Stocks Rally to Record Highs Following a volatile first half, U.S. equities surged into record territory in late June on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, cooling inflation data, and the 90-day tariff pause 💵 Dollar Weakens on Fed and Trade Uncertainty The U.S. dollar fell to a 3½-year low, pressured by persistent speculations over President Trump replacing Fed Chair Powell and extending rate-cut expectations, as well as progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks 🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Lift Sentiment Canada temporarily repealed its digital services tax to facilitate talks seeking a broader trade agreement by July 21, boosting U.S. equity futures 🛢️ Oil Prices Stabilize After spiking on geopolitical fears, oil traders settled between $65–78/bbl amid supply relief following ceasefire developments and easing Middle East risks ⚠️ July Risks Loom The coming week will spotlight: July 4 deadline for Trump’s tax bill Expiry of the tariff pause on July 9 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3 Each poses potential for increased volatility if outcomes disappoint 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 30 9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI (June): Gauge of Midwestern factory activity 📅 Tuesday, July 1 U.S. markets open, watch trade developments 📅 Wednesday, July 2 Global PMI readings released 📅 Thursday, July 3 (Early close ahead of Independence Day) 8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (June) 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (June) 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (June) These labor metrics will be critical for Fed rate outlooking ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #oil #trade #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Global Markets Bet on Dovish Fed Pivot Markets are pricing in more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—approximately 125 bps by end-2026—due to speculation that President Trump may replace Chair Powell with a dovish successor. Investors caution excessive political influence could jeopardize Fed independence 🏦 Fed Governor Warns of Tariff Risks Fed’s Michael Barr emphasized that tariffs could trigger inflation and unemployment, reinforcing the Fed’s wait‑and‑see approach. Expect modest rate cuts later this year, contingent on economic signals 📉 Q1 GDP Revised Sharply Lower First-quarter U.S. GDP was downgraded to an annualized contraction of 0.5%, a deeper fall than previously reported. The revision underscores drag from weak consumer spending and trade disruptions 📃 Trade Deficit Widens in May U.S. goods trade deficit expanded 11% to $96.6 billion, driven by a $9.7 billion drop in exports. Trade gap dynamics remain a headwind for growth projections 🐘 JPMorgan Sees Stagflation Risks JPMorgan revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast down to 1.3%, warning that tariff-related “stagflationary impulse” is complicating growth and inflation outlooks—and making recession risks more real 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 27: 8:30 AM ET – U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – June (Prelim.) Expected to reflect growing economic caution. The index fell in May; traders will watch for further weakness. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Stress Test Results Fed to release annual bank stress-test outcomes. Strong results support financial stability, while weak spots could unsettle markets ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #macro #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Mounts Decline on Fed Credibility Concerns The U.S. dollar dropped to a 3½-year low against the euro after reports that President Trump is considering replacing Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. The move fueled market concern about the Fed’s independence and prompted traders to raise the likelihood of a July rate cut to 25%, with nearly 64 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end 📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of Powell’s Testimony Traders remain on edge as Fed Chair Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony continues. He reiterated caution, noting inflation risks tied to tariffs despite growing calls for easing, keeping interest-rate expectations in limbo . 📈 S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs in Second-Biggest Bi‑Monthly Rally The S&P 500 has notched its second-largest May–June rally on record (6.2% in May, further gains in June), bolstered by cooling inflation, easing Middle East tensions, and strong AI earnings momentum led by Nvidia. Bull-case scenarios could push the index to fresh highs 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 26: (No major U.S. economic release—markets are focused on Powell’s remaining testimony and global risk dynamics.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #geopolitics #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Slides on Middle East Ceasefire Optimism A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran lifted risk sentiment across global markets. The U.S. dollar weakened, while the euro and British pound hovered near multi‑year highs 📈 Equities Near Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed toward all-time highs on June 25, supported by the Middle East truce and retreating energy prices. The S&P 500 rallied ~1.1%, with tech and discretionary sectors leading the charge 🛢 Oil & Treasuries Dip, Yield Cuts Anticipated Oil plunged ~6% to ~$65/bbl as conflict fears eased. Softer prices plus weak consumer confidence spurred expectations of up to 60 bps in Fed rate cuts by December; Treasury yields pulled back accordingly 📉 Consumer Confidence Falls Again The Conference Board’s index dropped to 93—the lowest level since May 2020—as concerns over tariffs and job availability weighed on households 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, June 25: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets remain focused on geopolitical dynamics, Fed commentary, and next week’s PCE inflation release. