Bitcoin and Crypto Market Selloff Analysis (Buy Now or Wait?)On the one hand, this was a needed mini selloff, likely liquidating more leverage out of the system and resetting funding rates.
BTC trying to hold $68k and ETF money still goes brrr...
Will money flow slow, or we get another big push up Monday?
Lots of buy order blocks around $60k up to GETTEX:64K and the crypto day traders are shorting now with that target in mind.
I do expect resistance at the former Market Cycle (Total Market Cap) at $3T.
At least many altcoins are holding here at their 21 day EMA's.
Also a few standouts looking good here for DCA buying.
What do you think?
Totalmarketcap
Crypto Market: Is the Bubble Bursting or the Bull Run Ongoing?The total market capitalization of the crypto market increasingly seems like we might soon see a reversal for Wave 3, as there isn't much room left for upward movement. We would reach the all-time high in market capitalization just above the 361% extension for Wave 3. Thus, we don't believe there can be much further upward movement. Afterward, we should see a significant decline, potentially into the target area of Wave (B). We're not trading this directly; it's included purely as support for our analysis. Then, we'll look to develop Wave (1) further and see one final push. We're essentially anticipating that after this downturn in market capitalization for Wave 4, we might see a surge in altcoins before a more significant and prolonged correction downward for the overarching Wave (2). It's important to remember that we are in an overarching Wave III, indicating significantly rising prices in the future.
⚠️ Market Overview - TOTAL Cryptocurrency Market Cap ⚠️📊 Analysis:
Current Level: TOTAL (Cryptocurrency Market Cap) is at a level last seen towards the end of the last bull run.
Resistance Zone: Currently in the $2.50T - $2.67T area of resistance, and it's extremely overbought.
BTC in Price Discovery: BTC is in price discovery, and uncertainty exists regarding how high it might go.
Risk Management: Traders need to be cautious and manage their risk tightly over the next couple of days.
Next Resistance: If $2.67T is breached, the next resistance is the November 2021 all-time high of $3T.
Potential Support: A rejection could lead to a test of the next area of support at $2.05T - $2.17T.
🌐 Note: Market dynamics can change rapidly. Stay informed about the overall market sentiment and be ready to adapt your strategy accordingly.
Total market cap
This analysis is grounded solely in the data, timeframes, percentages, and ratios observed during the previous bull run. While acknowledging that an 11 trillion valuation may not seem realistic, the possibility becomes more conceivable with the entry of BlackRock and numerous other significant companies into the market. This could potentially reshape the landscape and lead to unprecedented growth.
Total Crypto Marketcap --- PLan Your Exit#TOTAL Crypto has already doubled from it's bear bottom, to it's most recent high.
We are almost in 2024, well into crypto summer now
time is really running out to prepare your portfolio for the inevitable Bull market euphoria phase.
I bring this chart up just to remind everyone, that this cycle has potential to be one of the worst in terms of multiple expansions we have seen so far.
We have gone from exploding 340X in one cycle.. to 33X the last cycle.
I expect this time round it will be a single digit multiplier.
We have to hope and pray we do indeed break the previous ATH , and we don't double top at 3 trillion.. of which there is no guarantee!
My realistic target is around 5 Trillion Dollars, which may sound pessimistic at only 3.5X from here ... but that means your Altcoins adding at least a Trillion dollars of value from here!
Optimistically i'm looking at around 7 trillion dollars, no mean feat!
BTC.d at 30% would equal BTC 2.1 Trillion or $110k per coin.
Long Term Crypto Market Cap PredictionThis is my quick but accurate ;) crypto market cap prediction for the long term.
My target for the current bull run is a 6-8 trillion $ market cap by the end of 2024. When we reach this region/area, I will be taking significant profits and looking towards the next phase in 2026/27.
