TOTAL 3 Update - Aug 15 2024in the previous analysis it was stated that 565B is an important level and losing this level can lead to touching much lower levels, something that actually took place and #TOTAL3 touched 470B as well !
The recent choppy upward move in #BTC and the rest of the market was most probably a retest of the broken key levels and we can see that just like BTC's case, TOTAL3 has failed to push above the supply zone.
Since BTC is probably heading for 50,000 low again, TOTAL3 will also dump. 4H close below 546B level shall be a further confirmation for the downward move.
Total3
Crypto Altcoin market cap - daily chart viewTOTAL3, which measures the market cap of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin and Ethereum, is currently sitting at a crucial support level. This is the third time it has tested this zone, making the next few weeks critical for the future of altcoins.
For any chance of an altcoin recovery or the start of an alt season, a strong reversal is needed. If TOTAL3 can bounce back from this level, it could spark new interest and momentum in the altcoin market. However, if it breaks down further, we could see more weakness across the board.
I'm hopeful that we'll see a reversal in the coming weeks, which could reignite the altcoin market.
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GreenCrypto
TOTAL3 - Bulls taking a napTOTAL3 began forming a descending parallel channel (Bull Flag) on March 31 and has been trading within it.
We recently had the third touch at the top of the channel, but it failed to break, showing signs of exhaustion indicating a greater probability of decline in the short term.
I will continue to monitor, but I only believe in all-time highs for altcoins when this channel is broken, but I wouldn't be surprised if we visit 450-480B before that happens.
TOTAL3 - Total Altcoin marketcap | Headed in the right direction
Altcoin marketcap is currently trading inside the channel and it's been inside the channel since 2024 with market cap reaching the peak in first quarter of 2024
Currently the marketcap is around the resistance line and expected to break out from the resistance zone.
we can expect a clear bullish confirmation after the price breaks the $750B barrier.
By the end of 2024 i'm expecting the altcoin marketcap to reach 1T
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GreenCrypto
Total 3: Alts about to see fresh lows, then real bull run startsI sold out of all of my crypto yesterday because when I looked at the chart, I realized that we've started the final selloff before the real bull run begins.
As you can see from the chart, after the run in 2021-2022 we've been in the process of correcting.
It's my view that this year's run was corrective, not impulsive like many are thinking-- and that altcoins will hit new lows by the end of 2022.
I've shared a lot of bullish altcoin charts recently, but I've changed my view and am not bullish anymore. I don't think we'll see large bounces, I think it's going to be a rather quick path to new lows. Lows that you didn't even think were possible. This will be the greatest buying opp to exist in crypto and because most people are about to hold alts all the way down, they won't have any cash left to buy the bottom.
It's going to make people never want to invest in crypto again because this last move will be one of the biggest fakeouts in crypto and people will lose a lot of money.
However, after we hit the support levels on the chart, it'll present the greatest buying opp of any cycle. I think we go from ~200B to $2.5-4B when this next run starts.
I think we'll bottom before 2024 ends. The next cycle will go until the end of 2026.
Get prepared...
Bitcoin All Time High NOT PRICED IN YETFor weeks now, I've been talking about why the all time high for Bitcoin is NOT YET in. (Proof here)
Here are the main reasons why.
👉 Elliot Wave Theory
I've been discussing EWT for many weeks alongside with the bearish M-Pattern that marked the beginning of the corrective wave (3-4). Once the corrective wave finishes, which I expected to be a multi-month playout, the final impulse wave up awaits us (4-5).
👉 Bitcoin-Dominance Increasing & ALTS Bottom
Considering MANY alts have seen bottom patterns after corrections (as discussed in the video), its safe to say the dump is over. But BTC.D is still increasing... If you want to further understand WHY this is a good sign, see HERE:
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KUCOIN:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
Why ALTSEASON 2.0 is HEREIf you've been following for a wile, you'll know I've been speaking of Elliot Wave theory and cycles - and how, from a macro perspective, we are currently in a multi-month correction before another impulse wave up.
By looking at the TOTAL3 chart, as discussed in the video, it seems likely that this may only be the BEGINNING for altcoins... and you'll see why.
Even though multi-month corrections can be demotivating, patience rewards the faithful!
Check out yesterday's analysis on Altcoins that are strong right now despite the recent dip:
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
TOTAL3 Chart IdeaALTS are screaming buy here.
