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BTCUSD - Topping out around 66k?BTC is yet to fully correct, at least on the weekly. In my eyes, these huge candles up are unsustainable without significant greed. Significant greed cannot continue indefinitely without returning to the mean (neutrality), and likely, significant fear. There are a few factors I believe will influence a correction: Greed across the traditional and crypto markets. See CNN's sentiment analysis and alternative.me's fear and greed index. Only 5% of institutional financial managers are planning to hold BTC in 2021 (volatility being cited as the main reason), implying the feverishness of 'mass adoption' is overstated and overhyped. Bitcoin is back in mainstream media. The more exposure it gets, the more FOMO and greed kick in, the more new investors pile in, the more people ready to buy right at the top and add selling pressure on the way down. Big green (or red) candles, while difficult to gauge the top, often result in big moves back down. Similarly, an almost vertical acceleration implies a significant deviation from its mean (anecdotally, the further and quicker something deviates away from its mean, the quicker it comes back). Currently, BTC's yearly EMA is almost exactly the previous ATH of $20k. Simply, a correction is due. It's gone up but hasn't come down much. So, knowing that a correction is due at some point, we can then try and forecast the top. While looking for similarities between the last ATH and this current rally, I noticed there was a period of consolidation, followed by a higher low that wicked down (marked on the chart). Using these points as anchors, the next anchors are the ATH and the last high at $42k. While the intraday levels of these fibs fit nicely, there are 2 extensions that caught my eye on the weekly that fit almost perfectly. The 1.618 level on the recent fib (grey) and the 3.618 level of the ATH fib (red) both sit around $66.1k and $66.3k respectively. Seeing how well the other levels line up through previous price action gives me confidence these are valid levels. I'll give coordinates at the end of this post so you can see what I mean. I've also included a 3-factor BB on the chart for confluence. While the weekly close tomorrow will change the upper band, its near-vertical ascent will likely eventually be punctured by price. As denoted by the red circles, a reversal has occurred every time a swing has formed there. Moreover, for an asset to exceed 3 times its weekly standard deviation should ring alarm bells in anyone's ears. Okay, so we know where the top might be. How can we make a trade based on this? I'll start with where I think it might end up. If we use $66k as our first anchor and the bottom of the last consolidation at about $3.1k, then the 0.618 level (blue line) lines up perfectly with the most recent fib's 0.618 level on the way up. This falls at $27.5k, or rather, a contraction of 61.8%. The tricky part is stop loss placement. I'm going to say that a technically invalid level would be past the 3.764 level of the ATH fib at $70k. Anything between $71-72k would likely invalidate this idea. In summary: Entry: $65k Stop: $71-72k TP: $27.5k, $31k if conservative, $42k if ultra conservative Let me know what you think and give me a follow for more. Happy trading! COORDINATES: ATH fib = (1) 1830.00, (2) 19666.00 Current fib = (1) 3122.28, (2) 42000.00 TP fib = (1) 66026.19, (2) 3122.28
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
6
SPY Fibonacci Price Theory And BreakOut BarsThis instructional video teaches you the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory in conjunction with Breakout Bars and how price is the ultimate indicator. Throughout this video, I try to provide instruction on key elements related to the Fibonacci Price Theory (Unique & Standout Highs/Lows). Additionally, I've also included Breakout Bars and Fibonacci Price Retracement concepts. What I really hope you learn from this video is to see price as the true ultimate indicator for your trading decisions. Using technical analysis techniques is fine, but use price as the key element when trying to confirm or reject your trading ideas. I hope this helps you understand that price, action, and reaction through trends, peaks, and troughs are the most important components of the chart. Everything else is peripheral.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
3
📈Mastering Stock Selection:A Journey to Long-Term Wealth💰Part1Interested in selecting high-quality stocks and growing your wealth through long-term investing? Today, I'll guide you through effective stock selection methods, including the top-bottom and bottom-top approaches. Remember, as Warren Buffett famously said, "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." 💼📈 Let's start with the top-bottom approach. First, you choose an economy, such as Indian, US, or UK. Next, select a sector within that economy, like Financial Services, IT, or Pharma. From there, narrow down to an industry within the sector, such as AI, Clean-technology, or Hardware. Finally, choose a company within the industry. Don't worry if it seems complex – I'll provide examples and guidance throughout. 💡🔍 Conversely, the bottom-top approach flips this order. We start by selecting a company, then move up to its industry, sector, and finally, the economy. 💼🔄 Let's put theory into practice with the top-bottom approach: (a random example) 1. Choose India as the economy. 2.Select the IT sector for its promising future. 3. Opt for AI as the industry due to its potential. 4. Select Infosys as a company. Now, it's your turn! Share examples of top-bottom or bottom-top approaches in the comments for practice. 💬💡 In the upcoming discussions, we'll delve into the fundamentals of sector, industry, and company analysis. Don't worry—I'll explain everything from market cap and cash flow to return on equity (ROE). 📊✨ Target of likes (boosts): 25+ (if we achieve our target than I will make Part 2) 🎯🚀 Follow for more such ideas & learning content! 🔍
