TQQQ to 35Two Ways I want to play this move if it happens
1) I expect until Wednesday 7/27 that we are going to remain balanced between roughly 27 to 32
IF we get that clean break to the upside hard and fast (giggity) then I want to be looking to play that 35 to 36 rejection short. I am likely to swing this move, maybe day trade! but I will have to see what its looking like if it sets up. Leaning more towards a swing trade over next day or two
2) I want below 28.57 to pick up my first long entry. If we dip to 26 I will add once more to swing the contracts into that 35 short entry I am targeting
This is only IF we set up with price holding that 26 to 27 area of support. If that is broken and held below this plan is invalid as the overall market is going lower and shorts to the downside would be in play at that point
TQQQ
false break or trend changethe reversal pattern is in if we close above the key levels marked out. we have tested this sentiment a few times in the past month, but each time its proven resistive. if that pattern turns green and we close in a bullish pattern breaking out of this wedge to the upside daily id imagine were in for the upper horizontals, and if we stay with sss and qqe in the red treating this area as resistive id imagine it gets shorted back down to the lower horizontals. bulls really want to hold that orange line (high volume area), and bears want to move below it.
Time to Buy Stocks? TQQQ Analysis -73% There is something to be said about speculation.
Here we have the QQQ 3X fund, testing a key area. Not only are we testing a key area, but "large-risk" (largER anyway) is currently sitting -68% from the all time high.... Even more weird, when the whole world economy was shut down in 2020, TQQQ contracted -73.28%; oddly enough, at least in this view... we bounced at... -73.28%. (these measurements could be off by a few percentage points I just measured it once and they happened to be the same measurement.
Anyway, this looks like a good risk reward entry. I have bought and will continue to provide updates. For now, I have bought with the expectation that price will test the all time high from here.
God bless.
big orders bumping around triple qsusing order flow analysis and a volume profile you can see that a lot of action around the upper 24s has led to a bounce in the nasdaq and TQQQ 3x is a great way of capturing that. if we hold $24.58 and break $24.81 we should see that $25.86 level again no problem. envelope is flattening out, so id imagine this bounce has legs as long as were not seeing outflow on this etf.
Here's Why the Tech-Led Selloff is Likely Over (for now)In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis.
The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week and the previous week, the weekly candle was very strongly resisted at this level.
Now, the weekly and monthly momentum oscillators started to move in the opposite direction. This will not only make it much harder for SQQQ to pierce the line, but it could also result in SQQQ plummeting quickly, and therefore QQQ and the Nasdaq rebounding quickly.
For comparison, many data points are covered in this chart, and there is a high statistical probability that the Nasdaq has bottomed. Not even during the peak fear of COVID-19, when the global economy shut down and governments feared millions of deaths, did SQQQ pierce the weekly Ichimoku Cloud.
In December 2018 when the Fed was starting to rapidly roll off assets on its balance sheet and was raising interest rates, SQQQ still did not pierce the cloud. This fear is very similar to today's fear.
Even further back, not even during the major flash crash in 2015 or on Black Monday in 2011 when the market crashed did SQQQ pierce the cloud. Today, hardly anyone remembers these episodes in stock market history. Similarly, in ten years or so, few people (except maybe those who sold all their positions at the market bottom) will remember what happened in May 2022.
The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to nearly 10 in May 2022, meaning almost 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq.
There are many other examples in which the charts suggest, with high probability data, that we just experienced a significant bottom on the Nasdaq 100. (Eg. The Nasdaq 100 was supported on the monthly base line, the monthly candle is extremely bullish, the monthly EMA ribbon of the QQQ/SPY ratio chart strongly held the outperformance trend in place, inflation and interest rate charts are cooling.
Although this may be a significant bottom, it does not mean a years-long bull span is ahead. Rather the charts suggest the panic selling has ended for at least the short to intermediate-term. To be fair, some charts suggest that the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend could be nearing the end of its decades-long run. (Credit to @Breakout_Charts for identifying this) If this occurs, then it could be the start of a new cycle, or even super cycle, whereby the Nasdaq underperforms for years.
Finally, a point about market psychology. Bottoms occur when 'extreme fear' turns into just 'fear' (yes, there's actually an indicator that measures this). That indicator has moved significantly from 'extreme fear' towards 'fear'. With this said, there might be a lot of people who might comment on this post and say scary-sounding things about the state of the economy or stock market. If none of these fears existed among market participants, we would never even have gotten to this bottom. Never sell because of fear alone.
Not financial advice. As always anything can happen. Just my thoughts. Leave a like if this was helpful and you'd like me to post more analyses. Please feel free to comment below if you have additional thoughts.
Look Out for Bull Trap!Looking at weekly QQQ: In the last recession, after confirming it via Sep 2 EMA crossing, we saw within 2 months of that crossing a very nice bull rally week. But it's a trap! We can see it was a trap by waiting for the week to play out & notice that BBPower was very weak, as shown via yellow circles.
