Can the Bulls Hold this Up Move...?We are currently seeing some bullishness on this pair with regards to the 1-hour timeframe.
We have marked out our zone, as we would expect the market to retrace before moving further to create higher highs.
We have the market on the 1 hour timeframe currently making a Bullish PB, and we have done a bit of trade setup, looking and waiting to catch the longs trade when it comes with a retracement into our zone.
But there is one thing, and it seems to beg the question. Though our analysis are in order, there is a concern about looking to take the bullish run. The question is this: "Can the Bulls Hold this up move?"
As much as I would like to hold on to the already established 1-hour bullish analysis, I am afraid I might have to think otherwise. Here is our reasoning: The market has made a bullish push, an upmove, and an impulse on the 1 hour, but this entire bullish swing on the 1 hour timeframe forms what we can call a retracement on the 4 hour timeframe. With the market already touching the 4-hour zone marked out, we can see two reasons why the market will turn bearish: the first reason is the 1-hour retracement, and the second reason is the 4-hour extension building up. Because we know that the lower timeframes move in the direction of the higher timeframes, we are expecting the 1 hour to give way to the 4 hour.
And so we would hope to see prices melt as a retracement on the 1 hour towards the 1 hour zone. But in truth, that zone has only a 20% chance of holding. I its expected to be tested to put up some support , perhaps about 2 to 3 tries max before it gives way for the bears to take control of the market.
If that zone holds, we might see the bulls push the market higher for a bit. This up move will either be cut short by the current 4-hour zone to go bearish, or it might clear the 4-hour zone to make a higher zone before it reverses.
On the whole, we look at the market in the lower timeframes without forgetting the direction of the trend in the daily timeframe, which is still bearish.
Trade!
A little Bit of Bullishness in a Bearish MarketWe have seen this pair progress Bearish over the past few days. On the 4 hour and the 1 hour charts, which would be our primary focus for this analysis, the market has been Bearish.
But today we have seen a trend shift on the 1 hour. the 1 hour chart has turned Bullish today.
Taking a close look at the 4 hour (using the multi time frame analysis taught by Panzy Pips fx), we see that the 4 hour has completed 1 down PB and is not retracing Bullish. That is the bulishness we are witnessing on the 1 hour. We are expecting this bullishness to hold monentarily to help give us the needed retracement on the 4 hour bearish swing.
In another analysis, we will look at the 4 hour from the retracement perspective, marking out our PB and refining it to our reversal zone.
And in yet another analysis, we will look at the market from the current bullish perspective as played out on the 1 hour. The essence of the 1 hour bullish analysis is to see how far we would expect the retracement to go, comparing it with our refined reversal zone of the 4 hour.
With these pieces of information, we should be able to have a clear direction of market movement, with an added advantage of narrowing it down to actual reversal zones.
It's Never too Late to Catch the RollerCoasterFrom our analysis of this pair from yesterday, we had a prediction of this pair melting all the way down to hit the Daily Liquidation Target.
For those of you who were able to catch the trade from when i sent out the setup, thumbs up to you as you sure have made a good 1:25 RRR on the trade so far, if you trade with tight spreads like i do.
But for those who didn't, what can i say? Should i say sorry you missed the train. Better luck next time? That is definitely one way around it. But more there is sure is another way around it this time. More often than not, the market afords us an opportunity to enter on or join an already moving trend. This is done when the market gives pullbacks/retracements.
All you have to do is time your entry. It just like surfing the waves on the ocean; you miss one, you get ready for the next.
NZD/USD ShortNZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/CAD Long and USD/CHF ShortEUR/CAD Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/CHF Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our second area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Bullish on the 1 Hour, Should we TRADE ...?
After successive trades to liquidity target, the market seems to have lost its Bearish momentum for a bit. This has seen the market take out our zone in a bid to turning Bullish.
For now, we are on a middle course. With the 1 hour reversing Bullish while the 4 hour maintains its Bearish momentum, it is difficult to say whichi direction the market would go for certain.
A second look, not at the charts, but to reservoir of knowledge would reveal that the 1 hour is expected to move in the direction of the 4 hour. And so the 1 hour Bulish impulse is expected to form a retracement for the 4 hour chart, following which the 1 hour impulse will be wiped out by the 4 hour extension.
This is my perspective on this pair
Bearish Way to GO...From our yesterday's analysis, we saw a possiblity of this pair going Bearish on the 1 hour chart, while still looking overwhelmingly Bullish on the 4 hour.
