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TQQQ

Another Taffer in the Shadows?This is the NEW YORK COMPOSITE INDEX. Please see my previous post just a couple of weeks ago about this drop and what to expect from here. Based on all the data I can muster to analyze, the correction is not over. It's possible that we rally and/or drift sideways into the election but this looks very concerning to me.. I keep hearing from too many people that the Fed has their back. They believe the Fed will hold their hand to victory into an eternal upward rally. I am not one to dismiss the melt-up scenario and hyper-inflationary end game, but this is what I see right now.. I see the potential for another drop. The bigger question- what happens after this drop? Do we have a 08-like melt-down or is that just another dip to buy in this bull run? We'll take it as it comes. Please be smart, patient, and immune to public sentiment. Think for yourself but study, study, study!
TVC:NYA
by gghsusa
Quarterly rotation out of Tech and into Small-Mid cap stocks. Equally weighted S&P 500 (RSP) and IWM had the smallest decline Thursday and Friday compared to other indices. This could signify that the sell-off was mostly over valued tech stocks and not a broader market sell off. Compare this to the price action in June, where RSP and IWM fell significantly, indicating a broad sell off of the S&P 500. Using this chart, I measured the distance between the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 on June 10, just before the sell off. We can see that there is a 13% variance between the two indices. Compare this to August 12th variance of 21%. Considering that the RSP had a significant decline, we can conclude that there was a broad sell off of small-mid cap stocks and that money was then invested in large cap tech stocks (FANG). Both of these declines happened in a two-day period but there is a big difference between the percentage lost. If you add up all of the declines in each of the indices, we see total loss for June 10 to be 31.4%. This is much less than that of August 12, which declined only 17.6%. What is most interesting is when we look at the weighted average of these declines. It is almost exactly inverse! Meaning that in June the Nasdaq decreased the least but in August it decreased the most. The same is true with the Russell decreasing the most in June but the least in August. I believe that going forward we will see greater percentage gains in IWM compared to the other indices. However, all of this is speculative and subject to change. But if you follow the wave counts for the S&P 500 and Dow you know we need a significant push to complete wave 5. A further decline in these indices would invalidate the wave count and cause significant bearish momentum. In conclusion, assuming that this recent move was due to rotation I am bullish SPY and IWM and neutral QQQ. We should still see gains in tech but not as much as small to mid cap stocks. To confirm this analysis, I will assess the weekly gains of each index over the next several weeks. If we do not see an increase in small-mid cap stocks then money is leaving the markets and not being reinvested. This would be very bearish.
AMEX:RSPLong
by Harry_Hood
5
NQ1! Nasdaq futures analysis (resistance & supp, Elliott) 02-09What we saw today is an expansion of what we saw on previous days: -Strong up movement corrects fast when meets an important resistance, and then retakes to completely recover the correction. From an Elliott perspective, today's movement is similar but from a higher degree than what we saw previously Therefore I would consider this a wave 4 of something one degree higher of what we had been watching After a wave 4 begins, it's very difficult to determine its end. Therefore tomorrow's perspective is not clear at all, it's better to wait outside
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tandroide
MU: Micron Keeps Moving Up - Possible TargetsMicron chart keeps rallying towards its earnings day on 09/29/2020 (confirmed). Trading at $47.80, the price is close to its second target of $48.13 (50% Fib level). Potential higher targets are at $51.46 (78.6%) and $54 (100%) levels. Scenario analysis: ADP employment numbers to be reported on Sept 3rd may help with further short-term price advancement, if positive. However, September has been a volatile month historically. A broader pull back in major indices is possible between next week and end of this month. If such correction occurs, MU chart may pull back as well, possibly down to $44 level, to resume its rally toward price levels above $50 with general market move higher in October - November time frame. If MU chart makes its way to $51 level before the earnings, that could be a good opportunity to book the profits and reassess possible price movements at that time.
NASDAQ:MU
by tradexchart
NQ1! Nasdaq futures analysis (resistance & supp, Elliott) 01-09Today's movement is similar to yesterday's: ->Force up at the beginning ->Finds important resistance and retreats heavily (yesterday it was relatively slow, today relatively fast) ->It then retested and defeated the previous resistance (both time with speed) ->It ends market hours moving up again Therefore the analysis is not very different from yesterday's: ->We could see important movement up tomorrow However, from an Elliott perspective: ->The important retracements of 31-08 and 01-09 are different in nature (one slow, one fast) ->They could be showing waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 of a wave 3. ->Today's market hours up movement could be wave 5 ->In that case we could see a wave 4, that could find important support and therefore behave like the one in 26/7-08 What are your thoughts? Thanks for reading, thanks for commenting
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by tandroide
NDX to SPX ratio - tech wreck 2.0?Keep watch of this ratio-We're looking like 1999 based on this ratio. Tech to go hyper before tech wreck 2.0? The recipe is slightly different but it's starting to smell the same. Even if this plays out, we should see the NASDAQ cool off & consolidate for a bit..perhaps we'll see some weakness going to the Fall prior to election with increased volatility in the markets. I'm looking for some type of cycle trough in the markets in the next 2-3 months. While I seriously doubt it's going to be a lower low (than March low), it's not off the table. Cycle lows occur very quickly whereas cycle peaks roll & roll. March is a great example of just how quickly cycle troughs can occur. We witnessed the fastest & deepest drop in market history this year which proved to be a fantastic buying opportunity. Let's see what the markets offers next. Another correction in markets might be met with even more life-support from the Fed.
TVC:NDQ
by gghsusa
18