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Bitcoin: XBTUSD Next Trade Points from HereBitcoin XBTUSD Next Trade Points The break above the upper parallel at 3740 was a good one when it finally arrived, propelling Bitcoin to the first target range at 4018-4152 within a few minutes of the break. Volume was pretty good too. Since then it's made a little flag before pushing higher still, triggering the next long shot from 4152 looking for further upside to the 4723-4765 range (narrowed). It's pushing higher inside a pair of parallels once more. The higher the volatility the more patterns it tends to make. Now approaching near term resistance potential at 4379 and the upper parallel and likely to start consolidating again soon around here. Should find support off the lower parallel when it comes off though. Once it's consolidated a little more around here it should break above 4379 which should in turn attract more buyers still and take it to the next target range at 4723-4765. The next long trade or add is from 44770 up to 5158. Whilst Bitcoin stays inside the parallels this uptrend remains in tact and it can't really be shorted again until it breaks the lower parallel.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by sumastardon
SPX: S&P 500 Index Trade Points Today S&P 500 Index SPX500USD Was looking for a selling climax around yesterday's open, leading to a counter rally which would last into Friday's US open before falling away again. Well we got the counter rally just after the open in US, leaving a spike off the low at 2708 and 9 points from the next support line at 2699. Not much good, really. Then the S&P had to regain 2763 to have a decent chance of ralling further overnight. It managed to do this and went on to reach a high at 2781 before falling away to retest the 2763 line yet again before bouncing. Nasdaq has had a good overnight too, rallying to resistance and Goog is called up around 1100 again on the open. So far so good. The next big question is how markets will react on the open, obviously. Will they top out here with Goog at 1100 and fall away again - or can they break the highs of yesteday and spark a bigger counter-rally as the day wears on and more near term confidence starts to return as price builds? Downside Trades Today Ideally it will be the former - if so the first clue should be a break back below 2763-2760 range. That should be worth shorting back to 2744-3 range It should try to bounce again here, trying to form a right shoulder to lean on. A break below 2740 would suggest that attempt has failed and it should then start to fall away to 2699 and 2674 support lines. Upside Trades 2763-2760 must hold up around the open if this counter rally is hold up a while longer, tempting more longs as well as some bear closing back up towards the 2784-2794 range where it should become vulnerable again. Hoping that Google will again help to clarify price action from here. It has to hold up above 1100 today for markets in general to remain positive, imo. A break above 2794 on SPX should ideally be accompanied by GOOG pushing higher above 1100 too. That should then trigger a decent relief rally back to 2834 on S&P at least and potentially as high as 2865 before collapsing again. Again we need to be prepared for this if it materialises and to follow long to 2834 (and suspend disbelief for a while :) Markets are still super volatile still and still trying to make up their minds whether to stabilse for a while or break lower still. This volatility is similar to Bitcoin of old. This is where the skill sets you learned trading the crypto markets should be useful. Once again there's likely to be plenty of whipsaw around the open. Once more it will be a close-run game of cat and mouse - with a break above 2794 needed for the counter rally to turn into a relief rally higher as above. The overall picture is still negative looking into next week. That will remain the case unless and until a double bottom materialises when the next decline sets in. Often a poor October leads to a counter rally around mid month leading to another sell off in November. A volatile couple of months are in store with a series of great trading opportunities still to come. Like Bitcoin of yore. Be lucky. Follow the chart and not blind hunches or dogma and you will be ;) * For major market updates in real time today please see links at top-left of main page
OANDA:SPX500USD
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Significant Trade Points from HereBitcoin Next Trade Points from Here Hard grind right now but hoping for a decent trade when we finally get a break of the bigger flat wedge formation - or larger triangle depending on the eye of each beholder. Largely neutral inside the triangle though. A break below 6529 on Bitfinex needed to flip short back to 6380-6337 range at least and more likely to 6122 again once 6337 is broken. And on the upside initial resistance is at 6666 - once it moves above here it should rally to 6738 for a small 70 point scalp. Depends on volume or lack of to make the next decision from there, whether to stay long or close out....if volume starts to rise can risk staying long back to 6839. The big break to the upside will trigger if this level can be retaken and held by the bulls later on today and into this week on rising volume. It should then be worth following long again for 500 points or so to 7342 -7420 range. But until we see the pattern broken we need to stay patient for now. It's been hard work the last few days. Hoping that patience will have its reward soon though and a decent trade will be triggered fairly soon as a result.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
