Aug 25Overview: The FRED:SP500 closed Monday with a red candle, erasing last week’s Friday gains. Durable goods orders were reported today, showing the highest increase since July 2020. This indicator reflects the amount of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods expected to last at least three years, such as automobiles, appliances, electronics, and machinery. An increase in durable goods orders typically signals business confidence and a willingness to invest in long-term assets. However, this rise was driven mainly by automobile purchases; excluding cars, the figure was down 0.2%.
Global liquidity has been increasing for the past 60 days. The last time we saw such a sustained rise was from the end of October 2023 to mid-January 2024, which marked the start of the current bull market. This is a bullish signal.
W: The BINANCE:BTCUSD price has reached the lower bound of the current range, 63k-64k.
D: Monday closed with a red candle. The lack of a lower wick is concerning, suggesting that bears pushed the price down throughout the day without giving bulls a chance to buy back. It closed slightly below the W level of 63k, at 62.8k.
4h: The price is at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands (BB). A rebound is needed, but it’s not happening yet. The price is trading below the W level. While this isn’t a significant issue for the W candle, it’s crucial for the 4h to stay above 63.1k.
1h: The RSI has touched the oversold level of 30. This is a bullish signal.
Alts Relative to BTC: There’s no significant divergence. Some altcoins corrected less ( BINANCE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:NEARUSD ) while others corrected more ( BINANCE:SUIUSD , BINANCE:FTMUSD ), but in the early hours of Tuesday, almost all have recovered to their highs after the recent pump.
Bull Case: This isn’t a bull trap, and we’ll see a climb on low trading volume. Whales might hold on, waiting for interest rate cuts, or they could start selling just before the cuts.
Bear Case: This is a bull trap unfolding, with fewer bulls willing to hold this price level.
Fear and Greed Index: 53.61. This is a 'no trade' zone if you prefer to buy low and sell high with the highest conviction.
Prediction: Undecided.
Opportunities:
BINANCE:AAVEUSD : At W level $128. Bullish.
BINANCE:MKRUSD and BINANCE:UNIUSD : Both are holding strong W levels that predate BTC ETF demand. Bullish.
BINANCE:TAOUSD : Drawing a MACD divergence on D and 1h, with the W level of $361 being rejected for the third time. Bearish.
TON
NOT / NOTCOIN🔍 NOT/USDT Analysis: 1-Hour Timeframe 📉
The NOT/USDT chart on a 1-hour timeframe indicates important upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. It’s crucial to consider these signals alongside higher timeframes for a more comprehensive market analysis.
• August 27, 2024, 05:00, and September 2, 2024, 00:00 - Green Lines: These times suggest potential local lows. Traders may find favorable conditions to accumulate NOT or consider entering long positions.
When working within this 1-hour timeframe, remember that these movements should be evaluated with a global perspective, incorporating insights from higher timeframes to better understand the overall market trend.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
TONUSDTHere’s a sample analysis text for the TON/USDT pair based on the 1-hour timeframe chart you provided:
🔍 TON/USDT Analysis: 1-Hour Timeframe 📉
The TON/USDT chart on a 1-hour timeframe indicates key upcoming dates where price movements may provide trading opportunities. It’s essential to align these signals with higher timeframes for a holistic view of the market.
• August 26, 2024, 21:00, August 28, 2024, 21:00 - Green Lines: These times suggest potential local lows. These moments might offer favorable conditions for accumulating TON or entering long positions.
When dealing with this 1-hour timeframe, remember that these movements should be analyzed within the context of higher timeframes to gain a comprehensive understanding of the overall market trend.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
TON - TONS of COINS MOVING!!!Why not try to bet on things with strength?
This one still keeping the trend intact. Many have been acted strongly like NYSE:FET LSE:ONDO $RUNE. Worth to try this one out.
Had two bearish retest at $7 with no real follow through. Still staying above $6.4.
Time to go long and wait what the weekend can bring us.
