The Crypto market bottom is close !!Total 3 analysis ( all market cap except BTC -ETH)
Iam surprised how this chart looks so similar to famous market cycle physiology chart
According to the famous model we are likely to form the final low (Depression phase) very soon in Q4/2023 or early 2024 after that new bull cycle start !
Be patient the hardest moves of bears are done
Gold things take time
Best of wishes
Total3
Margin Bloodbath as BTC ImplodesHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
One of the most important parts of trading is following the macro phase and planning your trades. The only way to do this, is to pre-identify the macro market cycle that's currently playing out. Why am I reminding you of this? Well, because despite the recent liquidations, we are still in a CRYPTO BULL MARKET.
Bitcoin recently dropped to around 25K from a previous 30K ish. This caused a significant drop in the value of cryptocurrencies across the board, but micro caps didn't plummet as hard. Traders lost an estimated $1 billion in liquidations in a 24-hour period. This sell-off was one of the most severe downturns for digital assets this year. And yet, according to the macro , things are looking extremely bullish for smaller cap altcoins. Most smaller cap altcoins have not plummeted as hard as BTC and the other top alts by market cap. This means that the liquidity could possibly go into micro cap coins next.
(Liquidation is when an exchange closes a leveraged trading position due to a partial or total loss of the trader's initial margin. This happens when the trader is unable to meet the margin requirements for the position, or when the price of the asset falls below a certain level. Margin trading is a type of trading where traders borrow money from an exchange to buy more assets. This allows traders to amplify their profits, but it also increases their risk of losses. The liquidations that occurred during the sell-off were caused by traders who were forced to sell their Bitcoin positions due to margin calls. A margin call is a notification from an exchange that a trader must deposit more money into their account to cover potential losses. If the trader does not deposit the required funds, the exchange will close their position, which can lead to losses.)
The Bitcoin price drop was unexpected, but so far the support zone around 25K holds well.
My strategy at the moment is the same as it was before this bloodbath; I won't touch BTC or the top 10 by market cap, especially not with leverage trades . Instead, I will continue to seek out under valued micro caps and accumulate for the next altrun.
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TOTAL3 is in the Global Purchase Zone!!!Global Purchase Zone 388.685-275.539
Purchase level 336.268
Local purchase zone 331.297-247.814
Purchase level 293.175
Sweet Shopping Zone 323.856-286.795
Volume price 351.584
Total volume price 373.861
We have just broken through the price of the withdrawal with an impulse!!!
At the moment we brought 18.154 billion into the market!!!
Perhaps we witnessed the beginning of the growth of TOTLA3 the rest did not look!
Total3 - Altcoins - Looks poised to PUMPDid post some some semi bullish tweets, (pls see profile for more info) with individual names. But let's touch on #altcoins as they are my fav :)
4Hr chart shows
Did speak on positive divergence few times
RSI over 50 = GOOD
Bullish Moving Avg crossover
HERE IT GETS INTERESTING
Almost forgot that there's TWO inverse head & shoulder patterns for
TOTAL 3 (no CRYPTOCAP:BTC or MIL:ETH )
Smaller has been forming since April and the MUCH LARGER one has been in the making for over year!
If it breaks with volume = #crypto #altcoins🚀🚀🚀
Will SEC witchunt kill TOTAL3?! What does it need?? SEC wants to crack down on crypto market
This is a means to control the flow of money. Every nation across time does not want to see their money flow out of their 'bloc'. If Binance continues to be a behemoth in the new finance space whilst CZ is in China.. this will continued to be perceived as a threat. I dont have extra information into Binance but regardless the Western bloc doesnt want Binance to be taking retail or corporate USD/EUR/GBP/AUD/CAD/etc en masse. Just as China does not want US tech companies to dominate a space like search for Chinese people.
This will consolidate the market
If SEC is successful (i dont know if they will be) then it will consolidate the market. This consolidation can be great for TOTAL3. Personal views aside if the flow of money is clear for larger actors then floodgates can open. From retirement funds to sovereign wealth funds to even treasuries.
Who would lose ?
Many altcoins could be damaged beyond point of recovery. Recovery I mean getting back to where they were. Many can dwindle into obscurity and became harder and harder to participate in. The real loser out of a consolidation of the crypto market will be retail and class mobility.
What to do about it ?
The upside potential of many smaller altcoins can easily tempt many to dump their bags into those with greatest upside. Regardless of SEC and regulation these smallest ones have the most risk. It is important not to be too lopsided in high risk crypto when crypto itself as an index is down 70%+ ie 3.3x to highs. There is plenty of gains out there within the bigger players who are more likely to rise above regulation and be where money is pushed to.
