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Toppingpattern

Speculation to correction risk: COSTNASDAQ:COST was over-speculated by retail groups. Extreme angles of ascent do not hold. The severity of the recent angle of ascent due to speculation warned well ahead of time that COST would have a meltdown when buyers evaporated. The first strong support level is at the black line. The Weekly chart shows stronger runs up than down. Costco is frequently speculated as there are retail gurus and chatroom groups, etc. that run the stock up from time to time. However, this stock is absurdly overpriced at this level and needs to do a split.
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
MCD: Buy on the dip risk for selling shortThis stock has dipped and slid through its support, which was not a strong support level. There is minimal support nearby. And the support above is now a moderate resistance level. There was some mild rotation in the Volume Oscillator and Money Flow indicator patterns followed by pro traders selling. The reversal candlestick pattern failed. However, the risk for selling short is the retail investors and their investment group gurus advising to buy on the dip. Today's candle has buy on the dippers in the mix.
NYSE:MCD
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Overextended? Broke over 0.618 RetracementPushing over top of Bolly Band. 400 pips above the 50DMA. Last time we saw this it gave up 100 pips in 2 days. But it could still go to the 0.786, another 100 pips above. After a melt-up like this the price may continue to creep higher for days, then give a retracement, printing a 'fishhook'. PA on 6/15 was astonishing. Opened and closed twice thinking; "That was the top!" then watched in amazement as it bulled another 20 pips... twice. Blowoff top?! Short-killing, massively overbought condition. Buying up here is unlikely to be rewarding... but shorting it here could be even more disappointing. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would bring it to a full stop, eh? Would not short on a Friday, even triple witching. Early chop could give way to another leg up... If price prints a bull flag in early trade, as it did Thursday, could get another massive short-covering rally EOD. The rally in tech issues may be nearly done. Extremely overbought conditions with some issues (MSFT, AAPL) printing new ATH, trillion dollar caps... frothy exuberance. The broader market has lagged tech until this week. Rotation in and out of small caps smacks of speculative manipulation. Expect more of the same in the coming days. Yesterday's winners become tomorrow's losers. Trading tops is tricky. Maybe better to stay in cash until we get a pivot signal imo. Standing in front of this train has been a poor strategy but could pay soon... due for a correction imo. When it comes it will be as surprising and astonishing as this rally... back over the same range. Again.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
4
MSFT - looking precarioussigns looks toppish at the moment as has been whipping up and down the 200 day moving average for the past 3 months. Could continue to range between 272 - 315 (give or take several points) for another few weeks or even months until it breaks either way. watching 272 which was the support for the past 2 months, each test at this support will bring in less and less bulls. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Cheers.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Juliac
A Total Market continuation patternLooking at the Total US Stock Market (VTI), we can see an obvious arching formation to the Covid-crater rebound, like the decaying upward trajectory of a thrown ball. This trend is characterized by short intervals of consolidation followed by breakouts that exert less upward momentum than the prior breakout. Each of those consolidation phases knocks the rebound's trajectory down a notch, manifest as a lessening of its slope angle, as depicted above. If that pattern continues, this post presents a trend range we might see. Big picture, this arching over probably is not a prelude to an end-of-the-world crash but a gradual slope correction into a long-term trajectory matching the long-term pre-Covid slope. Since March 2020, the upward slope of the US market has been exceptionally steep, too steep to sustain. So the market has to correct and the pattern of consolidation followed by lesser breakouts seen above is a predictable necessary process of correcting the market into its less steep long-term trajectory (which I've shown in other ideas posted). The arch is 'the invisible hand' dialing back the post-Covid crater exuberance.
AMEX:VTILong
by iGoddard
1
Possible EWT pattern. Good short once it completesThe June decline appeared to be impulsive, given the 3 consecutive lower lows. But because the beginning of that decline was taken out, that leaves a flat on the table (3-3-5 structure). I suspected that from the beginning because the last wave was not a clean impulse, which meant it is likely a b-wave low. This looks to be an ED (ending diagonal), or the entire big B wave could be a triangle. Doesn't really matter which is which at this point, as once it completes, we should see a C wave lower, taking off at least the A low (3000). I expect it to go much lower to be honest (2850 would be my 1st target, 2650 my 2nd one).