Aug 24Overview:
As we begin the last week of August, we might be heading into a very turbulent period. On one hand, BINANCE:BTCUSD hasn't even broken its previous bull run's all-time high when adjusted for inflation. Neither the halving nor ETF demand was enough to push crypto higher, and now we have some altcoins like BINANCE:AVAXUSD trading 30% below their January 11th BTC ETF levels. On the other hand, the FED is finally planning to cut rates on September 18th, which could potentially loosen the printing press. Remember when it was going "BRRRR"? Well, it technically never stopped—just in the form of government spending. Unfortunately, that windfall doesn’t seem to reach speculative assets.
Congratulations on last week’s gains, with some coins such as COINBASE:ARBUSD , BINANCE:MATICUSD and BINANCE:AVAXUSD posting +30% gains. If you bought the dip, this is a great moment to take some profits, or at least move your SL higher.
This Sunday was the first in four weeks that didn't post a red candle, as we noted in a previous letter. But it wasn’t very green either, closing with a 0.11% doji. The red candle was merely postponed to Monday morning.
The U.S. Employment Report on Friday, September 7 at 8:30 am is crucial because it will provide key insights into how the recent interest rate hikes are affecting the labor market, particularly regarding rising unemployment and jobless claims. As the Federal Reserve continues its tightening policy, this report could signal whether the economy is heading toward a slowdown, which would influence future monetary policy decisions.
Quick note regarding BINANCE:TONUSD On August 20th, we mentioned that it "finished drawing its 'Motive' part of Elliott's wave pattern. In about 40 hours, it might finish drawing the B wave, presenting a short opportunity that will last throughout the C wave down." Unfortunately, the market witnessed the C wave not because of Elliott's wave but due to Pavel Durov being arrested by French police the moment his plane landed. TON crashed that day by 18.40%. Although Pavel isn’t the founder of TON, he is closely affiliated with it.
W: Reached BB MA. If bulls can hold the $63.1k level, there’s a chance for a 4th wave to $70k.
D: Held the important bullish W level of $64k. It’s better to have that buffer between $63k and $ 64k for bulls to regroup and go on the offense again. Currently at the upper bound of BB. If the next W level of $63.1k doesn’t hold and it corrects to BB MA, it will hit the D level of $61.8k.
4h: Losing the $ 64k level early Monday morning in the U.S.
1h: MACD divergence yesterday, on the 25th at 8 pm NYC time. We are now seeing the result of that divergence.
Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins didn’t hold as well as BTC over the weekend, correcting from the heights of the pump: BINANCE:UNIUSD 10% BINANCE:SUIUSD 9.56% BINANCE:NEARUSD 8.25%
Bull Case: BTC holds W levels and continues pumping with new strength toward $68.2k.
Bear Case: This was a classic bull trap—one last breath, one last wave, one last pump before a free fall toward $52.2k.
Fear and Greed Index: 56.2. We’ve been bouncing in the Neutral zone since May 19th with occasional and insignificant peaks into the Greed territory. However, even this chart has been drawing lower highs and lower lows.
Prediction: BINANCE:BTCUSD corrects to $61.7k
Opportunities, at W, 4h Divergences of Major Alts:
Since BINANCE:NEARUSD broke through its W resistance of $4.38 during the recent pump, it’s very likely to return to that level, which should at least become new support. This presents an 8.62% short opportunity.
BINANCE:SUIUSD has drawn a MACD bearish divergence on the D timeframe and has also just hit its W resistance level of $1. TP at $0.85, which is 10.00% away.
BINANCE:TAOUSD reached its upper W resistance. Correction to D level $304 could produce a 12.51% return.
BINANCE:FTMUSD is at its resistance level. There’s an opportunity to make 17% by shorting to its next W level of $0.40.
Telegram Faces Challenges Amid Pavel Durov’s ArrestThe recent arrest of Pavel Durov, co-founder and CEO of Telegram, has sparked a wave of controversy and speculation across the tech and crypto communities. The arrest in Paris, reportedly linked to allegations of platform abuse, has led to a resurgence of an old hoax claiming Apple might remove Telegram from the App Store. This has caused significant fluctuations in the value of Toncoin ( CRYPTOCAP:TON ), the cryptocurrency associated with Telegram’s blockchain.
