TQQQ
Creating MillionairesWell, some would call me crazy. But that's my long term view:
TQQQ made 200x since inception in February 2010 until his top in November 2021.
Now, in my opinion, we are in the middle of a Bear Market.
My expectation is that this Bear Market will last till December 22 until June 23.
After that the next Bull market should start.
My expectation for the Nasdaq 100 is to trade around 47.500 Points after this 10 Year Bull Market, which would take the TQQQ to around 1000.
This would equal a 100x from the Bear Market lows, which I expect around 10.
Of course no one can predict the future but I would also be happy with just 50x in 10 Years :D
And I really think that this is a possible scenario.
So here is my plan:
in December 2022 i will start investing all of my money into TQQQ.
For the next 5 years i will put everything into TQQQ too.
AND finally in 2034 I'm hopefully a multimillionaire.
See you guys in 2034 :D
(not a financial advise)
The Day Ahead: TQQQ, GDXJ, USO, GDX, FXI Premium SellingIt's Friday ... the 13th. Here's what's shakin' in exchange-traded fund premium selling ... .
Top 5 Options Liquid ETF's Ranked by 30-Day IV:
TQQQ 22.9 IVR/60.4 IV
GDXJ 23.6/38.9
USO 46.4/38.8
GDX 26.0/33.6
FXI 14.8/31.4
Ideally, you want to have IVR at >50 and IV at >35% in ETF premium-selling land, but you can't have everything in this market ... .
Broad Market Shortest Duration <16 Delta Strike Paying 1% of the Strike Price In Credit:
IWM, the January 19th 151, paying 1.58 at the mid (14 delta)
QQQ, the January 19th 325, paying 3.44 at the mid (15 delta)
SPY, the February 16th 385, paying 3.93 at the mid (15 delta)
Me, Personally
Currently, I still have quite a bit of broad market on in fourth quarter expiries, with the majority being in the December monthly and the end-of-quarter December 29th. (I have one IWM straggler on in the November monthly). I've begun to deploy out a smidge into the 2024 first quarter), but may just sit on my hands this week depending on whether I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
Because of that, I may dabble small with TQQQ as an engagement trade (and to see what all the fuss is about). Pictured here is a 16 delta short put at the 30 strike in the December 15th monthly paying 1.01 at the mid which I'll do as a starter position and then work it from there as I wait on my other positions.
I also already have a GDXJ covered call on (See Post Below), but may add a short put to give me a little extra sumthin' sumthin' on that play.
NQ1! Bearish ForecastAfter the very high non farm payroll data but slowing wage growth as well as the unemployment rate which is still in stable numbers, the increase at the end of last week showed that investors considered good economic conditions.
apart from fundamentals, from the technical perspectives a bullish candle was formed at the weekend, but by looking at these two aspects in addition to geopolitical conditions, oil, gold, Yield, Dxy and also after looking at the volume profile indicator I speculate that there will be a reversal and will break the channel
QQQ Short under $372I took a short at $372 using credit-calls. The thesis is that NASDAQ:QQQ has made lower highs creating high-resistance liquidity and has shown a propensity to cheese-knife down below prior swing-lows.
This is a bearish run.
There is a swing-low at $348 that is a possible bounce area; but I think that NASDAQ:QQQ intends to challenge the $372 zone anyway.
This zone is an old swing low that was taken out which makes it a high resistance area. Fading a rally to this price makes sense.
The thesis is valid if the price action toward $372 is indirect and drawn out. The thesis is less valid if price moves strongly toward $372.
The prior swing-high at $380 is much higher resistance and presents a great short opportunity that could open up if $372 becomes challenged.
For now selling premium on the short side at $372 makes sense.
If we reach $348 a buying opportunity may form.
Lastly - 27th SEP took out the 18th AUG Swing-low thus I think the market structure is still bearish which makes any swing-higher to be fadeable unless it starts to take out prior swing-highs.
The Day Ahead: GDXJ, FXI, EWZ, GDX Premium SellingIt's Friday, and the last trading day of September ... .