XBTUSD Bitcoin: Next Trade-Points Bitcoin Next Trade-Points Bitcoin started to fall away as US markets opened yesterday - a risk-off day across most markets. It bottomed as markets closed. Perhaps Bitcoin is becoming so institutionalised that it will start to follow risk -on and off periods across major markets more closely as time wears on. Too early to say yet, but worth watching to see how it correlates over time... Anyway since the low around 21:00Bst 16:00Est Bitcopin has rallied in a little continuation pattern and looks worth buying on dips to around 6244 - but only for a scalp to 6300 - it looks like it's made 2 minor waves up inside the continuation pattern and should make 3 or 4 as the day the winds on. So would rather buy dips again rather looking for a sell right now. But it will need some buying volume to force Bitcoin out of the the continuation pattern it's now tracking within. Will be interesting to see how it reacts when main US markets open. If it can manage to break the upper parallel of the pattern it should be worth following but volume has to start rising fast at that point to justify staying with it to 6373 initially and then 6547-6595 range. Staying with upside potential from here, any break above 6600 at any point this week would be extremely bullish and trigger another long shot from here to 6790 to begin with and given more time back as high as the 7334-7400 range again. That will all change if the 6238-6225 range and the lower parallel of this little continuation pattern gives way (stops below here). Even then it looks only likely to fall to 6193-6170 - at least to begin with. It should try to rally from here - unless a streak of red develops on rising volumes as it could well do - the pattern it's making so far is just a bear flag with 280-316 points of potential downside to 5918-5879 once 6195 gives way The next minor support lies at 6114 and once this gives way it should then fall faster towards the lower end of the 5971-5880 range.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by sumastardon
4
SPX S&P 500 Index Trade-Points Today S&P 500 Update SPX500USD The long was triggered right on the highs yesterday and was stopped out for 2 points loss. A short was was then triggered from 2903 to the 2894.4 line but the low is 2895 and it's sticking. Not great all in all. Have closed out as it looks to be sticking for now. There's a little head and shoulders forming right now with a minimum downside target at 2871 should the neck-line at 2894 break later on today. It should try to rally away again on the open - or at least to cling to the neckline for as long as possible...but looks unlikely to be able to get far to the upside if so. The best it looks able to achieve is a counter rally to 2903. There is some minor support extending from 2894 down to 2891 which might hold up the decline to begin with but once 2891 gives out it should fall back to 2876 at least and more likely to the 2871-2869 range. On the upside this index is in danger now due to the presence of that H&S. To escape this clear and looming danger the S&P will have to find buyers enough to break above the right shoulder at 2904 to destroy the pattern now forming. Need to to see this price action to flip this index back to positive again from this point. In its favor, so far, the upper major dynamic has not been broken yet. It can't fall away hard until it does. It's right on it as this goes live. Wait for it to break and follow it if it comes with stops 3 points higher. *For real-time major market updates please see link at top-left of main page
OANDA:SPX500USD
by sumastardon
1
XBT Bitcoin Next tRade Points from HereBTCUSD Bitcoin - Next Trade Points from here Bitcoin broke lower overnight but stopped just a few points above the 6226 line on Bitfinex and then rallied back above the 6312 line, dancing either side of it for a couple of hours as it made a small bull pennant before surging back to retest the upper boundary of the triangle again. A Groundhog day. Price has now come back inside the same triangle that formed over yesterday and is moving precisely inside it now as it approaches apex. No trade inside the old triangle as yet. But it looks to be coming to a head/decision point soon enough again now... It has to break above 6500 now to follow long for a scalp to 6616. If volume stays low look to close down a little below here . The 6616 line is the neck-line of the still smouldering IHS. Any break above here on rising volumes can be followed long again with stops under 6600 looking for 6892 initially, then 7144 and 7400 in 3 potential long trades or stages. On the downside the low overnight has created a larger bull flag which only stays good so long as it holds 6409-6400 and the lower dynamic that forms the triangle. Failure to hold 6400 should be worth shorting back to 6312 for a scalp and potentially back to the lower parallel of the bigger flag at 6226-6170 range. It then has to break below here to add or reopen fresh shorts from 6160 back to 5997-5898 range.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
ETHUSD Next Trade Points from HereETHUSD ETH has been a fabulous short all the way dwon from 399 in a succession of trades over the summer. Left this one looking for a bounce from 252 and by chance happened to write on it last at exactly this point. At least shorts were closed out there but really should have reversed long there too. Easy to say that now of course.... It's afe agin whilst it's moving inside the parallels of the little continuation pattern it's now forming with first resistance right here at 305-6. A break above here should trigger further strength up to 320-329 range- then once it cam break above 330 it should start to find more buyers still and run back up to the upper parallel where it should then fall away again. On the downside a break back below 278 is needed to trigger another near term short back to 252 at least. *For fastest ALT updates please see link at top left of main page.