Who wins ?
As I imagine will be the case for at least another 10+ years.. the winner will be bitcoin. It will be hard to stop. Even anti crypto regulation will help bitcoin. It may be the biggest and seem like the least upside but it is increasingly important to have some exposure to the sun. Sun=BTC.
Huge Inverse Head and Shoulders on TOTAL3This is another TA on why it's a good place to be buying altcoins this summer.
Based on the chart, we can observe a huge falling wedge that was broken in July. The price has been above the trendline for several weeks, indicating a clean breakout. Furthermore, there seems to be a formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Currently, we are completing the right shoulder, and if we manage to see the price reaching the base, I anticipate a continuation of the upward movement towards the previous support zone around 470 or 500 billions.
It's worth noting the RSI as well. At the beginning of this year in January, this trendline was breached, transitioning from a downtrend. In June, we retested it from above, and now we witness a bounce, which adds another bullish signal.
So I believe these technical factors point to potential further upside. Pick your favorite altcoins and get ready for the summer rally. Happy trading!
Altcoins $TOTAL3 looks good, but weakness likely lingers#Altcoins still look good although the weakness we are seeing is needed for the FLAG formation.
The 4Hr chart shows that weakness may be a lil longer.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = No CRYPTOCAP:BTC or $ETH.
Obviously some #crypto look better than others.
$BTC trading exactly as we called, AGAIN!CRYPTOCAP:BTC 20EMA (Green line) is holding, for now.
The test of sub 30k level was completed today as well.
IF it this area doesn't hold, #BTC is looking @ the trend line.
(PERSONAL)
Am going to nibble on #altcoins again, after selling the positions.
#altcoin = CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = No CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH
Will share which ones am picking up later tonight.
Just got back to office & it has been am eventful day!
Today was good day!
Bearish 5-0 on (Total 3 Excluding - LTC and Stablecoins)There is a Bearish 5-0 visible on the Daily on the Total Market Cap Ex- BTC, ETH, LTC, and the two big USD-based Stable Coins; if it plays out, I think Total 3 will make a new low that will likely take it down to the macro 0.886.
We also have some Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI to back it up.
TOTAL3 Breakout - Altseason 2023?The TOATAL3 chart has been in correction for almost two years (600 days).
This correction formed as a Falling Wedge, which is a bullish reversal pattern.
Yesterday, following the court ruling about XRP’s case as “not a security,” TOTAL3 broke out of the wedge to the upside.
The final confirmation is if TOTAL3 gets above resistance at 407 billion USD.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
$BTC vs $TOTAL 3, broke up, made up, but what about now?CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = NO CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH
VS
#Bitcoin futures (this dictates price action, NOT spot)
From Nov 3/22 - March 3/23.
#Altcoins traded lower in December while #BTC had already bottomed.
However, the #crypto #altcoin market quickly caught up and by early January they were trading similarly.
-------
Until...
April - May
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 decoupled and the #crypto #altcoin market began to drop FASTER & MORE than, its counterpart #BTC.
SEC FUD certainly hurt BUT this happened BEFORE that news came out. We even mentioned it many times, documented!
Come June 10-15 #Altcoins began to trade alongside #Bitcoin again.
What about now?
-------
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is in CONSOLIDATION mode.
Buy volume is mediocre but as long as no heavy selling anymore, that's good.
RSI must stay above 50.
Price levels > 29.75 best to hold @ worst 28.8.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 has work to do but buys are coming in. Not heavy but hopeful.
RSI looks ok.
Weekly chart:
Highs are lower BUT it did form a higher low.
1 white line will break within next 2 months!
(apologize that all the charts mentioned cannot be shown. Pls see profile for more info)
Altcoins Double-Top, DXY Double-BottomShould TVC:DXY move back down to the bottom shown on the chart above, the altcoin market could move back to its top.
There is also a possibility of this happening if DXY simply moves sideways for an extended period of time.
However, if DXY moves back up above 105-108, hits 112-116 and continues, expect the altcoin market to move much further down.
Why?
The altcoin market and TVC:DXY are significantly negatively correlated, moving in near mirror-images of each other.
DXY correlation with alts (and Bitcoin, Stocks, etc) does cycle into the positive at times, but predominantly remains in negative correlation, long-term. This makes sense, too:
as the dollar index strengthens or inflates, the vast majority of everything that can be purchased with it will lose value
as the dollar index weakens or deflates, we see them gain in value.
Bitcoin Dominance is Close to its TopTLDR:
• BTCDOM is in the final stages of a Cup and Handle Formation.