Here's what's at the top of my IV screener in the exchange-traded fund space:
TQQQ, IVR/IV 23.3/64.2%
GDXJ, 22.7/36.4% (2.52% yield)
FXI, 12.5/33.4% (2.26% yield)
EWZ, 11.1/31.9% (10.9% yield)
GDX, 26.0/31.5% (2.23% yield)
You'll notice that everything is still pretty much in the lower one-quarter of the IV range over the past 52 weeks, but there are a few instruments have popped above 30% 30-day. If you're big on divvies, EWZ stands out, but one potential drawback for some may be that it only distributes biannually in June and December.
In the broad market exchange-traded fund space:
QQQ, IVR/IV 22.2/22.3% with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 321, paying 3.30 at the mid)
IWM, 21.6/20.8%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the December 15th (the 162, paying 1.72)
SPY, 22.1/17.1%, with the shortest duration <16 delta strike that pays 1% of the strike price in the January 19th contract (the 385, paying 3.91).
You can naturally opt for shorter duration and be more aggressive with your delta, with the trade-off being that you may end up being assigned shares more frequently or have to manage in-the-money's via roll, which is not the funnest way to manage a tested short put, depending how deep in-the-money it is. (I'm talking mostly about what I do strategically in my retirement account, which is short put/acquire/cover or "wheel").
Me Personally ... .
I pretty much mechanically put on the shortest duration <16 delta strikes paying around 1% in broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) on a weekly basis, so am going to do that today, assuming I don't already have rungs camped out where I'd want to pitch my tent with a secondary consideration being whether the contract represents a better strike than what I've currently got on.
And, in spite of the short term pain I'm experiencing in my attempt to acquire TLT shares at these levels, I'll probably also add in a rung (or two), since I have a maximal buying power that I want to devote to that position, and I'm not there yet. The probable result at the moment is that I will be assigned various lots at various strikes and will have to cover (i.e., sell call against) at various durations, some of which may be quite long-dated with my current highest strike at the 94 (in the November 17th) and the lowest at the 84 (in the December 15th). Naturally, were I to have followed my initial plan as to when I wanted to start picking up shares, (See Post Below), I would be "less red" ... .
The Day Ahead: IWM, QQQ, TQQQ, GDXJ, FXI, EWZIt's Friday and a Triple Witching to boot!
Well, IV isn't great here pretty much across the board for us premium sellers. Nevertheless, if you must play (and some of us gotta), here's what's shakin' ... .
Broad Market
QQQ, .8 IVR, 17.8% 30-day IV, with the shortest duration in which the <16 delta is paying greater than 1% of the strike price: December 29th.
IWM, .7 IVR, 16.8% 30-day, with the shortest duration in which the <16 delta is paying greater than 1% of the strike price: December 29th.
SPY, .9 IVR, 12.9% 30-day, with the shortest duration in which the <16 delta is paying greater than 1%: (Ugh), March (there is no February monthly yet).
Exchange-Traded Funds
Ideally, you want to hit these when IVR >50 and IV is >35%, but IVR is at rock bottom, with most skimming the very low end of their 52-week ranges. Sometimes, you just have to settle for what the market gives you.
TQQQ, 8.5 IVR; 52.6% 30-day.
GDXJ, .6 IVR; 31.6% 30-day.
FXI, 7.9 IVR; 29.4% 30-day.
EWZ, 2.8 IVR; 26.7% 30-day.
Fortunately, all of these are <$45/share, so you will be small in terms of buying power effect with the natural exception of the leveraged TQQQ, which your broker may require be cash secured on margin (which naturally makes it less sexy in that environment from an ROC %-age perspective).
Stay small and don't get all of your powder wet.
$NDX big move incomingOriginally posted something like this, roughly, 4hours ago
TVC:NDQ is closing in on the 2023 term trendline again.
Weekly this is shown more clearly.
Back to daily charts:
LOWER HIGHS
HIGHER LOWS
What pattern is this? Symmetrical Triangle!
What does that mean? #NDX has a big move coming this month.😱
#stocks
$NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakdown support of Rising Trend Channel in the medium long term.
🔹This indicates a slower rising rate at first, or the start of a more horizontal formation.
🔹Approaching resistance at 15800, which may give a NEGATIVE reaction.
🔹Once break upwards through 15800 will be a POSITIVE signal.