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trade-Points from Here BTCUSD: Bitcoin Update 2nd August 09:54 Bst 05:54 Est Bitcoin made the double bottom at 7465 after a little spike lower to 7453 on low volume overnight before reversing higher again. It's still a little weird that it stopped where it did. It may be manipulation and maybe not. It's not easy to say for sure. But it was a little strange and means we need to stay alert to signals and not trade too much on hope values - that's easier said than done sometimes . But signals beat hope usually. During the course of the overnight session Bitcoin has managed to climb back above the 7661 line but there's no volume now. There's near term support at 7625 - has to hold up here on retests to stay in with a decent chance of pushing higher to 7788 again. Resistance extends from 7788 up to 7824 and it should then move sideways for a while inside the range from 7788-7824 at the highs and 7661-7625 at the lows, but 7625 has to hold up from here for this to play out for the bulls later on. Stops on any longs need to be just below here for now. Any subsequent break above 7825 on rising volume would be a very bullish signal and worth following for 240 points or so looking for a retest of the 8068 line. Right now it's back in neutral again in the nearterm but stands a high chance of breaking higher later just so long as 7625 continues to hold up from here. Has to break below 7610 on Bitmex to flip back to negative again back to the 7460-7450 range. For now it looks like scalps again. It's slow hard graft again for a while. The scalps are 150-200 points though. We only need 3 or 4 of these per week to make good returns even in difficult conditions. *For Bitcoin updates in real-time over the Summer please check the link at top-left of main page. Bitcoin Update 1st August 11.55 Bst 06:55 Est Bitcoin finally started to fall away again around midnight Bst / 19:00 Est, losing the 7661 support line to make an overnight low at 7465 before rallying back to the same 7661 line this morning in Europe. Price action is a little strange at the moment though. It's now coming off again from where it should do but there's minor support right here at 7540 which is holding it up. Want to move the stop down to 7575 just in case it flips back up for a while longer. At least this will capture another 80 or so points of profit if it gets hit. Otherwise short stops can be lowered to 7665 for rought break even if this trade goes wrong from here. It still hasn't come close to the next short downside target at the 7347-7209 range and volume is fairly light still. All we can do at this point is manage the stops as best we can and hope for some volume to force it lower to the target. In meantime we need to watch for a potential double bottom forming at 7465 on low volumes. Some may prefer to keep lowering the stop to within 15 points or so of price due to low volumes, depending on risk profile if margin trading. In the absence of volumes rising we may get stopped out. If so that's going to be frustrating but so be it. On the upside for Bitcoin to escape the downtrend it has to break back above the 7661 line and hold up on the retest . This price action is a little spooky. If it won't go down it has to eventually start thinking about going the other way. We aren't at that point yet but it's moving that way. This looks to be the 4th wave down and it's not pushing lower so far. It's finding support off the dynamic that's formed since the weekend - these signs are enough to warrant caution. Cannot stay gung-ho short from this point. Price action is saying we have to stay bearish but cautious for now.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
3
BTCUSD Bitcoin Trade Points and Stops from HereBitcoin Update 26th July 11:16Est 06:16Est Bitcoin was a buy on a break above the 8160 line yesterday (though by time comment went live it had already broken higher, sorry- busy day yesterday all round) It was also a buy if missed the first break on a return to the 8160 line overnight, with the low being 8163 since then. But the rally is a little lame so far up 100 or so points. Can raise the stop to 8240 for now. It's effectively back in neutral, yet again in the very near term whilst trading within the range forming overnight and today bounded by support at the 8160 line and resistance at 8298-8320. Has to break above 8320 to return to positive for rally back to 8478-8576 range. Any break above 8600 at any point on rising volume would be extremely positive and can follow long again from that point looking for 8863 initially and then once broken above to 9367. Until then the best we can do is raise the stop as above or close out as close to the 8300 line for 140 points or so profit (if you were around or had orders placed to buy the dip overnight) and be ready to go again on a break above 8320 on rising volume. Returning to the downside potential from here: has to break below the first support line at 8163-8155 range to trigger a 100 point scalp back to 8053. The next support lies at 7944. It must hold up here at lowest on any retests for the uptrend to remain in tact from here. 25th July 22:18 Bst 17:18 Est The bears are really struggling here. We've had 4 minor waves down with the last being a slightly higher low - there's no momentum building on the downside - there are no sellers . And if that;s the case it have to move up until there are some again. The support lines have been adjusted accordingly . This mofo is trying to break above 8170 as this is finished. It's not ready to go down yet. So it should push up instead. Which it's just damn well done. Resistance here at 8230 - must break above here on rising volume to follow long again - it looks ok though to buy the dip if it comes back to 8163 overnight if it sticks here at 8230 - otherwise will have to buy the break higher above 8230 and hope volume picks up behind quickly. If not look to close out again. July 24th Update Bitcoin Update 24th July 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of 05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though. It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far, lacking real intent. The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far. Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get taken before more buyers appear. * Active traders: For fastest up-dates in real time over the Summer hiatus please check link at top left of main page. You are very welcome to join.