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #inflation #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance 🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds 💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 24: 10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June) Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment 🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction 📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses 🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile ⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 23 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June) 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May) 📅 Tuesday, June 24 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June) Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress 📅 Wednesday, June 25 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May) 📅 Thursday, June 26 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate) 📅 Friday, June 27 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Tariffs Fed kept interest rates steady on June 19, cautioning that tariffs could stoke inflation and slow growth. Inflation projections were raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while growth estimates were revised lower to 1.4% 🌍 Middle East Risk Drags Markets Global stocks fell and safe-haven assets surged after U.S. futures weakened amid heightened tensions in the Israel–Iran conflict. Yields were mixed: gold weakened and bonds gained, while oil held steady near seven-week highs 📈 Treasury Yields Edge Higher Despite safe-haven demand, U.S. 10‑year yields ticked up as markets absorbed the Fed’s updated rate outlook. The yield curve remains elevated ahead of next week’s $38 bn auction of long-dated notes 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 20: (No major U.S. economic reports) Markets will be driven by Fed commentary follow-ups and geopolitical headlines over the weekend. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #fixedincome #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💼 Business Inventories Flat in April U.S. business inventories held steady in April, indicating stable consumer and wholesale demand. That suggests production won't need to cut sharply in the near term, supporting GDP outlook 🏭 Industrial Production Slips Industrial output declined 0.2% in May, signaling ongoing weakness in factory activity amid less favorable global trade conditions . 🌐 Geopolitical Pressures Persist Heightened tension in the Middle East continues to pressure risk assets. Investors remain focused on safe-haven flows into gold, Treasuries, and defensive equities, with analysts noting the risk backdrop remains tilted to the downside 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, June 18: 8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May) Measures new residential construction — leading indication of housing sector health. 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims Tracks the weekly count of new unemployment filings — useful for spotting early labor-market weakening. 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady. Market focus will be on any commentary that hints at future tightening or easing plans. 2:30 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference Investors will parse Powell’s remarks for guidance on rate paths, inflation trends, and economic risks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #housing #Fed #geo_risk #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 U.S. Retail Spending Holds Firm May’s retail sales were flat month-over-month, defying expectations of a slowdown. Core retail sales (ex-autos) edged up +0.2%, signaling resilience in consumer purchases—an encouraging sign for economic momentum 🤖 Tesla’s Robotaxi Buzz Accelerates Tesla stock surged after a weekend robotaxi video surfaced ahead of its planned Austin launch. A viral clip showed a Model Y “robotaxi” navigating traffic autonomously, sparking fresh investor enthusiasm despite safety debates 📊 BoJ Holds Rates; Dollar Edges Higher Japan’s central bank left policy unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining its dovish bias. This lifted the dollar slightly versus the yen, drawing focus to global interest-rate divergence 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 17: 8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May) Consumer purchases are tracked, excluding autos. Monitor if activity stays steady despite inflation and rate pressures. 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (May) Provides insight into factory activity and plant usage—a gauge of economic health amid global slowdown concerns. 10:00 AM ET – Business Inventories (April) Shows stock levels held by wholesalers and manufacturers. Higher inventories with weaker sales may signal slowing demand. