Toys
Long HBII'm learning all this- please do your own DD and feel free to criticize my work
I jumped on entry too soon but it was 50% of my original position intended and yes - if it ends up bouncing from here then i'll just put my SL on my entry , if not then i'll update the idea
I'm thinking of little long term hold on this -like December or so considering Holiday season should in theory help. Yes, it's in long term downtrend but even in a downtrend we get waves.
Playing Mattel's momentum?Technical
MAT broke and sustained its 200sma resistance a couple of days ago.
Todays candle above the trend (pink trend line) are confirmation MAT longer downtrend might be over.
Fundamental / News
December 15th tariffs were removed, easing pressures for them. However, 25% tariffs will remain on $250 billion
Chinese imports and 7.5% will be put on much of the remainder.
Mattel (MAT) said Monday, December 9th, that it plans to offer $600 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2027 to institutional buyers, subject to market conditions and other factors.
Delayed tariffs "for Christmas" might help HASBRO
News/fundamental
The USTR says that the tariffs on some items, including “certain toys,” will be delayed until Dec. 15.
September is a key shipping month for those companies as they prepare for the holiday shopping season, when the majority of the industry’s business occurs.
Hasbro told CNBC earlier this month that it would have “no choice but to pass along the increased costs to our U.S. customers” if the tariffs were put into place.
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Great risk reward ratio.
Bearish Trendline in HAS (Hasbro Inc) during March 2019As an exercise of basic trading, I identified in HASBRO shares (last 3 months) a bearish trend line, specifically in March. The trend line is drawn from March 19th to March 22th. However, if you can see the charts for 1 year, you can see it's the lowest point after December in a bullish trend line.
JAKK - expecting rally on earnings releaseJAKK has very decent fundamentals. The whole industry seems to be doing okay, leaving JAKK lagging behind.
If we look at all earnings releases in the past 3 years, they work the same way:
1) if there's a strong prior move up, the stock crashes on earnings release (even if it beats expectations 6-20%)
2) If there's a strong prior move down, the stock rallies on earnings release (again, almost regardless of hit/miss on estimates)
The Q2 earnings release had a scenario very similar to what's happening right before Monday's Q3 release - long rally up, sharp retracement, then flat and big rally on earnings release. As you can see in the chart, it's in the same setup and if they print a decent number, we should be going up.
Top toys: Hasbro is way cooler than MattelFor what it's worth, this father of two thinks that Hasbro's current lineup of toys is much cooler than Mattel's.
Investors seems to agree.
Shares of Hasbro (HAS) are near an all-time high. Mattel (MAT) has been one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 this year. It's the misfit toy stock of Wall Street.
And it's been that way for a few years.
Why is Mattel struggling so much while Hasbro is hot? I took a trip to the Toys R Us in Times Square to find out.
Hasbro has a license to thrill. Simply put, Hasbro has the upper hand on Mattel when it comes to toys and Hollywood.
Hasbro makes Transformers. The fourth movie in that Michael Bay franchise came out this summer and has grossed more than $1 billion worldwide. I got a chance to play with the Grimlock dinobot. Ferocious!
Hasbro also has the rights to Marvel and Star Wars toys. With a new Avengers movie AND a new Star Wars film due out in 2015, Hasbro is poised for another big year thanks to geeks like me preparing to send a chunk of our disposable income to Disney (DIS). (The House of Mouse owns Marvel and Lucasfilm.)
Mattel has ties to Disney as well .. but not for long. It currently sells Disney Princess toys, which now includes Elsa and Anna from some little movie called "Frozen." But Mattel lost out on a chance to renew the deal. Hasbro will start to sell the Princess toys in 2016.
But it's not just about action figures from blockbuster movies.
Mattel's biggest problem is that its Barbie brand has seen much better days. American Girl, also owned by Mattel, is no longer helping to make up for some of the slide in Barbie sales either. Barbie sales plunged 21% from a year ago in the third quarter while sales of American Girl-branded products fell 7%.
Hasbro, on the other hand, has several successful franchises for girls, including My Little Pony, FurReal Friends and Littlest Pet Shop.
(Of course, I'm not suggesting that boys can't appreciate these toys ... or that girls don't want to play with Iron Man and Optimus Prime.)
Wheels are hot. Blocks are not. Even though Hasbro and Mattel are both trying to capitalize on new toy trends, older brands of theirs are still going strong.
Hasbro owns NERF -- which has been around since 1970. My brother and I enjoyed throwing NERF footballs and boomerangs in the backyard when we were young kids and beating each other up in the basement with NERF fencing swords when we were older.
Let's face it, NERF is still cool. There's little in life that's more fun than pretending to be Katniss or Hawkeye and shooting foam arrows from a giant bow. Trust me, I tried.
To be fair, Mattel still has some cool "legacy" toys too. In fact, Hot Wheels and Matchbox were some of the few bright spots in its most recent quarter. Sales were up 4%.
Mattel also has some potential with its recently acquired Mega Bloks line of construction toys. Some of the sets are geared toward fans of popular video games, such as Activision Blizzard's (ATVI, Tech30) "Call of Duty" and "World of Warcraft" as well as Microsoft's(MSFT, Tech30) "Halo."
But it's hard to look at Mega Bloks without comparing them to that other toy company that's famous for plastic building bricks. Mega Bloks is no Lego. And that's why everything is not awesome for Mattel.