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BTC 'Top Bottom' Indicator AreasStarting from 1 June 2015, there have been 20 'sell' signals on the Top Bottom indicator (not including the most recent signal). Fifteen out of 20 periods from 'sell' to 'buy' signals represent negative price changes. Here, these periods are defined as the daily high on the day of the 'sell' signal to the daily low on the day prior to the 'buy' signal. The descriptive statistics of these periods are below. No. Days: Range = 5 to 151 Median = 33.5 M = 44.6, SD = 35.1 Per Cent Change: Range = -45.36 to 10.12 Median = -7.21 M = -11.06, SD = 15.68 Currently, we are on Day 66 since the latest 'sell' signal. The three grey boxes run from Days 45-80-115-150. Statistically, there is a good chance the current period should end within two weeks and an even greater chance that it ends by mid-March. The daily low on the final day of the current period should fall within these ranges. The numbered candles are merely examples.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bjames123
Broadening Formation & Wedge – Indices – EU50 - Daily - ShortCAPITALCOM:EU50 Looking at the upward trend from March 2020, we can see that you will get various readings depending on where you place your trend line. Due to this and not specifically knowing if the stock is in a downtrend, I placed my trendline to match the newest low. This is because, in an uptrend, this could be the retracement followed by a move higher, and this has been known to happen in indices. Remember that indices are a collection of top-performing companies, so the price typically goes up. Based on this, now I make my analysis. I can comfortably say that if it is pushed past this new low, the uptrend is probably over. You can see the ascending broadening formation that begins in April 2021 and move, creating new higher highs till January 2022, where the price starts to lose its momentum. It subsequently creates a wedge with a series of lower highs but is still supported by the bottom support level, which is proving difficult to push past. If you take note of the volume for each valley that hits this support level, you will see that it is above average. This happens every time the price moves there. This means that the support level in this area is a potent one. Not to mention if we look at the price here, you will find it sitting at a tidy round number (4000 EUR). From this, we can assume that buys have bought in here and are determined not to let price breakthrough. However, if we look at the tightening wedge, along with the series of lower highs, the partial decline, and the volume just days prior signaling all the selling pressure, we can perhaps be inclined to think that a decline in price is on the way. Moreover, the wedge has formed what looks like a double top, but we will have to wait for the price to break the 4000 (Euro) mark in order for it to be confirmed. I would suspect that if the price drops and closes below 4000, then there would be a potential short position. You might think that the previous valleys with their large volume would be a barrier to the short move if it does break, but I think they are too close within the price reach to be of any significance. You could perhaps look at the first valley as your profit target. That would be approximately at a price 3853. If you jump in at 4000 or just below as I suggest, you are looking at a target of 5 to 1. Remember that your stop would be just above 4000. This is because in the event that this is just a retracement, you would want to be out of the position immediately. You could even tighten up your stop to increase your risk to reward, but I would wait to see what the indices does before taking this strategy.
CAPITALCOM:EU50Short
by DevlonJarrodHorne
Yep...it still looks like a top to me..I discussed my view on January 25th about the S+P being a potential top and identified a head and shoulders top. I said the following: 'If we are correct in our assumption that the market has topped, we may see a ‘return to point of break out’, where the market rallies back to the ‘neckline’ of the head and shoulders top. These reactions are frequently seen and in this particular case the rally should fail somewhere around the 4600 zone.' So this has now been seen, it looks to me like that the rebound is running out of steam around 4600 ....and we are looking for failure....this is pretty classic charting so far. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPXShort
by The_STA
TEXTBOOK Ending Expanding DiagonalDino juice looking like a page out of an Elliot Wave Theory textbook. All rules have been illustrated to be present and not broken. This is probably the most extensive analysis I've done so I would love to hear any feedback. Always do your own due diligence. Supposedly these patterns are "extremely rare".. Ending expanding diagonal Rules (these are “hard” rules; they cannot be broken) A diagonal triangle always subdivides into five waves. An ending diagonal always appears as wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag or flat. Waves 1, 2,3, 4 and 5 of an ending diagonal always subdivide into zigzags. In the expanding variety, wave 3 is always longer than wave 1, wave 4 is always longer than wave 2, and wave 5 is always longer than wave 3. In the expanding variety, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3. Guidelines (guidelines can be broken but it’s rare that they are) Within an impulse, wave 5 is unlikely to be a diagonal triangle if wave 3 is not extended. In the expanding variety, wave 5 usually ends slightly before reaching a line that connects the ends of waves 1 and 3. source: worldcyclesinstitute.com