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Powell Expresses Caution The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50%, though Chair Powell likely won’t provide fresh guidance. Markets see limited upside without stronger inflation or growth cues 💱 Dollar Strengthens on Geopolitical Risk The U.S. dollar rose slightly as investors flocked to safe assets amid global tensions with Iran. Treasury yields eased slightly on risk-off flows 🛢️ Oil Near Multi-Week Highs on Mideast & OPEC Dynamics Oil held near seven-week highs (~$67–70/barrel), buoyed by Iran-Israel tensions and OPEC+ output hikes (411K bpd added from May–July), offset by demand concerns . ⚠️ G7 Summit Faces Heightened Stakes G7 finance ministers meet in Canada under pressure from Middle East escalation. Watch for policy coordination and commentary on trade, inflation, and global economic risks . 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 16 Regular markets open after Juneteenth holiday Quiet day; oil & geopolitical headlines dominate 📅 Tuesday, June 17 8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May): Signals consumer spending strength/duration 8:30 AM ET – CPI (May): Confirms inflation trend post-CPI cooler reading 10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May): Gauges housing market demand Unexpected Tesla Robotaxi Demo (Austin): Watch for surprise developments this week 📅 Wednesday, June 18 Global Central Bank Day: FOMC, BoE, BoJ policy updates; U.S. Fed will most likely hold steady 📅 Thursday, June 19 – Juneteenth Holiday – U.S. markets closed 📅 Friday, June 20 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (May): Measures U.S. housing activity 10:00 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (May): Early snapshot of economic momentum ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🚨 Israel Strikes Iran — U.S. Markets Sell Off Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets. U.S. stock futures slid over 1%, driven by a drop in equities and a surge in safe-haven assets 🛢️ Oil Prices Surge 7–8% on Supply Fears Brent crude jumped over 7%, reaching ~$74.65/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 8%—the strongest move since early May. The sudden energy-price spike reflects heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East 💱 Dollar & Safe Havens Climb True to form, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and Treasuries rallied as investors moved to the safety of low-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 13 (No scheduled U.S. economic data) Data flow will take a backseat as markets digest geopolitical developments and await the weekend. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #geopolitics #oil #safety #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Slides on Trade Truce Hopes & Fed Outlook The U.S. dollar dropped 0.4%—its lowest level since April 22—after President Trump signaled flexibility on a July 8 trade deadline and U.S.–China talks showed renewed progress, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts 📊 S&P Shiller CAPE Hints at Overvaluation Risk Stocks and bonds rallied following rebound, but valuation metrics flash caution: the S&P 500 now sits in the 94th percentile of Shiller CAPE, and equity risk premium has dropped to zero. Analysts warn these levels often precede corrections 🛢️ Oil Holds at Seven-Week Highs Oil prices remain near seven-week highs (~$66–67/barrel), supported by gradual OPEC+ output increases and hopes that easing trade tensions will aid demand 📈 CPI Cools Again, Bonds Climb U.S. consumer inflation rose just 0.1% in May (2.4% YoY), easing expectations for tighter Fed policy. Consequently, Treasury yields softened and bond markets outperformed equities 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 12: 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May) An early gauge of inflation at the wholesale level—may reinforce the cooling trend seen in CPI. 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims Weekly updates on unemployment filings. Key to monitor for labor-market tightening or softening. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only—it does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🤝 Cautious Optimism on U.S.–China Trade Progress Markets responded positively to fresh developments in ongoing U.S.–China trade talks, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing ~0.6% higher — the third straight day of gains — on hopes of easing trade barriers 📉 Treasury Yields Climb as Auction Approaches Bond investors grew cautious ahead of a key Treasury debt auction and incoming U.S. inflation data. The 10-year yield stayed elevated, weighing modestly on equities . 💹 Global Markets Showing Resilience Asian and European markets tracked U.S. gains midweek, driven by trade-talk optimism, despite lingering concerns over slower global growth and debt levels . 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, June 11: (No major U.S. releases — focus remains on market reactions to trade talks and Treasury auctions.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📱 Apple Disappoints at WWDC Keynote Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) faced criticism after a lackluster WWDC keynote. Major AI and Siri upgrades were delayed, prompting a 1–1.5% drop in Apple shares—the weakest move during today's presentation 🎮 GameStop to Report Q1, Crypto Pivot in Focus GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings after market close. Investors will be watching for updates on its $500M Bitcoin allocation and potential crypto-related strategies 📈 Small-Business Optimism Rises The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May came in at 95.9—above the 94.9 consensus—showing modest improvement in sentiment among small firms 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 10: 6:00 AM ET – NFIB Small Business Optimism (May): A reading above expectations could boost risk market sentiment by showing stronger Main Street confidence. