Bitcoin - Learn how to see the signs!Your only winning bet at this point is to load up on high performing alts and keep waiting with more cash on hand to see if BTC will drop more(which more than likely will.) To be clear; NO ONE knows what will happen in the future but what I do know is how to read the warning signs of what is most likely to happen. If we look at BTC on the 12H it shows that we've gone under the very important 200MA. This is a sign of weakness and may send us below the green trendline which may lead to a drop to the $9300 - $9400 hundred area. So the 12H is saying that the likelihood of going down is very real and that a big down move is coming soon. Now let's go onto the next timeframe for more warning signs to read.
The 1D timeframe shows us that for far too long BTC's price has been riding under the 50MA and getting rejected, not to mention that we are running out of room in the triangle which is going to force a decision soon -- to go down (very likely) or range sideways (which is also likely.) The one thing this timeframe is not telling us is that we may go up. Going up is not in the cards.
The 3D shows us more independent info as well. We see that we are at the top of the triangle's downtrend line which has proven impossible to penetrate (not good if you want to go up.) Also, the magnetism of the 50MA is calling BTC down to the $9300 - $9400 area.
So for now in some of the most important timeframes, BTC is telling you that it is not done going down.
THE TREND: Going down still.
THE OUTLOOK: Unsafe to buy BTC but safe to buy top 10 marketcap alts.
Be safe and follow me to stay ahead of the curve.
TOP
BTC-USD DESCENDING TRIANGLE TOP REVERSAL ?The slightly rising trendlines used in price projection are estimates of the dominating angle where price reacts most to these trendlines.
Descending triangles can be also top or bottom trend reversal patterns.
In this triangle price projection is made from all time high to 0.1360 projection distance.
The almost horizontal bottom of the triangle is at 0.618 projection level -- and the price projection down is at the 1.618 level.
That level meets major previous bottom with the lowest parallel trendline .
Price reactions at 0.786 and 1.00 projection levels should be confirmations of that the trendlines angle is correct.
If price breaks upwards from the triangle -- the price projections down are falsified.
Time to discuss some real shitI see a lot of people comparing this area to the 20k top in 2017. During this consolidation period, sentiment has ranged from extremely bullish to extremely bearish with only a small few that I have witnessed, publicly acknowledge the macro consolidation length and what it may mean.
In 2017, we spent 2 weeks grinding the top of the range before plummeting to a 64% drop from peak *63 days* after we topped.
In 2019, we similarly spent 2 weeks grinding the top of the range but have spent the same exact amount of time ranging 35% up and down as it took the the price to drop 64% in 2017.
There are plenty of other marked differences as well, such as the halving timing, in 2017 the halving had already occurred and people were chasing a fundamental event that was already priced in. Additionally, alt coins are not booming like they were in 2017, there are no speculatively fervent bubbles at risk of the needle prick. People who watched the space balloon in 2017 can't process the fact that capital moves cyclically, like in all spaces. Depending on the length of the underlying cycle things can happen fast or slow, regular or irregularly, but eventually a cycle will be found.
I think that a cycle has been found in crypto. Bitcoin leads the market and peaks near 90% dominance before capital has the incentive to move into altcoins. I don't think we've reached this part of the cycle whatsoever. This usually comes after Bitcoin makes new all time highs.
70 days of 30-45% ranging, with plenty of things like the fear and greed index being extremely low and the fear of recession among retail investors with very little experience tells me that people have risked off but will not shy away from re entering this market as risk-on investors as soon as the prices threatens new highs once more. There is still plenty of money to be invested into Bitcoin.
To some this may seem like a moonboi rant of sorts, but I feel the community is far too bearish at this point in time. We have risen in a manner which implies Bitcoin has entered an entirely new cycle. Nothing on the macro level has really confirmed the suspicion of those who anticipate a drop to 6000, 7000, 8000. There are a record number of people who missed the boat in this cycle, and I believe it shows in sentiment.
