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Morning Ideas November 1, 2021Good morning traders and welcome to a new week and a new month. Market has continued it's strength overnight and we are looking for 4590 on a pullback to get long. Problem is, this market hasn't always pulled back to retest. If it doesn't, we are left with a market consolidating at all time highs. While this has been the norm, it's pretty difficult to trade. This is more of a buy and hold kind of market. If you've stayed long, you've had some losing days sprinkled in, and even a losing week a few weeks back. However, you would be wildly profitable by having wide stops and staying long.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TakeProfitTrader
1
Morning Ideas October 28, 2021Morning Traders, We saw some of the weak longs get flushed out yesterday at the close, as we ran into some pretty stiff support underneath in the 4550 area. I would expect the 4550 area to be pretty key today, as I think the longs will begin to throw in the towel around 4540 and not be that interested to re-try the longs until near 4500. 4500 in that scenario would become HUGE as the market is vulnerable beneath that. On the upside, I would look to see if the market can get back to 4565-67 area. If we can, the market is back in that upper distribution and I would expect it to climb towards 4590. Two scenarios, I think the more likely scenario is the second, but as you guys all know, I'm a perma bull in this market :)
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TakeProfitTrader
1
Morning Ideas October 26, 2021Hey traders, Lots and lots of people told me I was dumb for saying the market would likely continue higher when we were in the big whippy consolidation and the market was having trouble to holding onto higher prices. The reason I thought that was due to the unlimited FED intervention, which I expected would continue, and has continued. Now we are left with a market that is just crawling higher, a couple hundred points higher than the area we were in just a few weeks ago. I would look for this to continue into the holidays. Important to note that this statement doesn't mean the market CAN'T go down, it just means that it's likely just temporary and the more probable scenario is a market that crawls higher into the new year.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TakeProfitTrader
1
Morning Ideas October 18, 2021Welcome to a new week traders, I would expect some consolidation up here today and then a continuation. Hard to tell when that continuation will come, but I would look at the level of 4408 underneath as the place where I wouldn't want to be looking for longs anymore. Think of that level as the give up point (for me). I am staying long here to try and be long from the lower end of the consolidation. Own your trading plan and trade it. Let's get it.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TakeProfitTrader
1
Morning Ideas October 13, 2021Morning Traders... Another FOMC announcement to watch for today at 2pm eastern. Market is stuck to 4350 with low-ish volume, which is showing a 'wait and see' approach. If i'm looking at a profile for the month or so, it appears there is some room to fill in the profile lower. I am not sure that we will do that, but I certainly dont want to be fading a move out of this area today. This market is wound up and ready to explode. I think the catalyst for that will be the minutes, but it could certainly be before that. As usual, when we expect volatility the best practice is to shrink your size and widen your stops. This will help you keep from getting flushed out on random 20 point swings in each direction. I'm leaning short today.
CME_MINI:ESZ2021Short
by TakeProfitTrader
1
Morning Ideas October 12, 2021Hey Traders! Market still feels heavy even though we are trading in this big developing zone. Yesterday was another day that we attempted higher in the AM and were unable to hold on, just to see the market come falling back almost 100 points from top to bottom. I think the volatility is here to stay and we will continue to see the large swings like we did yesterday. I am going to take a neutral stance here as we are in the middle of the zone.
CME_MINI:ESZ2021
by TakeProfitTrader
1
Morning ideas September 29, 2021Hey Traders, Market hit value low from the last time we were down here, and is chopping around a bit now. I would be very careful of another move lower below the 30 area. Remember that it's the end of month and end of quarter flows that need to be accounted for in the next two days. The month has been negative and the quarter has been marginally positive, so not sure if it carries as much weight as usual. However, be mindful that we see EOM and EOQ buying usually. Today I think is a bit more of a non-directional sideways trade. I really wanted to say "Long" just for the TradingView trolls, but I won't waste my time :)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TakeProfitTrader
1
Morning Ideas September 28, 2021Hey traders, Weakness overnight I think puts us in a tough spot here. I expect to see some buyers try to defend 4390-4400 area. If they are not able to do so, I would look for a nasty down move. We are in negative gamma territory in Nasdaq and we are seeing a shift out of big tech and into the 10 year note. What does that mean for us? Well, if NQ can sustain weakness we could get some forced margin selling, which can influence SP500 futures as well. This is not a doomsday prediction, as I am long myself here. However, I would be careful under 4390. I have my stops around 4380 just so I'm far enough away that I won't get hurt too bad if the market goes south today.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TakeProfitTrader
4