Bearish on TONUSD: 58% to 97% Probability of Hitting TP1!Toncoin (TON) is currently facing several bearish pressures in the market:
Key Fundamentals
- Declining trading volume indicates waning investor interest
- Price action below key EMA levels (20-day, 50-day, and 100-day) reinforces bearish sentiment
- Recent completion of a Death Cross on the daily timeframe, the first since May 2023, suggests potential for further downside
- Broader cryptocurrency market uncertainty and regulatory concerns are affecting altcoins like TON
I'm employing probability-based analysis on my charts to strategically enter short positions on TONUSD.
3D:
Hourly timeframes:
Please feel free to share your ideas and thoughts!
TONUSD
Toncoin/USDT: Bearish Breakdown Threatening Key Support Levelhello guys.
I said my perspective about ton before:
let's go through the lower level:
The price of Toncoin (TON) is facing resistance from a descending wedge pattern, with multiple rejections from the upper boundary.
Price has not engulfed the previous highs, indicating that bulls are losing momentum and a breakout to the upside is less likely for now.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn, with the 0.618 level acting as a strong resistance zone.
If the current support (marked with the trendline) breaks, it could confirm a bearish continuation.
The first major target to the downside is the $5.17 level, which aligns with previous support.
A further breakdown could drive the price towards the $5.00 psychological support, a critical zone for bulls to defend.
A breakdown below $5.00 would open the path for deeper bearish targets.
Summary:
Descending wedge pattern with no bullish engulfing.
Price is testing support; a break could lead to a significant downside move.
Key support levels at $5.17 and $5.00.
Bearish continuation if these supports fail.
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TON → is in a dangerhello guys.
Head and Shoulders Pattern: A classic bearish reversal pattern has formed with a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, indicating potential downside.
Neckline Break: The price has broken below the neckline around $5.30, confirming the pattern and suggesting further bearish momentum.
Target Projection: The measured move target from the head to the neckline projects a potential drop towards $3.27.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance at $5.30 (previous neckline).
Further resistance near $6.10 (potential pullback area).
Support Levels:
Immediate support around $4.60.
Major support at $3.27 (pattern target).
Outlook: Bearish, with a high probability of a decline towards the $3.27 level unless the price reclaims the neckline. Watch for any signs of reversal or a break above $5.30 to invalidate the bearish scenario.
___________________________
✓✓✓ Always do your research.
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Further 50% decline in store for TON with bearish continuationTON/USD – Bearish Continuation with Elliott Wave & Head and Shoulders Setup
Toncoin has completed a Wave B as part of an ongoing A-B-C correction in the Elliott Wave structure. We are now entering Wave C, targeting a .618 Fibonacci level around $2.81. This level coincides with a previous high retest, adding further confluence to the idea of a potential bottom there.
Additionally, a Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, with the head peaking in May 2024 and a lower right shoulder forming around July/August 2024. The neckline sits around $5.00, and a confirmed breakdown below this level could accelerate the move toward the $2.81 target, completing Wave C.
Key Levels:
• Current Price: $5.61
• Neckline: $5.00
• Wave C Target: $2.81 (50% drop)
Both the Elliott Wave and the Head and Shoulders pattern suggest further downside, with $2.81 acting as a critical support zone. A break of the neckline could signal more selling pressure. Keep an eye on price action near $5.00 for confirmation.
TON Toncoin Potential Sell-OffIf you haven`t bought TON before the breakout:
Now you need to know that on August 24, 2024, the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by French authorities sent shockwaves through both the platform and its cryptocurrency, Toncoin (TON).
Durov's arrest, reportedly tied to illegal activities on Telegram, has been widely seen as an attack on free speech, which has paradoxically boosted interest in both Telegram and Toncoin.
This spotlight on Durov and his platforms presents both challenges and opportunities.
While the surge in activity signals increased attention, the future is uncertain.
The ongoing investigation and heightened regulatory scrutiny are likely to impact TON's market performance.
Investors and users are closely watching for further legal actions, as they could have significant consequences for Telegram and Toncoin.
With the regulatory landscape in flux, TON remains a risky investment until the legal situation stabilizes.
My price target for TON is $2.15.
TONUSD 1st 1D Death Cross in 1.5 years calls for more downside.Toncoin (TONUSD) has been trading within an established long-term Channel Up (blue) and a Diverging one (dotted), while forming a Bearish Leg since the June 15 2024 High.
The highlight of the day is the completion of the first Death Cross on the 1D time-frame since May 19 2023. Naturally this is calling for more downside, which can extend as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level according to the previous Bearish Leg.
