Market Update: Bearish Conditions Persist, but Stability NotedCurrent Market Sentiment:
The market remains below key horizontal resistance levels and trendlines, continuing to show bearish behavior.
Despite the negative sentiment, the recent sell-off found support around the $850B level, suggesting there is buying interest or at least some stability at this critical support zone.
Altcoin Focus:
For altcoins, the next significant shift will come if price action breaks above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
These moving averages serve as dynamic resistance, and a clean break above them would indicate strengthening bullish momentum and potential for further upside.
Caution Ahead:
Until we see a clear break of the moving averages and key resistance levels, a cautious stance is warranted. Traders should watch for signs of continued consolidation or a break to the downside if support does not hold.
Key Takeaways:
Support at $850B remains critical.
Breakout signals for altcoins lie in a move above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
Caution is advised until price action confirms a bullish shift.
Total3
Altcoin Golden Cross Formed Last Week - First Time in 4 YearsTrading Fam,
You are probably tired by now of seeing all the hopeful headlines, predictions, and analysis while altcoins continue to descend. I am too. Therefore, I am going to sound a little more pessimistic in this post. Some call this 'realistic' but whatever ...semantics.
While I am hopeful that an altseason will occur, I am also beginning to become less and less convinced that anything like we experienced in the past will occur again. The longer we go without seeing the beginning of our altcoin cycle, the more time altcoins have to dilute the capital pouring into the market. There are just so many altcoins to choose from now and literally hundreds or thousands more are being created weekly by way of memecoins. As the meme on my chart illustrates, those pouring in are spreading their resources out much more thinly now because there is so much more to choose from than there was in 2021. Therefore, what pump we may see in our own investments may not equate to what we expect. And if we are not careful to pick the right coins, it may not even equate to the average profit that was realized in the altcoin market in 2021.
So, here's the deal. By now, you may or may not be aware that a couple of weeks ago our altcoin charts showed us something we haven't seen in over four years! It was the golden cross. This event occurs when our 100 DMA crosses above our 200 DMA. In this case, white represents the 100 DMA and red represents the 200 DMA. They are both SMAs. This event is supposed to be an amazing indicator and a lot of analyst were using it to say that we that our altcoin season has now begun. This very well could be the case, but also, we could drop further and use one of those moving averages as support before any real bounce occurs. Furthermore, past history should never dictate current. History may not in fact repeat and altcoin season may not occur at all. It doesn't have to. Maybe this time we don't get one? This is simply something we should realistically consider.
Now if it does occur, excellent! This is what I personally have been banking on. So, the other thing I want to discuss a little bit more is what actually occurred in the altcoin market last time this happened in 2021. You can see from the chart, that once the golden cross occurred, the race was on. Price essentially continued up through May, dipped from May through July and then continued up again from July through November. So, if you held from the beginning of the cross to our peak in November, you would have realized average altcoin gainz of around 500% (or 5x).
Now, let's say the same thing occurs this year. Our golden cross occurred two weeks later this year than it did in 2021 but I don't think that makes much of a difference. Essentially, if this altcoin season is truly beginning right now, we'll have about 9-10 months of upside with the potential of a big dip somewhere there in the middle. That dip in 2021 was about a 60% drop from top to bottom and paper hands folded quickly during that time thinking the top was in.
If similar price action occurs this year, then we may have 9-10 months to capitalize on alts but again, with a huge exception ...only the best of the best in alts will perform up to this 5x standard or better. You know, stuff like Doge, XRP, SOL, ETH (yes, I said ETH), etc. The OG classic boomer alts.
But what about memecoins?
IMO, a select few memecoins could still do very well, however, we have to be honest here. We are playing roulette. Despite what Murad and others on X continue to preach about belief and conviction and religiosity of the coin, the number of holders, yada yada yada, in the end, we have to be honest with ourselves or we will lose money. Memecoins are simply a big casino. Some will do very well and make their millions. You'll hear from these lucky bastards incessantly I am sure. The fact that they turned 100 dollars into $100,000,000 will be advertised on X and other social media platforms ad nauseam. You will want to go throw up because you were at one time in one of these memecoins too. And then you sold. And these are the stories you won't hear. You won't hear about how many failed. You won't hear about how many degens went broke chasing this imaginary illusion, this pipe dream, of unlimited wealth filled with lambos and yachts with girls. You won't hear that most memecoin traders lost money rather than gained.