by sumastardon
SPX: S&P 500 Next Trade Points from HereS&P 500 SPX500USD Of the 3 charts followed for S&P 500 index, this one has been the most reliable recently. We were looking for S&P strength as the last but one of the Fangs report earnings with Amazon on 26th after hours. Google has helped overnight. After triple bottoming at the 2790 support line the S&P has rallied higher, making a little spike off the next line at 2809 before pushing higher still. It should move on up to test 2836-2837 on this feed, then consolidate some, perhaps back to 2814 at lows before it rallies again. Has to beat 2837 to trigger further near term strength up to 2876 -2877 where it should top out and reverse if touched later in the week. No point in trying to fight this until earnings are almost done with. The turn may come on 26th. Let's see - time should tell us the next trade from there... 19th July Update Am counting on a 4th wave on the back of earnings in near term - It could use some great results from Microsoft tonight - merely 'good' numbers will be a bit of a let down - on the Dow also and Dax too. Looking at this index in isolation it still looks like it has more upside left and will eventually break higher above 2814 up to 2838 and then after consolidating some more here, it should push on to 2876 highs again. On the downside it has to break below 2798 to short back to 2788/7 where it must bounce again if the trend is to remain positive in the nearer term and for a retest of the highs to remain the likeliest outcome from here.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Update and Key Trade Points this weekBitcoin Update 24th July 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of 05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though. It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far, lacking real intent. The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far. Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get taken before more buyers appear. Last Bitcoin Update 23rd July 15:23 Bst 10:23 Est ...Bitcoin had to break above 7350-7380 to follow long to 7500 minimum and ideally to 7741 where it was a sell again with a stop 20 or so above. But the call was ruined by raising the stop too high to 7389 - Bitcoin came back to a low at the 7347 line again then rallied to just above 7500 before falling away to retest the 7347 line once more before rallying hard to a high at 7764. In this case a stop of 25 points was needed (above the given level at 7741 here on Bitmex) to avoid getting stopped out - sorry about that. It was meant to rally over the weekend and then to come off from 7741 at tops....pretty hard too. But it hasn't, so far at least. Instead it's finding support off the uppermost parallel of the little continuation pattern it had spent most of the weekend inside....it's now outside of the pattern and using it as support. This is telling us that there is still a chance of a break to the upside from here. It's at mission critical for the bulls in this argument at this point. It's giving off mixed short term signals here - it should have met with pretty heavy rejection at 7741 through to 7800 at the uppermost parallel but so far has only been mild. Bull hopes are being faded from 7725 but not aggressively so as yet. Price action is telling us to revert to open mind-set from here....it should come off but it isn't doing, dammit. If still short suggest lowering the stop to 7725 for starters and to 7445 at lowest for rough break even if hit. Trade Points from Here if Flat Don't want to get sucked in if it can be avoided from this point but we need to be prepared for a break higher... If it comes and volume rises to back it up we could get a very good break too. It has to break above the 7780-7800 range and the uppermost parallel on Bitmex on rising volume to follow long again to 7948 initially and then 8576 and potentially back as high as 9995 on this feed over the course of this week. However, as usual, if we see a break higher but volume doesn't quickly build on its back we need to be ready to close out and then be ready to go again, depending on price action at that critical point... But if do get a break higher on volume it should be worth following it for significantly higher levels still this week. Returning to the downside a break below 7683 should force Bitcoin lower still to 7614-7610 for a small scalp at best. It's likely to bounce again from here in the near term though. It has to break below 7610 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7347 again. * For fastest Bitcoin updates in real-time for more active traders please see link at top-left of main page
Long
by sumastardon
3
Dow Jones Industrials: DJIA1! Stop Management and Trade PointsDow Jones Futures DJIA1! 10:15bst/05:15est 20th July Despite the counter rally this index still looks weak technically. It should start to come off from around here and from the upper falling dynamic from the recent highs at 25035 at best. It should come back to the overnight low at 24902-24850 range later today. It must hold and bounce here to avoid unravelling further to 24772 initially and then after another mild bounce to the 24641 -24531 range where it should rally away to the upside once more. To extricate itself from near term bear clutches it has to find enough buying interest to break above the falling dynamic at 25035 and hold there on the retest. Dow Jones Futures Update 11:56bst/06:56est 20th July A nice break lower from a high reached at 25027. Drive stop lower now, to just 10 points above current price to lock in 100 points or so of profit so far. * Active traders: for global markets updates in real-time please check the link at top left of main page.