Our Target is 3.50 and we expect the correction to complete a Bottom after the 1D RSI posts 3 straight Higher Lows, similar to the Bullish Divergence of July 2023.
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TON Still Seems BearishAs you know, the main structure of TON is bearish. A supply range has been formed. From this range to the demand range, the price can move down.
We are looking for sell/short positions in the supply range.
We also have a POI range on the chart. We are looking for buy/long positions in this range
The closing of a daily candle above or below the specified invlidation levels will cause a violation of the specified movement
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
TON of bricks or light as a feather?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Killed the impulse up. Doesn't feel natural to label the larger X as such due to the separation of correctives, but it's this or C of running flat.
Either way, the paths lead the same direction.
Impulse up with a corrective to LOI...of interest.
Trade Safe,
Trade Clarity.
TON TRADING IDEATONUSDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📊
The chart illustrates TON/USDT on a daily timeframe with clear Buy and Sell signals based on the forecast. Here’s a breakdown of the significant upcoming dates and signals:
🟢 October 4, 2024 - Buy Date (Green Line):
This date is forecasted as a local bottom, indicating a favorable time to start accumulating long positions in TON. Expect a price decline leading up to this point, providing a good opportunity to enter long trades.
🟥 September 19, 2024 - Sell Date (Red Line):
This line marks a potential local peak, suggesting it could be a good time to take profits or tighten stop-losses as a correction may follow shortly after.
🟥 October 29, 2024 - Sell Date (Red Line):
Another local peak forecasted for this date, signaling another ideal point to close positions and avoid possible price retracement.
🔴 Support Level Alert:
The horizontal red line at $3.558 signifies a critical support level for TON. If the price approaches this level, it’s essential to closely monitor for potential breakdowns or bounces.
🕒 Note: All times are based on Los Angeles time (UTC -7). There may be a slight margin of error of 1-2 candles depending on the timeframe. Cross-reference with higher and lower timeframes for more accurate decision-making.
TON of bricks?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
I can see several paths here.
4.733 kills impulse up/completes impulse down.
6.00 from here could be ZZ complete.
4.733 break, could flip from support to resistance.
Some IF:THEN scenarios on deck here.
Trade Safe!
Trade Clarity!
Ducks in A Barrel Long Setups - BTC, SOL, TON & PADISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This for educational purposes only to show how I am looking to participate in these markets. Trading involves significant risk, do your own homework and due diligence.
Ducks in a Barrel Weekly-Daily Strategy
LONGS: BTC, SOL, TON
SHORT: PA
LONGS:
The crypto market is overall in a strong up trend based on weekly MA's sloping up. We see that BTC, SOL & TON are undervalued vs the price of Gold and Treasuries, and are oversold on stochastic. If we see a trend change to the upside on the Daily chart, I'll look to long these markets. I admit, I'd like to see sentiment more bearish, as currently sentiment is in the middle of the road. Perhaps one more flush to the downside would create some panic and bearish sentiment, which would make this trade idea even more valid.
SHORTS:
Palladium is in a strong weekly downtrend. Right now we are overvalued vs treasuries, but not yet overvalued vs gold or overbought. I'd like to see this market get overbought & overvalued vs gold to qualify looking for shorts on the daily time frame.
Good luck & Good trading.
Position buyThis chart for TONUSDT (Toncoin against USDT) on a 4-hour timeframe seems to be highlighting an entry and exit strategy for traders. Here’s a breakdown:
Key Elements:
1. Best Entry Zone (5$) 🚀:
- The chart indicates that the $5.00 level is considered the "best entry" point for opening a long position, suggesting that the trader expects a price reversal or an upward movement from this level.
2. Take Profit 1 (TP-1) 🎯:
- The first take profit target is at $5.543, meaning that once the price reaches this level, traders may choose to lock in some profits.
3. Take Profit 2 (TP-2) 🎯:
- The second take profit target is at $6.144, where further profit can be taken if the price continues to rise.
4. Take Profit 3 (TP-3) 🎯:
- The third and highest target is set at $6.731, which suggests a more ambitious profit target if the price continues its upward momentum.
5. Stop Loss (SL) 🛑:
- The stop loss is placed just below $4.627, meaning that if the price drops to this level, the trade will be closed to limit losses.
Summary:
- Entry: Around $5.00 (best entry).
- Take Profit Targets:
- TP1: $5.543
- TP2: $6.144
- TP3: $6.731
- Stop Loss: $4.627
This is a simple risk management strategy where the trader aims to catch a bounce from the $5.00 level with multiple profit-taking points on the way up and a defined exit if the price moves against them.
