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TQQQ

Time to Buy Stocks? TQQQ Analysis -73% There is something to be said about speculation. Here we have the QQQ 3X fund, testing a key area. Not only are we testing a key area, but "large-risk" (largER anyway) is currently sitting -68% from the all time high.... Even more weird, when the whole world economy was shut down in 2020, TQQQ contracted -73.28%; oddly enough, at least in this view... we bounced at... -73.28%. (these measurements could be off by a few percentage points I just measured it once and they happened to be the same measurement. Anyway, this looks like a good risk reward entry. I have bought and will continue to provide updates. For now, I have bought with the expectation that price will test the all time high from here. God bless.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by ChiefMacro
8
Here's Why the Tech-Led Selloff is Likely Over (for now)In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis. The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week and the previous week, the weekly candle was very strongly resisted at this level. Now, the weekly and monthly momentum oscillators started to move in the opposite direction. This will not only make it much harder for SQQQ to pierce the line, but it could also result in SQQQ plummeting quickly, and therefore QQQ and the Nasdaq rebounding quickly. For comparison, many data points are covered in this chart, and there is a high statistical probability that the Nasdaq has bottomed. Not even during the peak fear of COVID-19, when the global economy shut down and governments feared millions of deaths, did SQQQ pierce the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. In December 2018 when the Fed was starting to rapidly roll off assets on its balance sheet and was raising interest rates, SQQQ still did not pierce the cloud. This fear is very similar to today's fear. Even further back, not even during the major flash crash in 2015 or on Black Monday in 2011 when the market crashed did SQQQ pierce the cloud. Today, hardly anyone remembers these episodes in stock market history. Similarly, in ten years or so, few people (except maybe those who sold all their positions at the market bottom) will remember what happened in May 2022. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to nearly 10 in May 2022, meaning almost 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq. There are many other examples in which the charts suggest, with high probability data, that we just experienced a significant bottom on the Nasdaq 100. (Eg. The Nasdaq 100 was supported on the monthly base line, the monthly candle is extremely bullish, the monthly EMA ribbon of the QQQ/SPY ratio chart strongly held the outperformance trend in place, inflation and interest rate charts are cooling. Although this may be a significant bottom, it does not mean a years-long bull span is ahead. Rather the charts suggest the panic selling has ended for at least the short to intermediate-term. To be fair, some charts suggest that the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend could be nearing the end of its decades-long run. (Credit to @Breakout_Charts for identifying this) If this occurs, then it could be the start of a new cycle, or even super cycle, whereby the Nasdaq underperforms for years. Finally, a point about market psychology. Bottoms occur when 'extreme fear' turns into just 'fear' (yes, there's actually an indicator that measures this). That indicator has moved significantly from 'extreme fear' towards 'fear'. With this said, there might be a lot of people who might comment on this post and say scary-sounding things about the state of the economy or stock market. If none of these fears existed among market participants, we would never even have gotten to this bottom. Never sell because of fear alone. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen. Just my thoughts. Leave a like if this was helpful and you'd like me to post more analyses. Please feel free to comment below if you have additional thoughts.
