GBPJPY You know what to do!Trade Analysis based on price Action.
With risk management you will never loss.
thank you
TRADE-WAR
15 December, the US will implement tariffs on $156B on ChinaTo offset the additional tariffs the CNY would have to depreciate - although the Chinese authorities have said that they won't pursue quantitative easing.
If there is a formal announcement to suspend or delay the tariffs, the market would expect a more positive risk reaction and that is currently being priced in. WIth the USDCNY trading around the 6.90 and below the 7.00 psychological level that was key back in the summer.
If Phase one of the deal does not pass and the tariffs go-ahead, we would expect the USDCNY to trade above the 7.100
My paradoxical impeachment trade deal tradeReasons for the paradox in this trade:
Trump's impeachment is uneventful at this moment in time
Yet this impeachment may cost him his re-election creating a possibility for easier trade negotiations
With AUD off to the highs especially with there being good data today, let's see how far this thing goes
AUDEURDespite the RBA setting a dovish when it comes to all things $AUD this spike in price action has caught my eye, enough for me to justify a pre-emptive move in the name of $AUD strength.
Trump's impeachment at the house will not have an impact because the senate where Republicans hold the majority will not vote against their own political leader (well at least that is what the general consensus is); however this does not make Trump look good in the public eye and with elections around the corner this threatens his re-election prospects.
Which is enough to garner a few smiles across the pacific in China, where a scenario of Trump not in office would surely improve Chinas seat at the table of negotiations.
Coffee is on a rise! It must be the caffeine I have just closed out a +8% trade and I am going long again.
The initial fundamentals where:
Brazillian drought
US-China trade war increasing agriculture exports out of Brazil
Weak $BRLUSD
Although some of these fundamentals are starting to wane, the technicals continue to show that Coffee has more to go
SPX, VIX and SKEWThe movement of the SPX are reflected in the VIX (volatility index) but the signal seem to arrive when the SPX index is already too advanced in the retracement. The SKEW signals earlier on. The signal from SKEW starts with lower lows, then the volatility increases and SPX dips.
Sell when the SKEW starts hitting lower highs, then BUY when the VIX index is peaking.
Bearish Idea on FTSE China A50 by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
We observe that price has bounced at the Daily Top level and was rejected strongly. We are waiting for a breakout of the Ascending Trendline to take short positions here. In the short term, the potential targets are the Support Zone, and the main ascending Trendline.
Gold Short coming in upcoming sessionGold going to touch 1534 that is confirm by US-China trade talk in early october, If trade talk stay positive it will go more down.
XRP/BTC trade warThis trade war seems to be going Chains way. But that can only be sustained for so long. Another super power is on its way.
Prepares a long waited strong move is on the horizon, as XRP ledge will convey the gold trade with GBI not BTC
Scan my profile for free XLM and 10k Zi CCO Airdrop
Nzd.Chf Buy zoneNZD fundamentally is pretty weak, with all 5 of its major trading partners facing some form of political/financial upheaval. This is important to know because NZD economy is compromised in large part of its exports. However, data has shown that New Zealand has been becoming a favorable investment due to its free market policies that have kept the financial sector pretty solid.
China's market, which is affecting NZD the most and is her main trading partner, gateway at Hong Kong has seen protest that have been slowly turning more ambitious. This has helped NZD turn south, as well as the Chinese yuan. However with all eyes on Hong Kong from the international community I truly hope China will play it safe and back off a bit for a while.
BTC - Short updatePlease see previous idea for in more in depth logic.
As kind of expected, the price reached and rejected off the 4.618 advancement.
From here, BTC has the potential of turning bullish again once the daily crosses over the 2/1 line. Potentially within a couple days from now.
That could cause it to make another run at breaking 14k
But until a breakout is confirmed, the trend suggests bull trapping be happening.
Good luck!
SPX to crest over 3k and then down3045 is the magic number. This represents a 2.618 advancement from the 2009 low.
The 4.618 is 3953 so good chance we see 2500 and even 2100 before we see 4000.
My prediction is as follows:
SPX reaches and breaches 3000. Maybe gets as high as 3150 before pull back begins.
Green box - 2870 or so is short target #1
From here we will need to see what the market looks like, but if the trade war hasn't yet been resolved, the yellow and orange boxes can come into play.
SP500 could see 3300 by late October and here's howIn this video, I explain the basics of using Fibonacci, time application and geometry to predict the future.
TLDR: SP500 will hit 3045 and while it could reject here, it looks quite bullish and 3307 is worth betting on.