• Max target for BTCDOM is 500 billion.
• I estimate that BTCDOM still has two or three months of upside. During this time Bitcoin will perform better than most alts. However, BTCDOM is close to toping. Once BTCDOM realizes its full potential I expect the alt valuation in BTC terms will increase.
Background:
• In a previous TV idea, I covered the TOTAL 3 Chart (linked). My conclusion was that the altcoin bear market is close to its end. I wanted to corroborate or refute this Assessment by reviewing the BTC Dominance chart. I am happy to tell you that my bias seems to be accurate.
• To be clear Bitcoin is mega-bullish and I expect it keep being bullish. The only aspect of bitcoin I expect to diminish is its dominance in the crypto market.
Chart Analysis:
BTCDOM is in the final stages of a perfect Cup & Handle formation. These include the following:
1. Uptrend: BTCDOM was in an uptrend since May 21st until June 22nd . During this period BTCDOM rose by 195%.
2. Correction/Cup: Since March of 2023 BTCDOM was in a correction. This correction took the shape of a rounding bottom. The lowest point of this correction touched the 0.382 fib retracement. This is a valid Cup.
3. Handle: During the Months of March and April BTCDOM consolidated in a Bull Flag which is valid for a handle.
4. Breakout: BTCDOM broke out to the upside on the weekly candle of April 24th. BTCDOM tested the 338 billion level as support on the weekly candle of May 29th.
5. Target: The target of this Cup and Handle formation is the 500 billion level. Currently Bitcoin is at 387 billion.
Conclusions:
This may sound bearish for altcoins. However, I would like to point out a few issues.
A. it is not guaranteed the BTCDOM will reach the 500 billion level.
B. Even if it will, it took us 10 weeks to get to the halfway point, so we have 2 or three months of an extreme BTCDOM at the most.
C. Markets are forward looking. If I can analyze the chart and see what is coming, you can bet your last Satoshi that the VCs and whales see it as well. My guess is that they are accumulating big-time.
D. Ask yourself: Would I long an asset that already made a 250% gain? or would you look for an undervalued asset that still has a lot of upside?
E. BTCDOM is close to oversold on the weekly RSI. Does it have some room for more upside? Sure. However, BTCDOM is close to the top.
Please read my TOTAL 3 analysis for more context.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
Where is the Altcoin Market Heading?TLDR:
IMO, the altcoin market is in the depression phase of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet.
I expect TOTAL 3 to hold the 300 billion support level and break out of the falling wedge when Bitcoin breaks the 31K resistance level.
Target: 1.11 Trillion.
I know that for you to take me seriously I should tell you that all alts are going to zero and that you should ditch altcoins and just trade Bitcoin. Sorry to disappoint you, I think we are on the verge of a breakout.
Take a look at the recent past. Do you remember what it was like in November and December of 2022? Bitcoin was trading at 15 and 16K and almost everyone on CT was calling for a 10K Bitcoin.
Do you remember the disbelief many of us felt in January of 2023 when all of a sudden Bitcoin became mega-bullish? It still is, but that doesn’t stop all the sidelined traders to keep calling for new bear market lows.
If you feel that the altcoin rally earlier this year was a “sucker’s rally” and now everything will go to zero, just know that we are at the final stages of the altcoin bear market.
How do I know? Just look at this “Psychology of a Market Cycle Cheat Sheet.” We are past the anger phase about the Garry Ganslers of the world and well into depression.
If you missed some or all of the Bitcoin rally the market is giving you a second chance.
Now, to the chart:
The TOTAL 3 market cap chart displays the market cap of all the altcoins excluding BTC and ETH. That includes stables.
We can see that the altcoin market is in a correction since November of 2021. Unlike Bitcoin and ETH, altcoins are still in a bear market. However, the chart formation is that of a Falling Wedge which is a reversal pattern.
TOTAL 3 tried to break out once in April 2023, failed (anger), and went from 406 billion to 292 billion, about a 28% drawdown (depression). However, if you’ll take a look at the Accumulation/Distribution indicator you will see that it did not go down nearly as much. My only conclusion is that someone is picking up alts for cheap!
Theoretically, the altcoin market could remain in this wedge further, even go down as low as the lower support line would allow, and remain bullish (pink dot). However, I think it is unlikely. If the people in the market today were sellers, they would have already sold. Just remember the FUD and depression of late 2022. IMO, alts are at the same point Bitcoin was then.
I think that the 300 billion support level will hold and as bitcoin breaks the 31K resistance level the alts will break out of the wedge. As this cycle progresses towards the halving some bitcoin profits will go into altcoins and later new market participants will fuel the altcoin market further.