Apple's Stance and the Hoax Debunked
Rumors of Apple removing Telegram have been circulating, fueled by the recent arrest of Pavel Durov. However, these rumors are baseless. Apple has officially stated that it has no plans to remove the Telegram app, debunking the latest wave of misinformation. Social media and X Community Notes have clarified that these posts echo a similar hoax from 2021.
Telegram’s Defense and Community Response
Telegram has responded robustly, asserting that it abides by all EU regulations and condemning the allegations against Durov as unfounded. The company emphasizes that Durov's arrest has been met with strong backlash, not just from the public but also from industry leaders and celebrities. Prominent figures such as Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Andrew Tate have voiced their support for Durov, criticizing what they see as an attack on freedom of speech and privacy.
Impact on Toncoin ( CRYPTOCAP:TON ) and Market Movements
The arrest has had a notable impact on Toncoin ( CRYPTOCAP:TON ), which saw a sharp 20% drop in price following the news. As of now, TON is trading at $5.64, slightly recovering from its low. This price volatility reflects the uncertainty and reaction within the crypto market. Meanwhile, Resistance Dog (REDO), a cryptocurrency associated with the Digital Resistance campaign to support Durov, has surged by 160%, highlighting a strong community-driven response.
Technical Aspects and Market Sentiment
The current technical landscape for Toncoin ( CRYPTOCAP:TON ) shows a significant drop in trading volume alongside the price decline. Despite this, the slight rebound indicates some resilience in the market. The broader crypto community's support for Durov, including notable figures pledging funds for his legal defense, underscores the high stakes involved. The market sentiment is closely tied to the ongoing campaign to #FreeDurov and the broader implications for privacy and censorship in the digital age.
Industry Leaders Rally for Support
The #FreeDurov campaign has gained momentum, with substantial backing from the tech industry and cryptocurrency community. Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have been vocal supporters, emphasizing the importance of protecting free speech and criticizing the perceived overreach by authorities. Additionally, Justin Sun and Memeland have committed significant resources to support Durov’s legal battle, further highlighting the strong ties between the Telegram and DeFi communities.
Conclusion
Pavel Durov’s arrest has not only triggered a wave of support but also brought to light the challenges facing Telegram and Toncoin ( CRYPTOCAP:TON ). As the situation unfolds, the response from industry leaders and the crypto community will be crucial in shaping the future of both Telegram and its associated cryptocurrency. The developments underscore the complex interplay between technology, privacy, and regulation in today's digital landscape.
TON Toncoin the next FTX/ LUNA ?! CEO Pavel Durov Arrested ! If you haven`t bought TON before the brekout:
Now the recent arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency world, particularly concerning the future of TON coin.
Durov's arrest stems from allegations by OFIM, a French national police office, accusing him of complicity in crimes such as drug trafficking, distribution of child sexual abuse material (CSAM), and fraud due to Telegram's lack of moderation.
This development raises serious concerns about TON coin's stability. Investors fear a sharp decline, drawing parallels to the collapses of FTX and LUNA, which suffered massive selloffs following high-profile scandals involving their founders.
With Durov as the face of Telegram and a key figure in the TON ecosystem, his legal troubles could significantly erode confidence in the cryptocurrency.
The arrest could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny of Telegram, potentially causing further issues for TON coin.
In the short term, investors should brace for potential volatility, as the risk of a selloff looms large.
The future of TON coin now hinges on how Durov's legal situation unfolds and whether Telegram can withstand the resulting pressures.
TONUSDT 1H - Impact of Durov's ArrestTONUSDT on the 1-hour chart shows a sharp downward movement, clearly influenced by the arrest of Pavel Durov, founder and CEO of Telegram. The news caused panic among investors, resulting in a massive sell-off of TON, as seen on the chart.
Before the drop, the price of TON was in an accumulation phase, with a strong upward trend, as highlighted in the first accumulation zone. However, the news of Durov's arrest triggered a breakout of this accumulation, causing the price to fall sharply.
