WARNING POSSIBLE BULL TRAP QQQ I'm not going to bore you with economic data, we all know the fed will continue to raise rates until the economy shows signs of weakening. The fed WILL pivot and we will see the market turn. So a weakening economy should be bullish for the market.. sounds crazy but bad is good now.. Please if your expert at Elliot wave I www.tradingview.com would love to hear your opinion on my TA. Feel free to ask any question
1HR TIME FRAME: (GREEN)
WAVE 4 : $280 range
WAVE 5: $242 range
WAVE A: $280 range
4HR (YELLOW)
WAVE 3: $242 range
WAVE 4: $280 range
WAVE 5: $226 range
Daily (Pink)
WAVE 3: $229 range
WAVE 4: $294 range
WAVE 5: $209 range
TQQQ
TQQQ update mid terms Well we talked about hitting this level in our last post and the target was hit, again I'm only looking for short positions. (Below 200 ema)
Currently we are overbought on the MFI and if u look back this has marked a good opportunity to short the market.
TSV started showing bearish divergence
ADX validated the trend. Which is bullish but still a little early to confirm
Currently I'm seeing a bear flag unfolding and I have the target on the chart.
Bullish scenario here is that we created a wave 1 and 2 and target being the $24 range.
I don't see this playing out unless the cpi data comes in better than expected on Thursday.
I also listed the sub wave count for this last leg down
Do yall like the daily updated or should I just update the previous ones?
If yall have a different opinion I would love to hear it
thanks
god bless
qqq Elliot wave........history tells us NOV-DEC BULLS RULEwww.tradingview.com
Forming a wedge just like we did in the past, we broke out and our target is $21.5 to $24.63 which is exactly 38% fib extension (wave 4),
also if your into chart patterns we take the largest part of the wedge and we use it as a guide to take profit, it correlates with wave 4
VTI massive monthly Head and Shoulders VTI has a monthly bearish divergence in RSI. There is massive head and shoulders forming. Headlines coming about how money is flowing in. I believe they just want money to flow in so they can have liquidity to dump into. The market has had the most orderly decline this year that I know of. I still believe massive downside is in store for ETF's, blue chips that haven't fallen yet (AHEM $AAPL) and oil as well after the fantastic year it just had. We have been goin straight up since GFC and now it's time to give some back. Hopefully not too much. First price target is green ray.
$TQQQ - V shaped recovery-As of the last 7 days, TQQQ shorts are capitulating whilst SPY shorts are increasing. The effect is a sideways crab market.
-2 months before, SPY shorts capitulated and instead built a massive short position in TQQQ never seen before in size. It looks like the switch over from TQQQ to SPY is currently in progress. As for the prediction of TQQQ going to $24.2 whilst also calling a crab market, that's just a hunch.
TLDR: This is more of a personal prediction. I threw some money at it in case something becomes of it. I would not suggest you do the same.
BULL OR BEAR? I'm gonna keep this short,
1. Extended wave 3 at 262% fib ex, @ $267
2. Shallow wave 4 retracement due to the extended wave 3 @ $284.16
3. Wave 5 is the same length of wave 1. @$261
4. Forming a descending wedge, waiting on a break out confirmation
5. Looking for WAVE A RETRACMENT BACK TO THE 50% FIB LEVEL @ $300
Extreme volatility in the AM
$SPY - The market might flash crash big time real soonAll because of this shocking discovery: imgur.com
I've never seen any stock go parabolic in stock hedging loans. Usually when a stock's heding loans spike, there can be a sudden rise or drop in price, it all depends on the situation and each case needs to be looked at differently.
The point is, i've never seen any stock's hedging loans go parabolic like this. I would be expecting that the market would be mooning from this at least in the short term as this thing rises. There have been instances where these spikes only cause the underlying to move once they've topped and whilst they're dropping, but not whilst moving upwards.
My point is that this is an anomaly, if the anomaly tops and then starts to drop, the market is going to move BIG time in either way and i don't see how any of this can be bullish especially with Covid being at an all time high in China, Rates being what they are and the supposed recession. So if i had to guess, yeah, this is a really really big move in hedging, like HUGE. Notice how even 2020 on the chart was not even comparable on what's going on here.
