SPOOKY OCTOBER!! Why i think we will see new lows! 1. So looking back on the chart when the MFI has hit over bought it has been a good time to short the market, in a downtrend when things become over bought it usually represents a good shorting opportunity
2. If you go back on our last leg down we hit a wave 4 @ the 38% fib level with a descending wedge breakout then dropped to new lows to wave 5 before rallying
3. We had obvious divergences on the MFI( started trending down as prices moved up) also on the tsv( your volume was decreasing)
4. I don't expect earnings to be any good this week and the market will react in a negative way, after earnings are done we should be priced in for the rest of the year, that being said i think november will be our rally month
This is just my opinion, now there is a bullish scenario to this, if we can manage to hold 19.50 support we can maybe see higher highs but as for now i see a lot of resistances,
Please if u have a different opinion i would love to hear it,
thanks
Happy trading and god bless
TQQQ
WARNING! WARNING WARNING QQQ BULL TRAP!So just a friendly reminder that we are still in a bear market so be extremely careful trading against the trend! I closed my long position a little early to manage risk.
This is what i'm seeing, the last few large candle sticks have lacked volume behind it, which means we lack BIG money.
TSV and MFI are both showing signs of weakness and bearish divergence
Also the MFI is oversold and if u look back in history on qqq it's been a sign of hard decline afterward.
This also happens to be a strong resistance area
Just my opinion here- I think we will have one more hard leg down before a good november and december months, if we dont get a lower low at the very least drop down to our previous support which is $269 area, elliot wave is not perfect you have to adapt and find where you are on the trend, currently i think we are in wave 4 because we retraced back to to the 38% fib level which is a key level, but that could change.
Please feel free to ask questions or if u have a different opinion i would love to hearb it www.tradingview.com .
thank you god bless
UP, UP AND AWAY FOR TQQQLets go baby, we are at the bottom, making new lows! Only way to go from here is 62.90 by July!
-SPECIAL NOTES-
1. I trade this stock with a very small percentage of my money, I am not dumb.
2. There is a ton of controversy on this stock, in my opinion it should only be day traded, not long term due to volatility decay.
3. Since there is so much misinformation on leveraged stocks, I decided to test $50 every 2 weeks from my paycheck and buy like a robot. NO EMOTIONS INVOLVED. This is a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy I am choosing to do.
4. Please be careful with your money and don't go all in because I said the stock is going to go up, it is still just guessing and learning.
Thank you!
TQQQ, 4 HrsNASDAQ:TQQQ
Disclaimer : I am not a financial advisor nor a registered investment professional. This content is for entertainment purposes only and is not investment, tax, or financial advice. Always do your own diligence and research. You are solely responsible for all investment, tax, and financial decisions that you make.
Updated Analysis on Tech (QQQ)This is the daily chart of SQQQ.
SQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders, therefore, use SQQQ to short tech stocks, or to hedge against a collapse in tech prices.
There are several bearish signals appearing in the daily chart of SQQQ, which hint that we may soon see bullish movement for QQQ and the Nasdaq.
First, there is decreasing volume in the daily chart of SQQQ, which shows that fewer and fewer market participants are opening new short positions against the Nasdaq. This is occurring even while the price of SQQQ continues to move up. This divergence is bearish and is usually the earliest sign that a reversal is coming.
Second, there are major gaps up appearing on the daily chart. Gaps to the upside on SQQQ have historically never failed to close back to the downside. Therefore these gaps should be viewed skeptically, as they fail to validate upward price action.
Third, the upper limit of the Fibonacci Bollinger Band continues to act as strong resistance, continuing the more than a decade-long trend whereby price cannot sustain itself above this line on any sustained basis. This line has mathematical importance, it reflects a level of price deviation where, after being reached, price begins to show a mean-reverting tendency back to the downside. In this case, SQQQ's mean reversion would be bullish for QQQ and the Nasdaq.
