Topdownanaylisis
Us30 top down Yellow arrow is start of the pump of price from a level of consolidation. Since the other arrows show three sub levels of rise which market likes to move in. From high zone shows how price on the down move broke structure and now potentially finding liquidity to sell off for the direction price needs to fill lowerrr. Last 4 hour doji is a zone to keep eye on to break high then back under for sells or for that high to respect with new week and sell from. Will have to take a shot either way. My edge will be timing, monitoring the index itself individually, and risk management.
Yen Index - Top Down AnalysisStarting with the 4 hour timeframe, the yen is finally starting to show some life as the oscillators give several indications. On the larger timeframe (reference charts below) you can see we're also testing the descending support. For now, I'm not suggesting a complete a reversal put a possible pullback towards the mid-channel pivot is warranted.
Let's now take a look at the daily timeframe.
== DAILY CHART ==
Taking a look at the daily view, stochastics and RSI are indicating oversold conditions as we approach the descending level of support. We might see a potential pullback up towards the orange area as illustrated on the chart. This would be approx. a 100+ pip bullish upside reward for those that are willing to take on risk at this 6 year low. At this point, overall the trend is bearish until price-action is able to climb above the 200 SMA.
Lastly, let's take a look at the weekly timeframe.
== WEEKLY VIEW ==
The weekly perspective prints price-action testing the lower descending resistance trendline. RSI is also showing some lack of bearish momentum as the oscillator bounced off 30. We still need to wait for MACD to give us some final confirmation before instilling some confidence of a possible pullback. If we get a bullish pullback, monitor the bearish mid-channel pivot for resistance as it coincides with the previous low on the weekly timeframe .
== IN SUMMARY ==
The Japanese's Yen is near a 6 year low as the war between Ukraine and Russia worsens. This doesn't mean however the market will disregard this opportunity to buy low. The overall trend is obviously bearish so for those that are seeking a possible scalp, be sure to position manage the trade as price-action may decide to continue the bearish trend at any given time.
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That's it. That's all. Trade safe. All the best.
Regards,
Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose
CADCHF: Major Trend Line & Confirmation 🇨🇦🇨🇭
Hey traders,
Update for CADCHF pair.
The market has recently dropped to a major rising trend line.
Taking into consideration that the pair is trading in a bullish trend since 2020,
we may catch a trend-following move from that.
Analysing the intraday time frames, follow a falling parallel channel on an hourly time frame.
Its bullish breakout will be your trigger to buy the pair.
First goal will be 0.7275
In case of a bearish breakout of a trend line on a daily a further decline will be expected.
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
[Growthbank] CHFJPY Sell IdeaCHFJPY has been on a consistent uptrend on all of the higher timeframes, and has just now found some resistance. The retracements on the higher timeframes have been around the 61.8% range so that is what we are looking for moving forward. On the daily chart we have broken structure to continue the sell until the end of this overall retracement zone.
Expecations: Market is going to retest the previous break of structure on the daily chart. This zone also has a diagonal daily trendline, an H4 demand zone and a liquidity key level within that zone. Market will snipe the liquidity key level and then continue selling following the rest of the overall markets retracement.
GBPJPY: How to Catch a Bullish Wave 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY is trading in a bullish trend for more than a year.
The price is steadily growing within a major rising parallel channel on a weekly time frame.
Reaching 158.0 level the market started a correctional movement.
The price started to fall within a falling wedge pattern.
Being closer and closer to a support of a major channel the market may start growing soon.
Your confirmation to buy will be a bullish breakout of resistance of the wedge on 4H.
You need at least 4H candle close to confirm the breakout.
Initial goal will be 155.9
In case of a bearish breakout of a support of a weekly channel,
the setup will be invalid and bearish continuation will be expected.
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Bullish Idea on AUMy Top Down Analysis
Daily Time Frame:
Trending upward and waiting for a possible reverse off of my S/R zone (red highlighted box), also waiting for the bounce off my 50 SMA
4HR:
Bounce rejected and bounced off my trend line, currently creating higher highs and higher lows. Also caught a bullish reverse pattern at my zone
1HR and 15 Minute
Price above 9SMA and broke my wedge pattern
Eurjpy we are going downThe area for possible shorts is also a 61.8 fib retracement. Picture explains everything. We have a nice rejection (on trendnline as well) on the last weekly candle too and bearish engulfing on the daily. We need to retrace to 130.500 to find support. New downtrend structure on 1H - 4H
Multi-Time Frame, Price Action Analysis on Japanese YEN StrengthHi everyone:
Many have asked me about the Japanese JPY pairs outlook and forecast, as we can see they are surely gaining strength across the market.
I am personally live in some of the sell and looking to hold the trade as well as scale in on additional trades as well.
Now let's take a look at the pairs that I am currently in, and as well other JPY pairs from a multi-time frame, price action analysis point of view.
I will go over the best ones to look out for, and share my original analysis/forecast before the moves happened.
In addition, my plan on how to manage the current live positions, and plan on how to scale in new entries as well as other pairs.
Starting from the current positions that I am in:
CADJPY: Currently running + 6%, 6:1 RR
Original Analysis/Forecast:
CHFJPY: Currently running + 3.5%, 3.5/1 RR
Original Analysis/Forecast:
GBPJPY: Currently running + 3.5%, 3.5:1 RR
Original Analysis/Forecast:
EURJPY: Got out for +2.8%, 2.8:1 RR
Original Analysis/Forecast:
AUDJPY:
NZDJPY:
USDJPY: 2 entries total for BE
Original Analysis/Forecast:
Any questions, comments and feedback welcome to let me know.