I don't want to end too pessimistically here because I am playing the memecoin game too. I'm in the casino and spinning this wheel. Maybe one day I'll be one of those lucky bastards that wins. As of today, that is certainly not the case (just being honest) and I certainly don't stake my life savings on it. So, all I am suggesting here once again is to be cautious. Have fun. Play the game if you wish and I hope you win. But also, be careful, pick only the best of the best, and NEVER risk more than you can afford to lose.
Here's to hoping this is truly the beginning of another altcoin run.
✌️ Stew
Supply & Demand for BTC.d <---> ETHBTCA notable change may be occurring in the market dynamics surrounding Bitcoin dominance, which reflects BTC’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market. Recently, it has displayed a shooting star candle, indicating a potential decline in BTC’s market influence. These signs point towards the beginning of an alt season, a time when alternative cryptocurrencies tend to outperform Bitcoin. With BTC stabilising around the significant $100k mark, the environment appears ripe for altcoins to attract investor interest. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in assessing whether this trend will gain traction, possibly transforming the market landscape for 2025.
Bitcoin experienced an impressive 2024, achieving new milestones and reinforcing its status as the market frontrunner. As we move into 2025, BTC remains robust, yet a shift in market dynamics may be imminent. Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance tends to wane when altcoins start to gain momentum, and this year might follow that pattern.
As Bitcoin finds stability around crucial price points, we often see liquidity shifting towards altcoins, sparking what many refer to as an alt season. Historically, during these times, altcoins tend to surpass Bitcoin in performance, offering significant returns for those investors ready to explore beyond BTC. With TOTAL3 approaching new price discovery and Bitcoin's dominance on the decline, the potential for altcoins to take center stage is becoming more apparent.
The crucial factor for BTC.d to unlock is how ETH performs against BTC. With the ETH/BTC ratio below 0.03, it appears appealing, but until it begins to rise, the alt season will be postponed. Alt season typically arises when Bitcoin dominance is high, not when it's low.
Typically, Bitcoin dominance tends to decrease in the years following a halving event. Therefore, I suspect that by the end of the year, dominance will be in the negative. However, up to this point, we have seen an increase in dominance this year.
TOTAL3🔴 Total 3 Index
Currently, the weekly support box and the key level of $800 billion have been maintained after a fake breakout.
If the index can establish a base at this level, we can remain hopeful for the formation of the final bullish leg (W5) with the goal of reaching a new ATH . This would allow some top-market altcoins to move in line with their pattern completion and recover.
$BTC.D is at key Fib Retracement level. More upside-expectedThe most important story of this Crypto cycle has been the relentless strength of CRYPTOCAP:BTC against other crypto. The index CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D which measures the dominance of BTC in the total Crypto market in terms of Market Cap hit its low in Dec 2021 when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D hit a multi-year low of 39%. That means only 39% of the Total Market Crypto can be attributed to $BTC. But since then, the Fed quantitative tightening began and most of the cryptos faced a meltdown. Even though CRYPTOCAP:BTC faced a bear market in CRYPTOCAP:USDT terms but still it fell less than the average Crypto. Since then, the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart has made a bullish double bottom and then made new higher lows and higher highs. If we plot the Fib retracement levels on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D weekly chart we saw recently that the Dominance chart stalled around 0.5 and 0.618 Fib levels. Since then, the Dominance chart has been making new highs and broken past the 0.618 . The next key level is 0.786 which will take the dominance to 66.12% percent. Watch out for my blog when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D reaches the key level for more insights.
TOTAL 3Everything is clear; just look at the past chart. There are two scenarios. In any case, we should see a sharp move in altcoins soon.
My personal opinion is that the blue box scenario will play out within the next 2 to 6 months. If Ethereum rises above $3,000, altcoins will begin their growth.
Market3I haven’t been posting much lately simply because there’s nothing particularly interesting to say, the market has been a bit dull.
2025 should be a strong year for altcoins, as they’ve been consistently suppressed. With BTC dominance reaching 64%, which is quite significant, all attention remains on Bitcoin.
On this chart, you can see that $1.17 trillion acted as a rejection level for the crypto market (excluding BTC and ETH). Time will tell, but I anticipate a $4 trillion altcoin bull market before the end of 2025.
Remember, Fibonacci plays a crucial role in long-term market predictions.
Invest wisely and at the right time.
Happy Tr4Ding !