TVC:USOILShort
by theroadtoprofit
4
Comparing Tech Bubble to Current BubbleInteresting to observe the 3 very distinct stages of the market bubble cycle. Yellow = "Stealth Phase" where all of the smart money accumulates while everyone else sits in fear of the previous bubble, crash, credit cycle, etc. - Transition to Blue via "take off" clear change in character Blue = "Awareness Phase" where all of the institutional investors accumulate. This phase includes several selloffs that increase in severity, to shake out the weak hands and accumulate at better price. -Transitions to Pink via "Media Attention" - celebrities are born - Dot Com - Jeff Skilling, Ken Lay, Mark Cuban, Larry Ellison, etc. Everything Bubble - Elon, Jeff Bezos, Zuck, DeepF*ckingValue, etc. Pink = "Mania Phase" where the retail army comes to do the heavy lifting for the Blowoff top. Everyone and their mom's cat are in the markets, everyday folk are discussing the hot tech stocks or the new crypto that will take over the world, and celebrities make the final transformation to cult leaders. - Transitions are fast in this stage - the possibilities are endless and the grand delusions capture everyone - Great companies light money on fire in public via M&A, companies use all of the new buzzwords - .com, web.01, internet, web.03, crypto, decentralized, AI, Metaverse, etc. Families sell their children to BTFD. Blow off - Everyone continues to BTFD and cry at the same time all the way until they finally give up in the Yellow stage of the next cycle. Frauds are uncovered in droves but hardly anyone goes to prison.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Profit_Reaper
2
Bitcoin to $20,000!? Taking a quick look at the market to build some planned buying zones. Yellow shows you the dollar zones I am looking at. Parking dry powder with some limit orders is your best option here as some exchanges have larger liquidity drops than others. I am not sure if we will head to $20k but that probability dramatically increases if we break $30k and our support line becomes resistance. If we do head there I believe it will be short lived. Watching the news on Russia, Evergrande in China exploding, FED talking or walking, and the commercial real estate market in the next few months finally showing their defaults hitting financial stocks. There is a lot going on in the short term so be nimble, be quick, or trip over the candle sticks.
TVC:GOLD
by DefyingFinance
1
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Paralell Channel, RSI & Volume from 2011This is a detailed analysis of the Logarithmic Bitcoin USD Price Chart. Pi Cycle Top, as taught to me by Joel Bishop, a bonifide badeass who knows his bitcoin cycles. He has published content and must give him the credit for teaching me about this indicator or indicator function on trading view. Hope this helps anyone wrap their heads around where price is headed based on the logarithmic scale. Staying in the parallel channel, price could reach as little as 20k or even 15k, but would present an amazing buying opportunity imho. This cannot be construed as financial advice, only my prediction of where I believe price will be at by the beginning of 2024. Thanks and enjoy!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EMJ123
1
Why we view the S+P as a longer term top.The sell-off on the S+P 500 is finding some support from both cloud and Fibonacci support just above 4200, which prompted a decent rebound yesterday, so was this a simple correction and we should buy the dip or was this a start of a more significant sell off? From a technical perspective, we are increasingly of the opinion that the market has topped longer term, and this is the start of a more significant sell-off. Why do we think that? 1. There is a clear top pattern between approx. 4500-4800 ish, which to our practiced eye looks like a head and shoulders reversal pattern (yes, its messy but it is a top). These are well documented reversal patterns that come at the end of an extensive bull move. 2. We no longer meet the definition of an up move according to Dow Theory (which calls for higher reaction highs and higher reaction lows). 3. There was a large divergence on both the weekly and monthly RSI on the move to a new high. This reflects a significant loss of upside momentum longer term. This occurs when the market makes a new high and the indicator does not. 4. We have sell signals on the daily and weekly DMI signal (directional movement index). These occur when the red line breaks above the blue line on the indicator. 5. We have broken below the 200-day ma for the first time since June 2020. If we are correct in our assumption that the market has topped, we may see a ‘return to point of break out’, where the market rallies back to the ‘neckline’ of the head and shoulders top. These reactions are frequently seen and in this particular case the rally should fail somewhere around the 4600 zone. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPXShort
by The_STA
1