Bitcoin 2020 Recent High Break Out Vs Present Bitcoin - Not A Prediction
An interesting comparison to the price action that took place in Nov 2020 (post May 2020 halving)
On one serious note, it reinforces just how important the 21 Day Moving Average is. If lost, we can expect at minimum ST pull back.
#bitcoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC
A quick reminder about the previous Wedge/Pennant on Total chartSo I started charting this pattern in 2022 it was a falling wedge but on even larger time frames I realized it was not just a falling wedge but a bullish pennant as well. We broke up from this pattern all the way back at the beginning of 2023 and as you can see here on the monthly chart, price action did what it usually does once it breaks up from a large timeframe wedge and we are already well on our way and have unquestionably validated its breakout. What struck me as astonishing about ths pattern was that its measured move target was all the way up around 17 trillion. However not long after charting the target, maybe a couple months at most, news broke I think possibly via Forbes that Black Roc was saying 15 trillion in liquidity was going to be soon flooding into the crypto markets. When I read this it suddenly made the 17 trillion target make perfect sense. Now that we are seeing these ETFs cause huge pumps week after week I wanted to kind of repost a slightly cleaned up rendition of the previous version of this chart I posted to make it slightly easier to keep an eye on price action as it continues its way towards such a massive target. Also to remind people that this is where we are heading. Interestingly enough, another bull pennant we broke up from on the larger timeframe logarithmic chart also had this exact same target as its full measured move. So I suppose there is a chance that since it will take 2-3 bull markets for that previous bull pennant tor each its fulll target tat ts possible for this current pennant to not reach its full target in the current bull run but instead the very next one. However at the parabolic pace and momentum we are starting to gain thanks to spot etfs, it’s very very plausible we can reach 17 trillion on the current bull run. I will be keepin a close eye on this target, the pi cycle top indicator, and my pitchfork of channels that tie multiple cycles tops and bottoms together for the best signal of when the top is truly in. *not financial advice*
The 1 month Linear Chart’s wedge target is nearing I just recently posted about the logarithmic wedge which is also a bullish pennant and how it will take us much higher, but also wanted to post a chart with an update of the other wedge we also broke up from back at the beginning of 2023 (shown here in pink). It has now been a little over a year since the breakout of this monthly time frame pattern and like clockwork the price is doing exactly what I had anticipated it eventually would all the way back then. We can see price is now nearing the wedge target of 2.493 trillion for the total crypto market cap. This is the next zone to watch where we could potentially experience some sort of correction after reaching. I went ahead and also included the flagpole of a pennant that is better visualized on the weekly chart and it is telling us that eventually we should also reach its target of 3.436trillion as well. Odds are very good we will see consolidation in between the 2 targets. Being a 1month pattern, that is why it took so many multiple months to get close to reaching this first target, and it can also take several more months before reaching the next higher target is well even though they both broke out at the same time. Looking forward to pressing play on this chart a few months from now and eyeing the price action inch closer to the top target. *not financial advice*
TOTAL MARKET CAP: HISTORICAL CYCLES!People are talking a lot about altcoins in the cryptocurrency market. They think there might be a big season coming up where altcoins, which are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, could be worth a total of $5 trillion by 2025. This idea comes from looking at past data and patterns in the market.
Historical
Let's look at some past data:
It took about 762 days for the total cryptocurrency market value to be higher than it ever was before.
If things happen like they did before, we might see a new high around December 2024.
The last time prices went really high lasted for about 1066 days, and this time it could be similar.
Fractal Analysis:
This is a fancy term, but it just means looking for similar patterns in the past:
Between 2014 and 2015, prices stayed pretty steady for about 610 days.
Then, from 2016 to 2017, the value of altcoins shot up to around $400 billion.
After that, from 2018 to 2019, there was another period of steady prices for about 609 days.
Now, from 2022 to 2023, we've seen about 548 days of steady prices, which might mean a big change is coming.
Future Projections:
Based on what we've seen before, here's what some people think could happen:
They're guessing that altcoins could be worth $5 trillion by 2025, which would be a huge jump.