OSE:DJIA1!Short
by sumastardon
BTCUSD Key Levels SaturdaySaturday 14:11 gmt 11:11est Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update: Key Levels Saturday Back to Black - cannot see wicks as clearly on white background :( Yesterday's price action was tricky to say the least. Lost 5 points on the first short and then another 15 on a long above 6545 before at last capturing 140 or so points on the final short from 6535 to 6395 overnight. Hard hard work to net just 100 or so points after costs. Sometimes it's hard and sometimes it's surprisingly easy (like last weekend's 740 point win) - the important point is to limit losses when the call goes wrong whenever possible. Since then Bitcoin has made an overnight low at 6387 before counter-rallying within a continuation pattern that's been running for 11 hours now since the midnight gmt/19:00 est low. It's a sell once the lower parallel of the pattern is broken but the first support line is close by at 6428 and this may create another mild bounce. It's a slow and tricky market right now and although it should fall away more on lack of interest it's hard to be gung-ho right now about downside - but a break below the 6428 line which it is now close to testing should flip it back into bear hands again back to 6370 - but will need a volume spike from here to trigger a bigger decline back to 6317 and then 6236. Be careful with stops and if no volume comes in at 6370 move stop close behind it rather than hoping. These are thin and treacherous conditions as we saw yesterday. The best we can hope for is scalps most likely. Looking at upside from here, have no real interest in buying right now until we get a better signal. *For updates in real-time please check link at top-left of main page.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Potential Trade Points From HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Points From Here After a surprisingly active weekend of over 750 points profit (from 7579 before getting stopped out at 6825, stop was too close by about 45 points or so here, sorry) Bitcoin has moved back into neutral in the nearterm. On the Bitmex chart Bitcoin is now moving in a 200 point range bounded by near term resistance at 6860 and near term support at 6660. Its best hope now is for it to hold up until US opens and to find buyers enough from there to break above 6815 on Futures and 6860 here on Bitmex - the ensuing counter-rally should be worth following back to 7056 and 7200-7289 at best if we see it develop later. But at the moment Bitcoin is drifting on lack of interest either way, nearterm neutral but will remain vulnerable whilst unable to regain and hold the 6860 line here. It now has to break below 6600 to trigger a quick short opportunity to 6481-6428 (often the only way to trade it is to place orders and limits on Bitmex beforehand most likely. The spikes often show imprints in the trail where other traders have done the same thing). On the downside there are a series of closely positioned support levels beginning at 6660, then 6518-6481 and last-gasp support at 6428 - which must hold up today for Bitcoin bulls to stand any chance from here. This might make trading the break lower trickier than usual so will need to take care if trading this part of the range. But any failure to hold 6420 from this point today will likely flip Bitcoin down to 5887 next. So 6425 is most likely the point that swings and day traders are likely to start to short more aggressively when broken with stops either quite tight above, and no higher than 6620.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
6
BTCUSD: Trade-Points TodayBitcoin Sunday Update and Trade-Points The counter-rally high early yesterday morning reached 7678, just 5 points under the 7683 stop line as Bitcoin spent 24 hours moving sideways before plunging at midnight Gmt/19:00 Est as Japanese markets opened. US trading volumes have hit new lows, falling from 50% last year to 35% in April and now under 15% of trades are in dollars. The American retail buyer may return some day but for now Bitcoin's fate lies in Japanese and far Eastern hands. And sure enough, price barely moved all day yesterday until Tokyo opened at the zero hour. And as soon as it did, Bitcoin began to fall away again. So far the low today is 7268, a little below the 7281 support line on Bitmex but the rally is feeble and unlikely to get far above 7355-7385 range before falling away further to test the longer term dynamic which is now at the 7183 level. Any failure to hold this line during today will force Bitcoin lower still to 7056-7050 initially and then once this gives way to 6493 where it should attempt to bounce again. Shorts triggered on the break below 7579 line overnight can stay short for now looking to close out on the test of the longer term dynamic at 7183 and ready to enter short again once 7175 is broken with stops above 7200 looking for a retest of 7056 on Bitmex next, as above.
