Gold getting ready for the next rally#XAUUSD:
(1D):
We still have a strong bullish trend in place. Recently we saw the break and retest of the continuation pattern here above. Given these technicals and the overall fundamental uncertainty across the globe, my bullish bias remains unchanged.
(4H):
A better view of bulls gaining strenght is given by the ascending channel formed on the 4H, with price currently at the lower border, preparing the next rally.
(1H):
This is confirmed on the lower timeframe, as we can notice that buyers are making higher highs but sellers are not able to push the price, making equal highs. What we want to see, is a break and retest of the ascending channel. This would give us a nice buy signal
Topdownanaylisis
Eur/Usd: 1 Hour Chart - Oct. 12 2020 ShortAfter gapping down at the weekly open, the Euro tested 1.18300 (last weeks high) after a FBO of the consolidation range (1.18100-1.18200). The market then dropped into the 4 hourly support region (1.17800-1.1800) and has retraced to the lower end of our initial consolidation range (1.18100-1.18150). According to our fibonacci wave count, a rejection of this region will take the Euro back to daily support (1.18000-1.17900 or (EI)), if support breaks the Euro can retrace further towards channel support && demand levels ((EII) or 1.17800-1.17300 region).
CONFLUENCES:
*Rejected weekly gap down
*Creating lower lows on hourly
*4 hour bearish candle wick vulnerable
*Buyers momentum receeding above 1.1800
GBPCHF Buy Setupon DAILY: this pair is sitting around support so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
on H1: GBPCHF formed an objective symmetrical triangle using RichTL indicator, so we are waiting for our trigger to buy.
We are waiting for a momentum candle close above the last swing (gray area) to buy this one.
Best of luck!
(Part I) EUR/USD Top-Down analysis with Wyckoff and Elliott WaveHi Traders and welcome to this analysis. My name is Shayan and today I will be taking a detailed look at EUR price action vs. USD.
I use Eliott Wave (EW) to better find out our location in the market cycle, and get a sense of possible wave counts,
but my main focus is on Wyckoff based Supply and Demand Analysis
In part 1, today, we will look at the monthly and weekly views to establish the long-term and medium-term trends,
and we will study the daily and 4H PA in a future post in order to create multiple set-ups, so stay tuned!
Let's start with a long term view of the market, starting year 2000:
We can see a clear 5 wave impulse ending with the 2008 market depression. And the 3 wave correction that follows.
As per EW guideline, the correction is bound within a corrective channel, and has traveled to the 0.236 Fib level of the preceding impulse
Let's look at the correction in more details:
There are two themes at play here:
1 - The corrective count: ABC created by a zigzag + a weak ABC (or wave X) before conception of new impulse + holding wave 2 of the preceding impulse
2 - We have hit the long-term target of a long-term classical formation (the apex) and have not been able to commit below this level (the blue ribbon)
Both these themes are constructive and point to higher prices
Now that we have an idea of the possible wave count, let's take a more detailed look using Wyckoff supply and demand analysis: (this is the title chart)
This chart is annotated in sequence, so you can start with number 1 in the left side and follow the price action.
As I mentioned in #7 above, there is a possibility that price resolves lower and created a Backing Up action (BU) at around 1.15 - 1.16. This could confirm the
uptrend continuation or fail and test a lower level.
Our targets are for now previous swing highs at 1.25 and 1.4.
I will also add a PnF based target in the next article to have a more reliable metric for targetting!
So that's it for today. Our long-term and medium-term trends are up, but short-term is not so clear yet. A test of lower levels is possible, or
on a more bullish view, this could lead to a vertical absorption and skip the correction!
If you liked my analysis or are following through, please give it a thumbs up! I put a lot of work in my analysis and your support will let TradingView know my articles are helpful!
USDJPYMarket has been in a range for quite a while -
- Sellers were able to push prices downwards beyond the support and reached the 104.200 level, a retracement followed to the past support area & now resistance also is 61% area in the Fibonacci . Buyers tried to break that area but it holds strong and seems to be heading down again to the 104.200 support area.
Selling Area - below 105.500
Target - 104.48
Stop - 106.10
NZD/USD Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair NZD/USD.
Let's start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: A strong trendline was identified in the monthly timeframe.
Weekly: Weekly is overall bearish.
Daily: Daily is bullish but because of the confirmations from monthly and H4 we are bearish.
H4: We see a counter trendline and a breakout. That's the final confirmation for a bearish trend.
Have a nice day.
DXY Price PossibilitiesHello there,
Using my technical analysis, DXY has a good opportunity to go up. On the weekly TF i saw a respected ascending Trendline, even though it's not really that bullish. Yea, it got fakeouts but the last 2 touches on the line didn't break the trendline. I personally don't wanna execute our trade right now. I prefer to wait for the price to retest either to the Demand Zone/Trendline.
Possibilites to go LONG:
1. Price breaks the Descending Channel and bounces from the mini H4 Supply Zone - retest the Trendline/Demand zone.
2. Price directly retest the Trendline/Demand zone.
BUT. There're also possibilites for the DXY to go down, which is Fundamentals.
1. Because of the global pandemic, people will tend to invest their money in GOLD/XAUUSD. Which left the DXY&USD price falls. Correlation isn't really a thing here, because neither the XAU/USD & DXY is strongly correlated.
Summary:
From technical analysis side which tells the DXY will rise, possibilites is it will be a retracement. And thanks to Technical Analysis we got a chance to enter the DXY market and take advantage of the retracement.
Look out for the price action which will tell more information about the price.
Thanks for reading,
Cheers :D