Second Example:
Here's a second example to see how other stocks move vs TQQQ and how even on the Log Scale Chart TQQQ has gone parabolic which is nuts.
imgur.com
So yeah, unless the next bull run is here, things are looking very grim for those people talking about optimistic Xmas rally one-sidedly to convince themselves that "market go up". I think market go down, big time and quite soon. I think there could be something setup for this just a bit after the 6'th of December, maybe on the week of the 13'th of Dec or generally in the next 15 days... SPY Dividends that usually cause everything to drop are coming really soon and we've just topped out on the absolute top resistance at $410... We're only going up if we do break $410... otherwise it's $385 minimum imo.
TLDR: Market maybe go down.
Obviously depending on the timing this happens with, other long plays will get destroyed along with a market move down. I'm thinking either next week during what should've been a short lived rally or the week after at most.
In truth i only know for sure that this is BIG. I've seen smaller spikes cause crashes or rallies... All i know for sure is that it's BIG and probably DOWN.
QQQ setting up ReversalQQQ has been downtrending however-
it broke through the mid-Fib levels which are now resistance
the Momentum Oscillator shows bearish momentum decreasing to nearly zero
the red dot on the center line suggests a squeeze is underway
recent candles are small range and nearly Doji
candles on the RSI Ichimoku are wide range and volatile
in general relative strength is rising in bullish divergence
Accordingly I will close the put options and open call options
with 48 hours of time to expiration at a strike 1% above current price.
TQQQ ahead of CPI reportI'm not gonna try and guess what the CPI data will be my gut tells me its gonna be higher but at that point I'm gambling.. If you wanna gamble go to las Vegas.. treat trading like a business am I willing to give back my 6%? no.
I sold my sqqq position early so I could be cash for this CPI report, as stated in the chart I have 2 scenarios posted. If its lower I expect the market to react in a positive way. If its higher I expect the opposite. Does the market always react the way I think it should? no
ADX is not respecting this recent downtrend (classifying it as a pullback) we need the ADX to increase if we want this downtrend to continue. Also keep in mind this is a lagging indicator so it might take some time
MFI is not showing oversold yet which could mean we still have more downside (continuation)
TSV bars are continuing to increase in size as price falls (continuation)
Watch volume closely, the last fed meeting we had a ingulfing green candle then a massive dump so waif for trend direction, In my opinion I think we are very close to a temporary bottom
I'm opened minded so as always let me know what yall think.
Thanks
God bless
NAS100 ReversalNAS has been falling in the past several sessions.
On the chart , the fib levels are drawn from the recent past swing high
to the swing low. An anchored VWAP is set at the swing high.
Price is currently just above the VWAP and the 0.5 Fib level.
These are both likely support for a reversal. I will look for volatility
and enter a long trade upon confirmation. MACD and RSI are both
showing bullish divergence ( Stop loss at the fib level
below the entry. Frist target is the upper band of the VWAP
and final target is the red line horizontal resistance)
$TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
Here’s an update on my buy orders on TQQQ… ultimately it looks like it might be a great put selling strategy and I might go that route as I just sold a decent size natgas position, but for now I still just have buy orders for shares… 10x at each level - I may not update this idea every single day, but I will try as often as possible and of course if they start filling…
Open orders:
Buy @17.64 exp. Dec 1
Buy @ 17.48 exp. Dec 5
Buy @ 16.96 exp. Dec 6
Buy @ 17.35 exp Dec 8
Buy @ 18.11 exp. Dec 9
QQQ Sustained Uptrend representing a retracement down to the Fib 0.382 level from the top one week ago
on the 30 minute time frame. Double bottom at the fib level. Additional confluence
from the anchored VWAP -3 stand deviations as well as now a gain today into the
price of the POC line of the local volume profile confluence into the VWAP.
Apparently, there are now buyers who will need to pause for the holiday.
This appears to be a rally of sorts for this index fund and a decent long setup.
The call options with Friday's expiration did quite well.
$TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
Ok, tonights Buy order @ 17.48 that expires Dec 5 is in…
All other open orders:
Buy @17.64 exp. Dec 1
Getting set up for the next swing... 💃🏻
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If you used the strategy I did a bunch last year and the year before that then this will look similar…
Basically every night I will be updating the new buy order for the next day… each day I will be adding 10 shares at the buy level (please modify this to your account size if you want to play, there is nothing wrong with trading one at a time until you see how the strategy works)
I will be using options at levels where I see fit but right now I’m losing out on some really great opportunities by not having these orders in place like I used to…
And if you guys haven’t seen this strategy before… you’re in for a treat… it might take a few weeks for you to see what I’m doing but once you see you’ll see how easy it is…
Always make sure to select GTC (good till cancelled) on your buy orders, and you might have to select advanced order to add an expiration date to your order.
And have fun, y’all…
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ALSO… I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
WARNING WARNING WARNING TQQQAlot to cover here but this is what i'm seeing
1. Remember we are still in a downtrend on higher time frames so be careful.
2. We talked about a potential bounce in my last post and we got it.
3. As of right now we are in a wave 4 which usually has the longest lasting pullback, we are forming a bullish channel or bear flag and if we break this bottom channel the target puts us at the exact wave 5 target we talked about 2 weeks ago
4. On the 4 hr we are creating a inverse head and shoulders that is pretty obvious, if we can maintain this bullish channel up to the neck line and break our target would be $28.50, (61% fib retracement )if this occurs that would mostly like mean our wave 3 could be a wave 5 where we would get that deeper retracement.
5. Indicators ADX is telling me this long push up has lacked momentum we are below 25, (bearish) PVT has gone flat while price continued to move up (bearish)
Thanks
god bless
$TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
Ok… So… I’m super excited to get back to one of my old strategies, but slightly modified… If you used the strategy I did a lot last year and the year before that then this will look similar…
Basically every night I will be updating the new buy order for the next day… each day I will be adding 10 shares at the buy level (please modify this to your account size if you want to play, there is nothing wrong with trading one at a time until you see how the strategy works)
Anyway, so tonights buy order for TQQQ is 17.64 x10 and this buy order expires on Dec. 1st…
Once the buy orders start filling I’ll be posting the sell order targets… but right now I don’t have a position… (I closed out my TQQQ position today for a small 6% profit)
I will be using options at levels where I see fit but right now I’m losing out on some really great opportunities by not having these orders in place like I used to…
And if you guys haven’t seen this strategy before… you’re in for a treat… it might take a few weeks for you to see what I’m doing but once you see you’ll see how easy it is… 💃🏻
TQQQ ahead of fed meeting 11/2/2022Traders it's gonna be a exciting week, so start preparing now.
There is potential that Wave 4 is not complete and we could move up towards the 50 or 61 % fib level, mind you those levels are not typical in a wave 4 especially with a extended wave 3 but it can happen.
On wednesday the fed will announce the next fed rate hike, i don't see the market making big changes until then, if they announce another .75 hike (which is likely), i see the market selling off. If they announce a .50 or they talk about being less hawkish in the future i can see the market selling off initially but recovering fast just enough to break the ascending trend line or maybe retest our support at the $20 range. This will liquidate long positions and open the door for big money.
Now obviously i'm not against idea of new lows i think it's very possible but it's important to always have a plan B, If we start getting rejected off the ascending trend line with good volume i'll be looking to short. If we break above the neck line with good volume i'll be looking to long. Volume is critical here, if you see large candles but lack volume there's a good chance its a fake out.
If yall have a different opinion i would love to hear it.
thanks God bless
“If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!”
― Benjamin Franklin
Take profits, Prepare for possible BULL trapwww.tradingview.com So just a friendly reminder that we are still in a bear market so be extremely careful trading against the trend! I closed my long position a little early to manage risk.
This is what i'm seeing, the last few large candle sticks have lacked volume behind it, which means we lack BIG money.
TSV showing signs of weakness and bearish divergence
MFI has went over sold and in the past this marked a pivot point to lower lows
Let me be clear i can't predict the market all i can do is prepare for it.
The area we are in a happens to be a strong resistance are, we also had a very strong run up without any pullbacks which concerns me. I can't say forsure if we will see new lows but at the very least a good pullback to previous support which is $19.50 area
Elliot wave calls for another wave down but elliot is not always perfect you have to adapt to the chart and find where u are. We Could have completed the wave 5 which means we could see high highs, to possibly the 50% or 61 fib levels, but for now i am keeping the wave 4 narrative
Happy trading and god bless
I will also share how i came up with the elliot wave narrative
www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com