BITMEX:XBTShort
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD Sunday Chart Update and Key Trade-Points TodayBitcoin Sunday Chart Update and Key Trade Points So far this looks like a good Reverse/Inverse Head and Shoulders in classic formation with a perfect retest of the neck-line yesterday at 7600 (even more so because no one seems to have really mentioned it - the low today here is 7600 precisely). It carries with it a minimum implied upside target at 8163 on Bitfinex. But in the near term Bitcoin has made an 07:30gmt break higher from the 7644 line as it did yesterday too -before spending 24 hours moving sideways again. The new normal. Sheesh. Every break higher is getting faded now for hours and hours after the intial impulse. £0 minutes of action followed by 24 hours of continuation. Just like fishing on a slow day :( But this break today is still potentially significant. We now have a technical battle emerging between the power of the RHS on upside and the power of the upper dynamic of a loosely defined rising wedge-like formation on the downside, both in opposition to each-other, one a positive force and the other negative. So we can spend quite some time today in yet another continuation pattern with support at 7700 and extending to the lower parallel of the newly forming pattern from the intra-day high. Both these opposing patterns are powerful. Which pattern will prove stronger ? Well, so long as the dynamic which forms the lows of the right shoulder holds up on retests today the likelihood is that eventually the break will be higher and not lower. If so other than buying the dip to 7700 and below to 7768 and maybe to the 7644 line the only other option is to buy the break above the upper small falling dynamic from the intra-day high when and if it comes later on - need a volume spurt to follow it to know it's good - but the pattern is still overall positive at this point and the uppermost risng dynamic which capped the high today so far, is beginning to lose its power and on the 5th strike it should break too. That will open the way for a RHS to take control and begin to drive price towards the upside target at 8163. Returning to the downside Bitcoin has to break below the risng dynamic underpinning the lows of the right shoulder of the RHS to start flipping longs out back to 7644 and if this then fails to the neck-line itself again at 7600. This level must hold up throughout the day from here. Any failure by more than 15 points will flip Bitcoin back into bear hands, signalling ultimate failure of the RHS and trigger a short from this point with stops 50 points or so higher if struck later.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Friday Update and Trade PointsBTCUSD: Bitcoin Friday Update and Trade Points Bitcoin was expected to push higher during a long, slow but overall positive day yesterday - it was certainly long and slow but it didn't push much higher though. Once it broke below 7480 it was meant to fall to 7401 at lowest before bouncing away again to the upside. In the event the subsequent low fell at 7415 before Bitcoin began to rally again. Since the low Bitcoin is now back retesting the high of yesterday at 7599 on Coinbase. It should meet profit taking from day traders here in the nearterm and come back to 7550 and move sideways for a while. We've had 3 waves up in this counter-rally so far and each one is smaller though similar to the one before it. This rally as Europe opened is lame so far and lacking intent or any real interest. It will need more buyers again from 7550 and off the lower parallel at worst to stay positive today from here. Even if it can manage this there is the worry that there's not much upside potential left in what would be a 4th and final wave upwards. It needs a big green impulse candle to emerge on a break above 7600 to change that view. Yesterday it was Ok to buy the dip - today is less certain. The only weapon the bulls look to have left in their armoury is the potential for a sketchy RHS pattern to complete with a break above 7600 on a volume spike. Despite the resistance at 7638-7660 if this RHS is to have a chance of working out it should rally towards 7660 at first and then come back to test the neck-line at 7600 again. It must bounce away to the upside again from this point with more volume arriving to help it on its way. So if we see 7600 broken to the upside it's quite high risk following long - use a stop 20 to 30 points lower and if this potential break then lacks volume coming in right behind it don't hang about hoping, just close out again and look again as it comes back to the neck-line. The market is too uncertain for any gung-ho trades right now and there is resistance mounting from 7638 and 7662. But the RHS' right shoulder is a little better defined now after yesterday's price action and it has 600 points of upside potential if it can complete as above - so despite risks will be looking to trade it as the downside is only 20-30 points or so. But it is risky nonetheless. Returning to the downside initial support lies at 7550 followed by 7480. Any break below 7480 will force a retest of 7415-7390 range which when broken below will flip Bitcoin back into bear hands and trigger a short back to 7166 at a minimum if not to 7068.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