The bulls now are fatigued from the bears & want to get over this recession already, but make sure you confirm bull momentum is there before going back in, whether you are getting out of shorting via SQQQ or going long with TQQQ. We recently confirmed this recession from the Jun 6 EMA crossing, so be patient.
Nasdaq100
The Nasdaq100 NASDAQ:NDX couldn’t hold above the support levels mentioned in our last report at 11376 points and opened the week with a gap below the significant 50%Fib. Level to open at 11472 points signaling that the bears are controlling the market backed by the bad news of the economy, then bears confirmed their control after the FED rate hike of 0.75 % last Wednesday to raise the interest rate to 1.75% and that will be reflected and affecting the earning results of the companies next month, breaking the 200EMA this week and closing below this level at 11265 points is the first confirmation of beginning a bear market on the medium term and may be the beginning of a downtrend on longer term.
The NASDAQ:NDX may witness a rebound to test the level of 11376 again and failing to penetrate this level or forming a lower high before even testing this level will be the second bearish signal for the index and that will lead the NASDAQ:NDX to more losses and we may witness panic selloff sessions, especially if the NASDAQ:NDX break the 10600 points level which is the most important and significant level on the medium term.
Investors with long positions are advised to use a disciplined risk management tools and activate the stop loss with all trades firmly
Investors with short positions are advised to use just 30% of their cash and use the trailing stop and the protective stop strategy
NASDAQ:NDX TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ AMEX:PSQ NASDAQ:SQQQ AMEX:SPY SP:SPX AMEX:SPXS TVC:DJI AMEX:SPY AMEX:DIA AMEX:DXD AMEX:DOG NASDAQ:IXIC
pullback from the lows startingtheres no guaruntee this is a longer or even intermediate term bottom, but a bounce is clearly underway today, and it looks like were pulling back from the downtrend on shorter timeframes. id imagine that if we manage to hold the hourly reversal staying above that TRAMA line now hovering around 22.63 breaking VWMA currently flattening out around 23.48 we should have the greenlight to close the gap at 24.77 and then threaten the 26 area
First Time This Has Ever Happened for Tech StocksSQQQ is the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) inversely. When tech stocks fall, SQQQ rises. Traders therefore use SQQQ to short tech stocks.
This is the first time, in its 12-year history, that SQQQ shows a fully red heatmap of the daily timeframe. A fully red heatmap represents extremely overbought conditions.
This is worse than the bottom in March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. This heatmap reflects that too many traders are too fearful of tech and growth stocks right now as they have all switched to shorting them.
Although it's hard to predict bottoms, this indicator coupled with the extremely low NDTH value (the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average) could indicate that peak fear is occurring right now and that a potential rally will occur soon. The last time the NDTH was this low was on the exact day of the March 2020 bottom. Therefore, even in a recession, these values suggest bottoms.
hourly picture still bullish, but not ruling out daily reversalthe hourly picture for the nasdaq is looking like weve managed to hold some support over a daily neckline. if that necklline is threatened, id imagine we are revisiting that lower level soon. if we break it- look out below as a close beneath $31 will probably dictate 29.24 or lower. if we manage to hang on to this daily uptrend and close above the 33 mark i would imagine were challenging 35. 32.97 remains where that flatlining TRAMA lies at the moment. choppy action trading in this range has been hard to swallow for a lot of swing traders who were hoping for a breakout, or trying to catch consolidation to the downisde. it has also been bearish for volatility however, and this could revive the bounce if we see a breakdown in vix soon.
ARKKK bear market leading the way down?Here we have ARKKs bear market pattern overlaid with US100. Just pointing out a possible pattern. Fully expect markets to rally with the end of May and into June which would be similar to how ARKKs bear market has played out so far.
Maybe things get spicy like they have for ARKK? Time will tell as the "crash" would be next year, so plenty of time to see how this plays out and observe.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets… $SPY Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets…
I am definitely still bullish, y’all… The last three days I’ve played daily calls and won and that is not indicator of anything because you can play both sides most of the time… but I am bullish…
We’re at the bottom of the channel… Yes, lots of funds blew up last week, but then there’s a lot of people that have been mostly in cash since jan (ME) that are itching to play again (outside of just the daily day trade scalping)…
There’s a lot of deals out there right now and I think that we will see a little bit of green in the next week or so. I’m sure the bottom’s not in but money is shifting around and some names you won’t be able to see this low again….
What stocks are you guys thinking about possibly nibbling on??
I bought NIO and RIVN, TQQQ, and AMD this week… definitely looking for others that have taken a beating lately….
Good luck y’all and as always let me know what you think, and sorry if I’m slow to respond sometimes…