NASDAQ:SQQQEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
5
Look Out for Bull Trap!Looking at weekly QQQ: In the last recession, after confirming it via Sep 2 EMA crossing, we saw within 2 months of that crossing a very nice bull rally week. But it's a trap! We can see it was a trap by waiting for the week to play out & notice that BBPower was very weak, as shown via yellow circles. The bulls now are fatigued from the bears & want to get over this recession already, but make sure you confirm bull momentum is there before going back in, whether you are getting out of shorting via SQQQ or going long with TQQQ. We recently confirmed this recession from the Jun 6 EMA crossing, so be patient.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by roelds
4
Nasdaq100 The Nasdaq100 NASDAQ:NDX couldn’t hold above the support levels mentioned in our last report at 11376 points and opened the week with a gap below the significant 50%Fib. Level to open at 11472 points signaling that the bears are controlling the market backed by the bad news of the economy, then bears confirmed their control after the FED rate hike of 0.75 % last Wednesday to raise the interest rate to 1.75% and that will be reflected and affecting the earning results of the companies next month, breaking the 200EMA this week and closing below this level at 11265 points is the first confirmation of beginning a bear market on the medium term and may be the beginning of a downtrend on longer term. The NASDAQ:NDX may witness a rebound to test the level of 11376 again and failing to penetrate this level or forming a lower high before even testing this level will be the second bearish signal for the index and that will lead the NASDAQ:NDX to more losses and we may witness panic selloff sessions, especially if the NASDAQ:NDX break the 10600 points level which is the most important and significant level on the medium term. Investors with long positions are advised to use a disciplined risk management tools and activate the stop loss with all trades firmly Investors with short positions are advised to use just 30% of their cash and use the trailing stop and the protective stop strategy NASDAQ:NDX TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ AMEX:PSQ NASDAQ:SQQQ AMEX:SPY SP:SPX AMEX:SPXS TVC:DJI AMEX:SPY AMEX:DIA AMEX:DXD AMEX:DOG NASDAQ:IXIC
NASDAQ:NDX
by IsmailAbdulMeguid
First Time This Has Ever Happened for Tech StocksSQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders therefore use SQQQ to short tech stocks. This is the first time, in its 12-year history, that SQQQ shows a fully red heatmap of the daily timeframe. A fully red heatmap represents extremely overbought conditions. This is worse than the bottom in March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. This heatmap reflects that too many traders are too fearful of tech and growth stocks right now as they have all switched to shorting them. Although it's hard to predict bottoms, this indicator coupled with the extremely low NDTH value (the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average) could indicate that peak fear is occurring right now and that a potential rally will occur soon. The last time the NDTH was this low was on the exact day of the March 2020 bottom. Therefore, even in a recession, these values suggest bottoms.
NASDAQ:SQQQ
by SpyMasterTrades
12
hourly picture still bullish, but not ruling out daily reversalthe hourly picture for the nasdaq is looking like weve managed to hold some support over a daily neckline. if that necklline is threatened, id imagine we are revisiting that lower level soon. if we break it- look out below as a close beneath $31 will probably dictate 29.24 or lower. if we manage to hang on to this daily uptrend and close above the 33 mark i would imagine were challenging 35. 32.97 remains where that flatlining TRAMA lies at the moment. choppy action trading in this range has been hard to swallow for a lot of swing traders who were hoping for a breakout, or trying to catch consolidation to the downisde. it has also been bearish for volatility however, and this could revive the bounce if we see a breakdown in vix soon.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by cerealpatterns
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets… $SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets… I am definitely still bullish, y’all… The last three days I’ve played daily calls and won and that is not indicator of anything because you can play both sides most of the time… but I am bullish… We’re at the bottom of the channel… Yes, lots of funds blew up last week, but then there’s a lot of people that have been mostly in cash since jan (ME) that are itching to play again (outside of just the daily day trade scalping)… There’s a lot of deals out there right now and I think that we will see a little bit of green in the next week or so. I’m sure the bottom’s not in but money is shifting around and some names you won’t be able to see this low again…. What stocks are you guys thinking about possibly nibbling on?? I bought NIO and RIVN, TQQQ, and AMD this week… definitely looking for others that have taken a beating lately…. Good luck y’all and as always let me know what you think, and sorry if I’m slow to respond sometimes…
AMEX:SPYLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
17