DAOs – The Next Big Trend in Crypto 2022What is DAO? DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) is a methodology for quickly organizing a large group of people to achieve specific goals and tasks. In DAO, control is distributed among all team members, rather than one main figure. Most modern companies, or any kind of enterprise, have a strict, hierarchical, vertical management structure with bosses, presidents, and boards of directors. Decentralized organizations have a flatter management system, where each person has a voice and the ability to put forward a proposal to change or improve the organization. The classic daily functioning of an autonomous organization implies the absence of intermediaries and full or partial automation. Everything is executed and written using smart contracts. The number of votes a DAO member has - can be measured by the number of governance tokens in his wallet. Also, an equal vote can be held, where everyone has one, equal vote, or a quadratic vote distribution scheme is applicable, etc. Blockchain and smart contracts guarantee transparency and no falsification. Why do you need it? Already, most of the crypto projects and investment funds are DAOs or are switching to this type of management. By understanding their structure, you will better understand the market. DAO is politics and democracy. Politics can be interesting too, especially when it is transparent, and your decisions influence something. DAOs bring money not only to their creators but also to ordinary members of the community. Organizations have their funds and grants. If you know various fields, organizations, and management skills, as well as a desire to take part in the development of web 3.0, then DAO is your chance for implementation. How does DAO work? Each organization has its own goals and objectives. The tasks that are assigned to the DAO are called mandates. For example: developing a network, attracting new supporters and users, mobilizing community activity, creating and maintaining content to promote projects and infrastructure in general. The direct execution of the mandates will be carried out by the Guardians. The DAO is community-driven and it is the core principle it is built on. However, a structure is important for any community where each person takes on a specific role and understands his area of responsibility. To structure the community, custodians are elected by voting in the DAO for a certain period. During the selection period of the custodians, every member of the community can nominate himself by providing a small resume about himself. The main task of the custodians is to organize the voting process and carry out the decisions made. Each of the custodians has their competence and area of responsibility for the implementation of mandates. Custodians are also responsible for the DAO fund (treasury) - money that is spent to achieve the goals indicated in the mandates. To spend treasury money, you need at least six out of nine Guardian votes. For this, a multi-signature system was created in the blockchain wallet. Where treasury money will be invested is decided, like everything else, by voting. Only stakeholders have access to management and participation in voting. Voting takes place on the blockchain and is completely transparent. In a first ballot, nine curators were selected to organize the subsequent work of the DAO. The community is the main and only governing body and driving force in the DAO. As with any organization, all community members who contribute to a common goal are fairly rewarded. DAO is the structure of the organization that is ideal for committed and committed people who are ready to invest in a common cause. All positions and employees are generously paid. You will find your role in the DAO, even if you are just ready to come up with bold ideas, answer questions in chat, or like politics. Any people interested in developing a common cause and forming a community will be able to realize their potential. Trends 2022 - DAO DAOs are one of the most important constructs in cryptocurrency, and they will change every aspect of economics, politics, and possibly even your social life in the coming years. If 2020 was all about DeFi and 2021 was about NFT, then 2022 will be the year of the DAO. The backbone of the Web3 economy and the wild world of the DAO is your wallets, which are like your personal data stores. Whether it's Metamask or Coinbase on Ethereum, Phantom on Solana, TerraStation on Terra, or something else. The tokens in these vaults give you access to cryptocurrency and will become more and more important in the coming years. In five years, people may be looking at the current wallet landscape and grinning at how primitive we were, but some solutions (eg Zapper, Zerion) show how we are getting closer to the time when our wallets can act as universal identifiers and data managers. Will DAOs exacerbate poor workforce dynamics that are already a problem for other service providers in the gig economy? Perhaps, there are many more positive aspects than negative ones. Early contributors will at least participate in improving the performance of the platform they are helping to create, even if those platforms result in variable labor costs. In any case, Web3 tokens are impossible not to invent. You will be working in DAO someday. Better to start now, while the alpha is at its highest. In some jurisdictions, it will become illegal to work for an unregistered DAO. On the other hand, other jurisdictions are likely to invite DAO employees with unique tax codes that take into account the difficulty of obtaining taxes without employer and bank oversight. Providing better treasury analytics to communities can significantly improve governance decision-making. It's not just the best treasury management practices, but also in the absence of professional treasury managers. The arrival of qualified financial managers for the DAO opens up great market opportunities and will help protocols be prudently diversified to ensure they are well-capitalized under all market conditions. The open and permissive nature of blockchain has led to a monumental shift that is redefining the relationship between