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by smarttrader012
1
Bitcoin Corrective Wave MetricsAnalysis of long-term corrective waves from ATH's of different historic periods Facts: The drop of 93.75% back in 2011 was the biggest correction of all time. With time the corrections after new established ATH's got gradually smaller. I'll use fibonacci retracement to measure those heavy drops as ATH - 1 and bottom as 0 to document how measurements of historic drops could define levels of forthcoming waves. -93.75% capture: 2.272 made next ATH of 2013 1.618 defined the 2015 bottom Similarly, -86.96% fib measurement defined: Next ATH of 2017 at between 2.272 and 2.414 Level of 1.414 called the bottom -84.22% drop: This time 1.618 called ATH of 2021 Level between 1 and 0.786 made 2022 bottom Logistic curve partially explains why forthcoming bottoms got close to the previous ATHs The question is, could that be a sign of already saturated market which would cause btc to sidetrend making a long-term diamond pattern. Despite of Bitcoin being deflationary asset, the rate of growth has been slowing down, as the % of bullrun waves got smaller. Knowing about positive correlation BTC and SP500, we can deduce that BTC wouldn't have grown if not for SP500. This dependence would be a venerability for Bitcoin, if AMEX:SPY drops in the nearest future. Nevertheless, many authors in TradingView are optimistic about further growth. The fact that current price still holds at previous ATH levels, could indicate that crowd could be actually right. So to estimate where it would stop, I'll use most frequent fib levels which defined both next bottoms and ATH's. Levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 and 2.272
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
5
🔥 Bitcoin: The Most Accurate Cycle Top Forecast To Date! 🚨Preface This analysis is based on historical price action. Since BTC only had a couple of cycles before, the data presented is based on just a few observations. Furthermore, this analysis will use calculations based on a mathematical model based on these few observations. TLDR/Summary at the bottom. Goal of this analysis In this analysis I'm going to take an attempt at making an educated guesss at when Bitcoin will top, and around which value it will top. With the information at hand, I'm reasonably certain that this is one of the best forecasts currently on the market. Indicators and Assumptions The first indicator on the chart is the Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands indicator, a personally made indicator which tries to calculate a Bitcoin top during a certain time frame by calculating a bottom and top band within BTC will top. More information below: The second indicator (or better said, assumption) that we use is the fact that Bitcoin has previously always topped between 34 - 47 weeks AFTER closing a weekly candle above the previous all-time high. I came to this conclusion after making this analysis below: Making the calculation 34 weeks after the 4th of March = 28th of October. 47 weeks after the 4th of March = 27th January. If the above will remain true for this cycle, we can expect Bitcoin to top between October 28th 2024 and 27th of January 2025. Now that we know the dates, we can also easily calculate the values. Naturally, we assume that the Bitcoin Logarithmic bands indicator will hold. (rounded for readability) 28-10-2024 lower band: 135.000$ 28-10-2024 top band: 195.000$ 27-01-2025 lower band: 144.000$ 27-01-2025 top band: 208.000$ Summary Based on the "New ATH to Top" model and the "Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands" model, we calculated that Bitcoin will top between 28-10-2024 and 27-01-2025, with a value between 135.000$ and 208.000$. Enjoy this analysis? Leave a like and a comment 🙏
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
21