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 9–13, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 9–13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📱 Apple WWDC & Tech Momentum Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference kicks off Monday with CEO Tim Cook set to discuss new products, services, and likely AI initiatives—tracks should watch include impacts on NASDAQ:AAPL and AI-related stocks 🧨 GameStop Eyed for Crypto Pivot GameStop (a meme-stock darling) reports earnings Tuesday. Markets are watching for updates on its $500M bitcoin investment and potential pivot toward crypto-driven revenue streams 🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks in London High-level trade dialogue begins Monday between U.S. and Chinese representatives in London, offering possible relief to trade tensions and providing a lift to risk assets 📉 Key Inflation Data Midweek Wednesday brings the May CPI release—crucial for assessing tariff-driven inflation trends and likely to influence Fed policy outlook ahead of next month’s meeting 💹 Oil Markets React to Trade Uncertainty Oil prices are stable to slightly up ahead of trade talks, as Brent holds around $66/barrel—reflecting balanced supply concerns and hopes for easing global tensions 🌐 G7 Summit and Global Policy Risks G7 finance ministers convene in Canada (50th anniversary), tackling trade strains, Russia–Ukraine, and inflation. Global macrospoilers could trigger renewed volatility 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 9 Apple WWDC begins (CEO keynote) U.S.–China trade talks start in London 📅 Tuesday, June 10 GameStop Q2 earnings (+ bitcoin update) NFIB Small Business Index (6:00 AM ET) 📅 Wednesday, June 11 8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (May) Watch for inflation signal from tariffs. 8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (May) Core inflation trend under scrutiny. 📅 Thursday, June 12 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May) Early check on wholesale inflation 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims 📅 Friday, June 13 10:00 AM ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June, preliminary) Consumer mood and tariff impact insights ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for informational/educational purposes only. Not financial advice. See a licensed advisor before making investing decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market in Focus Investors are closely watching the upcoming May employment report, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.2%. These figures will provide insights into the labor market's response to recent economic pressures, including tariff impacts . 🇮🇳 RBI Expected to Cut Rates Amid Low Inflation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate on June 6, marking the third consecutive reduction. This move aims to support economic growth amid persistent low inflation and global uncertainties . 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 6: 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Employment Report (May): Analysts expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 125,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. These figures will be critical in assessing the health of the labor market and potential Federal Reserve policy actions . 3:00 PM ET – U.S. Consumer Credit (April): The Federal Reserve will release data on consumer credit, with forecasts predicting an increase of $10 billion. This report will shed light on consumer borrowing trends and financial health . ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 5, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings Surprise to Upside U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.39 million in April—well above forecasts—indicating that labor demand remains robust despite macro headwinds and trade-policy uncertainty 🛢️ OPEC+ Greenlights July Supply Increase OPEC+ agreed to boost production by 411 K barrels per day starting in July, adding downward pressure to oil prices and weighing on energy equities 📈 Fed’s John Williams Signals Patience New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that the Fed sees no urgency to cut rates, citing mixed inflation signals and a balanced labor market—keeping investors cautious on rate-cut timing 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 5: 8:30 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (April) Measures total U.S. job vacancies, a leading indicator of labor-market strength. 10:00 AM ET – OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting) Details on production quotas for July, guiding energy market supply expectations. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 4, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 4, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🌐 Markets Rally on Chinese PMI Surprise China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to 50.8 in May, signaling expansion in smaller export-focused factories. Asian markets jumped, lifting U.S. equity futures as investors recalibrated global growth expectations . 