protocols and their investors. Token Terminal (fundamental data), The Graph (on-net data), Nansen (fund flows), Dune Analytics (aggregated metrics), DeFiLlama (TVL), and Messari (market data and offline events) are essential tools today to help users get a complete picture of what is happening in the market. Venture DAOs are already hot and by 2025 one of the most active and largest venture capital funds with a large volume of assets will become a DAO. We also began to see DAO mergers and acquisitions gain traction. The next frontier could be the acquisition of Web2 by Web3. Most projects aspire to become DAOs, as this type of management brings money not only to the creators but also to ordinary members of the community. Possessing useful skills and knowledge, having the opportunity to influence DAO decisions regarding organization funds (funds, grants, etc.) and other issues within the framework of their transparent policy, everyone gets a chance to implement their ideas. Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
69
S&P500 Valuation RiskThe S&P500 has made a very large run up starting with the coronavirus liquidity crisis dump, and the entirety of that run up has been in an ascending wedge. This run in my mind has been mainly fueled by capital flight away from the dollar due to rampant inflationary activities at the Federal Reserve that go beyond the observed prior trend of the M2 supply. The fundamental situation of the economic strength (more specifically lack thereof) of the US does not warrant record high valuations, I believe this has only happened because of a combination of the uncertainty of the buying power of the dollar combined with the unprecedented low federal funds rate (interest rate for large institutions) of 0.05% and the recent rules change completely removing any reserve ratio requirement. TLDR: Infinite free money season for Vanguard, State Street, Black Rock. The key driver of this monetary expansion is likely to be found in the Federal Government balance sheet, They are increasing their debts rampantly beyond the point where it could ever be reasonably collected via even the most oppressive taxation. The way they intend to collect the bill for what they are buying is to make the paper currency worth SIGNIFICANTLY less. Trade deficit is enormous. Raw material shortages. Unemployment booming. Experimental drug mandates for workers. Nothing about the current situation points to a healthy economy, yet the valuations of stocks in relation to the total monetary float are enormous even after correcting for that expansion in monetary float. We have all seen bailout after bailout of unstable companies, and market segments over the last two years and I do not think these market segments are all of a sudden healthy (relative to their valuation). I think it would be almost nonsensical to think that more bailouts and more new issue currency being sprayed out by washington and their banking allies will not happen as a result of the downturn. Nobody seems to mind PE ratios in the hundreds or thousands, and they just keep buying, but will the institutions continue buying forever or will the straw break the camels back? This is quite troubling as the S&P is currently sitting at a ratio that has held for at least 60 years as the top with the sole exception of the 2000 dotcom bubble. I think we on or near the cliff edge of a very different kind of crash than we normally see. What I am suggesting is not that the S&P will drop, but I am also not suggesting that it will not drop. What I am suggesting is that either it will drop or inflation will kick in to a greater degree than ever before. I think it is very possible for the buying power of the S&P to go down at the same time as the numerical price going up. Likely price would go down at first which would result in a reaction from the federal reserve to accelerate our favorite printer. HOWEVER: I think the gains will never make it to the dining room table as those gains will be nothing more than inflation taxed away as capital gains, resulting in a massive bleed of buying power. I urge the reader to take caution and consider the possibility and real risk of making huge profits on paper but ending up in a worse financial situation as a result. I do not think that selling assets will help in any way. I do not think that going for the assets with high PE ratios and hoping for them to go even higher will help either. I do not think that gold or silver will save you as they are easy to counterfeit as paper, and impossible to shove down the internet tubes (unless counterfeit). I think the natural response to this should be to take all bets off the economy and move heavily into the competitors to Fiat currency. Bitcoin was specifically designed to consume money markets in times just like these, it is the Great Consumer, and its dinner time. PS: In the linked Ideas I have included a monthly candle chart with the same lines, and the M2SL monetary supply chart with some information.
SP:SPXShort
by FlyTheElephant
3
Make sure you know what you're buyingHave you ever heard of the XRP army? Most likely not, since they no longer exist. Once upon a time there existed a group that believed XRP was going to $589 I believe? Others could say the same about me since I actually believe 1 BTC will = $1,000,000 + I know what I'm buying when I buy bitcoin. Not sure people understand this ada token is but a promise that has now been priced in. Where does price go from here? Who knows. Heck, it could go up more for all I care. The risk vs reward though is atrocious. Early was 1 year ago. Exit liquidity.exe This is the game..