FX:SPX500Short
by alx13
ES1 (S&P500 futures) just topped out!Just happened minutes ago, the topping pattern of a High, Low, Lower High, Lower Low, Lower High, and then a Lower Low just completed and then it gave up and did a huge Markdown. MACD has given an earlier indication of a drop, after pattern completion. THIS IS a topping pattern, and it is of high probability that the S&P500 topped out. Now waiting for it to continue the downward momentum and break the trend line support. But not before a rather lame attempt on daily charts next week to recover somewhat and reverse down again. Watch for it...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
MSFT: Bear Market Risk Increases on Chinese Manufacturing NewsMicrosoft has been under heavy distribution and has begun a risk of top formation. The markets opened with a downside gap this morning due to Chinese markets imploding. This is a high risk factor for a potential bear market catalyst. Any US company that has a high revenue source from China is at risk of serious downside runs during such a crisis and for as long as the Trade Wars between these two nations continue. Sell Shorters will use this gap at open as a level to buy to cover for profits. IF the retail crowd does panic quickly, then it will be a rout. For now MSFT is at risk of breaking to the downside. The Top formation is a Rounding Top, which is harder for most technical traders to recognize before completion. The support is strong between $86 – 98, which was a trading range from earlier this year. The stronger volume on down weeks and declining Accumulation/Distribution indicator show heavy large-lot selling over the past couple of months. The stock’s bounce risk levels are black lines on this weekly chart.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
TGT, BBY Earnings: Retail Brick & Mortar Topping Patterns Target and Best Buy reported earnings today and their stock values fell, TGT worse than BBY. The retail brick and mortar stores are the last group to report each season. The ubiquitous AMZN has put most of this type of store at risk of total displacement as consumers prefer the ease and speed of online shopping over driving to a store. Technical patterns are even more important in a downtrend as the 3 primary market participant groups that sell short are technically oriented rather than fundamentalist or emotional buyers or sellers. Study both weekly and daily charts before you choose stocks to sell short, in order to calculate potential support bounce levels, and to anticipate how far a stock can drop. This is one of the newer topping formations that developed in the past few years as the market became fully automated for the Institutions.
NYSE:TGT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Earnings Stock of the Day: ESNTEssent Group LTD is in the Financial Services Sector under Specialty Finance. This is a relatively new industry that is going to have growth in the next decade as more specialty finance services companies go to IPO. The opportunities come from Cloud Technology’s second phase of new displacement technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence. ESNT is working on a bottoming formation after a correction from a recent high. It attempted to fill the gap down caused by HFTs gapping the stock in April of this year. The rectangle on the chart is when this stock had potential for a watchlist candidate as a Shift of Sentiment™ pattern occurred. The stock peaked and topped in 2018. The pattern is still at risk for more downside and is not a watchlist candidate at this time, but it is reporting earnings today. The stock must complete this bottom formation and then challenge the previous highs to resume an uptrend. That will take time.
NYSE:ESNT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Trading Bottom/Top Finder Bitmex XBTUSD Bitcoin SignalsBottom / Top Finder just gave the signal to go long a couple hours ago, and already have topped out over a 4.0 risk/return ratio! With no top signal yet, we are holding the position for proper exit. Both false signals shown could have been exited in profit but since the indicator did not signal it, we consider it a stop loss hit for those 2. (17/19 correct is pretty good - 89% win rate!) As you can see if you zoom in - marked entry/exit targets are not based on absolute high/low of the candle. I try to place them in a somewhat realistic context to show more accurate results (what a concept!). Trials are available, and we are currently running a 25% off sale! (no subscriptions - you buy it - you own it FOR LIFE!). Bottom Top Finder 2.7 will be released next week adding more user customization and multiple time frame signals!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by theheirophant
Failed rally here could be a market topping actionNo rally lasts forever unless it is the Zimbabwean style i.e. hyper-inflationary sort of rally. We can carry on looking for long entries but some effort should be put on to spot danger signs. Current price action could be a consolidation for higher gain or topping action for correction/reversal. Higher gain could use current action as a base or support. Topping action could use current action as a resistance. If the index falls below green zone, it will look like a failed rally. Green zone will then become a resistance zone and the whole action looking like a Triple Top. Traders interested could look up 'Wyckoff Market Cycle. Just saying.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by colonelkink
UPDATE on MY EUROUSD SHORTWell,has been tough these last two days. After I have been shorting Euro like crazy it rose more than one figure. That hurts!!!! But I still stick to the fact that we have a major top and remain short. I post the weekly chart and that blue line you see comes from the Monthly chart and I pulled it from the very top. It is the secular downtrend line. My point is that the volatility and the volumes we see at these levels are typical of a top formation. If we break that blue line and close two consecutive days above it I will have to reconsider and my G.. stop my shorts (uuuuh painful). Today Europeans tried to go beyond 1.25 in early morning but it stayed above for very little, then all day until the figures I could see that buyers had no strenght for another attempt...1.2497 has been holding. So I expect that by Europe close other sales will come in as this week long will capitulate and close positions before the start of the weekend (many are doing it now, and I am talking about the big guys that take large positions, hedge funds and financial institution traders...what I was in the past... big, arrogant and dumb :-)). I would not be surprised to see a drop to 1.24 by tonight. Anyway. My point is the big picture and believe that the risk is on the downside, these are the last days of the Bullish Euro. I cannot add the RSI indicator but a weekly divergence is underway and if the indicator moves below 70 the price will drop heavily. Have a nice weekend for those who care. For info I hope to activate my blog Teforecaster.eu by next week but will post here too.
Short
by TheForecaster