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BTCUSD - When to top upI'm a big believer in BTC long term and whilst it's likely to correct, I'm holding my position. This post is not about shorting or selling as I just wouldn't want to bet against this market. It is about trying to identify the right time to top up. It is interesting how two different time frames can show two very different pictures. The hourly chart shows a parallel or upward flag forming with support pushing back any drops. RSI has moved into neutral territory. This might suggest to top up now. On the other hand, looking at the bodies of the candlesticks, the daily shows a continued upward trend with yesterday being just a 'small blip'. However the RSI is showing overbought at 79 and close to 80. BTCUSD has had a close between 80 and 81 four times in the past five months, each time a consolidation followed. Even with all the positive momentum and 200k+ Coinbase customers per day, this suggests a consolidation is due. So where will it go? Take a look at this table. i.imgur.com In the last five months, we typically see a drop of around 9% the next day. This is then followed by a low, on average, 9 days later of 19%. However, breaking those down, we can see that excluding the 14 Aug and 14 Oct, the average drop was 31%. Given the risk of a significant correction at this stage, I'm ignoring the 9% drops. I'm keen to get in if we see a correction similar to Sept and Nov. I'll spread my buy in so I don't miss an opportunity or buy in too high. The table above shows how I spread this to get an average buy in of 24% down (7,938) from the high on the wick of candle on the day close of RSI 80+. I have assumed this to be 10,500 but will adjust as events unfold. If this correction doesn't happen, great, I'm in long term, so I'm happy either way. I just dont want to top up too early or miss an opportunity to do so. Cheers monkia p.s. I recently came across tradingview and thought, why not share these so I can get opinions, feedback and challenges to these ideas. So all feedback welcome!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by monkia
2
comming targets around $8800 and $10000?assuming we finally break resistance comming targets should be $8800 based on the prior ascending triangle that we broke followed by backtest to prior resistance line or eventually 2.618 fib followed by either a crash or blowing off 3.618 rise to $10200 which might be the top for 2017, otherwise if support holds along the purple striped line we could se another bullish move going beyond 10k .. We getting kinda topy must admit however bubless usually go way higher then everyone thinks I'd like to reffer to masterluc's 40k-110k bubble target here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZtCedric
1
Bitcoin: The case for a move down.Bitcoin has grinded its way back to the 61.8% fib retracement of the fall from ATH to the recent lows of 5550. The 61.8% also happens to line up with previous support and the psychological level of 7000. Would not be surprised to see a move back down into 6000 and lower over the next few days. If 7000 does not hold to the upside 7200-7400 would be last bastion before a continued press higher and new ATHs. However I do not recommend shorting this beast as that's a good way to burn your account. Let me know your plan / thoughts below on bitcoin from here. Good trading all. Luke
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Beebags
BTC: A Tug of War between FOMO or FUDTaking a step back sometimes is helpful to make sure that you are anticipating the crowd instead of become a part of it. BTC is holding the $7000 level SURPRISINGLY well and at this point it almost feels as though all TA is out the window. I keep asking myself is it on wave 3 or wave 5? Is BTC finding its top or getting ready to blast off? My guess is most traders out there (like me) are caught between FOMO and FUD and so I am sitting out of this one. I rode the bubble for a while but I'm opting to take the week off and remain for a return to sanity or just mean regression... whichever comes first. Here's a short term somewhat neutral and forecast based on the FOMO, FUD, and upcoming Fork. Play at your own risk...
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by myceliium
1
German DAX - Potential large scale top could be in placeThe German DAX has reached the cluster resistance near 13,500 and a potential large scale top could be in place. If this is the case, then we soon should see a break below minor support at 13,194 and more importantly below 12,913 that will be a strong indication of a top being in place. A large five wave rally can now be counted from the March 2009 low of 3,589 and a smaller five wave rally can be counted from the February 2016 low of 8,695, so the risk/reward ratio no longer favor being long the German DAX. Consider taking money off the table or at least tighten up your stops.
FX:GER30
by EWS
BITCOIN: First Minimum Target/Top ProjectionWe are looking at BTC and we see some interesting levels. The most important thing is that you always look for minimum target, if goes higher even better.. As we know we are in 5th wave, so we have to be very careful arround those levels. Minimum first potential target we see at 161,8% Fibo. extension of wave 4 and 6200 psychological level, so this is important level for Bitcoin's first minimum top! As you see on the chart, we have also very important channel resistance, which has not broken yet! There's also some interesting psychological levels in a lower degree, so we expect that Bitcoin will hit 6000 for 3rd wave of 5th and then some bigger correction in wave (IV) with support arround 5500 and previous wave IV and then one more final push into 5th of 5th to 6200! Keep in mind that this is minimum projection, so if we see any stronger rally to the upside above those levels then we will start tracking an extended 5th wave! Have a nice weekend!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
13