Today, looking at the 4 hour chart, we can see that there is a change in direction. The pair now has a Bearish perspective on the 4 hour chart. Price has retraced bullish into our Panzy Pips Block (PB), from where we expect Bearish reversal. We are open to the possibility of price reaching further up for our zone as marked out on the chart. With price expected to dip lower, we have our eyes and early trade setup focused at the 4 hour
Bearish Again on the 1 Hour...?Yesterday, we made our analysis and found a possibility of the market dipping.
The market played out our prediction and hit the 1 and 4-hour liquidity target at 0.89016.
With that swing completed, we are setting up for the next trading opportunity.
We see prices begin to retrace Bullish after hitting our liquidity target.
We have prices back inside our Panzy Pips Block (PB) and we are setting up for a trade. Price is expected to get to our marked-out zone, and from there, it will reverse Bearish. We will look to jump on that Bearishness when the reversal begins.
Even though we are Bearish on the 1 Hour, as well as the 4 hour, it is important to notice and pay attention to the fact that the daily chart is bullish and we have seen prices very recently come into our marked-out zone. This is a sign of Bullishness on the Daily. Be that as it may, since we are trading the 1 hour time frame, we will hold on to the Bearishness sold to us by the 1 hour timeframe and only look to think otherwise where and when the 1 hour reverses adn begins to move Bullish, in the direction of and in syncrony with the Daily Chart.
Bullish on the 1 HourWe made our trade analysis on this pair yesterday and we saw it play out our prediction.
This pair played out right according to our prediction.
We witnessed prices drop all the way to hit our 1 hour liquidity target. Market came very close to our 4 hour target but reversed Bullish.
On the 1 hour chart, the market has reversed Bullish. We have a new Panzy Pips Bolck (PB) to trade from and we have refined it to a small zone. Price is expected to drop into that zone. That is our first step to trading this pair. From that zone, we expect to see Bullish Reversals, to drive prices all the way up to our 1 hour liquidity target at 0.63790.
USD/CHF Short, GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortUSD/CHF Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
ETH - Potential to break up and test 2500Sometimes things move fast. Bitcoin has surged significantly in the past few days, and the cryptocurrency market has followed to some extent. However, the most dominant upward movement is still with Bitcoin when we look at major cryptocurrencies.
A few days ago, I mentioned that I thought Ethereum might go down to a support area. This scenario can still happen if we don't break through the 1800 level in the near future.
But I believe we will break through 1800 and start moving higher, considering the momentum that has entered the market in recent days.
I've been optimistic since the bottom, but in recent weeks, I was also influenced by the negative sentiment circulating in the media. Fortunately, I didn't take any positions based on that. Instead, I saw it as an opportunity because I have a very positive outlook on the market's future.
If ETH breaks through the 2000 level, I see a strong movement toward the 2500 level. This can happen relatively quickly, but Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies always follow Bitcoin with some delay. So it may take a while before this materializes. Timeframes are always challenging to predict, but I can imagine ETH reaching the 2500 level toward the end of the year.
Strong Bearish MomentumOn the 4-hour chart, we witnessed yesterday how prices retraced Bullish to come into our zone. This saw the 1 hour chart hitting its target price point and proceeding all the way higher to get to our 4 hour Panzy-Pips Block (PB), as marked out on the chart.
From this level, and with this look of bearishness, we expect prices to begin to melt and consequently witness a corresponding dip in prices. The market is expected to stay bearish as we target our 4-hour liquidity target at 1.20371.
Because it is a 4-hour chart, we would expect a good number of swings in the lower timeframes of 1 hour and below.
Strong Bearish MomentumOn the 4 hour, we witnessed yesterday how prices retraced Bullish to come into our zone. This saw the 1 hour chart hitting its target price point and proceeding all the way higher to get to our 4 hour Panzy-Pips Block (PB) as marked out on the chart.
From this level, and with this look of bearishness, we expect prices to begin to melt and consequently witness a corresponding dip in prices. The market is expected to stay bearish as we target our 4 hour liquidity target at 1.20899.
Because it is the 4 hour chart, we would be expecting a good amount of swings on the lower timeframes of 1 hour and below.
GBP/CHF Long, NZD/USD Short, GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/CHF Long
• If price corrects and a tight forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Patent Expirations And Competition May Limit ARM’s Market ShareKey points
1. ARM is a leader with a saturated number of customers limiting future growth.
It’s in a highly competitive landscape and needs to innovate beyond patent expirations in the 2030s.
2. As a controlled entity of SoftBank, I expect the board to push for buybacks in a bid to maximize returns.
3. I expect SoftBank to slowly unload its stake, while ARM buys back their stock - this may initially sustain the price.
Prospects Are Still Solid After IPO
ARM designs and licenses processors to manufacturers, it is the engineering company behind the world’s CPUs.
