Topdownanaylisis
USDJPY- Ascending Channel Retracement Short Opportunity!-Very good selling opportunity of the rests of the support of the channel.
-There is a confluence with the support of the channel and the demand turned supply zone which shows price could potentially react from that zone.
-Another confluence is that the 38.2% fib level is line with the supply zone which gives me more confidence price cill reach that level and retrace.
-The 50EMA is above price which indicates that it is a bearish trend and to look for selling opportunity for this pair.
-We could see a potential breakout of the 106.985 level if price does not reach that zones.
-I will look to enter only when I see a strong bearish candle confirmation for me to enter the trade.
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-Have a good trading week!
EURUSD - Swing Trade ideaEURUSD we are creating higher highs and higher lows on the Daily, which indicates that we are in an uptrend, so we are looking for buying opportunities. However we don't want to buy just anywhere. Buy low & Sell high. Prive has just reached a sensitive point from where we saw a major rejection around 2 months ago. I am expecting price to create a retracement from this area into our daily flipzone (the green box) where i will be looking for buying opportunities to continue the move up. I have also set out 2 different take profit levels that we can look at. If we move down to the H1 chart and we see lower lows and lower highs are being created, then we can look to sell into that daily buy zone as this will indicate a short term downtrend. However don't just sell at the top, wait for a short term downtrend to form on the H1 chart.
EUR/USDGood Day Everyone!
Made some analysis regarding EUR/USD.
Color Legend:
Purple - Monthly
Blue - Weekly
Red - Daily
Green - 4 Hour
White - 1 Hour
To get "straight" to the point.
First look on the daily is showing us a strong Up trend, confirmed by a cross of the 200 EMA. Now ideally we can wait for a re-test of that area,
the Daily closing candle is a Inverted Hammer/Shooting star. Usually a sign of a trend reversal, I'd wait for a confirmation of the uptrend, although I'm confident in its continuation.
Regarding the Daily, a retracement is possible, and expected, to confirm the trend.
We closed the 4H with a doji/spinning top. Sign of an undecisive market. 4H showing clearer sign of a possible retrace towards 1,10640
The 1H is showing us an inclination to a continuation of the Bullish sentiment. We closed with a Inverted Hammer. It's a clear sign of a reversal, possible retrace.
Expecting to retrace to 1,10640 as mentioned before, after finding support it is expected to continue in the upward move.
On the 30min we can see 2 tweezer tops. Confirming the previous bullish sentiment and a trend continuation.
Pivots are supporting the expected move towards 1,10640 - 1,10675 as there is a S1 Pivot Support on the hourly in those areas.
Please DO leave a comment, if you see it differently or if you agree. Possibly if i missed something feel free to leave a comment!
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GBPJPY AT KEY HORIZONTAL STRUCTUREThe pair has reached a massive horizontal structure on the daily timeframe, which can be seen below.
The setup might give grounds for a long from within the structure, but a great deal of attention is to be paid to the price action within the supporting structure.
I will be monitoring the pair closely.
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Wish you all luck in your trading.
EURAUD POTENTIAL SHORT| MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSISAs I have already mentioned, in my previous analysis of the pair, the link to which you can find below, there was a potential for returning into the massive diagonal channel, which can be seen on the daily chart attached.
The return into the channel was confirmed by the daily candle closing inside the channel, below the resistance area, which gives us a short opportunity.
Current 1.6846 level, is not a good one to go short in terms of risk reward, for I expect the pair to find support in the middle of the channel, at around the take2 area. The support line is shown in the blue. There is also a horizontal structure at this level.
So, I will be waiting for the pair to bounce back, from a small horizontal support it has found. To the levels that are indicated by the arrows.
You might choose to enter the short piecemeal, adding to the position as the pair goes higher. This way you will get a good average price.
The first take is 1:1 risk reward, as always. The second take level I've discussed above already.
I will be monitoring the price action closely.
On a side note, one might actually go long now, and ride the bounce up, to the short levels, but I will not be doing that.
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Wish you all luck in your trading!
AUD/NZD WEEKLY CHANNEL RESISTANCE AND STRUCTUREThe pair has reached the resistance area of a massive downward channel it was trading in for the last 3 years.
The resistance line is porous, and is more of an area though, which can be seen by the spikes of the weekly candle shadows spanning way outside the channel borders. The horizontal structure to the left helps us determine the potential area of resistance where the upward move can be reversed.
I will be watching the price action closely to determine entry points.
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CAD/CHF TOP DOWN ANALYSIS|SHORT BIASI am waiting for a breakout in one direction or the other, on the daily, which you can see below.
On a lower timeframes I am expecting a downward move and the upward channel/bear flag support line retest.
Remember, that we are trading confirmed breakouts only, and after a pullback, so that we could have a nice risk reward profile.