After the large sell-off, TON found temporary support at the $5.245 range, where it began a new accumulation period. This accumulation is marked by an attempt by the market to absorb the initial shock and stabilize the price.
The MACD shows negative momentum, but with signs of a possible reversal, indicating that the market may be trying to recover from the sharp drop.
The current accumulation may be a sign that investors are starting to gain confidence again. However, the market is still in a state of uncertainty, and further price movements may depend on more information about Durov's situation and the community's response.
Toncoin hi guys
On the price chart, when we still hold the support area of $4.46, and the LL is not made for us, we cannot expect a bearish trend.
If the $4.46 support range is fully consumed, a bearish scenario is likely.
Right now, the bullish scenario weighs more for us. And if the $7.95 resistance area is completely consumed, the bullish mentality will be reinforced for us.
what do you think!?
TON → there is no risk for toincoin so farhello guys.
Let's analyze OKX:TONUSDT
Top Line Resistance: The chart identifies a rising resistance level (top line) that the price has tested multiple times but failed to break above convincingly. A breakout above this line could signal a bullish move.
Neckline Support: There is a crucial support level (neckline) that has held up the price so far. The analyst suggests that if the price breaks below this neckline, it could trigger a bearish move.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below the neckline, the target for the downside is around the $3.10 level.
This level is marked as the "target of breaking down" and could act as strong support if the price reaches it.
Bullish Scenario:
If the price manages to hold the neckline and breaks above the top line, the chart suggests a potential upward move toward higher levels.
Current Price Action: The price is currently around $5.62, showing a potential retest of the neckline. Traders should watch for a decisive move either below the neckline or above the top line to determine the next major trend direction.
This analysis outlines the importance of the neckline as a critical level. The outcome of whether the price breaks below this level or holds above it will likely dictate the future trend direction.
___________________________
✓✓✓ Always do your research.
❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
NOTcoin chartAnalysis by Amadarz✅
This chart for NOT/USDT suggests a bearish trend that is now consolidating, with a descending trendline. Here's a breakdown of the setup:
1. Current Price : 0.01061 USDT 📉.
2. Trendline Break : The setup is recommending to wait for a break of the descending trendline ⏳ before entering a long position. This is crucial as it would signal a potential trend reversal or bullish continuation 📈.
3. Second Entry : There’s a potential second entry at 0.00912 USDT 🚪, a key level based on previous support.
4. Target Levels 🎯:
- TP1 : 0.01114 USDT 🟢 (minor resistance level).
- TP2 : 0.01229 USDT 🟢 (further resistance).
- TP3 : 0.01435 USDT 🏁 (approaching a significant resistance).
5. Stop-Loss Zones : Recommended stop-loss is between 0.00907 USDT and 0.00857 USDT 🔴, just below the recent major swing low.
Key Observations:
- Risk Management : The stop-loss below 0.00912 ensures solid risk control 🔒, protecting your downside below the recent low.
- Action Plan : If the trendline breaks with strong volume or bullish confirmation 🚀, consider taking profits at the targets in sequence, with TP1 being conservative, and TP3 offering the maximum reward 🎉.
Keep an eye 👀 on the volume and price action around the trendline for confirmation of the breakout!
Honestly, I don't feel like explaining, the chart says it all !!If it closes below the midline this week, price may see the bottom of the channel.
maybe...
✨Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments, We will be glad.
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
NOTUSDT & TON total delistingThe telegram director was arrested in France. Its service will be closed all over the world and crypto projects will be subject to delisting from exchanges as they pose a threat of losses to users. Their price will only go down without knowing the limit. Good luck to everyone and beware of TON-based scam projects.
TON: Important Technical Analysis in a Daily Timeframe!Hello everyone, I’m Cryptorphic.
I’ve been sharing insightful charts and analysis for the past seven years.
Follow me for:
~ Unbiased analyses on trending altcoins.
~ Identifying altcoins with 10x-50x potential.
~ Futures trade setups.
~ Daily updates on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
~ High time frame (HTF) market bottom and top calls.
