Morning Ideas January 31, 2022Morning Traders!
Welcome to a new week and a market fresh off a rally on friday. The market has bounced from 4400 overnight, and it's a key area to look at today.
I think 4550 area is in the crosshairs if we can sustain the rally and break higher out of this mini 'range' today.
Tradecontext
Morning Ideas December 17, 2021Morning Traders,
Big OPEX today at the open should provide another wild trade in the market. As I laid out in the video, it's been a tough market to wrap my head around. Back and forth whips based on FOMC and leveraged speculation has left me scratching my head more times than not.
I will be watching closely after the open to see if we can get a clear direction on the day, but from experience OPEX mornings are very tricky with a lot of head fakes.
Trade your plan and stay calm.
Morning Ideas December 16, 2021Good Morning Traders!
FED announced yesterday that it would speed up it's taper of the asset purchases and also likely hike interest rates in 2022.
The market took this as a sign of strength, and we rallied 100 points. After such a move, I don't know that there will be much more follow through just yet. I am leaning more towards sideways today, with an upwards skew.
I don't think it's wrong to be long here into the end of the year, as we will likely continue to push higher into 2022.
Morning Ideas December 13, 2021Good morning traders,
Likely a busy week this week, particularly after FOMC on Wednesday. For now, I expect to see some support around 4700, with critical support at 4650.
I would not expect the market to get that low today, if we fall back below 4700, I'd expect to see more chop, rather than freefall.
Good luck!
Morning Ideas December 8, 2021GOod mornign traders,
we had a really strong day yesterday as the buyers were back in after some covid fears subsiding.
This puts us up against a pretty strong resistance area at 4700, but that doesn't mean it can't break.
I feel like today is more of a balance day with a slight upward skew, as these strong momentum days have the tendency to continue, rather than reverse.
Morning Ideas December 6, 2021Good morning traders and welcome to a new week.
Challenging trade as we whipped about 110 points on Friday. As we are still in negative gamma territory (options) I would expect it be the same kind of noise in the market.
These markets are challenging in this high volatility environment. The biggest key here in my personal trading (I learned the hard way), is to make sure when the volatility shows up, I decrease my size and widen my stops. When I do this, I"m rather successful. WHen I don't, I die the death of 1000 cuts. You simply cannot trade with small stops in a whippy market and survive the normal ebbs and flows.
Im leaning slight long here, but I'm cautious because I feel like this is close to the middle.
Good luck this week, it's likely to be another roller coaster.
Morning Ideas December 3, 2021Good Morning Traders,
NFP report was not good this morning, but the market took it as a positive (so far). You can watch the video for an explanation of why, in my opinion.
What we are left with is a market that seems to have caught a bid. I would expect us to continue to try to squeeze higher.
While I think the squeeze higher is the likely scenario, if we do turn back lower, I think that is a bad omen for this market. We have just rejected lower prices, we certainly don't want to see the market return back to those levels.
I'm going to be looking for longs, and I expect the volatility to be lower today than it has been in recent days.
Good luck guys.
Morning Ideas November 29, 2021Good morning traders,
I am back and refreshed after about a week away from the screens. Usually thanksgiving week is pretty slow, with an upward skew, but boy that wasn't the case last week.
I don't expect the fear of the new Covid variant to keep the markets down for long, I just think the market had to price-in something that wasn't previously priced in. This is most likely why we got the selloff last week.
It is pretty thick above us, but I would expect the market to eat through a lot of that volume as we try to get back to the "scene of the news crime" which is around 4700.
Full disclosure, I did not create that phrase, that was coined by FuturesTrader71.
Morning Ideas November 16, 2021Good morning traders,
Market is still in this area that it has been for the last 2.5 full sessions. I would imagine that we continue to chop around in here before likely breaking higher later in the week.
In these markets it's paramount to stick with your plan as it gets choppy. Many times I see traders get chopped to pieces here and the market closes at the same price it opened.
Good luck!
Morning Ideas November 15, 2021Good morning traders!
I will be brief today, have to get the kids to school!
4695 is right above and heavily traded before. I expect us to go towards that price and start to chop around. This will be a big area this week as we have monthly options expiring on Friday.
I would expect us to leave this area at that point.
Good luck, reach out with any questions.
Morning Ideas November 11, 2021Good morning traders,
Getting these out to you righit after the open so I will be brief.
Wild day yesterday as the inflation numbers made the market a bit jittery, seeing high volatility up and down. I would expect to see more of the same. I don't expect us to go that far today, but I don't think it will be a one sided trade.
Good luck.
Morning Ideas November 10, 2021Good morning Traders,
CPI numbers came in higher than expected and the algos pushed the market down immediately.
For me this is a wait and see kind of market because the big players will likely be involved at the opening bell. It's tough to trade against these traders because they can push the market far and fast, leaving the small fish wondering what is going on.
This may not turn into anything, but I believe the open will be noisy.
Good luck
Morning Ideas November 9, 2021Good morning traders,
Market not doing a whole lot, just ranging in a beautifully balanced way.
I think the higher probability is that it resolves itself higher when we leave this area. When that will be, nobody knows.
Don't get flushed out while the market is chopping around in the middle of balance.