There are many other indications that are showing that SQQQ is too overextending, including the extremely over-heated Stochastic Heat Map.
The NDTH is also indicating that a very significant bottom is forming for tech and the Nasdaq. In fact, the Nasdaq is so oversold that the current levels have not been seen this the market crash of 2008-2009. Therefore, SQQQ has effectively priced in a significant recession. While a significant recession might indeed be on the horizon, if a significant recession does not ensue, then we can be fairly certain that a major short squeeze for SQQQ will occur:
However, the strongest bullish argument for SQQQ (bearish argument for the Nasdaq) is that weekly price broke through the Ichimoku Cloud for the first time ever. The only plus here is that the weekly candle is a spinning top and most oscillators are trending back down.
Regardless, with SQQQ being this historically overextended, it can represent a rare opportunity to buy QQQ and tech stocks before a massive short squeeze occurs. While anything can happen, and one should always use stop losses, this chart does not convince me that SQQQ is about to breakout much higher to the upside. Therefore, I remain a holder of tech and growth stocks for the intermediate-term.
Not financial advice. Anything can happen and trends can end.
Long term prediction for TQQQ Long Term prediction for TQQQ , risky making a prediction this far out but with total world fundamentals being negative i don't see us returning into a bull market BUT there is a bullish scenario in this TA but im waiting on a few things to unfold before posting, PLEASE if your a expert at elliots wave theory and u have pointers please let me know. Thanks! www.tradingview.com
Here's Why You Should Think Twice Before Selling TechThis is a 2-month chart of the Nasdaq US Composite Index (IXIC).
At the bottom is the Stochastic RSI which oscillates up and down depending on how overbought or oversold the market is.
There have only been a few times since its inception a half-century ago, that the Nasdaq Composite Index had a 2-month chart this overextended to the downside. The K value of the Stochastic RSI has actually reached zero.
If the 2-month chart closes at that level, it will mark a super rare occurrence that has only occurred twice in the history of the Nasdaq (the last time being at the bottom of the Great Recession).
I calculated the one-year returns for the Nasdaq one year (from low to high) after the K value of the Stoch RSI on the 2-month time frame dropped below the oversold line (to or nearly to 10). For the case of the Dotcom bust and the Great Recession, I selected the point when the Stoch RSI's K value first reached 0, which is its current reading and which is thus fairly comparable. Even during these significant economic downturns, buying at this oversold level produced decent returns one year out.
Obviously, past price action does not guarantee future price action, but history does tend to repeat itself. Odds are that ten years from now you'll probably be wishing you had bought into this oversold level.
Here are the one-year returns from the market bottom during the 2M period (when the Stoch RSI K value met the criteria listed above) to the market top of the 2M period one year later:
+95.78%
+36.47%
+31.24%
+78.89%
+20.17%
+69.50%
+27.14%
+52.36%
Mean: +51.44%
Not financial advice. As always anything can happen.
Tech is at a Significant BottomI'm surprised that no one on Trading View posted this chart today.
The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to 6.86 today. This means about 94% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq.
While anything is possible, it's highly likely that we are seeing peak fear, peak inflation, and market capitulation currently. This extreme level makes for a very good risk-to-reward setup for going long. My strategy is to place a 2x daily ATR stop loss on QQQ or TQQQ. It's likely if we drop below this level then we're in for a deep recession. Whereas if this low holds, then this is a major bottom for tech.
QQQ Uptrend BULL biasFrom the Daily Chart, QQQ is now in an uptrend above
the support of the daily SMA 50, 100, and 200 in somewhat of an ascending wedge pattern.
Distant support is the buy order zone while distant resistance is the
sell order zone above. Immediate ( and breakable ) resistance is
the POC of the volume profile.
I conclude that QQQ is in a sustained up-trend that could be entered
using a stop loss set just below the SMA 200 on the chart in blue.
What is your opinion? NASDAQ:QQQ Please comment.