7
BTCUSD Bitcoin: Next Trade Points TodayBTCUSD: Bitcoin: Next Trade Points Bitcoin was expected to fall back to 7301 before bouncing away again. In the event it fell to an intra-day low at 7273 before the bounce came. Not great. Since then it's made a high at 7599 and extended to touch the upper end of the same (less acute) parallels that have been running inside the noise of the last 4 days or so. The near term picture is still more positive than negative at this point and Bitcoin should push higher still towards the next upside target at 7760-7817 as the day wears on. But in the near term it's a little over-extended and needs to consolidate again. Initial support lies at 7480- any failure here will likely create a fast retest of the 7401 line at lowest today. It must hold here off the lower rising parallel for the counter-rally to stay good from this point. If wrong at this point any eventual failure here at 7400 will turn the tables yet again and trigger another near term short back to 7166.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
GBPUSD: Month-End Update and next Trade Points from HereGBPUSD Update 31st May Month End Streling has fallen to the downside target at 1.3301 after a low at the old 1.3219 support line for a 150 pip or so profit. Eventually it should fall away further to the next support line at 1.3029 but in the near term the counter-rally is already pushing the upper dynamic at 1.3345. It should stop here really looking at this chart in isolation. But DXY looks like it has more unwinding to do in near term and so this could push higher still from here. The difficult bit in the immediate near term is figuring whether the near term reversal point is right here at 1.3345 or at the next line above here at 1.3462 - but it's going to fall away again from one of these two lines most likely and then test 1.3029 in June.
Short
by sumastardon
BTCUSD Bitcoin: Trade Points Today 11:34 Gmt 06:34 Est Bitcoin Coinbase Update OK. So a little a break higher to bust out bear stops around 7166 - stop hunters and bots! But at least a little continuation pattern looks to be forming now giving us break points either side of the smallest parallels . Only gets interesting again once we see a break either up or down - which we can follow with stops under 7166 if the break is higher, and more likely, above the lower smaller parallel of the continuation pattern on an eventual break lower. 12:59 Gmt 07:59EstBitcoin Coinbase Update That was a great break up to the next level at 7431 with spikes above the line to 7479 here. The rejection spikes are big though. It needs to unwind under the 7431 line . But on the bull side now we have the biggest green candle for ages - nothing to compare in the run down. This is more than a bear a bear squeeze. It's buying intent as well. So will be looking to buy again from lower down later * For up-dates in real-time for more active traders please see link at top-left of main page
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
5
WTI Near Term Topping FormationWTI: USOIL West Texas Intermediate Unlike on Brent chart there is only one clear and true reverse head and shoulders evident on the WTI chart (left shoulder not 'true' on the smaller one, yet so clearly evident on the Brent chart, please see companion forecast for UKOIL for comparison). So this chart is still forecasting longer term upward pressure to the eventual minimum upside target implied by the RHS at 84.82. However, in the nearer term WTI continues to flip within the 150 pip forecast range but due to Brent reaching a significant target point the lower end of the range at 71.30 on WTI is likley to give way at some point quite soon. If you've been playing this range over the last week it's holding right now at 150 pips off the high pretty much but not worth buying again here. It should fall away to 69.69 and if that then fails to the lower parallel at 66.81. Any subsequent failure from here on to hold on to that lower parallel will tip WTI back into bear territory - can then follow short again if we see it further out in time.
FX:USOILShort
by sumastardon