Stock market peaks in July 2024, followed by an epic crash?I have made some calculations regarding potential stock market development in the S&P500 in the coming months. There is of course no guarantee that it will turn out exactly like this, but there are very interesting mathematical correlations in an optimal scenario. Since January 2018, the price has been inside an ascending channel with a couple of hits at both the bottom and the top of the channel and is on the way up. I have then measured the time and height from the covid low in March 2020 to the next peak in late 2021 and then made an exact similar measurement from the low in October 2022 to a possible future peak. Then I tried to find Fibonacci levels that coincide with the tops and bottoms of the chart. It can be tricky where there is no data but there are methods to resort to. If you measure from the bottom after the financial crisis in 2009 and to the highest before the covid rebound in 2020 (3397), you see that this ends up at the 50% level in this calculation. If you instead do a Fibonacci Extension between these levels, you end up at the same potential top level in the chart (double the distance). I have chosen to leave this out of the diagram to try and keep it as clean as possible. The really interesting thing is that all these measurements converge at exactly the same level and time. This occurs in July 2024 at ≈6121. Historically, peaks in the market usually occur around the same time that interest rates start to fall. According to the forecasts, it currently looks like it could happen in June this year. If all this were to occur, we can note that the rise from October 2022 will then be 75%. Should there then be a really big stock market crash and we look at the symmetry, i.e. 75%, we see that an equally large percentage decline would take us exactly to the levels at the double peak in the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the peak before the financial crisis in 2007. This is therefore a calculation based on an optimal scenario, and such scenarios unfortunately rarely occur. But it's worth keeping in mind in case the market takes us there anyway.
FX:SPX500
by magnusfogelberg
4
fomo buying chart pattern gold price made triple bottom at 1620 since then it is rising but crowd is now bullish at top at $2100 price level if buy the rumor sell the news is real then hedge funds already front running rate cut by fed same like at bottom $1620 in september 2022 👉 nobody talking where gold will be 18 months from now 👉 what will be next macro theme for gold 18 months from now 💡 in september 2025 we will be selling gold or buying gold 💡in september 2025 fed will be creating inflation or deflation
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by Sangam-Agarwal
BTC pain is next Alright, listen up, folks. I know things might seem rocky right now in the world of BTC, but let me tell you something – this is not the time to panic. Sure, there might be a correction looming on the horizon, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the world. In fact, it's far from it. Think about it. The big boys, the whales, they've been in this game for a while. They know how to navigate these waters, and they're already sitting pretty with their profits, probably even leveraging their positions. But what about us? Are we going to let fear dictate our actions? No way. This is our time to shine. This is our opportunity to show resilience, to show strength, to show that we're not going to be shaken by a little turbulence in the market. Remember why you got into this game in the first place. Remember the potential, the excitement, the thrill of being part of something revolutionary. So, I urge you, don't succumb to panic selling. Don't let fear cloud your judgment. Instead, stay calm, stay focused, and stay determined. This is just a bump in the road, a test of our resolve. And I have no doubt that we will come out of this stronger than ever before. Believe in yourselves, believe in the power of BTC, and together, we will weather this storm and emerge victorious. Let's show the world what we're made of. Let's hodl strong!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TrojanBible
Market is growing reminiscent of Autumn 2021A few weeks ago, we noted that the mania in the cryptocurrency market seemed to reach levels coinciding with the summer of 2021. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin’s price increases, the narrative about the “complacent plateau” and the never-ending rally grows stronger as well, making the current time reminiscent of late 2021. As a result of the massive rally, investors in stocks and crypto alike seem to have become numb to potential risks markets face in 2024. It is becoming increasingly apparent that there will be no six rate cuts this year with the accelerating inflation in the United States. The FED will have to keep monetary conditions tight for somewhat longer than many investors have initially anticipated (or until something breaks). By doing so, the FED will further slow down the economy and increase the chances of an economic accident (especially as the lagging effects of previous hikes do not seem to show up yet on the surface). Since such an accident would negatively affect the stock market’s performance, it would also negatively affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (considering the strong positive correlation between the two). Bitcoin continues to behave much like a risk asset, which only increases the odds of a significant decline in the case of a general stock market selloff. With that said, we are growing increasingly nervous about the overall situation in the market and think that Bitcoin might be approaching a top before a major trend reversal. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays daily and weekly graphs of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows show slight similarities in the price structures between these two charts (of course, similarities are subjective and debatable). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
13