They think this might happen around September or October 2025.
Conclusion:
Looking at all this information, it seems like altcoins could be in for a good run in the next few years. If they really do reach $5 trillion by 2025, there could be some big opportunities for investors. It's something worth keeping an eye on as things develop in the cryptocurrency world.
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap - English FrenchToday, The Weekly candle closes and as we can see right now, there is a lot of indecision about which direction the Crypto Market is going to go.
On the MACD and StochRSI, it is overbought on a Weekly chart and this does point towards that long awaited drop.
We are in a Classic area of resistance from the 2021 Bull run and once we break through this, we are on outr way to a New ATH and there is little doubt that Will happen. The question is when.
Accumulation is happening in the Market and some ALT coins have moved well but the OTHERS Chart ( The top 120 coins Minus BTC< ETH and other top coins) is also overbought now.
It is best to not be surprised if we do see a pull back....
We are in a Very similar position to where we were in June 2019 and if you ignore the "Covid" pull back, we saw a total drop of around 48% over 12 months and while I doubt very much that this will happen again, I think that after Halving may be flat for a while.
People have been saying "It is different this time" and I am one of them.. I have seen 2 previous bull runs and been drawing detailed charts for nearly 5 years.
Right now, The Bulls still have th eupper hand....
We could see a push higher tonight - 25 Feb 2024 - We may not - the trick is to be ready for Both circumstances.
IT IS DIFFERENT and we will continue learning.
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Aujourd’hui, la bougie hebdomadaire se ferme et comme nous pouvons le constater en ce moment, il y a beaucoup d’indécision quant à la direction que va prendre le marché de la cryptographie.
Sur le MACD et le StochRSI, il est suracheté sur un graphique hebdomadaire, ce qui indique une baisse tant attendue.
Nous sommes dans une zone de résistance classique par rapport à la course haussière de 2021 et une fois que nous aurons franchi cette zone, nous sommes sur la bonne voie vers un nouvel ATH et il ne fait aucun doute que cela se produira. La question est de savoir quand.
L'accumulation se produit sur le marché et certaines pièces ALT ont bien évolué, mais le graphique OTHERS (AUTRES) (les 120 meilleures pièces moins BTC < ETH et autres pièces les plus importantes) est également suracheté maintenant.
Il vaut mieux ne pas être surpris si nous constatons un recul....
Nous sommes dans une position très similaire à celle où nous étions en juin 2019 et si vous ignorez le recul du « Covid », nous avons constaté une baisse totale d'environ 48 % sur 12 mois et même si je doute fort que cela se reproduise, je Je pense qu'après la réduction de moitié, cela peut être stable pendant un certain temps.
Les gens disent "c'est différent cette fois" et je fais partie d'eux. J'ai vu 2 courses de taureaux précédentes et je dessine des graphiques détaillés depuis près de 5 ans.
À l’heure actuelle, les Bulls ont toujours le dessus....
Nous pourrions assister à une poussée à la hausse ce soir - 25 février 2024 - Ce n'est peut-être pas le cas - l'astuce est d'être prêt à faire face aux deux circonstances.
C'EST DIFFÉRENT et nous continuerons à apprendre.
Crypto TOTAL updatePutting this up as reference for myself mainly. just what im seeing here momentum repeat wise. looks very similar to two past price action points. one more than the other rather obviously.
lets see if this works out. would mean one more pop. coinciding with my ORIGINAL 55k ish btc medium term top. question is do alts go nuts at that point or get absolutely smashed when btc dumps.
Crypto Market approaches a $2 Trillion Market CapTotal Crypto Market Cap - CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
This was one of the first charts I shared here on Trading view in April 2023.
✅ Above 10 month moving average
✅ 9 months into a 29 month bull run timeframe
The crypto industry is just short of a $2 trillion market cap valuation.
I hope this chart helped get the wind at your back for this long term bullish trade. I have more to come.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin
PUKA
TOTALTOTAL - is the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies.