TON Coin Mid Term LONG IdeaTON coin is currently experiencing panic selling due to the founder’s arrest. However, we believe in the strength and potential of the TON ecosystem.
Technically, it’s at levels that are suitable for buying, and long-term investors may consider adding it to their SPOT wallets using the DCA strategy.
For those who prefer to avoid risk, they can wait to enter the trade after a deviation outside the range.
Take your risk, make some profit !
TONUSDTHere’s a sample analysis text for the TON/USDT pair based on the 1-hour timeframe chart you provided:
🔍 TON/USDT Analysis: 1-Hour Timeframe 📉
The TON/USDT chart on a 1-hour timeframe indicates key upcoming dates where price movements may provide trading opportunities. It’s essential to align these signals with higher timeframes for a holistic view of the market.
• August 26, 2024, 21:00, August 28, 2024, 21:00 - Green Lines: These times suggest potential local lows. These moments might offer favorable conditions for accumulating TON or entering long positions.
When dealing with this 1-hour timeframe, remember that these movements should be analyzed within the context of higher timeframes to gain a comprehensive understanding of the overall market trend.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few hours. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
TON Toncoin the next FTX/ LUNA ?! CEO Pavel Durov Arrested ! If you haven`t bought TON before the brekout:
Now the recent arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency world, particularly concerning the future of TON coin.
Durov's arrest stems from allegations by OFIM, a French national police office, accusing him of complicity in crimes such as drug trafficking, distribution of child sexual abuse material (CSAM), and fraud due to Telegram's lack of moderation.
This development raises serious concerns about TON coin's stability. Investors fear a sharp decline, drawing parallels to the collapses of FTX and LUNA, which suffered massive selloffs following high-profile scandals involving their founders.
With Durov as the face of Telegram and a key figure in the TON ecosystem, his legal troubles could significantly erode confidence in the cryptocurrency.
The arrest could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny of Telegram, potentially causing further issues for TON coin.
In the short term, investors should brace for potential volatility, as the risk of a selloff looms large.
The future of TON coin now hinges on how Durov's legal situation unfolds and whether Telegram can withstand the resulting pressures.
TON → there is no risk for toincoin so farhello guys.
Let's analyze OKX:TONUSDT
Top Line Resistance: The chart identifies a rising resistance level (top line) that the price has tested multiple times but failed to break above convincingly. A breakout above this line could signal a bullish move.
Neckline Support: There is a crucial support level (neckline) that has held up the price so far. The analyst suggests that if the price breaks below this neckline, it could trigger a bearish move.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below the neckline, the target for the downside is around the $3.10 level.
This level is marked as the "target of breaking down" and could act as strong support if the price reaches it.
Bullish Scenario:
If the price manages to hold the neckline and breaks above the top line, the chart suggests a potential upward move toward higher levels.
Current Price Action: The price is currently around $5.62, showing a potential retest of the neckline. Traders should watch for a decisive move either below the neckline or above the top line to determine the next major trend direction.
This analysis outlines the importance of the neckline as a critical level. The outcome of whether the price breaks below this level or holds above it will likely dictate the future trend direction.
___________________________
✓✓✓ Always do your research.
❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
TON (Toncoin): Approaching ResistanceTrade setup : Trends are mixed but price remains in an Uptrend on a long-term basis. It bounced off of 200-day moving average, which acts as support, and reached our near-term target of $6.75 for +25% gain. Now we look for the right entry opportunity in Uptrend.
We wait for price to either 1) break above $6.75 to signal continuation of uptrend, with +20% upside potential to $8.30 next, or 2) pullback to 200-day MA for another swing entry with +25% upside potential to $6.75. Stop Loss at $4.40. (set a price alert). We also issued a bullish fundamental research report (Coin Pick) on TON recently (May 24) that suggests there's 80% upside based on comparable valuation of other L-1 and L-2 networks.
Pattern : Price is Approaching Resistance , which is a level where it could pause or reverse its recent advance, at least temporarily. Resistance is often a level where price got rejected in the past, or potentially prior Support level that was broken. (concept known as polarity). Once price breaks above resistance, it can advance higher to the next resistance level. Learn to trade key levels in Lesson 7.
Trend : Short-term trend is Up, Medium-term trend is Neutral and Long-term trend is Neutral.
Momentum is Bullish but inflecting. MACD Line is still above MACD Signal Line but momentum may have peaked since MACD Histogram bars are declining, which suggests that momentum could be nearing a downswing. Price is neither overbought nor oversold currently, based on RSI-14 levels (RSI > 30 and RSI < 70).
Support and Resistance : Nearest Support Zone is $6.00, then $4.75. Nearest Resistance Zone is $6.75, then $8.30.