KRAKEN:ADAUSD
by Bohrbtc
4
Precise date for the top of this cycleI thought a bit and found that the cycles are indeed getting longer. First cycle duration is 367 days from the halving date to the top. Halving date was 28th of November 2012, date of top was Nov 30th 2013. The second halving was on July 9th 2016, the top on Dec. 17th 2017. Cycle duration thus 567 days. So: Every cycle is now either 159 days longer than the previous one, or 1.43x longer, should this lengthening ratio continue. This would put the top for this cycle to March 27th 2022 (+159 days each cycle) or June 4th (x1.43 each cycle). I think the top will be at the full 4.236 fibo extension at 300k. I made an overlay of the previous rally from August 2020 to May 2021. The result fits pretty well with the fibo extension and also with the timing. Let's see if this is correct. If yes, most altcoins will see their top earliest in April 2022, or even as late as July 2022. We will soon find out if this theory is correct :)
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
28
Crypto 2022 The 2021 year has passed. In one picture, the results with the % growth of the year. It is all behind us now - history. We are unlikely to see the same top-list next year. So we need to concentrate on the potential projects to get a comparable result. I love my community. I'm sharing my top picks for 2022. No Big Caps Wallet $TGT - twitter.com $XDEFI - twitter.com $BRD - twitter.com Digital credentials $KILT - twitter.com $CHEQ - twitter.com Privacy $SCRT - twitter.com $NYM - twitter.com $ZKP - twitter.com $KMA - twitter.com $CCX - twitter.com $BEAM & $BEAMX - twitter.com AMM & DEX $GNS - twitter.com $SPHRI - twitter.com $XFIT - twitter.com $HFT - twitter.com $WANNA - twitter.com Cross-chain bridge $RELAY - twitter.com $ABR - twitter.com NO TOKEN yet live twitter.com DeFi Investment Banking & Savings $NORD - twitter.com $UMEE - twitter.com $YEL - twitter.com $ICE - twitter.com $TIME - twitter.com $FOX - twitter.com $PARA - twitter.com $SKU - twitter.com $KAR - twitter.com Liquidity $ROSE twitter.com $RUNE twitter.com $VADER twitter.com $SIS twitter.com $BSX twitter.com $BFC twitter.com Lending & Borrowing $GEIST twitter.com $MPL twitter.com $SCREAM twitter.com $OXY twitter.com $WARP twitter.com $SWING twitter.com Yield Aggregator $QUARTZ twitter.com $IDLE twitter.com $RVF twitter.com $RBN twitter.com $CHESS twitter.com $STF twitter.com Derivatives $dYdX twitter.com $VEGA twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com Tokenization $CFG & $AIR twitter.com $COVAL twitter.com $NAOS twitter.com Coding $ISP twitter.com $CTSI twitter.com $RAD twitter.com $BEPRO twitter.com $ASTR twitter.com $XRD twitter.com #Agoric twitter.com EVM $AURORA twitter.com $VLX twitter.com $MOVR twitter.com $SDN twitter.com $GLMR twitter.com $ACALA twitter.com $CLV twitter.com Layer 1 $MTRG twitter.com $SAITO twitter.com $QANX twitter.com $TARA twitter.com $CSPR twitter.com $XRD twitter.com $HTR twitter.com $DUSK twitter.com Layer 2 $BOBA twitter.com $METIS twitter.com $IMX twitter.com $MUTE twitter.com Stablecoins $FXS twitter.com $FLX twitter.com $SILK twitter.com $UXD twitter.com $DJED twitter.com $USDV twitter.com Oracle $LINK twitter.com $API3 twitter.com $KYL twitter.com $UMB twitter.com $LITH twitter.com DATA $OCEAN twitter.com $MDT twitter.com $SWASH twitter.com $KYVE twitter.com Storage & Computing $FLUX twitter.com $STACK twitter.com $AKASH twitter.com $ZCN twitter.com $EPK twitter.com $KHALA & $PHA twitter.com AI services $AGIX twitter.com $SDAO twitter.com $CQT twitter.com $VAI twitter.com Media Content $COS twitter.com $MLT twitter.com $VRA twitter.com $NUM twitter.com Metaverse $GF twitter.com $MC twitter.com $REAL twitter.com $VR twitter.com $MONA twitter.com CEX $WOO twitter.com $LCX twitter.com Best regards EXCAVO
FTX:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
27