The people who didn't miss the lows of the cycle and are exposed safely, or have profited and since rebought and sold many times, will not shy away from Bitcoin. The USD is currently undergoing a massive weakening due to its monetary policy and fiat currencies around the world are plunging because of this as well. There is high levels of correlation between all of the paper money in the world and very little collateral behind any of it. When confidence is high, things are fine, but in times of uncertainty people look away from traditional safe havens and find alternatives. Bitcoin is a unique asset because it is versatile. It can be added to the portfolio as a hedge to particular things, even gold. But it is , unlike gold, also able to be considered a risk-on asset and this means that it has the potential to attract many types of investors.
The date is August 30, 2019. The chart to me, shows a massive consolidation that is preceded by a 300%+ rise. Very rarely in history of Bitcoin does it start a cycle of growth and not finish it in a parabolic blow off. If this was that parabolic blow off, I reckon we would have been -64% by now.
What were you doing on August 30? Were you bearish or bullish?
$BTC 3 Peaks Planif we do follow the 3 peaks pattern then we should see a top here soon.
If we dont breakout and a rejection happens expect $10.2-10.3 to hold as a support.
A breakdown would be bad and mean we will see another micro downtrend. If thats the case expect more downside and a takeout of the local lows at $9k.
Any breakout would mean $18-20k
FUSIONGAPS DEMO2: BTCUSD winding up for another massive pump?Another chart analysing DEMO using my FUSIONGAPS oscillator showing a possible mid-term trend of BTC, by comparing on historical oscillator trends/patterns.
Link to my FUSIONGAPS indicator:
An earlier chart showing how to use FUSIONGAPS to pick possible good time/price for entry/exit.
Not a financial/trading/investment advice. Exercise your own judgement and take responsibility for your own trades. ;)
And if you like this set of indicators, and it has benefited you in some ways, please consider tipping a little to my HRT fund. =D
cybernetwork @ EOS
37DzRVwodp5UZBYjCKvVoZ5bDdDqhr7798 @ BTC
MPr8Zhmpsx2uh3F5R4WD98MRJJpwuLBhA3 @ LTC
1Je6c1vvSCW7V2vA6RYDt6CEvqGYgT44F4 @ BCH
AS259bXGthuj4VZ1QPzD39W3ut4fQV5giC @ NEO
rDonew8fRDkZFv7dZYe5w3L1vJSE51zFAx @ Ripple XRP
0xc0161d27201914FC0bAe5e350a193c8658fc4742 @ ETH
GAX6UDAJ52OGZW4FVVG3WLGIOJLGG2C7CTO5ZDUK2P6M6QMYBJMSJTDL @ Stellar XLM
xrb_16s8cj8eoangfa96shsnkir3wctdzy76ajui4zexek6xmqssweu85rdjxrt4 @ Nano
~JuniAiko
(=^~^=)v~
How to use my FG oscillator in conjunction with DFG oscillatorLooks like BTCUSD still have a little bit further down to go, but is winding up for a next significant pump.
DEMO of the use of my FUSIONGAPS (FG) and DIFFERENTIAL FUSIONGAPS (DFG) scripts, with my LIVIDITIUM indicators set.
Not a financial/trading/investment advice. Exercise your own judgement and take responsibility for your own trades. ;)
See also:
If you like this set of indicators, and it has benefited you in some ways, please consider tipping a little to my HRT fund. =D
cybernetwork @ EOS
37DzRVwodp5UZBYjCKvVoZ5bDdDqhr7798 @ BTC
MPr8Zhmpsx2uh3F5R4WD98MRJJpwuLBhA3 @ LTC
1Je6c1vvSCW7V2vA6RYDt6CEvqGYgT44F4 @ BCH
AS259bXGthuj4VZ1QPzD39W3ut4fQV5giC @ NEO
rDonew8fRDkZFv7dZYe5w3L1vJSE51zFAx @ Ripple XRP
0xc0161d27201914FC0bAe5e350a193c8658fc4742 @ ETH
GAX6UDAJ52OGZW4FVVG3WLGIOJLGG2C7CTO5ZDUK2P6M6QMYBJMSJTDL @ Stellar XLM
xrb_16s8cj8eoangfa96shsnkir3wctdzy76ajui4zexek6xmqssweu85rdjxrt4 @ Nano
~JuniAiko
(=^~^=)v~
3&4hr chart invh&s & fallingwedge nullified. zooming out to 1dayafter the 3hr50ma refused to submit to the bulls at the invh&s neckline thee bears dumped it below the head and nullfiied the 4hr falling wedge at the same time. This is a great example of why selling at a neckline in a correction phase like this can be a very very smart move if you set a smart stoploss buy-in a few pips above the neckline. Since the smaller time frame patterns were getting nullified it was time to zoom out and take another look at the daily chart which we can see a nice falling wedge forming on as well with a strong horizontal support at 8504. That is of course a good sign for the bulls but we must also remember we are under the double tops neckline and have already closed 1 candle below it this could be the confirmation candle for it and if the double top is triggered that drop target is just under 6k! While not impossible I think he 8504 zone will likely be enough of a strong support zone to keep things a float and once the 3 day golden cross solidifies and sustains itself the correction should be finished up and ready to resume bullmode. For now the battle is 1 day falling wedge vs. 1day doubletop
ETFC Topped in 2018Weekly view shows a downtrend until the end of 2018, then the stock moved sideways in a trend that is not a bottom. Supported by a weak intermediate support level. Could break to the downside with High Frequency Trader action.