- Weekly RSI is below 50
- Stoch Weekly RSI is at the bottom
- TOTAL3 is sitting at 0.618 fib level on weekly
- Rising wedge on BTC.D in weekly TF has been broken down and retested
- ETH ETF is launching next week
Super bullish for ALTS atleast until Oct 2024
Potentially huge rally in $SEI brewingMy chart is a pair analysis, showing the ratio of SEIUSDT to TOTAL3 (multiplied by 10^15 to make scale visible). It shows that SEI is a "high beta", "momentum" coin relative to the rest of the market and trades very cleanly, respecting moving averages.
I see a potential for SEI to outperform the market by as much as 500% over the coming weeks/months. Could mean anything between 10x and 100x in absolute terms, assuming the market rallies as well. The trigger would be a break of moving average to the upside.
$4 arbisomeone say something about defi summer?
oh yeah, that was me.
---
im predicting arbitrum hits $4.50 into august.
---
structure is simple,
airdrop came up in 5 waves,
has since corrected in 3 waves down through an expanded flat.
expanded flat is labeled as wave (b) for strategic purposes.
some might label it as wave (2), but not me,
not this time.
---
buy arb here (market order)
tp $4+
sl 0.499
🌙
defi summerthis chart portrays the total market cap of the defi dominance.
it's currently sitting at 3.98% with an inverse h&s on a weekly timeframe.
my projected upside target sits at the ath of about 7.95%
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the last meaningful defi summer we experienced was in 2020.
☀
let's make this one count.
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i'm projecting this defi market cap dominance to hit 8% into the presidential election where a soft top will likely be created.
i've shared a lot of plays over the last few months with our members, and we're just chilling into november.
---
tldr; hodl into a 3-4 month long alt season, and tp into the presidential election.
BITCOIN VS ALTCOINS Since the beginning of 2023 BITCOIN has been on a relentless upward trajectory. As the highest market cap cryptocurrency it often sets the tone for the entire market. When Bitcoin goes up it tends to drag the rest of the market up with it and the same when Bitcoin falls is the general rule of thumb.
This post is to showcase the difference between Bitcoins market cap (TOTAL) Vs the Altcoin market cap which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) . As the market leader Bitcoin is often the first mover and that can be seen in the chart on the left, we have at first glass a mirror image on the TOTAL3 chart on the right but with a few key differences:
- When Bitcoin fell from its ATH in November, price found it's bottom at the previous cycles ATH as seen by the blue horizontal ray. Whereas the altcoin market continued to drop below its previous ATH by another 19.67% . It's an important difference because it shows that altcoins are worse off in a bear market when compared to Bitcoin, and they start from further back once the Bullrun arrives.
- We can see that both charts are very similar, the next biggest difference is clearly the progression made in this Bullrun so far. Bitcoin has already moved past its "right shoulder" of the head and shoulders price pattern, TOTAL3 however is still some ways off that mark, the chart shows altcoins have a 38% gap between current level and the top of that "right shoulder" .
The reason for the gap in the race can be explained the same way each cycle because they're exactly the same patterns each cycle. Bitcoin is the first mover as it is the biggest by market cap, the same cycle of capital injection happens each and every time:
BITCOIN ----> LARGE CAPS ----> MID CAPS ----> SMALL CAPS
Profits get rotated into the next more risky investment over and over until the blow off top and retail are left holding their positions all the way down. This will most likely still be the case this cycle however there is a new player on the field...
BTC ETF's...
This is new and exclusive to this cycle and I believe this will partly change the dynamic of the cycle when compared to years gone by. With over $10 BILLION DOLLARS of net inflows into BTC the institutional buyers are now here in a much bigger way than ever before, how will this disrupt the money flow? It could prevent profits from rotating somewhat into the large caps, but not completely. Naturally the ETF providers will have a large stake in the holding of BITCOIN and are going to be less inclined to sell when the cycle looks to near its end as they are still providing the service to their customers. Having less sellside pressure will help BTC hold its value.
The altcoins may get the negative side of this as less profits in theory will rotate into smaller cap coins and result in a smaller 'Altseason" . This is the cost of institutional adoption. There is always the possibility of altcoin ETF's but that is another discussion. For now I can see altcoins playing catch up later this year and going into 2025.
Altcoins ready to dump soon.The market cap saw a significant rise from 2017 to 2021, peaking above 1.2T USD.
This was followed by a sharp decline, and subsequent fluctuations between 2021 and 2023.
There is a prominent dip into a highlighted blue zone around late 2022 to early 2023, suggesting a strong support level.