~ Short-term market movements.
~ Charts supported by critical fundamentals.
Now, let’s dive into this chart analysis:
After the latest news about the founder of Telegram, TONCOIN faced a sharp 20% drop in its price. The price is currently hovering at $5.86, and the recent decline raises concerns among traders and investors.
Here's my technical analysis of TONCOIN on a daily timeframe.
TON has an important support trendline around $5.34, which it must hold to stay in the game. If a rebound occurs, TON will likely test the blue dotted resistance trendline, potentially leading to bullish momentum.
The lower support at $4.636 will be the crucial level for TON to hold if we see a further decline.
Given the negative experiences from past incidents, be cautious and conduct thorough research before investing.
Key Levels:
- Support Trendline: $5.2556 to $5.6458.
- Lower Support: $4.836.
- Primary Resistance: $6.452.
- Bullish Move: A close above the primary resistance and 50 EMA.
- Bearish Move: A close below the lower support.
DYOR, NFA.
Please hit the like button to support my content and share your thoughts in the comment section. Feel free to request any chart analysis you’d like to see!
Thank you!
#TON #Toncoin
#TON/USDT#TON
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 12-hour frame and it was broken upwards
We have a bounce from a major support area in green at 5.40
We have a downtrend RSI that was broken upwards which supports the upside
We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average which supports the upside
Entry price 6.11
First target 6.90
Second target 7.60
Third target 8.20
TON (Toncoin): Approaching ResistanceTrade setup : Trends are mixed but price remains in an Uptrend on a long-term basis. It bounced off of 200-day moving average, which acts as support, and reached our near-term target of $6.75 for +25% gain. Now we look for the right entry opportunity in Uptrend.
We wait for price to either 1) break above $6.75 to signal continuation of uptrend, with +20% upside potential to $8.30 next, or 2) pullback to 200-day MA for another swing entry with +25% upside potential to $6.75. Stop Loss at $4.40. (set a price alert). We also issued a bullish fundamental research report (Coin Pick) on TON recently (May 24) that suggests there's 80% upside based on comparable valuation of other L-1 and L-2 networks.
Pattern : Price is Approaching Resistance , which is a level where it could pause or reverse its recent advance, at least temporarily. Resistance is often a level where price got rejected in the past, or potentially prior Support level that was broken. (concept known as polarity). Once price breaks above resistance, it can advance higher to the next resistance level. Learn to trade key levels in Lesson 7.
Trend : Short-term trend is Up, Medium-term trend is Neutral and Long-term trend is Neutral.
Momentum is Bullish but inflecting. MACD Line is still above MACD Signal Line but momentum may have peaked since MACD Histogram bars are declining, which suggests that momentum could be nearing a downswing. Price is neither overbought nor oversold currently, based on RSI-14 levels (RSI > 30 and RSI < 70).
Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is $6.00, then $4.75. Nearest Resistance Zone is $6.75, then $8.30.
Aug 20Overview:
For the first time in the last six trading days, the S&P 500 closed with a red candle (-0.20%), even though its wick extended higher than the previous trading day. The key macroeconomic event to watch this week is the release of the "Minutes of the Fed's July FOMC meeting" on Wednesday, which will provide insights into the discussions and debates among Federal Reserve officials, revealing their views on the current state of the economy.
Overall, this week might be relatively calm as the market anticipates potential rate cuts, election outcomes, and TradFi executives wrapping up their vacations. For example, much of Western Europe essentially shuts down in August, with many French citizens heading to the south of France, Germans traveling to Turkey, and Italians and Spaniards taking a more relaxed approach to work all year round.
By the way, it's been a while since we’ve seen any major hacks or rug pulls in the crypto space. Imagine running the 15th largest crypto exchange and starting to see diminishing returns as enthusiasm for the current bull run fades. You also notice more consolidation among the top 2-3 CEXs, while DEXs are gaining traction and cutting into your profits. This grim outlook might lead to some troubling thoughts cooking up. Although FTX filed for bankruptcy on November 12th, and BTC at that time dropped by 70%, we still have time to make informed decisions as we sit at the end of August. Remember: not your keys, not your crypto ...cough ...cough Lido...