TQQQ Wheel of Fortune Modeling Although you can effectively model the P&L of 30 days 'til expiry at-the-money short puts, it's difficult to model "the other stuff" a trader would typically do with a short put that is in the money toward expiry (i.e., take assignment, roll out "as is," roll out for strike improvement, etc.). (At least, I don't have access to that kind of model or can't easily program one without breaking my brain). You can, however, run a small number of occurrences (relatively speaking) to see how the setup would work in practice, so that you can have expectations as to how much the at-the-money 30 day short put pays over time, as well as the frequency of assignment and/or ending up with an in-the-money that has to be managed. You'd naturally have to run this for months to get any decent idea of how the setup would perform over a larger time frame. (Most studies actually look at selling a given strike in expiries of a given duration on a daily basis, which would be a lot of spreadsheet). The basic rules: 1. Sell the at-the-money short put nearest 30 days until expiry. 2. Either close out the short put on approaching worthless (e.g., <.20) or run to expiry if in-the-money. 3. If assigned on any given short put, initially sell the 30 days until expiry call at the strike at which you sold the short put, looking to exit the resulting covered call at a profit.* 4. Since not everyone has "infinite cash," I'll assume a maximal deployment of 5 lots. As you can see by the chart, you can contemplate getting stuck in a particular rung or rungs for a lengthy period of time, reducing cost basis via rolls of the short call until you're able to exit that "leg" profitably or at break even. The ROC becomes almost immediately "less sexy" when that occurs, since that will potentially be "dead buying power" for weeks (and potentially months) at a time. 5. It's probably to one's advantage to have additional rules as to when and when not to pull the trigger on a given rung (i.e., implied volatility rank and 30-day implied), but for the sake of simplicity, I'm not setting out that type of rule here. Pictured here would be the first leg, at the 47 strike in the May 13th expiry, paying 4.25 at the mid, with a resulting cost basis of 47.00 - 4.25 or 42.75 if assigned shares on the 47 short put.** For purposes of the return on capital calculation, I'm operating on the assumption that the short put will be cash secured,*** which means you'll tie up 42.75 of buying power to put this on, with the resulting ROC of 9.94% at max (implying a finish above the short put strike at expiry or the ability to pull off the short put on approaching worthless prior to that). * -- In practice, this isn't what I do when confronted with an in-the-money short put at expiry. I look at (a) taking assignment; (b) rolling out the short put as is to varying durations; and (c) rolling out the short put with strike improvement to varying durations. I then compare and contrast what I would get for each in credit and generally opt for the choice that would result in the largest cost basis reduction. For example, I'm not going to take assignment to sell a call against for less credit than I could get by just rolling the short put out for duration. ** -- It doesn't look like you get much buying power relief on margin anyhow, at least with my broker. The buying power reduction for the 47 short put on margin appears to be 35.26 -- 75% of the short put strike. It's something, but not the typical relief you get on margin, which is about 20% of the short put strike. That being said, 4.25 on buying power effect of 35.26 is 12.05% at max -- a smidge sexier than cash secured. *** -- I can also see a potential additional rule or rules that takes profit between 42.75 (your break even) and 47.00 toward expiry as extrinsic in the 47.00 converges on 0 or potentially rolls out the 47 to a 30 day at-the-money strike when it's in profit. On a practical level, I tend to do this quite a bit, but it's involves rolling from an out-of-the-money strike to an out-of-the-money strike, which continues to leave leave me with room to be wrong.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Resurrecting an old chart for BTC. Where it goes, NASDAQ followsI was convinced there was a crash coming last year and was charting a lot of interesting things. I was totally wrong. Or, more kindly, we could say my timing was off (as per usual). But, revisiting my old chart, it looks like the same pattern has repeated and, once again, we're on the edge of a cliff. Last time it was all good and I was totally wrong. But I can't shake what I'm seeing now. There was a clear head and shoulders in 2021 that came very close to confirming but then blasted up and never confirmed. There is a head and shoulders now on BTC 6M chart that hasn't been confirmed but is very close. The neckline is roughly where the last one was. I don't believe in coincidences. Volume is in keeping with that pattern. If it continues a general downward trend to $32K and beyond, it confirms and tumbles into the range I put on the chart. If you want to go full bear on this thing, roll out to the five-year chart and look at the double top (and its support/resistance level). Same deal. Unconfirmed pattern but very close. Has to continue to drop to around $32K and beyond before it's confirmed. If you want to go ultra bear, you could also look at the inverted cup and handle on the one-year chart. It's ticking all the boxes for that pattern but won't confirm unless it continues a trend down to $33K and beyond. Sorry for making any crypto folks anxious. Not trying to spread despair. Just showing what I see. Again. It's not confirmed. But where Bitcoin goes, the NASDAQ usually follows. I'd like to say I hope I'm wrong but I went to cash and puts in '21. I couldn't shake what I was seeing in macroeconomic trends. I think we just staved off what was coming in 2021 until now. I am sorry about all the carnage in the market for everyone. It sucks.
CME:BTC1!
by stockpreacherman
3
$TQQQ Update$TQQQ Update So All 4 targets from my last post have hit and I have added at all of them. (I’ll repost the last one below) My average is now 36.94 and I’m looking for 49.27 for 33.38% profit. IF the CPI comes in hot tomorrow and the market continues to sell off, then my next target to double my position will be at 20.12. Be careful out there, guys… the market is insane right now…. One of the best ways to stay hedged is to be mindful of your position sizes and trade small…. Always make sure you have funds to adjust in case we still have further to fall…. --------- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
7