IMO, this is the time to accumulate and even take long positions, the best is yet to come. Remember it is always darkest before dawn.
(Image retrieved from: fifthperson.com)
🔥 Total Altcoin Marketcap Inverse Head & Shoulders: New Cycle?TOTAL3, the total crypto marketcap excluding BTC and ETH, has been trading significantly more bearish than Bitcoin and Ethereum. This can also be deduced from the vertical trend of Bitcoin dominance.
Still, there's some good news to be said about the altcoin market. As seen on the chart, the altcoin marketcap has formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern, which is classically a trend reversal pattern.
Keep in mind that the pattern is not yet confirmed. First we have to break through the top resistance (neckline). Nevertheless, it's a pattern that we definitely have to keep a close eye on since it can signal that great things are coming soon for alts.
If the pattern confirms, there's a decent case to be made for the idea that the bear market bottom is in and that a new bull-cycle for alts will begin.
Share you thoughts🙏
Total 3 Bull Market in Jan - Mar 2024Total 3 - Altcoins (minus BTC & ETH)
A different "perspective" to yesterdays chart.
Yesterdays chart suggested TOTAL 2 (Altcoins minus BTC) has a probability of breaking out in Dec 2023.
The TOTAL 3 (Alts minus BTC/ETH) chart suggests we could break out later between Jan - Mar 2024. This would make sense as BTC and ETH are typically first movers, and are followed by the altcoin market.
Its important to understand that these charts help gauge timing a long term trade in altcoins. The charts only provide a rough time frame of a probability of a break out into a new secular bull market between Dec 2023 - Mar 2024. All this offers is a probable time window. I would hope it would help you sit on your cash until we have some confirmation of price direction within a historically reasonable time frame, as illustrated in the charts.
PUKA.
🔥 Altcoin Extermination: Worst Case Scenario ExplainedAfter Friday nights' massive drop, the total altcoin marketcap (TOTAL3) is hugging it's bear market lows of December 2022. Bitcoin is still holding up, but alts have been losing exponentially against Bitcoin, with no immediate end in sight.
In this analysis I'd like to explore my personal worst case scenario for the altcoin market. Where the alts dropped (on average) over 92% last bear market, they've 'only' dropped 75% thus far., see yellow dotted line This makes one believe that the bears still have more to ground to gain in the near future.
In my view, the worst case scenario would bring the altcoin marketcap all the way towards the lower dotted purple support. This would mean that the average altcoin will drop another 60% from it's current levels. One might think this is far-fetched, but I believe that this scenario is plausible if BTC will start dropping more.
However, we're not there yet. Some serious problems have to arise if we ever want to get at the worst case scenario. But, as we've seen last Friday, crazy things can happen randomly.
Do you think this is a possible scenario? What is your view on the altcoins? Share below 🙏
TOTAL3 makes me thinks alts still have to bleedI've layered in some more alts but then I remembered to check TOTAL3 (total market cap without BTC and ETH for those who don't know) and I saw my descending channel hasn't been filled yet.
I think before we can comfortably spend big on our bags TOTAL3 has to test that lower support and reach 253 Billions. More or less it's another -15% drop from here.
My advice is to buy small when you DCA and keep your cash ready for when we bottom because we won't stay there for more.
$TOTAL3 = No $BTC or $ETH weaker vs counterpartsCRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = #altcoins = No CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH
Yellow line has shown to be VERY important
In 2021 #altcoin traded in the area for 1 month before it ended up breaking out to the upside
Broke & CLOSED under yellow line 11/22 - 1/23
-
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 Has broken the yellow line @ green arrows & has found support right underneath, done this 2x before today, SO FAR @ LEAST
This is 1x it hasn't had big reversal & HEAVY volume
Each bounce @ this area has been weaker
Hmmm
-
Volume has picked up but it is not what it was before
Could this be waning interest in the space?
-
RSI looking better, positive divergence
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has HUGE favor vs #altcoins atm
CRYPTOCAP:ETH not shabby either
SEC & FUD has hurt this sector, shame
Hard to call direction atm
$TOTAL 3, ALTCOINS, ares in wait mode while $BTC adjusts#ALTCOIN are in an important position to BREAK UP or BREAK DOWN
The yellow line is VERY IMPORTANT
Redrew the lines we had before as CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 (No CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) hasn't found its low yet (although may be basing)
Volume is reducing = good (less selling as it lowers is good)
RSI looks good
Lots of resistance but if #BTC moves higher then #altcoins should PUMP, pump hard