We have come to a big resistance at 1.732. If we manage to break through and gain a foothold higher, then we will consider the targets indicated by blue lines.
The crypto market as a whole may still show growth. But you need to be extremely careful, since the cryptocurrency has already grown well.
Also you can ask for only 1 altcoins analysis and i will try to do my best to cover as much as i can✍️
Cryptocurrency - At A Crossroads...Reposting this just as the historic Ethereum Merge gets underway. (Original post from July was removed)
Since the March 20 low when the market cap was a measly 91 Billion, the crypto space added a whopping $2.7 Trillion before topping out in November 2021, an impressive 2700% jump.
The market has since corrected 74% to the tune of $2.25 trillion. We are now testing 2018 highs along with the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
We could also see that the space found support at the 0.382 during the 2018 correction.
The market cap has travelled in this ascending channel for about 5 years, it has now reached the critical red dashed trendline , you will notice that it tends to act aggressively here.
Price initially found some resistance before breaking through in November 2017. In August the following year, it failed as support and a 60% drop followed.
The trendline then proved to be resistance with a firm rejection in July 2019, price finally broke through in January 2021 before going on to make new all time highs.
Another crucial support being testing is the Simple Moving Average (Blue Line), we could see that price found support here during the 2018 bear market low,
& once again during the March 20 sell off. Should the SMA act as resistance, we may tread the bottom channel for some time.
Should the SMA, trendline & the 0.382 hail to hold, the 0.5 Fibonacci lines up nicely with the bottom support trendline, this is about a 50% drop from current levels. (My Ideal Load Up Zone)
If we look at the correction that took place in 2018, a similar 88% plunge will place us right at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. (Reload Zone)
On the flip side, should price action remain in this ascending channel, the bottom trendline will line up with 0.382 in January 2024.
It also marks a similar duration between the 2018 top & March 20 lows.
Over the last 18 months, it has certainly paid to be a US dollar bull, whilst everything else has fallen to pieces (it seems).
With its largest interest-rate increase in 28 years, the hawkish Federal Reserve signalled a strong determination to fight inflation, even if it ultimately takes a toll on the economy.
This has undoubtedly affected cryptocurrency. Despite Bitcoin's inflation hedge narrative, a speculative asset class was never going to be spared.
“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Back in July, the Fear & Greed Index had broken the record for uninterrupted extreme fear.
The index had been in a range of extremely negative sentiment for a record 72 days.
The extremely negative sentiment had been in place since BTC collapsed from the $38,000 level on May 5.
Today, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index sits @ 27/100, narrowly avoiding extreme fear levels.
Are the bulls ready to turn the tide? Or will the bears continue the assault & send us to the abyss?
With PI Cycle theory flashing a bottom, market ripe with fear, miner + retail capitulation, calls for BTC to hit 0, market oversold with RSI+MFI @ record lows, tether dominance showing weakness, in my humble opinion - its time to DCA into positions.
There is no doubt, an interesting few years is upon us.
Good Luck!
Speculative Setup, DYOR.
CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP: Low VolatilityThe Crypto Total Market Cap on the weekly timeframe still has low volatility, which is shown by this Mean Absolute Deviation Percentile Indicator, which is a measure of volatility. If volatility itself remains extremely low, like it still is, then that means it only has room to expand, which means that the variation in returns is higher, which means bigger moves in the upcoming future.
While volatility itself isn't directional, a big move will most likely occur soon, and you would want to bet on the side that gives you more returns, which is clearly towards the upside in the weekly timeframe.
TOTAL MARKET CAP update - choose your poison degenTOTAL MARKET CAP update - choose your poison degen
update
i am going to use this as a guide, breakdown is quite clear, just keep a level head and if we start diving below; pull the plug. if we go up for now again then you can thank ,,, this crazy market.
zoom out on the map to see the only two points in history that have the same momentum signature.
gl