I am somewhat short biased, to be honest.
Trading daily timeframes is preferable, for it allows one to realize proper volumes, being able to enter the position piecemeal, accumulating the volume with limit orders, getting a nice average entry price. A nice tip for anyone with a somewhat decent account size(above 500k USD at least)
The spread is less sensitive for you in that case too. But remember, that long term positions can screw you with the swaps costs.
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CAD/CHF LONG - TOP DOWN ANALYSISCAD/CHF pair seems to have broken a support line on daily.
On a lower timeframe it has found a local support line, from which it has bounced.
I am a bit late to the long party, but if there is a pullback to the support, I will go long.
Going long now does not make sense risk-reward wise.
The first take is at a level where there was a small range to the left, and also, where the spot is likey to hit the broken daily support line, which has turned into resistance now.
Take 2 is at the resistance line to the left.
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EURAUD LONG| TOP DOWN ANALYSIS | KEY DECISION LEVEL|
The weekly timeframe the pair has returned to the line of the massive channel of which it has broken out.
The 4 hour and 1 hour time-frames both point to that the pair in on a decision level.
there was a false breakout on the 4 hour chart and now I am long biases.
If the daily candle closes below the level, then I will be shorting the pair mid-term assuming it has returned into the channel.
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EUR/GBP LOCAL LONG-TOP DOWN ANALYSIS Eur/gbp pair might present a local long opportunity with a small stop, hence giving a good risk reward profile.
Should the price action go the way it is shown by the arrows the first target is certain to be hit, so unload half of your position there.
I will update the idea in case that happens, to assess the setup and decide wether to hold the position further and be waiting for the second target.
The stop should be right below the support line at about 0.87338
The second target is right at the border of the massive channel that the pair has been trading in for the past four years, which is in itself contained within an even larger channel, both are visible on a weekly timeframe.
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EUR NZD Top down AnalysisMonthly Chart: At a monthly resistance area 1.85389 after being on solid uptrend. Currently Monthly Candle is a large selling candle but this could just be a pullback. With only a few more days left in the month, I will have this pair under close watch knowing we are at a key monthly area
Weekly Chart: Price recent burst above the resistance area before reversing back down on the weekly chart but does not drop below the 50ema giving me a bullish bias still on this pair. There is a weekly SR lvl that price is currently respecting above the monthly SR area giving us further bullish bias. Price on the weekly is currently in a downtrend illustrated by the downward trend line but on the weekly time A fib tool was drawn from the recent swing low to the swing high to confirm price is currently in between 0.5-0.618 retracement level meaning this could just be a pullback and price could continue its uptrend. Need confirmation using price action data to verify pullback
Daily Chart: The daily candle is showing a bullish flag pattern. On the daily charts we see price is currently near the 50ema for the daily while also respecting the newly formed SR area. Am now looking for the of flag pattern and confirmation on all time frames before entry
USD/CHF Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair USD/CHF.
Let's start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: The monthly timeframe is in a clear downtrend.
Weekly: Weekly is bearish too.
Daily: On daily the price goes up and down (LL,HH,HL,LH) but generally the chart is bearish.
H4: We see here a counter trendline. We expect a push to the low 0.95143.
Have a nice day.
NZD/USD Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair NZD/USD.
Let's start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: The monthly timeframe is bearish.
Weekly: Weekly is in a downtrend too.
Daily: We can see a reverse since march 19th.
H4: On the h4 timeframe we draw the counter trendline. A push to the lows is expected.
Have a nice day.
EUR/USD Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair EUR/USD.
Let's start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: The monthly timeframe is in a strong downtrend.
Weekly: Weekly is bearish too. From February 24th to March 30th there was a massive price action.
Daily: If we don't go back too far on the chart we see a LL, HH, LL and a HL. This confirms the downtrend in the short term.
H4: We see on the H4 timeframe a counter trendline break and i expect a push to the lows.
Have a nice day.
GBP/USD Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair GBP/USD.
Let's start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: Monthly is bearish.
Weekly: Weekly is in a downtrend.
Daily: Daily is bearish but the price has retracted.
H4: There is a counter trendline. We see a push to the low.
Have a nice day.
NZD/USD Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair NZD/USD.
Let's start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: We see on the monthly timeframe a strong downtrend.
Weekly: NZD/USD break the low from 2015 and retraced itself a little bit to the upside.
Daily: Daily is bearish too.
H4: Here we see a counter trendline and a breakout. We expect a push to the low.
Have a nice day.
AUD/USD Trade Idea Hello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair AUD/USD.
Let's start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: The monthly timeframe is bearish.
Weekly: We see on the weekly timeframe a very strong bearish trend.
Daily: Daily shows a push to the upside.
H4: On the h4 timeframe we can recognize a counter trendline and expect a push to the low.
Have a nice day.