Future Projections (2024-2031):
The projection line indicates a rise in market cap approaching 800B in 2024-2025, touching a region marked as "Buyside Liquidity."
A recommended shorting point is marked in early 2025, suggesting a peak before a decline.
The market cap is projected to dip back into the blue support zone by 2026.
Another significant drop is anticipated around 2027, reaching another highlighted grey support zone, where a buy opportunity is suggested.
Annotations
Short here: Indicated near the projected peak in 2025, suggesting this as an optimal point to short the market.
Buy here: Indicated in the projected dip around 2027, suggesting this as an optimal point to buy.
This analysis can guide investors in timing their trades based on historical trends and projected market movements.
TOTAL 3 is bearishThe main structure of TOTAL 3 is bearish.
A trendline is break down. It is now below the resistance (flip)
By maintaining the supply, it can move towards the targets. The targets are clear on the chart.
Closing a daily candle above the invalidation level will violate the analysis
Note that the financial market is risky, so:
Do not enter any position without confirmation and trigger.
Do not enter a position without setting a stop.
Do not enter a position without capital management.
When we reach the first TP, save some profit and try to move the stop continuously in the direction of your profit.
If you have any comments please post them, comments will help us improve our performance
Thanks
Detailed Analysis of Altcoin's Market DynamicsRecent Market Performance
From October 2023 to March 2024, the altcoin market experienced significant growth, increasing from a $314 billion to almost $783 billion market cap—a remarkable 150% rise in just five months. Such rapid growth often leads to market corrections, which many retail investors find challenging to navigate. Recently, the market corrected by 29%, dropping to around $559 billion. This correction is considered healthy following the substantial growth phase.
Historical Market Patterns
Examining past trends provides insights into future market behaviors. For instance, in late 2020 and early 2021:
- Bitcoin Surge (October-November 2020): Bitcoin's price doubled from $10,000 to $20,000.
- Altcoin Lag and Subsequent Rally (December 2020 - January 2021): While Bitcoin surged, altcoins remained stagnant, causing investor disappointment. However, two months later, altcoins experienced a massive rally, tripling in market cap within a month.
This pattern of initial stagnation and subsequent explosive growth is reminiscent of current market conditions, where investor fatigue often precedes significant gains.
Near-Term Market Predictions
Key upcoming event: ETH ETF Launch on July 2nd
- Unlike the Bitcoin ETF launch, which did not trigger an immediate price surge, the ETH ETF launch is not expected to cause a dramatic market reaction on the day itself.
- The next 3-4 weeks are projected to be relatively sideways or bearish for altcoins, with a potential market reversal and new rally starting around mid-July.
Current Market Cap Scenarios
Two potential scenarios for the altcoin market cap leading up to and following the ETH ETF launch:
1. Reaching Blue Zone $534 - $550 billion market cap and bouncing.
- This is less likely unless there is bullish sentiment in the market, particularly if the $550 billion level is reached before or just after July 2nd.
2. Dropping to the $480 billion region (Green), testing the weekly moving average 200, and then bouncing.
- This scenario seems more logical, particularly if it happens around mid-July. Such a drop (another 15%) would likely induce market panic and exhaustion, setting the stage for a significant reversal.
Long-Term Outlook
Despite the short-term uncertainty and potential for further declines, the market is believed to be near its bottom. The long-term prospects for altcoins appear positive, with the market potentially reaching $1 trillion and setting new all-time highs. Therefore, even buying at current levels is expected to be beneficial in the long run.
Conclusion
The altcoin market recently grew a lot but then corrected, which is normal. Historical trends show that big gains often come after such corrections. We might see more sideways or downward movement before a big rebound around mid-July. Even if the market drops a bit more, it's likely near the bottom, and buying now could pay off in the long run.
TOTAL 3 - Can do +30% move versus #BTC pre halving #ALT runThis chart Total 3 minus the 3 biggest stablecoins
OVER the price of #Bitcoin
If this number is going up so are your #altcoins
We have a clear double bottom forming
just a matter of clearing the neckline to confirm.
Also interesting to note how the 0.786 Fibonacci was front-run by eager investors looking for Risk assets.
The Massive Potential of June's BULL-RUNNow that all of the speculations are pointing to the approval of the Ethereum ETFs , along with the positive CPI reports this week, it's safe to assume that we're about to break out of the current accumulation period.