About 70% of the world’s population uses Arm-based products. More than 30 billion ARM-based chips (smartphones, small electronics, data centers, networking equipment) were shipped in FY '23, representing an approximately 70% increase since 2016.
Most of ARM’s IP sales are in the United States, however a good combined portion are in East Asia, including China (PRC), Taiwan and South Korea.
The business model of the company is to design ARM-chips and license them out to manufacturers. It sells the intellectual property behind chips, but doesn’t produce the hardware. This is an engineering-first company, with approximately 80% of global employees focused on research, design, and innovation. The company reaches scale with the ability to license out each CPU product to multiple companies.
ARM is a high performing company, with a gross margin of 80% and operating margins of 25%. The company made $2.7 billion in revenues in 2022 that stagnated in the IPO year.
Despite stagnating in its IPO year, it’s future prospects from here are still solid as demand for their IP continue to grow. But I don’t believe it’ll grow revenues as fast as analysts are expecting (14% per year).
ARM’s Market Share May Suffer As Patents Expire
Arm has an addressable market of $202.5 billion, and expects it to grow at a 6.8% annual rate to $246.6 billion by the end of 2025. The company estimates the aggregate value of chips containing Arm technology to be approx. $98.9 billion in 2022, representing 48.9% market share.
This market share is large even for a market leader. Competitors and expiring patents can become significant forces driving down the market share for ARM in the future. Notably most of the key ARM patents are expected to expire in the 2030s:
The expiration of these patents can open the door for more companies to design and manufacture ARM-based chips.
Limited New Customer Growth, But Opportunities in Smart Devices
More than 260 companies reported that they had shipped Arm-based chips in 2023, including:
Mobile computing: Apple, Guangdong OPPO, Samsung, Vivo Mobile, Xiaomi.
Cloud computing: AWS and Alibaba
Industrial IoT: Cruise and Mercedes-Benz, Raspberry Pi, Schneider Electric, and Siemens.
ARM also entered into a long-term agreement with Apple that extends beyond 2040 allowing the company to use Arm architecture for their CPUs.
The customer base for ARM is well established, and the company is at a phase where it will have a harder time acquiring new customers, rather it will have to rely on industry growth and innovation in order to increase revenue.
One of the highest-potential growth avenues for ARM is the smart devices vertical. ARM’s CPU architecture fits well in small devices, giving it an advantage over peers with larger CPUs. As compute power increases, it will become more practical for consumers to rely on mobile devices and wearables instead of larger devices for everyday needs, this has the potential to widen the TAM.
Another growth avenue for the company is the market adoption of electronically rich vehicles and EVs as well as the capitalizing on government programs subsidizing EVs. Vehicles have an increasing number of processing demands both in central systems, and IoT linked sensors.
Selling Pressure From SoftBank May Limit Price Appreciation
ARM is a controlled entity owned by SoftBank Group with approximately 90.6% of their outstanding ordinary shares following the completion ARMs IPO.
Arm’s Top Shareholders
ARM’s IPO is pushed by SoftBank who is looking to cash-in on their investment or escape with minimal losses. One scenario is to expect a continuous selling from SoftBank, which means that there may be selling pressure for some time keeping price appreciation moderate until the stock flips to a diversified investor base.
AUDNZD I Potential short near resistance zoneHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity AUDNZD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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GBP/CHF Long, CHF/JPY Short and GBP/USD ShortGBP/CHF Short
• If price impulses up above our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CHF/JPY Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GOLD 4H price achieves the extended targetHello everyone, The price of gold rose strongly yesterday to succeed in achieving our expected target of 1985. We notice that the price begins today with more positivity to try to penetrate this level, which leads the price to achieve more expected gains during the coming sessions, paving the way for heading towards the levels of 1991 and then 2009 as stations—next main.
Moving average 50 continues to support the proposed bullish wave, taking into account that failure to consolidate above 1977.25 will stop the expected rise and put pressure on the price to turn lower.
Pivot Price: 1977
Resistance Price: 1991 & 2009 & 2024
Support price: 1957 & 1943 & 1929
timeframe: 4H
NZDUSD FX:NZDUSD
Suggestion: sell point below 0.5851 with the first profit tick of 0.5803 and the second profit tick of 0.5791
Alternative offer (if the price trend changes) when the price penetrates above 0.5851, the price will first start its movement towards 0.5871 and 0.5884.
Support point and 30-minute time frame price chart
(Today's pivot, support and resistance levels of the forex market)
0.5884
0.5871
0.5851
———
0.5803
0.5791
0.5779
CHF/JPY ShortCHF/JPY Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/NZD ShortGBP/NZD Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.