Alts Relative to BTC:
Alts haven’t diverged much from BTC, but on the 4-hour chart, ETH shows a small MACD divergence between Sunday the 18th and Tuesday the 20th, with SOL showing it even more clearly. This suggests that while BTC remains within its daily range, alts are showing more weakness. Only AR and TAO have shown positive price action in the last two days. We know about the Grayscale news regarding the TAO trust, but what’s driving AR?
In the DeFi sector, AAVE continues to pump.
Bull Case:
We’ve reached the bottom and are now heading upward. Alts are already at their lows, and major institutional investors and governments haven’t even started accumulating the new digital gold. The world’s major economies are relatively healthy, and in 3-4 years, we might look back at 2024 as the bottom and the end of the "COVID economy." More money could flow into risky and alternative assets like crypto.
Bear Case:
Despite the macro outlook, crypto has likely reached its intermediate bull run, driven mainly by ETF demand without any major crypto breakthroughs or new use cases like DeFi. In reality, only a few market participants hadn’t yet entered the crypto space and needed an institutional vehicle like an ETF.
Fear and Greed Index:
45.39. The index has flattened over the last three days, mirroring BTC’s price, indicating neither strong buy nor sell opportunities.
Weekly: Range trading, slowly moving toward the BB MA, which it may reach within the next two weeks (conveniently the last two weeks of August).
Daily: BTC continues to trade within its daily range. It broke above the BB MA, but no significant pump followed. Bulls appear weak and may need more accumulation, a "whale push," or this might not be the time. Was it a fake-out?
4-Hour: Range trading, no divergences.
1-Hour: Range trading, no divergences.
Prediction:
Range trading with a possible spike up to $62k.
Opportunities:
SOL: Shows a bearish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe but could quickly reverse if BTC prints a green candle.
TON: Has completed the "Motive" part of Elliott’s wave pattern. In about 40 hours, it might finish the B wave, presenting a short opportunity that could last through the entire C wave down.
Follow for daily updates.
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
TONUSDTThis chart for the TON/USDT pair shows a strong upward movement with several key time intervals marked by vertical lines. Here’s a breakdown of what these time intervals might indicate:
Key Dates and Potential Market Movements:
August 19, 2024, 16:00:
Scenario: This is the first red-marked interval, which may indicate a potential pause or correction after the recent strong upward movement. Traders might begin to take profits, causing a temporary pullback.
Impact on Price: The price might experience a minor dip or consolidation phase around this time.
August 20, 2024, 08:00:
Scenario: The green-marked interval suggests a possible continuation of the bullish trend or a recovery if the market corrected earlier. Positive market sentiment or news could drive further buying interest.
Impact on Price: There could be another push upwards, possibly testing new highs or reinforcing the current trend.
August 21, 2024, 02:00:
Scenario: The next red-marked interval might signal another potential reversal or correction phase. External factors or market saturation could lead to a pullback.
Impact on Price: A possible dip in price as traders reassess their positions.
August 22, 2024, 11:00:
Scenario: The green-marked interval indicates a return to bullish sentiment or a stabilization of the market after any previous corrections.
Impact on Price: The market may stabilize or resume its upward movement, depending on the overall trend strength.
August 23, 2024, 08:00:
Scenario: This red interval suggests another potential market event or reaction, possibly due to external factors or news impacting the market.
Impact on Price: Another dip or consolidation might occur around this time.
August 24, 2024, 00:00:
Scenario: The final green interval in the short-term analysis might indicate a resumption of the trend or stabilization after previous fluctuations.
Impact on Price: The price could either stabilize or continue its upward trajectory if the overall market conditions are favorable.
Considerations for Traders:
Volatility: The chart indicates several points of potential volatility within the next few days. Traders should be cautious and consider setting stop losses or taking profits at appropriate levels.
News Impact: Keep an eye on any news or market events around these dates, as they could significantly influence price movements.