Topping pattern/candles starting to form as expected...SPY Stock market showing signs of reversing but still needs several more days to form top. But who will lead the decline and next rally? DOW or NASDAQ?
Here is an article talking about it.
SP:SPX AMEX:SPXS AMEX:SPXU NASDAQ:QQQ SQQQ AMEX:DIA SDOW UDOW
TQQQ
NASDAQ undervalued, still in strong LT bull marketWhat's up TV friends, a lot of people talking about cashing in on equities - however, even though it seems like they are expensive, a long term view of the market shows that we're still at the bottom end of a long term channel. We've seen extremely overvalued, extremely undervalued and we're definitely neither at this point. I'm expecting a strong finish to this bull. Probably 2035 before end of equity run and a switch to commodities. More on this later. Of course anything is possible, but for now the trend is our friend.
Powell and trade war truce may shorten correction $ERX $TQQQAs described in my previous note on the S&P 500, there have been two major market corrections since the end of the Great Recession. They were periods of high volatility and a lot of repricing of stocks for 140 days or more.
In both cases they started with:
1. A complete reset of the daily RSI ( Relative Strength Index below 20)
2. The S&P 500 holds below the 200 day MA
3. The 50bar EMA passes below the 100bar EMA
They end when:
1. The S&P 500 0.54% holds above the 200 day MA
2. The daily RSI holds above 50
3. The 50bar EMA passes above the 100bar EMA
The daily RSI is currently above the trend-line and above 50. The S&P 500 today will open above the 200 day MA and the 50 day EMA should cross above the 100 day EMA within three weeks assuming this new trend continues through Christmas.
When I recently posted on this topic I said "Consumer confidence is high but the only way for this ship to turn around quick is for the Fed to change strategy, that will not happen."
It now looks like it may happen. Additionally, Trump and Xi struck a 90 day trade war truce.
Tech and energy sectors are the most beat up in recent weeks, all of these developments are bullish for these two sectors. Trade opportunities should present them selves in TQQQ and ERX .
NQ Futures Long Trade IdeaWell - volatility has been crazy but the bulls are coming back as strong as the bears were last week.
The 7320 target reached and has even been exceeded.
Here is a price action scenario I can see occuring and would be looking for the following trade setup:
Directional Bias: Long
Price Target: 7420
Good Entry: 7200-7220
Risk/Reward: 30 points max risk (below 7170 invalidates) / 200 point reward.
Oh the virtue of leveraged ETF during a bull market!! Nasdaq100 (NDX) Vs ROM (Double leveraged US tech ETF) Vs TQQQ (Triple Leveraged US Tech ETF).
To all the naysayers.. that leveraged ETFs don't track their underlying index by the amount they're leveraged to. Look at the following long term chart. In a bull market, they more than adequately do!!
NDX- x3 return since march 2010
ROM- x8 returns since march 2010
TQQQ- x33 returns since march 2010