After +60 days of correction, everyone is eager to explore the potential of the next bull-run, so let's delve right into it. HOLD YOUR BREATH!
- STAGE ONE: MAKING A NEW HIGHER HIGH
In case you haven't noticed, on the 4th of this May, we have already broken out of the downtrend that lasted since the first day of April. However, we haven't made any higher high yet, so the bearish structure is technically still valid.
Thanks to a whole bunch of good news and won rounds for crypto in the regulatory and judicial war, starting with RIPPLE surviving court and -hopefully- ending with the Ethereum ETFs approval, a break of the bearish structure seems inevitable to me, leading to a surge towards the 700B milestone.
This is going to significantly refresh the alt-coins market, making up for April's harsh losses.
- STAGE TWO: SELLING THE ETHEREUM ETF NEWS
Now that things are looking greenish for the bulls, it's time for the exchanges to make money too. A minor correction and a retest of the 700B level would be reasonable, liquidating a ton of long positions, reigniting the trauma of the resistance that ended the February - March Mini bull-run and shaking more and more hands.
And of course, there's the excuse of 'selling the news' for the exchanges to use before liquidating the crypto Futures market.
I expect the traditional Alt-coins (ETH, XRP, ADA, etc..) and AI coins to perform extremely well at this stage.
- STAGE THREE: THE JUNE BULL-RUN
May wasn't as tough as we had expected, right?
Well, this cycle is just getting started surprising us. As June approaches, Alts should see positivity due to the impact of the adoption of Ethereum. And of course, the largest piece of that green cake will be handed to the holders of any Alts related to Ethereum.
We should see AI coins continuing their dazzling performance, promising projects related to RWA and Solana's competitors performing really well at this stage.
I expect this stage to end when Ethereum makes its new ATH and as July approaches, then we should see Bitcoin taking back the lead and making its REAL ATH. Because.. you know.. 73K wasn't a real ATH (whispers).
In my opinion, this scenario can be invalidated in two cases ..
First case is if the Ethereum ETFs get disapproved.
Second case is if we somehow revisit the current cycle bottom (highlighted on the chart).
So that was it! My humble advice?
- DO NOT use leverage, you don't need to challenge the exchanges and risk your capital. Enjoy a happy and calm June by buying your favorite coins on the Spot market.
- DO NOT hold your alts for too long after Ethereum makes its new ATH. Bitcoin has to take back the lead and make its way to a new ATH. Don't worry, you will get many new opportunities during Bitcoin's bull-run.
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
$TOTAL 3 or ALTCOINS are looking betterCRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = NO CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH > is about to go nuts, IMO.
We spoke on the #BTC top some time ago & many #ALTCOINS cratered 50%+ after that. OUCH.
Since then, we have turned somewhat bullish, few weeks ago.
RSI looks okay & $ Flow bettering.
IMO look into #crypto #AI & #Gaming
Altcoin Market Cup 🚀 up to $3T 🔥Hello, dear friends! 👋🏻 Take a look at what I've prepared for you today!
💥 Coin Market Cup (Total3 - excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) 💥
The chart displays the total market capitalization of altcoins.
What can we see here? At first glance, the cyclic nature of price behavior is striking! 🧐By overlaying several Fibonacci tools, we clearly see the potential!🚀
It can confidently be assumed: the altcoin market is ready to surpass the $3 trillion limit by the end of 2024. Sustainable cycles, demonstrating repetitive circular motion, confirm this confident forecast.
What we've seen confirms not only the technical component of the market but also its fundamental aspects. Repetitive cyclical movements serve as an indicator of structural changes in investment behavior, reflecting a wave of interest in alternative assets. This signifies growing confidence in the altcoin market and its important role in the global economy.
What can You say? If you found it interesting, stay tuned for more updates and subscribe to stay with me!🫶
Thanks for Your attention
Always sincerely
Yours Kateryna💋
Alt Season Is Quickly ApproachingLet’s wrap up by taking a look at our Total3 chart which includes all alts except ETH. This shows a strong bullish bias. We’ve broken to the upside of our triangle, retested the top of our triangle as support, and are now using that strong PoC from our VRVP as support along with our 50 & 100 day SMA. I love to see all of this as it signals good things to come from our alt space ahead.
Total3
I continue to remain long in alts with almost 100% of my total public portfolio. My followers and I are at 11 wins with over 35% profit per trade. Our average trade is 11 days. Though these wins are great, I expect them to be blown out of the waters soon. Don’t miss out. The best is yet to come.