The rising wedge will break and we could see a December style dip around late April, early May 2020.
Getting to 3300 could be a slow melt up over the next few months, with a total break down in trade negotiations being a possible/likely catalyst for the break down.
BTFD will work for as long as the market believes the Fed can engineer the economy.
BTC $7200 short targetVery short term, might reach for $11,284 again before retracing.
BTC's meteoric rise over 3 months was driven primarily by the US/China trade war.
Institutional money was pouring into BTC as a hedge against US/China trade war. (not because Wall Street has finally seen the light or whatever)
Immediately following announcement of the "truce" following the G20 meeting, Bitcoin has been in retreat.
Expect the retreat to slowly continue until there is a re-flare up of trade tensions or some sort of escalation. This is also the period where Altcoins should bloom.
Targets:
$9500 is a given (green trend line)
$8500 around July 21 could signal a short term reversal to $9700 before continuing lower.
$7200 target - .618 retace - Sometime during August or September 2019
Red box:
Late October 2019 through End of year:
4800-6200 (orange box) possible Trump's reelection odds look down a year ahead of the election.
$3k and below as some people have been calling for also becomes possible in this scenario.
But, Trump is almost certainly going to be re-elected and BTC will ultimately head to the moon as a result.
From there, it's only a question of when the trade war escalates into a shooting war.
China plays the long game, so my guess is they will attack US around 2022-2025.
Expect BTC to be over a million by then and the entire financial landscape forever changed.
AMD Bullish, Long, Fib+EW PredictionsrThis is not financial advise. For entertainment purposes only. MY OPINION
AMD has had some good news, and solid growth despite the trade war between US and China. Finding support at the .618 Fib retracement at the end of a rising wedge, especially to end the week or month, could spark a full breakout to the ATH of $47.50. However, when adjusted for inflation, that is $70.64 in today's USD. I'm setting next targets to watch between $36 and $42 if resistance is successfully broken here. Of course, this is all bearing that AMD continues to have few issues and the company stays profitable. Anything can happen over the course of a few years.
BTC update and the week to comeThis an update to my previous ideas:
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin Dominace
---------
So, either way, BTC will reach all positive targets, it's only a question of which path it takes.
The short path (above green arrow trend line) or the medium path (below green arrow).
Thick red line is the decision line and I'm quite confident BTC will at least reach this level ($9000-93xx).
Positive talks or tweets however will likely be what sends BTC to .382 ($8136).
From there - support levels become
$8100
$7200
$6200
In this path, wave 3 of the larger impulse wave (blue elliot) will begin upon one of those supports with $6200 being the most likely reversal point.
USA vs China / TRADE WAR $USDCNH ... Cup & Handle pattern right there in the bigger picture.
We then got a rising wedge shorter term. Why? Look at the #TradeWar and it makes perfect sense. Wait for confirmations and you got a safe setup right there ! The Trade War is going on and it´s getting harder and harder every week for both the USA and China. So guess where this pair might go?
Look at the very least for a 1:1 ratio or much more.
#Forex #Trading #FX #Finance #Money #Investing
CHINA A50 Short Vision by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION
After the downside movement triggered by the Trade War price consolidated on a corrective pattern, and it may be finished. We will wait for a breakout of the structure to take short positions.
DAILY VISION:
NZDUSD BUY TRADE - TARGET 0.66800-WEEKLY TIMEFRAME HAMMER CLOSURE
-HAMMER AFTER 8 DAY BEARISH TREND\
-HELD AT DAILY PURPLE RESISTANCE AT 0.65150
-DAILY & H4 BREAK OUT OF BEARISH TREND
-NO LONGER SITTING BELOW MOVING AVERAGES ON H4 DAILT TIMEFRAMES
-FIB RETRACEMENTS WORK AS TARGET ZONES
estimating the time to buy hong kong stocksanalyzing from two perspective: time, angle and trend line, there should be still some time for the drop until it is time to safely buy hong kong stocks
US30 - Looking for SHORT? China over USA? - TRADE WAR - Looking for shorts. Overall strong /Head and Shoulders/ on D chart. In 4H chart we can see strong down move from 26700 and reflection at 25250. Putting a Fibonacci Retracement on those levels we see that it already pass 0.38 looking for 0.50, possiable 0.618.
Shorts from 0.50 and with same amount + 1/2 of the 0.50 volume at 0.618.
Happy Trading,
Cheers love the cavalry's here.
The stronger the U.S. Dollar the higher the odds of a recessionMultiyear relationship between the U.S. dollar's strength and the U.S. trade balance (the balance of payments)