HD(Home Depot): All parabolic movements must come to an end What goes up, must come down. While this is not always true in this world, it's much more likely than not that a parabolic movement will eventually see a sharp, then lengthy, dwindling correction before it continues upward. This may seem like a crazy chart, but there are some unavoidable signs that the housing market is slowing down. Some experts are now predicting we may see some recession in 2020. Home Depot is a leading indicator of the hosuing market dropping off. Looking at the facts, Home Depot has increased its value 1186% since the market crash in 2009. To assume there will be no correction for this parabolic move will be foolish. The question is, when, and at what price? I think we may be reaching a top, if we have not already around $219. RSI has been moving bearishly against the price action on the monthly chart and is now in a nuetral/bearish range for the first time in nearly a decade. As of now we are still producing higher highs, but we did show one lower low. I believe if the next upward movement doesn't show a higher high (above $219.30) we might be at the peak and ready for some correction. This could easily bring price all the way down to the .5 FIB of its parabolic movement, or around $118.
Am I suggesting you short Home Depot? Only if you're crazy. I like doing something out of the box once in a while though, so I'm going to play a small bag just for the sake of technical analysis.
BTC BLX - That Which Can Not Be UnseenCall me what you will, and you will, and I do not care- but you can't unsee this.
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Declining volume since 2015...
Tops on HTF's
Closer look at the current Horn Top on a 2 Week chart
Meeting resistance
Broke down out of Ascending Wedge
5 Waves with correctives abiding by the rule of alternation- Wave 2 sharp decline, Wave 4 extended in breadth
Bitcoin likes the 886 level on L/MTF's, note the level
Below DHMA's on the Weekly
Some Yearly chart levels to be aware of
Flip on Volume Profile
Fibonacci Time sequence on this Weekly chart has been correct 6 times so far for trend reversals since ATH, the next Weekly date in the sequence is Monday 7/22/2019, and the following date is 7/20/2020.
Now that you have seen all of this take into consideration the current perspective of Bitcoin by the US government; while Wall Street desires to take advantage of a new market they will not do so without proper regulation in place...but anyone can create an Altcoin. Any company can create a "crypto" as we have seen Facebook attempt to do so with Libra (not an actual cryptocurrency). You can look to the list of 100 members of the board of Calibra for companies desperate to also take advantage of new money in, to them, a new untapped market. There are also investigations into Bitfinex and Bitmex happening, Beaxy having been hampered buy low volume since opening, and Bakkt test launch of Futures. The last time a Futures product for BTC debuted it was the very beginning of the 2018 Bear Market. Also take the irrationality of the market right now, with maximalists calling for $30k, $50k, and plenty higher talking about the Moon- last time the market was like this? December 2017. Now, I do not believe that Libra will debut anytime soon, the reason why it is being greeted with government resistance is that Congress hates Facebook, and the reason why Wall Street and CNBC have been hyping Libra is because they are heavily invested in Facebook, but I do believe that we will see in influx of new Altcoins with an Altseason of epic proportions between 7/22/2019 and 7/20/2020. What happens after that can only be assessed at that time. I am not saying that Bitcoin will reach lows in the 3-digits but I do believe that Bitcoin will enter a Bear Market/year long consolidation period, beginning week of 7/22/2019...