🔹Technically NEUTRAL for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
◦ DT: Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ DB: Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
◦ HNS: Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ REC: Rectangle | 🔵
◦ iHNS: inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
GOLD vs NASDAQ- Which is better ?Over a period of time what is better to trade and invest in a gold futures based ETF or instead
the TQQQ , a leveraged and popular ETF tracking the NAS100 and NASDAQ. To analyse, this
I put NUGT on the daily chart and superimposed the price action of TQQQ.
Starting one year ago, NUGT had the better price action in an upward facing megaphone
pattern reflecting high volatility and topped out 70% over the last August start in a double top.
After its retracement, it is now positioned perhaps for bullish continuation.
TQQQ on the otherhand since a low at the end of 2022 has been in a less volatile trend up
topping out at 50% last month but now also with a bit of a pullback and retracement.
I conclude that one is not better than the other and that a lot depends on a traders
appreciation of market tops. Swing trades in both managed well may give diversity to
the trades and allow for profitable outcomes. As a well established gold bug, however, I
believe that gold will shine moving forward especially if a BRICS currency is launched with
a real gold standard.
$DJI & $NDX very important levels (TSLA trade = fire)The TVC:DJI trade we did ( NASDAQ:TSLA was great) was nice. In & out.
AMEX:UDOW gave back all gains
TVC:NDQ holding better, NASDAQ:TQQQ bit higher (risk reward was good but not for holding longer term)
Point is, NOT RISKING, not convinced downside's over.
AMEX:DIA almost oversold & very close to a VERY IMPORTANT AREA.
Will revisit risk soon, once there.
This is also an important area for $QQQ.
ATM both weaker, could be mid day reversal. We'll see.
QQQ pulled back to support for LONGWithout regard to market noise, newsand other rumblings on the 1H chart with
two sets of anchored VWAP bands overlaid QQQ hit the upper bands about
about July 19th. On the retracement of about 35%, price is now in the range of
the mean VWAP line of the short-duration anchored VWAP and the first upper
line of the longer duration anchored VWAP. IT is also slightly above the interval
volume profile's POC line. That is to say there is tripel support and confluence
My analysis is the QQQ will rise in the upcoming week. I will take a long trade
targeting 378 (40%) 386.5 ( 40%) and 392 (205) - I may take a position in SQQQ
call options for insurance and risk mitigation on the trade. I see a resumption of
the bull run for technology and this trade will test that vision.
QQQ - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Double top formation NEGATIVE signal broke support at 376..
🔹Support at 334 and resistance at 385.
🔹Technically NEUTRAL for medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
FNGU- the leaders of the pack will come back first LONGFNGU is triple leveraged ETF of the titans of the NASDAQ; I expect it to come back front
of volatility in the market quickly as its constituents are the leaders here. I hope to exploit this
for 10% before COB for the trading week in the next two days.. A volume profile and mean
anchored VWAP using metrics employed by institutions and those executing with blocks
of voume. Analysis and target levels are on the chart for pureposeful brevity. Trade on !
TQQQ reversal shows early tech market recovery LONGOn the 15 minute chart TQQQ took a dive down through some relative volume voids
shown on the volume profile into a double bottom also showing a transition from
high relative selling volume into some decent buying volume . I can conclude that TQQQ
is in early reversal and will head the other direction through the same volume void which
could allow for a rapid ascent. While I made profit on SQQQ today, for tomorrow I
aspire to make money on TQQQ. I love volatility just as I loved yo-yos as a kid many years
ago. The concept of converting kinetic energy into potential energy has analogies in the
markets - coiling to store momentum and the triggering to unleash it. The chart shows
pertinent levels of the trade plan. As a bottom feeding grinder I am looking for 4% of range for
tomorrow .
QQQ Recovering from a Pullback LONGQQQ had a bad day yesterday reacting to adverse financial news with a deep
correction as technology stocks were hit the hardest. On the 15 minute chart,
price dropped to the bottom outer band in the double BB indicator and then
reversed and heading inside both bands and then gapped up in the open of the
premarket session. The dual RSI indicator shows the lower time frame line in
green crossing over the higher time frame red line. I conclude that price could
run up to 385 especially if it can cross the middle band at 380.
