TQQQ
TQQQ - Closed by 1/2 FR 169.94Cutting the last of TQQQ loose for today @ 161 x 2.5
Solid ride, more to come.
Hopefully, an RT to SELL again, if Not we Hold what
we have as we Position into Underlying NQ ES VX.
Reducing Instruments to 3.
84.78% CASH - Patiently waiting to see if Weeks 50% Trades
into Friday.
TQQQ reaching some Resistance (SHORT)Analysis based on long term trend lines and forming wedge. Moving averages starting to curl downward. Daily RSI is very high. Bought Put 11/5 dated 11/19 for $157.00. $2. No stop loss.
In hindsight, it would probably be more advantageous to purchase a longer-dated put such as 1-month out, December 10th, and raised the price target close to the current share price, about $169, so that the risk of being out of the money at expiration is lower. The premium in that case would be more like $10. Loss due to theta decay would decrease. However, in that scenerio, a stop loss would be necessary due to the significantly higher premium. Also in that scenerio, it would be necessary to take into account the larger spread, about $0.50. Entry limit as close to the bid price as possible and wait for order to fill is a must. For the $2 put for 11/5 at $157, the spread was very small, about $0.02.
NQ - 4Hr + Macro / Gamma - Delta Accident - JPow Fools AgainThe Macro Data Calendar for Today:
Non-Farm Payrolls
Average Hourly Earnings
Unemployment Rate
Coupons - $8.425 Billion 2s to 4s.
______________________________________________________
ZN continues to Trade the Lower End of the Range.
The BOE Stick saved the US Treasury Market, although FED FUNDS...
Disagree - www.cmegroup.com
Oops... Again - www.cmegroup.com
Powell Blindsided everyone with the Taper while FED FUNDS...
Accident moving forward in TIME.
2x Ooops.
______________________________________________________
Our Thesis was the Federal Reserve would begin to move forward,
quickly forward to Increase FED FUNDS far more rapidly than the
Retail Trader/Investor anticipates.
This Thesis has been ongoing since JULY 2021.
2024 to 2023 to 2022 to now 2021.
We were Correct - 100% Correct.
Thereby creating a large Event taking the Equity Complex to its knees
and down to the 200SMAs, where they would find minor support for
a Counter-Trend, only to reverse and Trade to closer to the 400SMAs.
Nothing, and I am quite resolute in this Thesis, has changed.
The Probability has increased substantially - Exponentially.
______________________________________________________
Disagree?
Up to you, it is your Capital @ RISK.
We continue to mount a large Position in Options for the IMPENDING
reversal.
______________________________________________________
NQ will be in 8/9 today, the Price Objective we stated for the Profit
Target... was met during Globex @ 16424. SOLD NQ on a FR.
Resistance has Traded First.
______________________________________________________
I have been repeatedly Asked in PM @ TV why I am a "Bear" in this
Mania.
Answer: Continue to chase Gamma/Delta, we Fade it, there is no
Top Picking is ongoing, there is, however, an acute understanding of
how this ends, and it will.
Positioning for it, taking heat... taking losses, all part of the entry.
We hold no Underlying Sells in the NQ ES YM RTY.
We do Hold Derivatives in the QQQ SPY SMH TQQQ TSLA QCOM
TLT AMC AAPL and continue to build on these Positions from
November to January.
Top pickers have at it, wading in is more our style and we know
how to do so with a minimal negative effect - Hedge Underlying.
______________________________________________________
We see a very large Market Dislocation directly ahead.
Agree/Disagree - immaterial.
It is our Trade Plan and it is not changing, not remotely.
______________________________________________________
The unwind will be of extreme velocity, most will indeed miss
the majority of the Negative Price Actions.
Presently - 32% Positioned into the impending SELL.
______________________________________________________
Trade Safe everyone - HK
TQQQ - C Wave PossibleElliot and repeating patterns show we may be due for a dip in TQQQ before we start the next 5 part rise.
18 month analysis of trying to trade the patterns shows I'm better off just buying and holding. +11% trading actively vs. +34% buy and hold, but have to be ready for coming short term dips
$VIX - Key Levels and Analysis - Another View - Daily Timeframe$VIX - Key Levels and Analysis - Another View - Daily Timeframe
—————
I posted a VIX study earlier today on the 1W timeframe (it’s the post directly before this)
Now bringing it down to the Daily chart - another bearish MA crossover. Always a deep spike when these averages cross. YIKES…
I hate being THIS bearish… but I do not think is is good.
Trade carefully guys. I personally love volatility, but just know your limits - it could get bumpy
——————
I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you.
My average is in Grey
Red = Resistance
Green = Support
Blue = trendlines
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
$VIX - Key Levels and Analysis $VIX - Key Levels and Analysis
—————
The longer that VIX stays under the MacD centerline the more Violent the Spike is when it does cross up. Normally we see corrections much more often that return stocks and etf’s back to the 180EMA. The fact that we have not seen a crossover AND that we are SO FAR above the 180EMA makes me believe that this will be quite a violent correction.
——————
I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you.
My average is in Grey
Red = Resistance
Green = Support
Blue = trendlines
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
NQ - Fridays / ES YM RTY TLT ZN AMC TQQQ CLNQ is the last to break.
It's Friday.
The FED is providing $8.34 Billion in Coupon Purchases.
1/4 to 1/2 Size today.
We will be watching until 10AM EST, to see IF there is
support of any kind.
Selling pressure yesterday was significant, but
again... it's Friday.
Commentary from 2 prior Sessions does not change.
Have a good weekend - HK
NQ1! - Double Diamond - NFP EveLarger 2 Hour Pennant formed by Twin Diamonds over the course of the week. Diamond #1, fueled by the ADP miss, proved to be a continuation of the uptrend. Diamonds serve as both continuation and reversal patterns. NAS with support at the 2 hour 50 SMA and Resistance at the 2 hour MBB.