One more sell-off your honor2019 had that prolonged sideways accumulation right on that same support level (circled). Today’s chart is behaving similarly, revisiting that line while momentum is slipping. If market repeats 2019’s pattern, we could see an extended consolidation on top of that support, eventually setting up the next rally once selling dries up and buyers return in full kapaw yabadaba’doooo mode
BTC.D Capitulation Liquidation candle. Bitcoin's price hovers around $97,000 on Wednesday, following a 3.5% drop the day before. David Sacks, President Trump’s crypto czar, has announced plans to assess a Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, traders on the Bitcoin CME are adopting a cautious stance, advising investors to steer clear of leverage at all costs. As uncertainty and volatility rise in the wake of Trump’s supportive crypto regulations, the potential for a Bitcoin reserve is emerging, yet the market remains turbulent due to tariffs and broader economic challenges.
Additionally, Bitcoin is bracing for fluctuations as FTX prepares to start repaying creditors on February 18. The beleaguered exchange, which filed for bankruptcy in November 2022 with debts estimated at $11.2 billion, is set to disburse payouts that could reach up to $16.5 billion. To facilitate this, FTX is actively selling assets and investments in tech companies. This development is pivotal for those impacted by the FTX collapse, sparking significant interest within the cryptocurrency community.
In 2018 and 2019, the BTC.D chart faced rejections from the 60% resistance zone during the bearish years that followed the explosive bull run of 2017.
Now, we find ourselves in a different scenario, with a retest happening in a bull run year post-halvening. While it’s too early to declare the end of the rally, the usual indicators for a BTC bull peak have yet to signal a positive trend.
From a technical standpoint, BTC.D has the potential to climb to 63.84% and possibly reach as high as 72.5%. This development could spell great news for Bitcoin while casting a shadow over the altcoin market.
This shift might be driven by consistent demand from ETFs and institutional investors for Bitcoin, leaving altcoins in the dust until later in the year.
However, some speculators believe that the recent liquidations over the weekend may have drained enough leverage, allowing altcoins to begin their recovery and, at long last, outshine Bitcoin. We await the unfolding drama with eager anticipation.
Mid-February, Btc.d peaks and the altcoin rally may start.Trust fibonacci.
It is clear from Fibonacci extensions that we are close to the peaks in Bitcoin dominance.
Fibonacci circles also give us ideas of both resistances and time periods.
In my opinion, Bitcoin dominance will peak in mid-February and the altcoin bullrun may begin. Bitcoin dominance will bottom at the end of May 2026.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any digital asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
TOTAL3; What Lies Ahead for Altcoins.It is a well-known pattern that needs no explanation, and what can happen is also clear. Some people are doing crazy analyses only because they think the ALT season MUST happen soon.
So, for total3, A fall to the previous resistance is possible if the market continues its bearish trend. We can see 780-800B, and if it's broken, then 700B.
They don't say it, but a head and shoulders pattern can be formed here, sending total3 lower to ~400B and completing the pattern, and after that, total can reach new highs, +2T.
The bear market might not be over yet. If the 400B scenario plays out, then most altcoins can have new lows.
But this whole thing is not bearish.
Another bullish move can still happen from here and total3 can rise to 1.5T, but I'd consider it as a fake breakout, the chances we see an altseason soon are lower imo until the pattern is completed , either after touching 780B, 700B or lower as I said.
BTC | Developing Distribution Pattern | FractalsWe're looking at a disjointed channel dating back from 2019 capturing all the last two cycle tops and bottoms without having to use the log scale
This distribution pattern caught my eye as it seemed very similar to the fractal top in 2021 and of course we can spot partial fractals of distribution all over the chart like the ones I circled in yellow
As we trade in this top like area we have to remember BTC is a Risk-On asset and is sensitive to economic data
Lets take a look at altcoins CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 at the bottom, we can notice that every time there was a developing continuation pattern, perhaps a bullish flag in this scenario, BTCs price slows down with CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D looking weaker within the 60 - 65% zone
Seeing this I dont think we'll see a 70% dominance with alts looking to rise from the dead and to shoot for for the moon🌝
🎯My relevant post shows targets of $115k BTC from the falling wedge breakout also in confluence with a fib extension eyeing at the same level as the flag pole target, 100%
We can also overshoot to around $120k
One more thing when we line up TOTAL3s bullish patterns with BTCs price you'll notice BTC starts to underperform and while ALTs look to over perform
We all know what happens after ALTs hit the moon and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD may be telling us something is coming soon.
Stay tuned for more BTC updates and lets get through this together🚀