Is QQQ ready to continue after a minor pullback?On the 4H chart, QQQ has been in a trend up for the entirety of this year
reaching 42% YTD. Of late, QQQ has had a 2-3 day pullback correcting
a decent uptrend over the prior week. On the Relative Trend Index,
while the signal is below the mean line, there is all the more upside
and the overall trend is positive. The dual time frame RSI shows weekly
RS high and steady over 80 while the lower time frame of 3H as the blue
line fluctuating between support at the 50 level and 80 and presently
a 50 in the pullbck. I analyse QQQ as ready to continue its overall
trend up. I will take out additional call options for a strike of $385
to expire on August 18. Over the past day this option gained 33% and
had a bid/ask spread of about 1%. I will set a stop-loss of 10% while
anticipating a profit of 150%. Once hitting the anticipated profit before
the expiration date I will take one-half of the contracts off the table
and close the rest 1-2 days before expiration.
The TQQQ and BTC/USD CorrelationThe BTC/USD (Bitcoin to US Dollar) and TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF) can sometimes show correlation, though it's important to note that these correlations can change over time and are influenced by a multitude of factors. There are several reasons why this correlation might occur:
1. Risk Appetite: Both Bitcoin and TQQQ are considered high-risk, high-reward investments. Bitcoin is a volatile asset class, and TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that aims to deliver three times the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. Therefore, when investors have a high appetite for risk (often in a bullish or 'risk-on' market environment), both Bitcoin and TQQQ could perform well. Conversely, in periods of risk aversion (bearish or 'risk-off' markets), they could both decline.
2. Technological Optimism: The NASDAQ-100 Index, which TQQQ aims to amplify, is heavily weighted towards technology and innovative companies. Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital currency, is often viewed as a vanguard of technological and financial innovation. Therefore, positive sentiment towards technology and innovation could drive both BTC and TQQQ higher.
3. Market Liquidity: In times of ample market liquidity, such as periods of low-interest rates or quantitative easing by central banks, risk assets like Bitcoin and leveraged ETFs like TQQQ can be attractive to investors looking for higher returns.
4. Speculative Trading: Both Bitcoin and TQQQ are popular among speculative traders, given their potential for significant price movements. This common trader interest could lead to similar trading patterns and thus correlations in price movements.
However, it's important to remember that while Bitcoin and TQQQ can show periods of correlation, they are fundamentally different assets with unique risk profiles. Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that is often subject to regulatory news, technological developments in the blockchain space, and changes in sentiment towards digital assets. TQQQ, on the other hand, is tied to the performance of a specific equity index (NASDAQ-100), and its performance will be influenced by factors like corporate earnings, economic indicators, and changes in interest rates.
Investors should consider these differences, and the potential for correlation to change or even disappear, when building a diversified portfolio.
Will SPY continue to rise? LONGOn the 30- minute chart, SPY is in an uptrend continuing from the end of the last
trading week. I see this as continuing for the following reasons on analysis:
1. The Lorentzian AI machine learning indicator's last signal was a buy signal. Given its
specific accuracy of 73% as the table reports, I suspect the uptrend will continue until
a sell signal prints.
2. The VWAP anchored to July 6th shows price riding the upper VWAP bands suggesting that
buying pressure exceeds selling pressure over the past week.
3. The MTF RSIs are steadily rising with the lower TF above the higher TF and no evidence
of weakening or bearish divergence.
4. The zero-lag MACD shows lines crossed and are now parallel and about to cross over the horizontal zero line.
5. In the last trading day, the price ran up then momentum stalled for profit-taking and consolidation to rest for the next.
6. Trading volumes have been at or above the running mean throughout the recent past
showing higher than usual trader interest which bodes well for volatility to be played for
profit.
7. If I were looking for chart patterns, I would say that SPY is currently a high tight flag. It is expectant of bullish continuation
Overall, I have further interest in trading call options with a low time interval until
expiration. I will use intraday pivots on low time frames to select entries and pick
strikes based on expected moves in analysing VWAP bands or Bollinger Bands.
TQQQ - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout 44 resistance and next resistance at 47.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️