If you like more of these contents, like, subscribe/follow and comment for me to keep doing them. :)
Jojo
NZDUSD SUPPLY ZONE (OB) 10 minPrice is looking to clear the liquidity above and to trigger the supply zone and come back down to clear the rest of the liquidity lying below (arrow with $s) just above imbalance that needs to be filled. If it doesn't hold then it is because the price wants to mitigate a past order block show at the level with the yellow line. The pink shaded area is a higher time frame supply zone (D).
EURUSD - top down analysis Monthly Weekly Daily
Monthly - a long-term channel set in motion in the 2008 crisis now appears to break up. EURUSD traded in its upper part for some time, then, this year, it moved outside and started to consolidate there. There is a potential resistance above 1.22000 which played some role in the past and seems to be respected again.
Conclusion: bullish - traded in the upper part of the value channel for a long time and broke up
Weekly - zooming in on the consolidation after a breakout, the price action appears to be neutral. The price has failed to make a new high (purple circles) but hasn't broken any previous lows yet. EURUSD balances in both upper and lower parts of the value channel equally. Lastly, there is a pin bar with a high volume. This is a clue that the reversal and bullish action are slightly more likely to take place.
Conclusion: neutral - could be very narrowly bullish, but the price has gone furthest outside of the channel since its formation and the reversal sign, the pin bar, has not had any follow-up yet.
Daily - looking at the potential breakout of a new channel, there appear to be several bullish signs. A few pins and a relatively big green bar running on an overwhelming volume. One thing is missing and that is a follow-up or rather lack of it. There is some buying, but the resolve to take the price higher is missing.
Also, look at the purple area. There is a complete absence of any market structure. If the market moves to the upside, it should deliver the price to the top of the area.
Conclusion: somewhat bullish - I will wait for a valid sign to enter the market. It has the potential to turn to the upside. We will be wiser aster Thursday as many events are scheduled then. Either way, from a risk-reward perspective, this is clearly a long opportunity.
CADJPY - top down analysis Monthly, Weekly, Daily
The monthly timeframe reveals a triangle with a downwards Shifting Point of Control (SPOC). The price spends most of the time below SPOC. There is only one pro-longed oscillation above the level which later found resistance at the round number of 100 it failed to hold.
The most recent price action shows a rejection of above-90 levels as sellers took advantage of this price and started pushing CADJPY lower.
March 2020 candle stands out on the volume indicator. The candle itself is smaller than on other pairs. Perhaps, its, because the price was nearing bottom levels, and some investors stayed strong through a stock crash. Should there be another correction on the stock market, CADJPY is likely to go down as it did in the 2008 crisis, from which the pair never recovered. On the other hand, the down candle clearly violates Wyckoff's law of effort vs. result, and to interpret it properly, I will inspect a lower timeframe.
Zooming in on the latest red candles, the weekly chart has all the details. The price attempted to make another higher high after it retraced lower and failed. A lower high was formed instead. Then, the price continued below the support and should create our first lower low at some point. Then, it might or might not retrace back to the structure around 88 which would be my entry if I decided to trade based on this timeframe.
Notice the volume of March 2020 candles. This brings a lot more clarity to the massive volume. Even though there was a lot of selling at a time, buyers were stalwart-strong and did not let the pair go lower. A takeaway from this is that although stock market drops will increase the selling activity on CADJPY, it probably isn't the best pair to speculate on during the crisis, because there are many willing to defend it.
Look right and see the red "M". This is my note table. I created a red "M" to remember that the Monthly timeframe looks bearish. As we move towards daily, a gray "W" will appear on the chart. The weekly timeframe is bearish, but a retracement to the structure around 88 is expected. On top of that, selling now would be chasing the price and that is wrong!
The daily chart brings bad news as it shows that the would-be weekly entry level has already been retested. That was the best possible entry in advance of the coming downtrend. I missed it myself. The best we can hope for is that the price comes back closer to the second Lower High. The entry does not have to be perfect - a monthly chart is on our side too. But it definitely has to be good. Not bad, not slightly bad. It needs to be good!
The volume-based analysis involves one high-volume candle which definitely violates Wyckoff's effort-result law. The price movement isn't as big as it should be based on consumed volume. However, I think the volume supports my analysis later and the most recent price action is always the most relevant, also.
Look at the 5 last days. With the exception of Friday, the volume has increased every day and the price movement to the downside increased as well. This means that new bears are entering the arena and the trend has just started. If there is a retracement (and an entry opportunity), it shouldn't beat the biggest red candles volume-wise - but that is up to future analysis.
Keep in mind that the price hit 200 daily Exponential Moving Average today. That could lead to an opportunity.
"D" on the chart will be slightly red. I expect more selling, but the price has already dropped a lot, and it is on 200 EMA. It may retrace this week.
Potential entry
I left the purple area on the chart. That's an entry I would like to take if the price gets back up. A candlestick reversal formation needs to appear before entering short. Pinbar, engulfing or even three-bar rejections are ok.
MULTIPLE TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS/TOPDOWN ANALYSIS
What is multiple timeframe analysis?
What is a top-down analysis?
Most technical traders in the financial markets(crypto, forex, etc) whether they are novices or seasoned pros, have come across the concept of multiple timeframe analyses in their educations.
However, multiple timeframe analysis is often the first level of analysis to be forgotten when a trader pursues an edge over the market.
Multiple timeframe analysis involves monitoring the same currency/crypto pair across different timeframes.
While there is no real limit as to how many timeframes can be monitored, or which ones to choose, there are general guidelines that we should follow as a trader. Using three different timeframes gives a broader view of any market.
Using fewer than this can result in a considerable loss of data while using more typically provides redundant analysis and
indecision. When choosing the three timeframes, a simple method can be followed. this rule has been developed and shared among our students, be it day traders, swing trader, or position trader the rule is applied to help the trader pick his/her best timeframe for top-down analysis