📉 U.S. Factory Orders Remain Soft April’s U.S. Factory Orders fell 0.4%, underscoring persistent weakness in industrial demand amid elevated input costs and trade uncertainty. Declines in durable-goods orders weighed on industrial stocks . 🏦 Fed’s Bowman to Speak on Economic Outlook Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to deliver remarks at 2:00 PM ET, likely emphasizing caution on future rate moves given mixed data. Markets will watch for any shifts in tone regarding inflation risks and labor-market resilience . 🛢️ Oil Prices Slip on Rising U.S. Inventories U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, according to API data, pressuring oil prices lower and dragging energy shares down as supply concerns outweighed strong demand signals . 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, June 4: 2:00 PM ET – Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks Remarks on economic outlook and monetary policy, watched for any hints on the Fed’s next moves. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Persists U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with new orders, backlogs, production, and employment all declining. Trade-war disruptions and elevated input costs continue to squeeze factory margins, setting the stage for today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release 🌐 Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Stocks Renewed U.S.–China tariff threats sent the S&P 500 lower overnight, as investors fear higher costs for exporters and slower global growth. Futures pointed to another rough open for $SPY/ SP:SPX 📈 China Caixin PMI Exceeds Expectations China’s May Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.8, signaling stabilization in export-oriented factories despite ongoing trade uncertainty. That positive surprise may offer some support to Asian equities today 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 3: 8:30 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Today’s survey will confirm if the May downturn persists. 10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending (April) Tracks monthly change in total construction outlays—an important gauge of housing and infrastructure investment trends. 1:00 PM ET – 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that influences the yield curve. Weak demand or higher yields here can pressure equities, especially growth-oriented sectors. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Ahead of June PMI Markets are bracing for Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (June 3), with economists forecasting a reading below 50.0, signaling continued factory contraction amid slowing global demand and lingering tariff uncertainty. 🛢️ OPEC+ Meeting to Determine Output Path On Thursday, OPEC+ convenes to decide production levels for July. Expectations center on a modest output cut extension to support prices, with Brent crude trading near $65/bbl ahead of the decision. 💻 Tech Stocks Eye Semiconductor Legislation Investors are monitoring Congress’s debate over the Chips Act extension. Senate committee hearings this week could accelerate funding for U.S. chip manufacturing—an upside catalyst for NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , and $MU. 🌐 China’s Caixin PMI Signals Pivot China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June 6) is expected to edge above 50.0, indicating a stabilization in smaller export-focused factories. A better-than-expected print could lift global risk sentiment. 🏢 Fed Officials Remain Dovish Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams speak this week, reiterating that rate hikes are “on pause.” Their remarks should clarify the Fed’s view on inflation cooling and potential rate cuts late 2025. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, June 2: 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April) Tracks dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods—an early gauge of industrial demand. 📅 Tuesday, June 3: 8:30 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. 10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending (April) Reports monthly change in total construction outlays—key for housing and infrastructure trends. 1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that can shift yield curve and influence $SPY/ SP:SPX positioning. 📅 Wednesday, June 4: 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April) Dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods. (Repeat for emphasis on industrial slowdown.) 2:00 PM ET: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks Comments on inflation and monetary policy outlook. 📅 Thursday, June 5: 8:30 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (April) Tracks number of unfilled positions—a barometer of labor-market tightness. 10:00 AM ET: OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting) Details on production quotas—critical for energy-sector flow. 📅 Friday, June 6: 8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (May) Monthly change in U.S. employment—core for Fed policy outlook. 8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (May) Percentage of labor force unemployed—key gauge of labor-market health. 8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings (May) Tracks wage trends—important for consumer spending and inflation. 10:00 AM ET: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May, preliminary) Measures health of China’s smaller export-oriented factories. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao