BTCUSDT Price USDT.D percentage 28 sep 2020
usdt.d : 4.69 btcusdt : 10480
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15 feb 2021
usdt.d: 1.99 btcusdt : 57400
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12 jul 2021
usdt.d:4.82 btcusdt : 31750
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8 nov 2021
usdt.d:2.58 btcusdt : 65345
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21 feb 2022
usdt.d:4.83 btcusdt : 36500
2 questions.
Where did usdt.d
come from?
then what
happened to btc?
find the answer
Total
Bitcoin | At a historic crossroads!Hello dear TradingView Crypto Savvy,
If you want the best-modeled full history view of Bitcoin price action with insights for the next few years, you have opened the right idea. Today's update is a more sober follow up to last year's tongue-in-cheek long term view of Bitcoin price action modeled against Stock to Flow. If you are not aware of Stock to Flow and how it is the best predictor available for Bitcoin price performance, please see my related idea.
Today's idea adopts a bollinger band style view of stock to flow, where I have carefully tweaked the model to precisely fit the last decade of price action. You have never seen a better view of Bitcoin's long term price! We are looking back at the $2 days and forward to the next halving. The most recent Bitcoin mining block reward halving occurred May 11, 2020 and prompted the most recent bull run, as other halvings have done in the past. There is a growing delay from the halving date to the all-time-high date for a cycle, which I have highlighted on the chart.
This delay points to the possibility of the high for this cycle being in the future. I project sometime later this year or early next year.
"Wow, that's great!" I hear you say... but wait.
I mentioned a historic crossroads in the title, so that must mean there's a catch, right? Right. Well look at the orange line I have drawn. That represents the long term support line for a "truly" logarithmic growth, as we are looking at a logarithmic chart. Notice how we were riding close to that support just before the Third Halving in 2020, and the Pandemic Panic actually brought us far south of it for a brief snapshot in time.
The halving snapped us out of bearish doldrums and we wound up with a perfect storm for the last two years of bullish on-ramps to broad institutional adoption. We started 2021 with Bitcoin dominance ( BTC.D ) at it's highest point in years and the crypto market as a whole smashing through $1 Trillion USD market capitalization . Then in 2021 something remarkable happened.
2021 saw DeFi frenzy and the rapid capitalization of newer Layer 1 Cryptos. Bitcoin dominance plummeted to near all time lows and has stayed there til today. Yet Bitcoin still reached a new high as the total crypto market had a historic rally to $3 Trillion in November 2021. Then the correction came.
The crypto total cap now four months later sits 40% below the peak of November 2021. The last six weeks of sideways price action have suggested to some that the bottom has been found, but has it?
To inform an answer to that question, let us take the best tool we have for modeling Bitcoin's long term price, Stock to Flow, and use it as a guide. We will use it as a backbone and make some adjustments based on the insights that we are finding are shaking up the future of the crypto market.
What are those key insights?
DeFi and newer Layer 1 Cryptos are pushing Bitcoin dominance towards new all time lows
Bitcoin has become a household name around the world. It is solidly an institutionalized asset now. It represents a non-negligible percentage of global GDP.
Before the last halving, Bitcoin was already losing steam against its long term logarithmic growth support
All of these factors point in the same direction: slowed growth for Bitcoin. Now let's reference the big red line on my chart. Based on these insights, this is the growth curve that I am fairly confident will hold until the next halving in 2024. What does that tell us about our choices today?
Well that is our catch. For the next few months, our current price is above the long term support curve I have drawn based on those insights. This curve has been tested, and in the worst circumstances briefly broken, every halving cycle so far. There is not yet confirmation of a trend reversal, and we are seeing suspiciously little volume the last couple of months. My estimate of a future date for a peak this cycle is very loose and it could well be ahead in 2023, so that gives about a year for a low to be found before we try for the true high of this cycle.
Current geopolitical volatility opens the opportunity for further "black swan" events briefly pushing us below our new red support trend line. This suggests the possibility of a low between $32K, in normal circumstances, and $22K in the worst circumstances before we find the high for this halving cycle.
Now let's look back at our orange line. The correction has brought us below it for the second time ever, and our insights point to it never being respected again. Yet there is still hope for a higher peak this cycle, and we have a new more-informed and better-fitting curve that's ready to be tested for a fit to the next two halvings. This confluence of factors is why we are at such a historic crossroads!
Just because the orange line isn't being respected as a support, doesn't mean it is no longer in play. I suspect we may see it touched one or two more times as a resistance (and maybe once briefly as a support) before we fall further away from it. This leaves a small window open for my previous prediction of a peak this cycle above $200K.
What other insights can we gain from this fully zoomed out view and our new collection of insights? Well they suggest that another Layer 1 crypto may be neck and neck in capitalization with BTC within a couple of years. ETH is the obvious candidate, and has been gaining ground slowly and consistently since 2019. It also has major upgrades planned for maturity this year which could completely change the game on its costs and scalability, potentially unleashing a new trend of accelerated growth versus BTC. A win for ETH is not a guarantee though.
Other Layer 1 networks have gained ground at a record pace beginning in 2021. Terra has rapidly emerged as the front runner, largely driven by the intrinsic appeal of having built the first demonstrably well pegged DeFi stablecoin with TerraUSD , with the cherry on top being the stable 20% APY offered by Anchor staking. Competition will be stiff though, with many other contenders looking for an edge. DeFi robustness, low costs, security, usability, scalability, etc. all have to align in just the right way for a winner to emerge. I suspect we will see a clear front-runner in the next couple of years though.
How does this full picture inform our crypto strategy today? Personally, I'm significantly reducing my focus on BTC holdings, adding more ETH holding, and dedicating significant time and energy to get a big picture view of the competitive landscape for DeFi-ready Layer 1 Cryptos. What is your focus and do you have a favorite Layer 1? Let me know in the comments who you think the winners will be and why!
If you appreciate my analysis and would like to see more in the future, please like and follow!
With that all said, this is not investment advice. I am offering my ideas for educational purposes only. Enjoy and take care.
Total Market Cap Blood Has Been SpilledAll of Crypto has been in an absolute free fall the last few days.
Between Luna and the Stable Coin catastrophe, the entire crypto space is in disarray.
FUD is at an all-time high, and many people have lost their entire life savings.
A massive Head & Shoulders pattern has been completed and the measured move down from the break is 49.90% .
That puts the Total Market Cap around 424 Billion.
Short-term relief is possible, but the general direction seems clear.
Im finding a lot of confluence in the September/August time, I believe this will likely set a potential bottom.
Total crypto market cap analysis , what is the next step .. DLT's blockchain's and #cryptography is going to #develop more faster than before ..
#Defi create new values on industry and today we saw a huge experience with #terra ecosystem ! we could see positive and negative side effect of this incident in the industry ! it can improve governance and #DAO more faster , and also negative effect on adaptation period . #NFT's and utility tokens made the industry more impower . so it going to growth in this $BTC halving cycle !
@TOTAL2 UPDATE !!Welcome to this quick update on the TOTAL2 analysis.
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart.
A very good position for ALTS!!
As we can see a total 2 is currently trading inside the symmetrical triangle pattern on a lower trend line support.
Here it's also evident that a total 2 whenever touches the lower trend line support it bounces well.
So here I am expecting a bounce and break to this triangle pattern which will be good for ALT coins entry.
Sorry for my English it is not my native language.
If you like it, hit the like button and share your charts in the comments section.
Thank you...
📊weekly overview of crypto market(May 9,2022)📊 🤗😉 What sup GUYS!? 🤘✌️
- in this overview I analyzed both 'Bitcoin' and 'Ethereuem' situation and 'TOTAL market cap' and 'TETHER Dominance' and the possible scenarios
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👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
💜 if you're a fan of my analyses PLZ follow me ,give a big thumbs 👍 and drop comment 🗯💭
🚨📛How long will the liquidity leave the crypto market❓❗ 😳🤗😉 What sup GUYS!? 🤘✌️
Also, the situation of the TOTAL index is similar to Bitcoin, which we see in since the last 6-7 weeks, a large capital of over 600-700 billion dollars has left the crypto market and is now traded under the ichimoku cloud and Pivot area . And as long as it does not return to the top of the pivot zone, it can be shrinked more to the lower support zones! which is in fact scary scenario for crypto market ,
maybe this is the game or war of the whales and at lower support we will defiantly see entry of huge amount of liquidity to the crypto market again in this case .
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👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
💜 if you're a fan of my analyses PLZ follow me ,give a big thumbs 👍 and drop comment 🗯💭
Breaks of a Parabolic TrendRight now we are experiencing bearish action which will ultimately result in a break of this parabolic trend, this might seem grim, however the past two times have led to a recovery of the trend
This might occur again and the bull market will resume.
The white zones of the RSI are the break points of the Trend
I am suggesting a further down move, but a stronger recovery to follow this.
I do not believe the Bull market is completely over. Perhaps im a permabull.
TOTAL - A Bigger Fall May Be ComingThe dotted trendline is a trendline that extends to the beginning of this ticker (TOTALMCAP)
Just as it did in the first situation, price fell below this line, and then attempted to retest, causing a large rejection
This is very similar to what is happening now
Comparable moves are around -60% on the TOTALCAP
Crypto Total outlookso this one is really interesting for me, i dont know this kind of volume analyze works on total cap or not, but if so
1- negative outlook :
it can be 1/2 to 1/10 of what it is now, scary head and shoulder is forming (i dont trust in patterns anymore) if so the great depression in crypto market happens, lot a coins will disappear (recently mr buffett said i wont buy all the bitcoins for 25$) but you know no one can predict the future in my opinion so it would be better to work with strong possibilities.
2- positive outlook :
it move from here to 1.88T, then more volume that can push it to higher highs, thats it
also you can check the option orders of coin
www.barchart.com
and search alot about fundamentals if you want to put your money.
TOTAL MARKET CAP IMPORTANT UPDATE MUST READ!!Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities.
Do consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange.
I post short mid and long-term trade setups too.
Let’s get to the chart!
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart, Do not consider it as an
Financial advice.
TOTAL MARKET UPDATE
If you look closely at the liquidity of the market, it seems that they are made of a special mathematical function. The volume of capital input has experienced very good growth since the beginning of 2021.
The price is moving in the form of a long-term uptrend channel and now we are at the bottom of the channel. We expect it to continue to grow like the previous rally.
1. First rally: Starting from 500 billion to 2500 billion ( +2000 billion )
First Correction:Starting from 2500 billion to 1190 billion ( -1310 billion )
2 Second really: Starting from 1190 billion to 3000 billion ( +1810 billion )
Second Correction:Starting from 3000 billion to 1840 billion ( -1160 billion )
3. Third Correction: Starting from 1840 billion to 3700 billion ( -1905 billion )
This chart is likely to help you in making better trade decisions if it did consider upvoting this chart.
Would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
#TOTAL2 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS Welcome to this quick update on the TOTAL2 analysis.
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart.
A very good position for ALTS!!
Total2 still holds support and is testing the previous resistance trendline and the altcoin may pump
If it is broken and closed downside from the support level then the chart will be invalid.
Sorry for my English it is not my native language.
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section.
Thank you...
Crypto Market Cap bounced off a double support❗️💎On April 30, TOTAL2 had reached and rejected two technical indicators at 966.832B. The first is an 8/1 Gann Fan trendline and the second is a 0% Fibonacci level. We applied the Fibonacci so that 50% is placed right at the ascending channel breakout point. This way, Fibs show that after the breakout, the price has dropped the same distance as the width of the channel.
💎After the bounce, TOTAL2 retraced up, but failed to break a simple downtrend trendline. For the time being, we are likely to witness a short-term consolidation, between the strong psychological resistance near 1.0T and technical support at 946B.
💎Bears remain in control as long as........
ALTS MARKET CAP 12 HOURS UPDATEHi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities.
Do consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange.
I post short mid and long-term trade setups too.
Let’s get to the chart!
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome.
TOTAL 2 UPDATES:
total 2 is making this big EXPENDING channel pattern, currently, it looks like it is going to retest the lower support.
we can bounce from the lower support of this channel so let's see how it goes.
RSI is showing some bearish divergence move.
if it breaks the lower support of this channel then the chart will be invalided
This chart is likely to help you in making better trade decisions if it did consider upvoting this chart.
Would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
Total Market Cap: At A Crossroads As we head into next week, markets have been heavily bracing for the FEDs Rate Hike on May 3rd or 4th . War is escalating in Ukraine, World Food Supplies are in disarray, Inflation is still at historical levels, Energy is soaring, and Supply Chains continue to struggle.
There are so many Macro challenges building up that simply put, they can't be ignored; No matter how irrational the market wants to be.
I truly feel greed has taken over and most investing has become gambling (Warren Buffet recently said this). Especially in the Crypto space.
Who buys because they believe in the Utility of the coin and who buys simply to flip it for profit?
Its become a side hustle ever since the First Top in May 2021. Euphoria hit all markets from the 2020 BOOM and everything exploded. When ALL things go UP, this is rather unusual.
Usually, especially historically, these characteristics would align with this mystical "Blow off the top" but you know it's never enough.
We even have seen a second round of a bullish wave in July 2021, shortly after the original drop in May.
But again, it simply was not enough.
With every pump and dump, everyone wants more and more.
Profits, profits, profits. Leverage, leverage, leverage.
Even in the face of the absolute worst Economic/World conditions we have seen in MOST of our lifetime!
Investing has turned into legitimate degenerate gambling between Stock Options and ALT Coins , and the market will correct as far as it needs to in order to cleanse this mentality.
Back in 2020 when the MEME stocks first took off and retail flooded the market like never before in history, that was the first signal of a Cyclical Top coming in. If everyone is already flooded in, where does this extra money come from? These Cycles take a very long time to play out and to this day no one wants to even consider it.
There are two paths forward for this next week:
Scenario #1: Markets absorb this 0.50% or 0.75% Rate Hike and bounces
Scenario #2: Markets can't sustain the hike and loses all major supports.
Both Stocks and Crypto are laying on critical support; I am leaning 60 / 40 odds in favor of Scenario #2.
Let me know what you guys think!