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"This Wall Street stuff is easy"Seing a lot of messages like this: "Just spent a day with a friend with zero investing experience. Says he is up 60% on airlines stocks with 50% of his net worth. Claims this Wall Street stuff is easy and he should just quit his good medical job to day trade.". You know what this signals. Looking at a specific example, Dave Portnoy runs a website and was on the news for making a coronavirus rant a few weeks ago. On January 29th, 2020 it was announced that Penn Gaming Inc. (PENN - Get Rating) had purchased a 36% stake in Barstool worth $163 million in cash and stock. He saw the big price fluctuations of PENN. Going from $26 to $39. By March 18th it hit a low of $3.75. So he started day trading in early April or late March. 2 months ago. "Quickly up 100k" or something like that. He's been advising people since he started lmao. Then in a few days he reaches +150k and commands people to take a knee and bow to the new king of day trading (this was back in April). He shorted a stock by misclicking and discovered what short selling was. He got rekt, raged, but later came back. He got invited to CNBC fast money. "I am the king of the stock market" "I am smarter than Warren Buffet" "The old man lost his fastball. Tell him to get off the tracks or he’ll get run over. I don’t want to hurt him." "Say it with me... Stocks only go up. Only losers take profits. This is so easy. All you do is buy and you're rich like Scrooge Mc Duck." June 5: "I’m being modest when I say I’m the world’s greatest day trader. My unlimited money has upgraded to infinity money." He's a 43 yo man that became a millionaire with this site he created. Proving you don't need to be very smart to make it. Who knows, with enough FED intervention an idiot like him can make it, but the country won't. Some people to him: "@stoolpresidente my trading strategy is buy after you lose money in hopes that you sell and the price goes back up. Worked on $SAVE , $BABA next . Please sell your BABAs around $195. 10% commish coming your way when I’m a millionaire." His answer: "Brilliant" Hard to think this is not a parody. The stock market will probably rally higher on positive hopes for the rebuilding of destroyed us cities. Very rational. This will age beautifully. Can't wait.
TVC:IXIC
by MrRenev
2
1929, RETAIL COMPLACENCY AND SELF DECEIT. A RECAPITULATIONThis article was written by the phenomenally talented acatwithcharts and edited by me. I didn’t think this was 1929 until this past few weeks, but now it looks like that’s what this has become. The problem is that if that’s true, we might not even be done running the bubble up. Something’s got to give but I’ve also been saying that for 5-10% now, which, is symptomatic of retail delusion. Retail participation and sentiment has begun to resemble late 2017-early 2018 crypto, compounded by the further financial desperation of current world events. COVID-19 cases are setting new highs in Texas and Florida. Arizona is parabolic and we’ll be testing the “nothing matters anymore” question pretty soon with some states needing to close again. Outside of the US however, RIP emerging markets. Latin America is now the world’s epicenter and India’s daily cases are straight line up. There are various charts floating around Twitter showing it different ways, here for example. "This is stunning. At the peak of speculative fervor in February, small traders bought to open 7.5 million call contracts. This week, they bought 12.1 million.Watch what people do, not what they say. They're full-bore bullish, on steroids." Ah, right. The complacency phase. "We just needed to cool off for the next rally," despite the fundamentals getting significantly worse. This kind of thing doesn’t happen very often, we’re talking about end cycle behavior. The behavior during the year 2000 and the beginnings of retail being able to trade over the internet is probably the closest available comparison. This is very important to understand, either for the first time in history retail traders are getting it right.... ...or parabolic call buying on the most expensive the market has been since 1929 if not ever is idiotic. Two important notes we don't have the same quality of datasets to make a clear comparison, and my back of the envelope math is that 1929 was 2x as expensive as 2000. "I watched the food disappear off the shelves in the stores. I saw the panic spread, the people dying in Italy. I saw the giant drop of the market (yes, obviously an opportunity), but I also saw lots of other things that started coming. Fractures in our system began to appear. Supplies dwindled because they were too efficient and not stable enough. Minor changes broke companies. Travel basically halted. Now you've got major protests. Don't people see that it's not getting better, but it's a slow enough slide into a worse scenario that people are simply able to get comfortable before another drop?" -Eamon It's worse than that, as COVID-19 first wave never ended in the US. "2-4 weeks" is the supposed lag time, while here in Texas we started reopening with cases still rising a month ago. At this point the only real argument for why we're this high up is Fed intervention, though yield curve has widened to Jan 2018 levels. These yield curve readings suggest that they are at the limits before they start having unintended consequences that erode their effect. You have a hole in a hot air balloon, just because you're throwing money into the fire to make it hotter, it isn't making the hole any smaller. The issue is that the bounce is still going, in percentage terms the bounce is greater than the crash. At SPX 2600-2700, you could squint, say optimistically that the same forward P/E ratios made sense because you thought we weren't going to have major COVID-19 disruptions once we reopened. I would have disagreed with that case but it could have made sense and led to quarters of compression. Valuations are now 20-40% higher than in Feb given downward revisions. It's insane. The initial panic in 1929 saw a 50% drop in 2 months. A lot of people bought on the first bull trap one month in after it had dumped 100ish points. Where many really lost their shirts was in the 2nd month, but then there was a 50% rally over the next 6 months. Problems stemmed from the fact that the stock market was recovering, but the economy wasn't. 1929 is so crazy when you read the stories, like 2017 crypto crazy except with even more money. Ships crossing the Atlantic had brokerage offices with telegraphed stock info so people could trade on the ship. You can't make this shit up, 10x leverage was the standard amount and basically became the hot fad among the upper middle class and higher. There were few rules and the market was comically manipulated, RCA was famously pumped to absurd heights for example. It's hard to replicate 1929 because it was just so over the top. Accessible stock trading was a new experience for Americans. In the 2000 bubble, a similar situation on a smaller scale happened when the internet suddenly made electronic trading something ordinary people could do.
TVC:SPXLong
by DadShark
6
CHFJPY. The price reaches the target, there is almost no risk.Hi traders! Here is my analysis regarding this currency pair. The price of May 6 was at the support level, and since then the uptrend was supported, and as soon as it reached a key level, it began to grow even stronger. The price will reach the resistance level to the level of 112.500. The profit is not great, but the risk is minimal. Good luck to you! If you liked this idea, please like and subscribe to my profile. This idea does not provide the financial advice.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn6402893
2