Bitcoin FULL Analysis PART 2In a previous analysis, I discussed the relationship between Bitcoin, the Altcoin market and Bitcoin Dominance.
An important rotation exists between these three; and by using TOTAL3 together with BTC.D, you can get a clearer picture of where BTC is trading in the current cycle.
In this video, I make an important suggestion based off Elliot Wave Theory. This theory is backed up by the points mentioned but also by the Logarithmic view:
From the log scale, we can see BTC is still trading relatively low compared to previous cycle top-outs. So the question remains - the end... or just the beginning?
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COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Total3
BTC : HARD DROP Likely BEFORE New ATHHold on to your horses - in today's analysis we're going to do a really deep dive on Bitcoin, the altcoin market (TOTAL 3) and Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Make sure you watch all the way until the end to reach the final conclusion!
In this video, I systematically point out two main reasons why the corrective phase isn't over, as well as what could possible happen NEXT based on the rotations between alts and BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
For months I've been anticipating a multi-month corrective pattern, before another impulse wave up which I believe leads us to our final all time high (ATH) for this bullish cycle. Although I've said "multi-month" quite a few times... who knew it would be such a drag! I nearly thought BTC was ready to turn towards the upside, but after THIS* happened (together with the analysis in the video) it's likely we're still heading lower:
*https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/h2bMes4J-BTC-FINALLY-Bullish-BREAKOUT/
THIS* is referring to my update on BTC two days ago, where it seemed like a bullish breakout. At this point however, the price is not able to hold the support zone (which was the condition I listed) and therefore it's likely a fakeout.
If you're looking for the idea I referred to in the analysis on the Altcoin dump find it here:👇
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Bitcoin All Time High NOT PRICED IN YETFor weeks now, I've been talking about why the all time high for Bitcoin is NOT YET in. (Proof here)
Here are the main reasons why.
👉 Elliot Wave Theory
I've been discussing EWT for many weeks alongside with the bearish M-Pattern that marked the beginning of the corrective wave (3-4). Once the corrective wave finishes, which I expected to be a multi-month playout, the final impulse wave up awaits us (4-5).
👉 Bitcoin-Dominance Increasing & ALTS Bottom
Considering MANY alts have seen bottom patterns after corrections (as discussed in the video), its safe to say the dump is over. But BTC.D is still increasing... If you want to further understand WHY this is a good sign, see HERE:
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KUCOIN:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
Why ALTSEASON 2.0 is HEREIf you've been following for a wile, you'll know I've been speaking of Elliot Wave theory and cycles - and how, from a macro perspective, we are currently in a multi-month correction before another impulse wave up.
By looking at the TOTAL3 chart, as discussed in the video, it seems likely that this may only be the BEGINNING for altcoins... and you'll see why.
Even though multi-month corrections can be demotivating, patience rewards the faithful!
Check out yesterday's analysis on Altcoins that are strong right now despite the recent dip:
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
Take CAUTION with these ALTS : ALGO, LTC, XRP, HBARIt's time to review which altcoins showed sign s of strength during the recent new Bitcoin All Time High (ATH) ... and which showed no strength.
Together with the failed breakout we observe on Algorand, THESE altcoins didn't fare much better. There are a few more, but let's focus on these alts for today:
What we're comparing this chart to, is the obvious increase we have seen on BTC (new ATH) and the following increases across other altcoin markets:
During the previous cycles; we often saw the altcoin market rally a week or two AFTER a new BTC peak.
From this, we can determine that most of the bigger altcoins (by market cap) should have rallied by now. In conclusion; we need to re-evaluate the fundamental arguments for these alts - why were they not able to show signs of strength like other alts? Why were the sellers so overwhelming compared to other alts?
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BINANCE:ALGOUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:XRPUSDT BINANCE:LTCUSD.P BINANCE:UNIUSDT BYBIT:HBARUSDT
Will It Hold?Traders,
We are right on track with literally everything as discussed in previous chart updates and videos. No surprises this week, thus, the short weekend update video. The only new development is that Bitcoin is testing our ever-important multi-year trendline yet again. Will the bulls win this tug of war or will the bears finally find the strength to pull price across and to the downside?
Let’s talk about that.
XRP Bull trap, ALTS PullbackHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
A bull trap is "false" signal that shows a bearish trend (such as the lower highs in XRP) has reversed and is now heading upwards, when in fact, it will continue to decline. Often a large wick towards the upside is observed, shaking out traders favoring the obvious move (shorting).
It's important to note that for the first time, the TOTAL3 chart is about to close a red candle ALONG with Bitcoin Dominance:
This indicates that the entire crypto environment is being drained of liquidity, and corrections will follow.
Again, I wish there were more options... I'm choosing "short" to label my outlook even though I would not trade with leverage on XRP. The bulltrap and the TOTAL3 chart indicates we're heading lower, and so my bias for the short term is testing next immediate support zones.
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BTC - MUST WATCH For Short Term TradersHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
As you know, we're trading in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle.
As we gradually make our way up towards a new ATH over the next few months, technical indicator tools will be crucial to help catch those perfect swing-trades.
Today's analysis is an absolute MUST watch for beginners- to intermediate-level traders. The important concepts in this video are all about why you can't watch the BTC chart alone, and which other charts you need to watch together with BTC as well as which indicators are great for short term trades, and how to use them TOGETHER.
Again, I'm "forced" to label this post as long but like I said yesterday, I wish there were some other options. I'm ultimately labeling it as "long" because we are in a bull market and corrections are just opportunities for swing trades. Shorting in a bull market is risky business and I am all about risk management in setups.
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Will SEC witchunt kill TOTAL3?! What does it need?? SEC wants to crack down on crypto market
This is a means to control the flow of money. Every nation across time does not want to see their money flow out of their 'bloc'. If Binance continues to be a behemoth in the new finance space whilst CZ is in China.. this will continued to be perceived as a threat. I dont have extra information into Binance but regardless the Western bloc doesnt want Binance to be taking retail or corporate USD/EUR/GBP/AUD/CAD/etc en masse. Just as China does not want US tech companies to dominate a space like search for Chinese people.
This will consolidate the market
If SEC is successful (i dont know if they will be) then it will consolidate the market. This consolidation can be great for TOTAL3. Personal views aside if the flow of money is clear for larger actors then floodgates can open. From retirement funds to sovereign wealth funds to even treasuries.
Who would lose ?
Many altcoins could be damaged beyond point of recovery. Recovery I mean getting back to where they were. Many can dwindle into obscurity and became harder and harder to participate in. The real loser out of a consolidation of the crypto market will be retail and class mobility.
What to do about it ?
The upside potential of many smaller altcoins can easily tempt many to dump their bags into those with greatest upside. Regardless of SEC and regulation these smallest ones have the most risk. It is important not to be too lopsided in high risk crypto when crypto itself as an index is down 70%+ ie 3.3x to highs. There is plenty of gains out there within the bigger players who are more likely to rise above regulation and be where money is pushed to.
Who wins ?
As I imagine will be the case for at least another 10+ years.. the winner will be bitcoin. It will be hard to stop. Even anti crypto regulation will help bitcoin. It may be the biggest and seem like the least upside but it is increasingly important to have some exposure to the sun. Sun=BTC.
TOTAL3 • extra comments on previous postHi guys since previous idea/post got so much engagement with different opinions. Here's a bit more further thoughts on the TOTAL3 chart.
Again. I'm thinking in terms of probabilities and risk reward in the context of the macro trend. I am not focusing on the daily and intraday moves here.
Let's look at this structurally.